Market Insights - The US ADP employment numbers unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with a prior expectation of an increase of 98,000. The revised May data showed an increase of only 29,000 [1][2] - A group of billionaires from Silicon Valley has applied for a charter bank license in the US, aiming to establish a national bank focused on supporting startups in the cryptocurrency sector [1] - The UN reported that 2023 has seen some of the most extensive and destructive droughts on record, highlighting severe challenges posed by climate change and resource pressures [1] Economic Indicators - Australia's retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month in May, recovering from zero growth in the previous month but falling short of the market expectation of 0.5% [3] - South Korea's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.2% year-on-year in June, surpassing the market expectation of 2.1% and marking a return to above 2% inflation after two months [4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.56% to $3,368.7 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.08% to $36.79 per ounce [6] - Light crude oil futures for August delivery increased by $2.00 to $67.45 per barrel, a rise of 3.06%, while Brent crude oil futures for September delivery also rose by $2.00 to $69.11 per barrel, up 2.98% [6] Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index fell by 0.05% to 96.777, with the euro trading at 1.1800 against the dollar, up from 1.1781, and the British pound at 1.3636, down from 1.3738 [7] - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1670 against the dollar, down 52 basis points from the previous trading day [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The introduction of the new heated non-combustible (HNB) products, Glo Hilo and Glo Hilo Plus, by British American Tobacco (BAT) in Japan is expected to drive growth in the HNB market, which is projected to reach a retail value of $389 billion by 2024 [4][11] - The Hilo product has received positive feedback during its trial phase, indicating a potential for rapid sales growth as it enters the broader Japanese market [10] - The global tobacco industry is nearing a trillion-dollar valuation, with new tobacco products expected to capture a larger market share as companies pivot towards harm reduction strategies [11] Industry Trends - The HNB market is anticipated to grow significantly, with BAT and other major tobacco companies increasing their focus on HNB products to facilitate a transition to smoke-free alternatives [11] - The market share for HNB products is currently dominated by Philip Morris International (71%), followed by British American Tobacco (16%) and Japan Tobacco (6%) [11] - The report suggests monitoring companies linked to BAT's HNB products, such as Smoore International, and other key players in the new tobacco product space [11] Market Performance - The report notes that the retail index increased by 4.56% during the week of June 23 to June 27, 2025, while the overall market indices also showed positive performance [12][14] - Year-to-date performance for the retail index stands at a 9.49% increase, indicating a favorable market environment for the retail sector [12][16] Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for various companies within the industry, highlighting their market capitalization, earnings projections, and investment ratings [18] - Notable companies such as Proya (P/E of 21), Betaini (P/E of 37), and Marubi (P/E of 48) are recommended for investment, indicating strong growth potential [18]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector in China is currently facing challenges due to a lack of growth engines, but there are signs of recovery driven by export growth and improvements in domestic economic activities. [1][4] - **Retail Sector**: The retail sector is experiencing supply surplus and insufficient demand, necessitating a focus on new demand opportunities, including traditional channel transformations and the rise of instant retail. [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Recovery**: The recovery of exports is expected to positively impact domestic economic activities and consumption, with a notable rebound in personal income tax indicating a gradual recovery in residents' income. [1][4] - **Investment Strategy**: In July, the investment strategy should avoid liquidity-driven assets and focus on service consumption and high-turnover goods that are less affected by liquidity pressures. [1][4] - **New Consumption Trends**: New consumption is identified as a key growth driver for the next two to three years, emphasizing the creation of new consumption scenarios and business models, particularly in high-turnover and low-leverage service consumption. [1][5][6] Specific Areas of Focus - **Service Consumption**: Investment opportunities in the consumer sector are concentrated in emotional value consumption (e.g., trendy toys, pets) and functional value consumption (e.g., AI-related products). [6] - **Cross-Border Trade**: Companies engaged in cross-border trade should focus on supply chain management, brand premium capabilities, and channel premium capabilities due to tightening trade policies. [8] - **E-commerce Performance**: The 2025 618 e-commerce promotion met expectations, with Douyin's growth exceeding forecasts, highlighting a trend of collaboration across platforms. Instant retail channels performed exceptionally well during this event. [9][10] Additional Important Insights - **Tobacco Industry**: The tobacco industry is showing a stable upward trend, with new products like Glohilo from British American Tobacco expected to perform well in Japan. [3][11][12] - **Home Appliances**: The home appliance sector is expected to see double-digit growth driven by national policy support, with leading companies using pricing strategies to enhance market share. [3][22] - **Household Goods**: The household goods sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate alpha capabilities. [3][13] - **Competition in Cleaning Appliances**: The competition in the cleaning appliance sector is easing, benefiting companies like Roborock and Ecovacs, with expectations of rising industry profit margins. [3][20] Conclusion The conference call highlighted the complexities and opportunities within various sectors of the Chinese economy, particularly in consumer and retail markets. The focus on new consumption trends, service-oriented products, and strategic adjustments in response to economic conditions will be crucial for navigating the current landscape.

