Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" policy in China, focusing on structural adjustments aimed at increasing the proportion of high-quality supply to achieve industrial upgrades, contrasting with the 2016 policies targeting cyclical supply-demand imbalances in the steel and coal industries [1][6][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Involution Policy Goals**: The policy aims to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, enhance product quality, and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated production capacity to achieve high-quality development through technological upgrades [2][5]. - **Electricity Consumption vs. Industrial Value Added**: In 2023-2024, China's industrial electricity consumption is expected to grow faster than industrial value added, indicating a slowdown in investment and a necessary capacity clearance [11]. - **Wind Power Sector**: The wind power sector is benefiting from stabilized bidding prices and increased demand, with private companies showing significant profit recovery potential if strict cost control measures are implemented [3][21]. - **Copper Smelting Industry Challenges**: The copper smelting industry faces severe raw material shortages, with over 80% reliance on imports. The TC price is currently negative, indicating unsustainable conditions that may improve with industry consolidation [34]. - **Pig Farming Industry**: The pig farming sector is under pressure from CPI and capacity recovery issues, with policies aimed at controlling sow inventory to stabilize prices [3][39]. Additional Important Content - **New Anti-Unfair Competition Law**: The revised law includes provisions to combat involution-style competition, prohibiting illegal subsidies from local governments and enhancing regulation of low-quality products [7]. - **Differences from Previous Policies**: The current anti-involution policy differs from the 2016 supply-side reforms by focusing on structural quality improvements rather than merely reducing total capacity [6][15]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The conference highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors like wind power, where companies like Goldwind Technology and Yunda shares are recommended due to their cost advantages and recovery potential [21]. - **Challenges in the Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic sector faces challenges such as oversupply in the silicon material segment and financial pressures on companies, necessitating regulatory measures against low-cost sales [16][17]. - **Future of the Construction Materials Sector**: The construction materials sector, particularly in waterproofing and cement, is expected to see consolidation and price increases as inefficient players exit the market [26][29]. Conclusion - The anti-involution policy is set to reshape various industries in China, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than sheer output. Key sectors such as wind power, copper smelting, and the pig farming industry are highlighted for their unique challenges and opportunities in this evolving landscape.

专题报告 2025-07-09 "反内卷"及其对黑色板块影响 报告要点： 我们认为本轮"反内卷"并非是简单的再来一次"供给侧改革"，其与 2016 年附近的"供给侧 改革"在面临的主要矛盾上存在显著差异。前者主要解决的是无序价格战、不正当竞争、地方 保护主义等问题，为的是"高质量发展"；后者则主要聚焦上游原材料的"过剩产能"问题。 此外，二者在聚焦的产业上也明显不同。前者聚焦光伏、锂电池、新能源汽车、电商平台等新 兴行业；后者则着力于钢铁、煤炭等传统的上游行业。 对于黑色板块而言，我们认为当前阶段，"反内卷"情绪的影响大于实质。后续影响是否会出 现实质化，取决于需求端政策的发力情况。但在短期预期难以证伪的情况下，叠加 7 月份宏观 事件的频繁扰动，预计盘面价格波动将加剧，建议谨慎参与。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 黑色金属研究 | 黑色 "反内卷"及其对黑色板块影响 2025 年 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议在京召开，会议研究了纵深推进全国统一大市 场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 " ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming 2025 Fifth Electric Two-Wheeler Battery Swap Conference and the growth potential of the 32140 cylindrical lithium battery market, driven by increasing demand in outdoor activities, instant delivery services, and advancements in battery technology [2][6]. Group 1: Event Details - The event theme is "Swap City, Smart Two-Wheelers" and will take place on July 11, 2025, at the Shenzhen Baoan DENGXILU International Hotel [2]. - The event is organized by Qidian Lithium Battery, Qidian Sodium Battery, Qidian Two-Wheelers, and Battery Swap [2]. - Numerous sponsors and partners are involved, including major companies like Yadi Technology Group, New Day Co., and others [2]. Group 2: Market Statistics - In 2024, the shipment volume of 32140 cylindrical lithium batteries is expected to reach approximately 150 million units (7.19 GWh), representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the shipment volume is projected to be 42 million units, with an anticipated total shipment of 188 million units (9.0 GWh) for the entire year [2]. - By 2030, the shipment volume of 32140 cylindrical lithium batteries in China is expected to reach 363 million units (17.4 GWh), indicating a promising future for the market [2]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - The growth of the 32140 cylindrical lithium battery market is attributed to the increasing popularity of outdoor activities and the rising demand for portable energy storage solutions [2]. - The expansion of the instant delivery market is expected to enhance the penetration rate of battery swapping for two and three-wheelers, which require high-capacity batteries [2]. - Technological advancements and decreasing prices of lithium batteries are likely to lead to a gradual replacement of lead-acid batteries, providing a larger market space for 32140 batteries [2]. Group 4: Industry Structure - The 32140 cylindrical lithium battery industry is relatively mature with a high market concentration [6]. - The first tier of companies includes EVE Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and CATL, which together account for 55.0% of the market share in Q1 2025 [6]. - The second tier consists of companies like Chuangming New Energy, Baoli New Energy, and others [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by Liu Yuanchun emphasizes the need for macroeconomic governance to incorporate a new dimension of "coordinating macro regulation with micro governance" to address the issue of "involution" in competition, thereby solidifying the micro foundation for high-quality development [1][2] - The primary concern of the current macroeconomic environment is the persistently low price levels, which are influenced by both structural issues on the demand side, such as the decline in real estate investment, and complex supply-side shocks [1] - A significant supply shock driven by technological advancements and economies of scale has been observed, with labor productivity in China increasing by nearly 90% over the past decade, and costs for new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells significantly decreasing [1] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "involution" in pricing has led to a decline in corporate profit margins, with many industries experiencing worsening financial indicators despite technological upgrades, resulting in a situation where costs decrease but profits decline even faster [1][2] - To address the challenges of low prices and "involution," a comprehensive initiation of micro governance is necessary, shifting from a reliance on industry self-discipline to a new model of "government-led, industry-coordinated, and enterprise-implemented" policies [2] - The "2025 China Macroeconomic Situation Analysis and Forecast Mid-Year Report" highlights that the main short-term contradiction in China's macroeconomic operation is the imbalance between supply and demand, which has spread from the production side to the demand side, impacting key areas such as the labor market and real estate market [2]

