1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector: - **Sugar**: Macro risks and supply - side pressure led to a more than 3% drop in ICE raw sugar. Brazilian sugar production recovery and expected global output increase in the new season add to supply pressure. With weakening demand expectations, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term but has limited downside due to cost support [3]. - **Pulp**: Broad - leaf pulp prices are strong, but coniferous pulp is stable to weak. Global pulp supply remains high, and demand support from finished paper is weakening. Pulp is expected to stay at a low level in the short - term [4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: Although the peak season may support prices, high supply elasticity limits the upside potential, and it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [6][7]. - **Cotton**: Both international and domestic cotton markets are under pressure. The international market focuses on yield and economic expectations, while the domestic market is affected by new - season supply and trade relations. Cotton prices are expected to be weak [8]. - Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector: - **Apple**: New - season yield and quality uncertainties and mixed consumption support short - term prices [9]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price shows a weak - oscillation pattern. Fourth - quarter production and consumption changes affect its price. Investors are advised to adopt different strategies based on their risk tolerance [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: - **Apple 2601**: Adopt a bullish approach. New - season yield expectations and trading value provide support, with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 9000 - 9200 [19]. - **Jujube 2601**: Consider shorting at high prices. Seasonal factors and market sentiment influence the strategy, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: - **Sugar 2601**: Hold short positions cautiously. The sharp drop in raw sugar affects Zhengzhou sugar, with a support range of 5272 - 5300 and a pressure range of 5477 - 5500 [19]. - **Pulp 2511**: Adopt a bearish approach in the range. High supply and weak domestic finished - paper prices limit upward movement, with a support range of 4700 - 4800 and a pressure range of 5100 - 5200 [19]. - **Double - offset Paper 2601**: Short on rebounds. The approaching peak season supports prices, but supply elasticity limits the upside, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500 [19]. - **Cotton 2601**: Hold short positions cautiously. New - season supply and trade relations put pressure on prices, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a pressure range of 13600 - 13700 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: - **Fundamental Information**: In August 2025, fresh apple exports were about 68,400 tons, up 27.59% month - on - month and down 17.57% year - on - year. As of September 25, national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, down 60,200 tons week - on - week and 30,700 tons year - on - year [20]. - **Spot Market**: In Shandong, inventory apple prices are stable, and new - season late - maturing Fuji supply is delayed due to weather. In Shaanxi, red apples are scarce, and prices vary by quality. The market in sales areas is stable [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses decreased slightly. Attention is paid to the circulation of old - season goods and price changes before the new - season harvest [23]. - **Sugar Market**: In the first half of September 2025, 61,000 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar arrived, and 460,000 tons were forecasted for September. On October 14, ICE raw sugar dropped 3.04%. Indian sugar exports in the 2024/25 season reached 775,000 tons. Sugar spot prices were lowered [25]. - **Pulp Market**: Chinese traders counter - offered imported NBSK at $650/ton, but sellers refused. A European supplier sold at a low price. Global pulp supply is high, and demand is weak [28]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: Prices in different regions are stable. Supply is relatively loose, and demand shows no significant improvement [29][30]. - **Cotton Market**: As of the end of September, textile enterprises' in - stock and available cotton decreased. Egyptian cotton exports increased, and Pakistan's production is expected to be 930,000 - 1,008,000 tons. Xinjiang's production needs further observation [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: - **Apple 2601**: Closed at 8664, up 26 or 0.30% [32]. - **Jujube 2601**: Closed at 11110, down 20 or 0.18% [32]. - **Sugar 2601**: Closed at 5397, down 73 or 1.33% [32]. - **Pulp 2511**: Closed at 4846, up 4 or 0.08% [32]. - **Cotton 2601**: Closed at 13265, down 35 or 0.26% [32]. - **Spot Market**: - **Apple**: Spot price was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.50 yuan/jin year - on - year [37]. - **Jujube**: Spot price was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg month - on - month and down 5.30 yuan/kg year - on - year [37]. - **Sugar**: Spot price was 5810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year [37]. - **Pulp**: Spot price of Shandong Silver Star was 