12月4日，石化ETF（159731）震荡走低，现跌幅为0.36%。持仓股藏格矿业、金发科技、光威复材 等涨幅居前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续9个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸金"2550万 元。石化ETF最新份额达2.42亿份，最新规模2.02亿元，均创成立以来新高。 天风证券认为，处于投产周期尾声，行业有望从局部改善到全面复苏。2026年多数石化产品投产增 速明显下降，在此基础上，产能利用率偏高的行业有望率先改善，如PX、涤纶长丝、甲醇、醋酸、 MEG等；而烯烃产能投放虽有放缓，但仍有一定产能增速，且当前产能利用率仍有一定提升空间，因 此烯烃改善或相对滞后。进入2027-2028年，行业新产能增速进一步下滑，且在石化高准入壁垒的情况 下，行业护城河进一步巩固，行业有望从点状复苏过渡至全面改善。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行 业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.39%，石油石化行业占比为32.71%。石化行业新一轮产能扩张周 期步入尾声，供需格局进入再平衡阶段，行业景气度预期将逐步回升。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Yangzhou Municipal Government has released a comprehensive implementation plan aimed at accelerating economic and social development through a full green transition, aligning with national and provincial policies on green transformation [5][17]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The plan emphasizes the importance of adhering to Xi Jinping's economic and ecological civilization thoughts, aiming for a green, low-carbon, high-quality development path, with significant progress expected in key areas by 2030 and a fully established green economy by 2035 [6][19]. Group 2: Key Tasks - The plan outlines several key tasks, including the development of green low-carbon industrial clusters, the upgrade of traditional industries, and the promotion of green low-carbon services [8][19]. - Specific targets include the establishment of 20 zero-carbon factories and a scale of the energy-saving and environmental protection industry reaching approximately 20 billion yuan by 2030 [8][19]. Group 3: Energy Transition - The plan aims to optimize clean and low-carbon energy supply, focusing on the efficient use of coal and the development of non-fossil energy sources, with a target of 10 million kilowatts of renewable energy generation capacity by 2030 [9][19]. - It also emphasizes the construction of a new power system that integrates energy sources, networks, loads, and storage [14][20]. Group 4: Infrastructure Upgrades - The plan includes initiatives for green building development, mandating that new public buildings meet specific green standards and achieve a photovoltaic coverage rate of over 50% by 2030 [9][14]. - Transportation infrastructure will also undergo a green transition, with a focus on enhancing electric vehicle charging networks and promoting the use of electric vessels [9][20]. Group 5: Resource Efficiency - The plan promotes resource conservation and efficiency, including strict water resource management and the promotion of recycling and waste reduction initiatives [11][21]. - By 2030, the plan aims for a recycling volume of approximately 4.5 million tons of major renewable resources [21]. Group 6: Technological Innovation - The plan emphasizes the importance of research and development in green technologies, including new energy vehicles and advanced photovoltaic cells, to support the green transition [10][19]. - It also aims to enhance the commercialization of green technology innovations through various collaborative projects [10][15]. Group 7: Green Consumption - The plan encourages the adoption of green consumption practices among the public, promoting energy-saving behaviors and the use of sustainable products [16][19]. - Initiatives will include campaigns for the replacement of old consumer goods with greener alternatives and the promotion of organic agricultural products [16][19]. Group 8: Policy Framework - The plan outlines the need for a robust policy framework to support green transformation, including the establishment of green standards and financial incentives for sustainable practices [18][22]. - It aims to enhance market mechanisms for resource allocation and promote participation in carbon trading markets [22].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 World Intelligent Manufacturing Conference opened in Nanjing, where 15 leading intelligent factories, including Zoomlion, jointly released an initiative to outline a new blueprint for intelligent manufacturing development. Zoomlion has been recognized for overcoming challenges in the heavy equipment industry and establishing a world-class collaborative intelligent factory cluster for construction machinery, representing the highest level of Chinese manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Intelligent Factories - The 15 leading intelligent factories span various industries, including equipment manufacturing, raw materials, electronic information, and consumer goods [2]. - In the equipment manufacturing sector, notable factories include Shanghai Aerospace Equipment Manufacturing Factory, XCMG Heavy Machinery, Weichai, and Zoomlion's excavator sharing manufacturing intelligent factory [2][3]. - Zoomlion's excavator sharing manufacturing intelligent factory boasts an AI technology application rate exceeding 80%, achieving a production cycle of just 6.5 days from steel plate cutting to complete machine delivery, with a production rhythm of one excavator every six minutes, marking the shortest core indicators in the global construction machinery sector [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The engineering machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with improved sales data for excavators and loaders anticipated in 2025 [5][6]. - The industry is transitioning to "National IV" standards starting December 1, indicating regulatory changes that may impact production and sales [5]. - Domestic sales have seen a continuous decline for 13 months, while exports have surged over 70%, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [5].