Core Viewpoint - The successful issuance of the data property registration certificate to Shandong Yantai Tobacco Co., Ltd. marks a significant advancement in data rights recognition and management within the tobacco industry, facilitating data circulation and transaction [1][2]. Group 1: Data Property Registration - The data property registration certificate is the first of its kind in the tobacco industry, providing authoritative recognition of Yantai Tobacco's legal ownership of specific data resources [1][2]. - The registration process involved multiple institutions, including legal and data judicial appraisal entities, ensuring a comprehensive evaluation of data rights [1]. - The introduction of blockchain technology and electronic data judicial appraisal enhances the legal validity of the data property registration, providing a solid judicial guarantee for market-oriented data circulation [1]. Group 2: Data Resource and Utilization - The "Yantai Tobacco Consumption Domain Data Set" is a high-value, anonymized data resource developed through deep governance, compliant with national standards [2]. - The company has pioneered the "Unified ID" technology, enabling seamless data integration across various sectors, which enhances consumer identification and data sharing [2]. - This data set allows Yantai Tobacco to accurately understand consumption trends, facilitating targeted marketing and the development of a digital retail ecosystem characterized by cross-industry marketing and resource sharing [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Hanyang Tobacco Bureau in Wuhan is committed to enforcing tobacco regulations through innovative approaches, focusing on cutting illegal cigarette circulation while protecting consumer rights [1] Group 1: Logistics and Illegal Circulation - Hanyang Tobacco has established a comprehensive regulatory network to cut off illegal cigarette circulation by leveraging a smart platform that integrates data from various departments [2] - A closed-loop process for identifying and handling high-risk packages has been implemented, involving police, postal services, and traffic departments [2] - Regular training sessions for logistics personnel enhance their ability to identify counterfeit products, integrating legal education into daily operations [2] Group 2: Market Management and Retail Oversight - The introduction of a traceability system using QR codes allows consumers to verify the supply chain and credit ratings of retailers [3] - A grid-based and information-driven management model is employed to monitor over 4,000 retail outlets, with real-time alerts for unusual ordering patterns [3] - The combination of daily inspections and targeted controls has effectively regulated retail operations [3] Group 3: Community Engagement and Law Enforcement - Hanyang Tobacco collaborates with law enforcement to conduct educational campaigns that raise awareness about the dangers of counterfeit cigarettes [4] - A network of community information officers has been established to facilitate legal education and encourage public participation in reporting illegal activities [4] - The dual approach of enforcement and education fosters a community-driven regulatory environment [4] Group 4: Overall Regulatory Framework - The comprehensive governance system integrates technology, collaborative enforcement, and public education to maintain order in the tobacco market [5] - This multi-dimensional approach is leading Hanyang Tobacco's regulatory efforts towards a more standardized, intelligent, and socially integrated model [5]

5月份，全省社会消费品零售总额2352.21亿元、同比增长8.5%，比上月加快0.4个百分点，今年以来呈 逐月加快态势，高于全国2.1个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长16.2%，比上月加快1.3 个百分点，高于全国8.2个百分点。1-5月，全省社会消费品零售总额11820.14亿元、增长7.5%，比上月 加快0.3个百分点，高于全国2.5个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长14.3%，比1-4月加快 0.4个百分点，高于全国8.0个百分点。超八成商品零售保持增长。5月份，在限额以上单位的23类商品 中，有19类商品零售额实现同比增长，增长面达82.6%、与上月持平。两新政策效应持续释放。5月 份，在大规模设备更新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位机电产品及设备类商品零售额增长 46.1%；在消费品以旧换新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位计算机及其配套产品、智能手机、可 穿戴智能设备、家用电器和音像器材类、新能源汽车零售额分别增长1.7倍、1.6倍、86.1%、47.3%、 27.0%，对全省限额以上单位零售额增长贡献率达56.8%、同比提高23.6个百分点。基本生活消费品增长 较快。5月 ...