5550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 700 yuan/ton year - on - year [37]. - **Double - offset Paper**: Spot price of Tianyang in Tianjin was 4450 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 550 yuan/ton year - on - year [37]. - **Cotton**: Spot price was 14755 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 799 yuan/ton year - on - year [37]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary information provided in the text, only relevant figure references [46]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple 10 - 1 Spread**: Current value is 536, up 24 month - on - month and down 23 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate; recommended to wait and see [56]. - **Jujube 9 - 1 Spread**: Current value is 295, up 285 month - on - month and down 115 year - on - year, expected to range - bound; recommended to wait and see [56]. - **Sugar 1 - 5 Spread**: Current value is 27, down 5 month - on - month and up 9 year - on - year, expected to oscillate; recommended to wait and see [56]. - **Cotton 1 - 5 Spread**: Current value is - 55, up 5 month - on - month and up 40 year - on - year, expected to range - bound; recommended to wait and see temporarily [56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summary information provided in the text, only relevant figure references [64]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Apple**: 0 warehouse receipts, no change month - on - month and year - on - year [82]. - **Jujube**: 0 warehouse receipts, no change month - on - month and year - on - year [82]. - **Sugar**: 8488 warehouse receipts, down 193 month - on - month and down 1378 year - on - year [82]. - **Pulp**: 231287 warehouse receipts, down 104 month - on - month and down 171586 year - on - year [82]. - **Cotton**: 2823 warehouse receipts, down 44 month - on - month and down 1470 year - on - year [82]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary information provided in the text, only relevant figure references [82].

Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: October 15, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure from major sugar - producing countries in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, along with the recent sharp decline in crude oil prices and the rapid depreciation of the Brazilian real, have exerted significant pressure on sugar prices [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures were dragged down by the raw sugar, resulting in a significant decline, and the spot price also dropped significantly, indicating weak market demand and sugar mills' eagerness to clear inventory [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Futures Market Conditions**: On Monday, the New York raw sugar futures tumbled. The主力 March contract closed 3.29% lower at 15.57 cents per pound. The London ICE white sugar futures' December contract closed 1.4% lower at $444.00 per ton. SR601 closed at 5397 yuan per ton, down 77 yuan or 1.41%, with an increase of 32133 contracts in open interest. SR605 closed at 5370 yuan per ton, down 74 yuan or 1.36%, with an increase of 8310 contracts in open interest. The US sugar 03 contract closed at 15.57 cents per pound, down 0.53 cents or 3.29%, with a decrease of 26 contracts in open interest. The US sugar 05 contract closed at 15.13 cents per pound, down 0.49 cents or 3.14%, with an increase of 722 contracts in open interest [7]. - **Spot Market Conditions**: The spot prices in domestic production areas were lowered. The price of Nanning sugar was 5820 yuan, and that of Kunming sugar was 5710 yuan [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Sugar Mill Start - up**: As of now, 11 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started operation in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, and the last one is expected to start tomorrow. The price of white sugar of Inner Mongolia Lingyunhai in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season is 5850 yuan per ton, and the price of granulated sugar is 5950 yuan per ton [9]. - **Indian Sugar Exports**: India exported 775,000 tons of sugar in the 2024 - 25 market year (October 2024 to September 2025). The largest destination for Indian sugar exports was Djibouti with 146,000 tons, followed by Somalia with 135,000 tons, and Sri Lanka with 134,000 tons. The Indian government allowed a total export of 1 million tons of sugar in the 2024 - 25 market year on January 20, 2025 [9]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production**: A survey of 10 analysts showed that the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September was expected to increase by 3.3% year - on - year to 40.12 million tons, and the sugar production was estimated to increase by 7.7% year - on - year to 3.05 million tons [9]. - **Weather Phenomenon**: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Climate Prediction Center under the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicated that La Niña might occur briefly before early December this year and last until February 2026, which often causes rainfall and floods in Asia, especially in India [10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The report presents multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar futures' main contract [12][14][19][22].

