Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in December, reversing their previous forecast of a delay until January [1] - The research team led by Michael Feroli noted support for recent rate cuts from several Federal Reserve officials, particularly from New York Fed President Williams [1] - Morgan Stanley now expects two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December and January [1] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Berenberg Bank indicates that the UK's fiscal space has increased, which supports the possibility of rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] - Deutsche Bank reports that the UK budget is better than expected, with fiscal buffers increasing from £10 billion to just below £22 billion, and public borrowing expected to decline [3] - BlackRock analysts believe the UK budget will boost market confidence and alleviate political concerns, with the government expanding fiscal space to £22 billion [2] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley has ended its bullish stance on the British pound, suggesting that the recent budget may have provided the last positive catalyst for the currency [3] - Analysts noted that the correlation between the pound and the stock market has dropped to zero, diminishing the currency's appeal [3] Group 4: Japan's Economic Policy - Fitch Ratings warns that Japan's new stimulus plan could pose risks to its credit rating if it leads to prolonged monetary easing and increased government debt [4] - The stimulus plan, amounting to approximately 3.4% of GDP, has uncertain fiscal impacts due to its reliance on non-fiscal measures and potential implementation risks [4] - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that political factors may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike until January [4] Group 5: Industry Insights - China Galaxy Securities forecasts a "bumpy" trend for the computer industry in 2025, with a focus on AI applications and the acceleration of model parity by 2026 [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates downward pressure on beef supply by 2026, with a cumulative reduction in stock exceeding 10% since 2024 [6] - CITIC Securities has raised its lithium price forecast upper limit to 120,000 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand in the energy storage battery sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of selecting leading AI application companies under the AI-First paradigm, focusing on five key areas: edge AI, AI creative and content generation tools, enterprise-level AI agents, vertical industry expert AI agents, and AI-native social and companionship applications. The report highlights the expanding supply-demand gap in domestic computing power and continues to recommend leading domestic AI computing power companies [1]. Industry Overview - The computer industry in 2025 shows a trend of "initial rise followed by decline and oscillation," with the industry index up 19.57% year-to-date as of November 18, outperforming the CSI 300 index. The first three quarters of 2025 saw a slight revenue recovery with a 9.13% year-on-year revenue growth and a 38.25% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders. However, the gross margin decreased by 1.19%, while the net margin increased by 0.50%. The accounts receivable turnover rate grew by 8.17%. The current valuation of the computer industry index is above the historical ten-year average, with a PE (TTM) of 87.97 times and a PS (TTM) of 3.62 times [1]. 2026 Industry Outlook - The trend of model parity is accelerating, with the penetration rate of domestic computing power continuing to rise. Domestic large models are increasingly adopting open-source routes, with 9 out of the top 20 large models being domestic, reflecting a nearly 50% share. The average API price for domestic models is 3.88 yuan per million tokens, significantly lower than the 20.46 yuan per million tokens for overseas models. The demand for domestic AI chips is expected to grow rapidly due to strong demand for inference computing power and U.S. restrictions on high-end chips, further widening the supply-demand gap [2]. AI Agent Development - The AI Agent sector is expected to see a structural acceleration in implementation by 2026. Current challenges include a mismatch between technological maturity and commercialization pace, with 90% of AI Agents achieving over 70% accuracy but only 66% meeting autonomy standards. The high cost of enterprise-level agents compared to general large models limits large-scale deployment. However, structural opportunities are emerging, with enterprise-level agents transitioning from "L2 popularization" to "L3 integration," and the implementation rate in financial risk control and customer service quality inspection exceeding 40% [3]. AI-First Paradigm - The shift towards AI-First applications is driven by the need to internalize AI capabilities into product architectures rather than treating them as additional features. This approach will determine the survival of AI application companies in the next competitive round. A three-dimensional verification system is proposed to identify AI-First companies, focusing on qualitative aspects (data loop capabilities, AI R&D investment over 15%, AI technical background of core teams), quantitative health of AI business (over 50% revenue growth, gross margin above 40%, customer repurchase rate over 80%), and barriers to entry (exclusive scenario data, patent reserves, deep industry know-how) [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the AI inference market, leveraging its "algorithm-chip" integration to develop products across consumer, enterprise, and industry segments [10][24]. - The AI inference chip market in China is projected to grow from 11.3 billion to 162.6 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, with a CAGR of 94.9% [3]. - The company has secured significant orders, including 1.607 billion yuan in AI computing service contracts, indicating strong market demand [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Full Industry Chain Development - The company utilizes "algorithm + chip" as a foundational advantage to expand sales of AI products and solutions across three scenarios: consumer, enterprise, and industry [10]. - The company has established a stable shareholding structure, with the chairman holding 25.27% of the shares, ensuring strong governance [15]. 