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued the "Quota Plan" for the national carbon emission trading market, focusing on the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for the years 2024 and 2025 [1] - The plan emphasizes a dynamic linkage between enterprise quota and actual output, without setting an absolute cap on carbon emissions, ensuring necessary development space for industries [2] - The carbon quota distribution will target the most carbon-intensive production enterprises, which account for over 98% of emissions in their respective sectors [2] Group 1 - The "Quota Plan" outlines the allocation and management of carbon quotas for key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, with the first quota compliance expected within the year [1] - Industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and paper-making are in the preparatory phase for inclusion in the carbon trading market, aiming for comprehensive coverage by 2027 [1][6] - The plan encourages companies to optimize production processes and adopt low-carbon technologies, such as electric arc furnaces and hydrogen reduction methods, to achieve deeper decarbonization [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is enhancing the management of carbon emission data quality, which is crucial for the national carbon market's construction [4] - Measures include improving the accounting and reporting verification system, and encouraging companies to innovate data quality management techniques using technologies like blockchain and IoT [4][5] - Following the market expansion in 2025, it is expected that 1,500 new key emission units will be added, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions [4] Group 3 - The expansion of the carbon trading market will be conducted in a phased manner, based on the maturity of each industry and the quality of data available [6][7] - The Ministry aims to gradually include additional sectors, with a target for the carbon trading market to cover major industrial emission sectors by 2027 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: The PXN continues to widen, with a high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on BZ and the 5 - 9 calendar spread. PX supply is expected to contract, and demand from PTA is rising. PX - MX spread widens, and PXN has risen significantly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance under high profits [1][4]. - PTA: It is in a single - sided high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA and the 5 - 9 calendar spread. Be vigilant against the negative feedback in the industrial chain due to early terminal holidays from late December to early January [1][5]. - MEG: Hold the position of going long on MEG and short on PTA. The unilateral price fluctuates in the range of 3800 - 4000, with the upside space not yet opened. Pay attention to the positive calendar spread. Overall supply of ethylene glycol is tightening, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures are 6908, 4730, 3822, 6284, and 448.1 respectively, with changes of - 4, - 22, - 55, - 20, and - 5.7 and percentage changes of - 0.06%, - 0.46%, - 1.42%, - 0.32%, and - 1.26% [2]. - **Futures Month - spreads**: PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 closing prices are - 36, - 66, - 104, - 114, and 0.3 respectively, with changes of - 6, 0, 1, - 14, and 0.8 [2]. - **Spot**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, Naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent are 848.33 dollars/ton, 4705 yuan/ton, 3829 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, and 64.18 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 2.34, - 15, - 47, - 5.25, and - 0.04 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - Naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread are 265.33, 159.83, 226.6, 79.25, and - 4.23 respectively, with changes of 5, - 39.41, 9.65, 8.6, and 0.11 [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: The price of naphtha rebounded in the late session. The PX price declined today, with two January Asian spot transactions at 847 and one February Asian spot at 849. The estimated PX price is 848 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars from yesterday [3]. - **MEG**: The price center of ethylene glycol declined, and market negotiation was average. The spot price of ethylene glycol dropped to below 3810 yuan/ton, and the external market price trended weakly. There were transactions for near - term and end - of - December/early - January shipments [3]. Polyester - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were slightly differentiated, with an average sales rate estimated to be below 40% by 3:30 pm. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 47% by 3:00 pm [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **PX**: Domestic operating rate is maintained at 88.5% (- 1%), with Sinochem Quanzhou under maintenance. GS and Zhejiang Petrochemical have future maintenance plans, so PX supply is expected to shrink. PTA operating rate has increased to 73.7% (+ 1.6%) [4]. - **PTA**: The PTA load has been adjusted to 73.7% (+ 1.6%) due to the restart and load increase of some devices. Polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+ 0.2%) [5]. - **MEG**: Coal - based ethylene glycol load is expected to further increase, and oil - based device (Shenghong Refining 100 - million - ton device) has a maintenance plan. Iranian overseas devices have been shut down, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally [5].

着眼夯实"基本盘"，优化提升传统产业。《建议》提出，推动冶金、化工、纺织服装、建筑建材等传统 优势产业高端提质、数智赋能、绿色转型。这些行业是山东的厚实家底，将坚持先立后破，优布局、调 结构，提高先进产能占比，进一步巩固提升山东作为全国重要工业基地的地位。比如，钢铁行业，将全 力打造日-临、莱-泰两大精品钢基地，建设永锋钢焦一体化等支撑性项目，沿海粗钢产能占比将由目前 的53%提高到65%以上，千万吨级钢铁企业达到3家，高端精品钢占比突破50%。再比如，石化行业，按 照"减量、整小、上大，减油、增化、延链"的总体思路，推进实施东明石化炼化一体化等重大石化项 目，力争千万吨级炼油产能、炼化一体化产能占比均达到60%以上，推动产业实现由大到强的战略性转 变。 着眼构筑"强引擎"，培育壮大新兴产业。新兴产业成长潜力大、效益好，《建议》将其作为发展新质生 产力的主阵地。一方面，着力打造新兴支柱产业，推动集成电路、新能源、新材料、生物医药等产业提 质扩量；在这些重点领域，山东已布局50个战略性新兴产业集群，有10个产值规模突破千亿，将集中要 素资源，进一步做大做强。另一方面，培育富有潜能的特色产业，着力打造低空经济发展 ...