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi government has issued the "Sugar Industry Development Action Plan (2025-2027)" aimed at restructuring and enhancing the sugar production capacity, promoting resource concentration towards leading enterprises, and improving the overall competitiveness of the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Restructuring - The plan emphasizes accelerating mergers and acquisitions among sugar enterprises to enhance resource allocation and industry concentration [1] - It encourages sugar companies to integrate internal sugar mills and supports share cooperation between enterprises [1] - The initiative aims to guide smaller sugar mills to transition towards producing raw sugar, specialty sugars, or diversify into other businesses [1] Group 2: International Influence - The plan seeks to enhance the international influence of the sugar industry by leveraging major trade events such as the China-ASEAN Sugar Industry Expo and the International Sugar Conference [1] - It encourages enterprises to participate in the formulation of international standards to increase the global recognition and impact of Guangxi's sugar products [1] - The strategy includes establishing strategic partnerships with leading international sugar companies and research institutions to introduce advanced production technologies and management practices [1]

Core Insights - The Guangxi Autonomous Region has issued the "Sugar Industry Development Action Plan (2025-2027)" aiming to enhance the sugar industry by optimizing industrial layout, upgrading industrial chains, and promoting technological innovation [1][2] Group 1: Industry Goals - The plan targets an industrial output value of 72 billion yuan by 2025, 76 billion yuan by 2026, and 81 billion yuan by 2027, positioning Guangxi as an internationally advanced sugar manufacturing base [1] - The development framework includes "two cores, one pole, and two areas," focusing on key cities like Chongzuo and Laibin for advanced manufacturing, while Nanning will serve as an innovation hub [1] Group 2: Industrial Chain Upgrading - Guangxi aims to enhance deep processing of sugarcane, developing new sugar products such as functional sugars, nutritional sugars, and liquid sugars to significantly increase product value [2] - The initiative includes expanding into beverage, snack, and high-end health food sectors, as well as diversifying into products like sugarcane water and rum [2] Group 3: Technological Innovation - The plan emphasizes tackling key technologies and industrial applications, particularly in deep processing and by-product utilization, to overcome existing technological bottlenecks [2] - There will be a focus on developing harvesting machinery and smart agricultural equipment to improve efficiency in sugarcane production [2] Group 4: Digital Transformation - Guangxi will promote digital transformation in the sugar industry, supporting the establishment of smart factories and digital workshops, and integrating AI technologies into sugar production [2] Group 5: Additional Actions - The plan includes initiatives for project quality improvement, cost reduction, enterprise strengthening, green transformation, and enhancing industrial clusters to foster high-quality development in the sugar industry [3]

Group 1 - The stock price of Guangnong Sugar Industry (000911) closed at 7.33 yuan on October 14, 2025, with an increase of 0.69% and a turnover rate of 1.32% [1] - The trading volume was 52,900 shares, with a total transaction amount of 38.768 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The company is currently progressing with its private placement project, and will fulfill information disclosure obligations as per regulatory requirements [2] - On October 14, the net inflow of main funds was 2.9395 million yuan, indicating a positive short-term attitude from major investors towards the stock [2] - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 585,500 yuan, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 2.354 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi is focusing on advancing its sugar industry towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, aiming for an industrial output value of 81 billion RMB by 2027, establishing an internationally advanced sugar manufacturing base [1][2] Group 1: Industry Development Strategy - Guangxi will create a new industrial development pattern characterized by "two cores, one pole, and two zones," with Chongzuo and Laibin as the core areas for modern sugar manufacturing [1] - Nanning will serve as the innovation leading area, while Liuzhou and Guigang will act as supporting areas for modern sugar manufacturing [1] Group 2: Product and Technology Focus - The focus will be on deep processing of sugar, transitioning products towards high-value areas such as functional sugars, nutritional sugars, and pharmaceutical sugars [1] - New product lines like L-arabinose and arabinoxylan will be introduced, and the industry chain will extend to beverages and snacks [1] - There will be an emphasis on the recycling and comprehensive utilization of by-products like bagasse and molasses, developing high-value products such as eco-friendly tableware and dietary fiber [1] Group 3: Technological Advancement - Guangxi will support enterprises in overcoming "bottleneck" technologies in deep processing and sugar-based bio-manufacturing, accelerating the industrialization of research outcomes [1] - Digital transformation will empower traditional industries, with plans to promote digital pilot projects in the sugar industry and support the establishment of smart factories [1] - The