Core Insights - The tobacco market is experiencing diversification with innovations in cigarette shapes, packaging styles, and color schemes, leading to a trend towards diversification, specialization, and youthfulness [1] Group 1: Microbial Technology - Microbial fermentation technology developed by Shaanxi Tobacco Company in collaboration with renowned universities enhances cigarette production by transforming chemical components in tobacco leaves [2] - This technology effectively removes undesirable odors produced during combustion and balances the chemical composition, generating natural aromatic components [2] - High-end products like "Tianxia Chang'an" and "Qinglv Yan'an" have achieved zero flavoring agent addition throughout the production process, significantly increasing the natural aroma of the smoke [2] Group 2: Venturi Filter Stick - The classic physical principle of the Venturi effect has been innovatively applied to the mouthpiece of Silk Road Chang'an cigarettes, resulting in a Venturi filter stick [3] - This design reduces the heat and irritation of the smoke, providing a smoother and more comfortable smoking experience [3] Group 3: Group Processing - Group processing involves separate processing of tobacco leaves based on their characteristics, moving away from the traditional "one-pot" method [4] - This technique enhances the quality and uniqueness of cigarette products, achieving refined design, flexible processing, and intelligent control [4] - The combination of microbial technology, Venturi filter sticks, and group processing represents the core support for the quality of Shaanxi Tobacco's cigarettes, showcasing innovation in technology application within the industry [4]

Summary of China Tobacco Hong Kong Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Tobacco Hong Kong - **Industry**: Tobacco Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Revenue**: HKD 13 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase [2][3] - **Gross Profit**: Increased by 26.6% to nearly HKD 1.4 billion [2][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Grew by 42% [2][3] - **Dividend**: Planned increase in dividend to HKD 0.46 per share, with an increase in mid-term dividend frequency [2][4][8] Business Performance and Strategy - **Post-Pandemic Export Performance**: Strong recovery in cigarette exports, particularly in Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Macau, and duty-free shops in mainland China [2][5] - **Duty-Free Market Expansion**: Ongoing efforts to expand the duty-free cigar market and increase the self-operated export ratio, currently at approximately 0.5% [2][5] - **Core Business Segments**: - Bulk tobacco products (import and export) - Cigarette exports (traditional Chinese brands) - New tobacco products (limited to heated non-combustible products) [3] Regional Operations - **Brazil Operations**: Managed by China Tobacco Brazil, covering the entire supply chain from planting to sales, with 111,000 tons of tobacco imported into China in 2024, including Brazilian imports [2][6] - **Impact of US-China Tariff Policies**: Limited impact on the company, with only the tobacco import business affected; plans to import approximately 20,000 tons of tobacco from the US [2][9] Supply Chain and Quality Assurance - **Cigar Leaf Procurement**: Primarily sourced from the Dominican Republic and Zambia, with a focus on ensuring quality stability for the existing 20,000 tons of cigar leaves [2][10][11] - **Quality Control**: Current suppliers have not met quality expectations, leading to no increase in procurement volume [2][10] Market Outlook - **Tobacco Industry Growth**: Expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% over the next 3-5 years, driven by domestic demand and international market expansion [3][27] - **Long-term Growth Logic**: Based on domestic cigarette formulation needs and the cost-effectiveness of foreign tobacco [28] Challenges and Risks - **Geopolitical Factors**: Uncertainties in US tobacco exports due to geopolitical issues, with over 10,000 tons of planned exports still under internal discussion [25][26] - **Market Volatility**: Tobacco prices subject to cyclical fluctuations and climate impacts, with a stable growth expectation despite potential short-term disruptions [24] Future Developments - **Expansion Plans**: Continued focus on expanding overseas customer base and enhancing supply chain resilience [7][13] - **Innovation in Products**: Development of proprietary technologies for heated non-combustible products, with positive feedback on domestic innovations [13][15] Conclusion China Tobacco Hong Kong is positioned for steady growth with a strong financial performance and strategic expansion plans, while navigating challenges in the geopolitical landscape and ensuring quality in its supply chain.