【交易策略】 预计PX震荡运行，PTA震荡运行，PR震荡运行。 | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/4 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/桶 | 58.95 | 58.64 | 0.53% | | | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/桶 | 62.67 | 62.45 | 0.35% | | 上 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/吨 | 562.00 | 567.25 | -0.93% | | 游 | | | | 706.00 | 709.50 | | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/12/3 | | 美元/吨 | | | -0.49% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/12/3 | 美元/吨 | 848.00 | 849.67 | -0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The incident involving Guangxi Hengyi New Materials Co., a subsidiary of Hengyi Petrochemical, highlights the dangers of extreme management practices that undermine workers' rights and freedoms, as evidenced by a controversial slogan displayed at the factory entrance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Actions and Reactions - The company displayed a slogan stating "Please voluntarily give up all freedom upon entering the factory," which sparked significant public outrage and was subsequently removed after police intervention [2]. - The local enforcement agency stated that they could only request the company to rectify the situation, indicating a lack of proactive regulatory measures [2]. Group 2: Management Practices and Worker Rights - The slogan reflects a troubling mindset that prioritizes corporate authority over individual rights, raising concerns about the normalization of extreme management tactics in some companies [3][4]. - Such practices, often justified under the guise of "militarized management" or "wolf culture," include unreasonable restrictions on employee behavior, which erode workers' dignity and legal rights [3]. Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Framework - Labor laws, including the Labor Contract Law and the Production Safety Law, clearly outline the obligations of employers and the rights of employees, emphasizing that basic rights remain protected even in closed management environments [4]. - The incident underscores the need for a more robust and proactive regulatory framework to protect workers' rights, as the current oversight appears reactive rather than preventive [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is strategically expanding its overseas market presence in response to the closure of several petrochemical facilities in Europe, which has created opportunities for its products like acrylic acid and superabsorbent polymers [2]. Group 1: Market Context - Several petrochemical companies in Europe have shut down old facilities due to high costs, low demand, and the age of the plants, leading to a significant reduction in ethylene production capacity [2]. - As of April 2024, six European cracking plants are expected to close, resulting in a reduction of approximately 4.3 million tons per year in ethylene capacity, which accounts for about 20% of Europe's total ethylene capacity [2]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Performance - The company is seizing the opportunity presented by the market changes to accelerate its overseas market expansion [2]. - The company’s exports of acrylic acid and esters, superabsorbent polymers, ethanolamines, and polyether monomers are among the top in the domestic market [2].

Core Insights - The government of Weifang has implemented a series of policies to promote the high-quality development of the private economy, which has significantly enhanced the overall strength, vitality, and competitiveness of private enterprises since the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] Group 1: Economic Scale and Contribution - Weifang's private economy consists of over 1.464 million market entities, accounting for 10.2% of the province, with an increase of 310,000 entities since 2020, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.8% [1] - The private sector contributes over 80% of the city's investment, tax revenue, and imports and exports, with 99.2% of market entities being private, and the private economy accounting for 63% of the GDP [1] Group 2: Enterprise Strength and Industry Support - There are 410,000 private enterprises in Weifang, with significant growth among key companies such as Hongrun, Goer, and Haomai, and over 95% of the 1,459 manufacturing champions and specialized small giants being private [2] - Weifang ranks third in the province for the number of private enterprises in the top 500 and second for those in the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Development - The number of high-tech private enterprises and registered technology-based SMEs in Weifang exceeds 2,100 and 3,600 respectively, with 952 provincial-level innovation platforms mostly led by private enterprises [2] - The contribution of high-tech industries to the city's output value increased from 52.26% in 2020 to 61.39%, surpassing the provincial average by 6.18 percentage points [2] Group 4: Social Contributions and Employment - Private enterprises in Weifang play a significant role in social contributions, particularly in job creation, providing over 90% of employment opportunities in the city [3] - The local government has prioritized the development of the private economy, implementing various supportive measures to enhance service and guarantee for private enterprises [3][4] Group 5: Policy Environment and Investment - The government has introduced 20 policies to boost the private economy and 30 policies to assist enterprises, addressing barriers to market access and resource acquisition [3] - Private investment in Weifang accounts for 83.9%, leading the province by 20.94 percentage points, with continuous top rankings in investment attraction indicators for four consecutive years [3][4] Group 6: Business Ecosystem and Service Quality - Weifang has a robust industrial ecosystem with 18 private enterprises generating over 10 billion yuan in revenue, and 25 national champions in specific sectors [4] - The local government has initiated a reform project to optimize the business environment, achieving significant improvements in service quality and efficiency for enterprises [4][5] Group 7: Entrepreneurial Atmosphere - High-profile events and initiatives have been organized to honor and engage entrepreneurs, fostering a supportive environment for private enterprises [5][6] - The local government emphasizes respect and support for private enterprises, enhancing their political and social standing [6]