碳酸锂期货早报 2025年7月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为18123吨 环比减少3 43% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， . 。 , | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为93660 5691056911吨 环比增加3 75% 上周三 . ， . , 59% . 。 | | | | | 基本面: | 成本端来看 | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为61715元/吨 日环比增长0 08% 生产所得为 -28元/ | | 中性 | | | | ， | ， . , | | | | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. employment data for June shows mixed results, indicating a steady but weakening economic trend, with expectations of fiscal easing from the "Great Beautiful" plan suggesting resilience in the economy for the near term [1] - China's manufacturing and construction PMI showed marginal improvement in June, with strong midstream equipment manufacturing driven by exports and new industries [1] - The central government has reiterated the need to address low-price disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and automobiles, leading to increased expectations for "anti-involution" policies [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced a shift to a looser funding environment post-quarter-end, with overall stability and a slight upward trend, despite weak fundamentals [1] - A-shares are under pressure in terms of corporate earnings, but liquidity and risk appetite are showing signs of recovery, suggesting a bullish market outlook [1] - A suggested investment strategy includes a "barbell" approach, balancing growth assets in Hong Kong and A-shares with low-volatility dividend assets until key economic indicators confirm an upward trend [1] Group 3 - The current low AH share premium and high U.S. Treasury yields may exert medium-term adjustment pressure on the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Oil demand is expected to be weak in 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Economic policy uncertainties due to tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility are likely to support a long-term bullish trend for gold prices, although short-term volatility is expected [2] Group 4 - The formation of a MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum for certain stocks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xingyuan Material has submitted an application for an IPO of H-shares in Hong Kong to enhance its international capital operation platform and support its global business expansion [1][2] - Xingyuan Material specializes in lithium battery separators and has been a leading player in the domestic separator industry for over 20 years, actively pursuing internationalization and establishing a comprehensive production capacity globally, including in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia [1][2] - The company has invested nearly 5 billion RMB in its Malaysian factory project, which is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 2 billion square meters of lithium battery separators, potentially contributing half of the group's profits once overseas capacity is fully released [2] Group 2 - The trend of lithium battery industry companies going public in Hong Kong is increasing, with notable companies like CATL also planning to list, indicating a shift from "product export" to a comprehensive "capital + technology + brand" internationalization strategy [3] - The current wave of IPOs in the lithium battery sector reflects the industry's efforts to leverage the Hong Kong market for international expansion, enabling companies to establish factories and pursue technology acquisitions abroad [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the diversified business structure of XINWANDA, with consumer batteries accounting for 54.27%, power batteries 27.02%, and energy storage 3.37% in 2024, but notes its weak profitability, with a net profit margin of only 3.14% in Q1 2025 [1][3]. Industry Status and XINWANDA IPO Background - The global lithium battery market is experiencing continuous growth, with global new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 18.236 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [2]. - China is a core market, with power battery installation volume reaching 548.4 GWh, up 41.5% year-on-year [2]. - The industry is highly concentrated, with CATL and BYD accounting for over 70% market share, while XINWANDA holds a 2.89% domestic market share and ranks tenth globally [3]. Product Competitiveness and Technology Route - XINWANDA adopts a differentiated competition strategy but is lagging in the research and development of all-solid-state batteries, with mass production expected only in 2026 [4]. - R&D investment has increased to 3.33 billion yuan in 2024, but remains insufficient compared to industry giants like CATL [4]. Market Performance and Financial Risks - XINWANDA faces several core challenges: - Leading in HEV hybrid battery installation, supplying major automakers like Volkswagen and Nissan [5]. - Advanced ultra-fast charging technology, with flash charging batteries supporting 150 km range in just one minute, leading the industry by two years [5]. - Energy storage batteries with 314Ah cells capable of over 12,000 cycles and a lifespan of 20 years [5]. - Market share is declining, with a 0.22 percentage point decrease in domestic market share from 2023 to 2024 [6]. - Profitability is weak, with the power battery business experiencing long-term losses, reporting a net loss of 144 million yuan in 2023 [6]. - Cash flow pressure is evident, with construction projects exceeding 20 billion yuan and short-term liabilities accounting for 65% of total liabilities [6]. Peer Comparison Analysis - XINWANDA's core advantages include being the leader in HEV batteries and having advanced ultra-fast charging technology, with a global market share of 30% in consumer batteries [7]. - However, it faces significant gaps compared to competitors: - CATL has a global market share of 38% and a gross margin of 27%, benefiting from scale and cost control [7]. - BYD has a self-supply rate exceeding 90% and a net profit margin of 5%, while XINWANDA lacks stable customers [7]. - EVE Energy leads in energy storage with 50.45 GWh shipped and a gross margin of 15%, while XINWANDA's energy storage business is relatively small [7].