exploration of "AI + sugar industry" applications will enhance the intelligence level across the entire chain from planting to quality inspection [1] Group 4: International Collaboration - Guangxi will guide enterprises to "go global" by participating in overseas sugarcane planting and production [2] - The region will utilize platforms like the China-ASEAN Sugar Industry Expo to deepen exchanges and cooperation, encouraging partnerships with top international sugar companies and research institutions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The domestic sugar market has a significant increase in inventory compared to the previous season, with the combined industrial inventory of Guangxi and Yunnan reaching 646,800 tons as of September, a year - on - year increase of over 60%. With the start of production in sugar factories in the northern sugar beet producing areas and the expected arrival of 460,000 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar in September, the supply will gradually increase. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract should be treated as short - term bearish [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,397 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan; the main contract position is 422,156 lots, up 32,133 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 8,488, down 193; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 68,435 lots, up 6,829 lots; the total forecast of effective warehouse receipts for sugar is 0, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,426 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the import processing estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,446 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,621 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,647 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price in Nanning is 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares; the national total sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the national total sugar sales volume is 9.9998 million tons, up 449,800 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.98%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly import volume of sugar is 830,000 tons, up 90,000 tons; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, down 498,200 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,257 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 62 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,237 yuan/ton; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 36 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan [2] 产业情况 - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,257 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 62 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,237 yuan/ton; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 36 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 454,100 tons, up 44,100 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.7758 million tons, down 20,800 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.31%, up 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.32%, up 0.14 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.89%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.69%, up 0.06 percentage points [2] Industry News - India exported 7.75 million tons of sugar from October 2024 to September 2025. Brazil exported 1.8014 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of October, with an average daily export volume of 225,200 tons, a 33% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 169,500 tons in October last year. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.49 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at 15.61 cents per pound due to the prospect of oversupply [2]

资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 2025 年 10 月 14 日 白糖：供应过剩预期，价格承压 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 15.57 | -0.53 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 32 | 5 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5830 | -10 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -11 | -8 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5470 | -26 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 360 | 16 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：美股、原油反弹，黄金、白银大幅上涨并创新高。巴西 9 月上半月食糖产量同比大幅增加 16%。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴西 9 月出口 325 万吨，同比减少 16%；巴西 8 月出口 374 万吨，同比减少 5%；巴西 7 月出口 359 万吨， ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 14 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | | | | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） 持仓量（张） ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current state and future trends of the sugar industry in China, indicating a slight decline in sugar production in April 2025 while showing an overall increase in the first four months of the year [1]. Industry Summary - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's refined sugar production in April 2025 was 603,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to April 2025, China's refined sugar production reached 8.666 million tons, reflecting a growth of 3.1% compared to the same period in the previous year [1]. - The report provides insights into the competitive landscape and development trends of the sugar industry in China from 2026 to 2032, as published by Zhiyan Consulting [1]. Company Summary - Listed companies in the sugar industry include Huazi Industrial (600191), Yuegui Co., Ltd. (000833), Guannong Co., Ltd. (600251), COFCO Sugar (600737), Jinhui Industrial (002597), Guangnong Sugar Industry (000911), and Hainan Yedao (600238) [1].