Summary of the Conference Call on the Tobacco Industry and Philip Morris International Industry Overview - The traditional tobacco industry has experienced significant changes, particularly in the U.S. market, where per capita smoking volume grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 1900 to 1960, but saw a 20% decline from 1975 to 1994 due to anti-smoking campaigns [1][5] - The global tobacco industry is shifting from traditional cigarettes to new tobacco products, with Philip Morris International (PMI) leading this transition [2][16] Key Points on Philip Morris International - PMI has become the largest tobacco company globally through globalization and has actively transitioned to new tobacco products, especially heated tobacco products (HTPs) [1][5] - As of 2024, PMI's smoke-free products cover nearly 40 million users, with IQOS users reaching 32 million and a user conversion rate of 72% [6][7] - PMI's market share for IQOS in the global market stands at 77%, indicating a dominant position [6][7] - PMI forecasts a 12%-14% growth in smoke-free product sales for 2025, with HTPs expected to grow by 10%-12% and nicotine replacement products by 38%-45% [7] Competitors and Market Dynamics - British American Tobacco (BAT) and Japan Tobacco are also increasing their focus on new tobacco products, aiming for 50% of their sales to come from these products by 2035. As of the end of 2024, their new product shares are 13% and 3%, respectively, compared to PMI's over 40% [8] - The heated tobacco category is seen as having explosive growth potential, with only three companies currently selling four products, led by PMI [11] Chinese Market Potential - China accounts for nearly 40% of global cigarette sales, presenting a significant growth opportunity for new tobacco products [9] - Although the domestic heated tobacco market has room for improvement compared to international leaders, the recent introduction of HTPs in the U.S. suggests potential changes in China [9][15] Emerging Trends and Future Outlook - The new tobacco industry is expected to be a long-term trend, with substantial opportunities arising from the global tobacco revolution over the next 5 to 10 years [16] - The development of nicotine pouches is growing, but they are unlikely to become mainstream due to their limited appeal [12] - Companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong are highlighted as key players in the new tobacco landscape, with Smoore being the most engaged in the heated tobacco sector [13][14] Conclusion - The tobacco industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with PMI at the forefront of this shift towards new tobacco products. The competitive landscape is evolving, with both established players and emerging companies vying for market share in a rapidly changing environment. The Chinese market, in particular, holds vast potential for growth in new tobacco products, making it a focal point for future developments in the industry [9][15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of compliance and legal tax payment as foundational elements for sustainable business development in the highland region of Shigatse, highlighting various companies' commitment to these principles. Group 1: Compliance and Internal Management - Companies in Shigatse, such as the Shigatse Tobacco Monopoly Bureau, prioritize legal tax payment and compliance as fundamental responsibilities, ensuring timely and full tax payments while enhancing internal financial management systems [1][2] - The Shigatse Tobacco Monopoly Bureau has been recognized as an "A-level Tax Credit Unit" for five consecutive years since 2019, reflecting its commitment to compliance and legal tax practices [1][2] - Regular tax self-inspection and correction processes are implemented to identify and rectify issues, thereby reducing tax risks [1] Group 2: Benefits of A-Level Tax Credit - The A-level tax credit status serves as a "golden business card" for companies, providing advantages such as electricity subsidies, tax incentives, and expedited processes, which lower operational costs and facilitate investment in technology and market expansion [4] - Companies with good credit ratings enjoy enhanced opportunities in bidding, financing, and business partnerships, as clients and partners prefer to collaborate with reputable firms [4] Group 3: Knowledge-Based Teams and Professional Development - The Shigatse Shengkang Agricultural Products Processing Co., Ltd. emphasizes the importance of a professional workforce, primarily composed of university graduates, to ensure long-term, standardized, and professional development [6] - The local tax authority has conducted various tax promotion activities, providing online consultations and on-site guidance to help companies navigate tax compliance, thereby fostering a culture of compliance awareness among employees [6][7] Group 4: Future Directions - The Shigatse Tax Bureau plans to continue optimizing services and guiding businesses towards honest tax payment and compliance, contributing to high-quality economic development in the region [7]