2. Expanding Inference Market - The AI inference market is expected to see continuous expansion, driven by advancements in large model technologies and increasing investment in the AI sector [24][25]. - The company has developed the Deepseek R1 model, which demonstrates that software innovations can compensate for hardware limitations, thus promoting overall industry growth [2][48]. 3. Application Scenarios - The company is expanding its product offerings in consumer-grade applications, including AI-enabled devices like smart glasses and educational tools [55]. - In the enterprise sector, the company focuses on inference chips to support cloud, edge, and terminal business scenarios, enhancing its service offerings [65]. 4. Revenue Growth and Profitability - The company is entering a high growth phase, with projected revenues of 1.285 billion, 1.584 billion, and 1.936 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The company is expected to reduce losses significantly, with net profits projected to improve from -579 million yuan in 2024 to -259 million yuan in 2027 [5]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts significant revenue growth driven by the company's comprehensive AI strategy and product development across various market segments [3][5]. - The company is expected to achieve a PS ratio of 23X, 19X, and 15X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating strong valuation potential [3].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is not just a technological shift but a significant transformation in civilization, with implications for investment opportunities and industry dynamics [1][6]. Group 1: AI Industry Developments - The appointment of a digital minister in Albania marks a historic moment in governance, showcasing the integration of AI into political structures [1]. - Elon Musk predicts that by 2026, AI will surpass human intelligence in key metrics, indicating an approaching technological singularity [3]. - China's State Council has issued a strategic document to implement AI, elevating it to a national priority and signaling a shift from isolated advancements to comprehensive integration [1][12]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The 华夏上证科创板人工智能ETF (589010) tracks the 上证科创板人工智能指数 (950180.CSI), which has seen a year-to-date increase of nearly 58% and a one-year increase of 167.46% [2][15]. - The ETF serves as a vehicle for investing in core AI assets, capitalizing on the growth of the AI industry amid significant policy and technological support [2][14]. - The index comprises 30 large-cap stocks, focusing on key segments of the AI value chain, enhancing its potential for capturing investment returns [14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global AI industry is experiencing unprecedented growth, with China's AI market projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2029, driven by a compound annual growth rate of 32.1% [7]. - The competition in AI is intensifying, with major tech companies racing to innovate and improve their AI models, leading to a rapid evolution in capabilities [4][5]. - The AI landscape is shifting from a focus on individual technological breakthroughs to a comprehensive ecosystem approach, with significant implications for global competitiveness [5][11]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The emergence of large models like DeepSeek signifies a breakthrough in AI technology, enabling cost-effective and high-performance solutions that challenge international counterparts [8][10]. - The integration of AI into various sectors is accelerating, with significant advancements in computational power and model iteration rates [9][10]. - The Chinese AI industry is characterized by a unique growth formula that combines industrial foundation, innovation capacity, and talent reserves, positioning it for future success [11].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The AI is transitioning from the "human data era" to the "experience era," as highlighted by Richard Sutton, the 2024 ACM Turing Award winner. Current AI large model training relies on human-generated data, but the depletion of high-quality data necessitates a shift towards interaction with the world [5][9] - The evolution of large models is predicted to progress from large language models to native models and eventually to world models, with a distinction between digital and physical worlds in AGI development [10] - The capabilities of large models are continuously improving, with major companies like OpenAI and Google regularly updating their models. However, practical applications in real-world scenarios remain limited, indicating a focus on enhancing AI's problem-solving abilities through interaction with the physical world [11] Summary by Sections AI Technology Progress - AI technology advancements are expected to create investment opportunities across four areas: 1. Infrastructure for computing power, with a focus on domestic GPU ecosystems [12] 2. Software development for edge AI applications, emphasizing the importance of end-user devices [12] 3. Innovations in productivity tools, which could lower professional barriers and reduce repetitive tasks [12] 4. Information technology innovations in industries like finance, law, education, healthcare, and automotive, with key players connecting foundational model providers and industry clients [12]