Financing Overview - A total of 12 financing events occurred in the technology sector from June 28 to July 4, 2025, with 9 in the domestic market and 3 internationally[9] - The leading sectors for domestic financing were advanced manufacturing (6 events), artificial intelligence (2 events), and enterprise services (1 event)[9] IPO Submissions - Several companies submitted IPO applications on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, including: - EVE Energy, aiming for a listing on the main board[17] - MagiTech, also targeting the main board[19] - ChipMinds Semiconductor, with plans for the main board[22] - Wingfei Intelligent, seeking a main board listing[26] - Ruiwei Technology, applying for the main board[29] Market Performance - Major indices showed positive performance: - Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% to 3472 points - Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25% to 10509 points - ChiNext Index gained 1.50% to 2156 points[33] - The semiconductor index and artificial intelligence index experienced declines of 0.89% and 1.68%, respectively[33] Trading Metrics - High turnover rates were noted in the semiconductor (13.0%) and automotive electronics (9.6%) indices, outperforming the Wind All A Index by 4.9% and 1.5% respectively[34] - Price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the semiconductor index were 112.2, while automotive electronics and AI indices were 35.3 and 61.2, respectively[38] Financial Highlights of Listed Companies - Xintong Electronics reported revenues of 782 million, 931 million, and 1.005 billion CNY for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits of 117 million, 124 million, and 143 million CNY[13] - EVE Energy's projected revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are 36.304 billion, 48.784 billion, and 48.615 billion CNY, with net profits of 3.672 billion, 4.520 billion, and 4.221 billion CNY[18] - MagiTech expects revenues of 388 million, 1.513 billion, and 1.420 billion CNY for the same period, with net losses decreasing from 423 million to 291 million CNY[21] Risk Factors - Market competition risk exists due to rapid growth in key sectors like semiconductors and AI, potentially intensifying competition[42] - Risks related to technological advancements not meeting expectations could hinder sector growth[42] - Market demand growth may fall short of expectations, impacting overall sector development[46]

Core Viewpoint - The mobile power bank industry is facing a significant crisis due to a series of product recalls and operational challenges, primarily stemming from safety issues related to battery cells, which have led to widespread operational disruptions among major manufacturers [4][10][20]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The mobile power bank market has become extremely competitive, characterized by low margins and high pressure on manufacturers to innovate while maintaining cost efficiency [5][21]. - The market is projected to grow from $13.59 billion in 2024 to $20.35 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.40% [23]. - The industry has shifted from a focus on capacity to a more comprehensive competition involving fast charging, design, and pricing, as growth rates have slowed [24][25]. Group 2: Recent Events - The crisis was triggered by a recall of 490,000 units by Romoss and 713,000 units by Anker due to safety concerns related to defective battery cells [4][10]. - Romoss announced a temporary halt in production for six months starting July 7, 2025, due to operational challenges exacerbated by the recall [4]. - Anker's vice president expressed anxiety and urgency within the organization as they navigate the fallout from the recalls [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Issues - The recalls were linked to a specific battery cell supplier, Amperex Technology Limited (ATL), which reportedly made unauthorized changes to raw materials, leading to safety hazards [10][11][14]. - Amperex is a leading supplier in the soft-pack battery sector, producing over 100 million lithium batteries in 2023, with major clients including Romoss and Anker [13]. - The complexity of battery safety production and testing poses significant challenges, with many potential points of failure in the supply chain [17][19]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The industry is marked by intense competition, with many companies racing to enhance performance and features, often at the expense of safety and reliability [28]. - The price of power banks has significantly decreased, with Romoss's 20,000mAh fast-charging model dropping from a price range of 129-149 yuan in 2021 to 69 yuan by the end of 2024 [26]. - Companies like Anker and Ugreen are investing in research and development to differentiate themselves in a saturated market, with R&D expense ratios of 8.5% and 4.9%, respectively [29].