报 告 正 文 4 月制造业 PMI 回落至线下，供需两端均有走弱。服务业和建筑业商务活动指数均线上回落。 PMI 表现如何？ 4 月 全国制造业 PMI 录得 49.0% ，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点。各分项均较上月下降，其中 需求相对供给继续增强，内需相对外需大幅增强，大中小企业均落至线下运行，原材料价格和产成品价格双双 回落。 为何本月制造业 PMI 大幅下降？ 主要原因有三： 一是 前期"抢出口"影响下，制造业较快增长，导致 前期基数较高； 二是 外部环境急剧变化， 4 月 2 日美国对全球贸易伙伴强加关税压制抢出口； 三是 季节转 淡，存在一定的季节性影响。当前主要经济体制造业景气度普遍位于收缩区间， 3 月份美国制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ， 4 月份欧元区、英国、日本制造业 PMI 初值均低于临界点。 此外，有三点值得关注 ： 一是外部环境变化影响下，行业表现分化。 高技术制造业和部分内销为主的行业表 现相对稳定， 4 月高技术制造业 PMI 为 51.5% ，明显高于制造业总体水平；农副食品、酒饮料茶、医药等行 业的生产和新订单指数均位于 53.0% 及以上；服务业和建筑业商务活动预期指 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In April, due to the US tariff policy, business production and operation activities slowed down significantly. Although the three major indices (manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index) slowed down, China's economy generally remained in an expansionary phase [3]. - On the demand side, external demand slowed down rapidly in the short term, while domestic demand rebounded. Policy support increased, but overall demand was still slowing. In production, industrial production decreased due to the slowdown in domestic and foreign demand, but it was expected to continue growing at a relatively high speed with the support of domestic demand policies. In terms of prices, domestic - demand - type commodity prices were weak, and external - demand - type commodity prices fluctuated [3]. Summary by Relevant Content Overall Economic Situation - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49% (expected 49.8%, previous value 50.5%), the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% (expected 50.6%, previous value 50.8%), and the composite PMI was 50.2% (previous value 51.4%). All three indices decreased compared to the previous month, but the economy remained in an expansionary range [1][3][4]. - In domestic investment, real - estate sales improved, but investment recovery was slow; infrastructure investment accelerated due to the rapid issuance of special bonds; manufacturing investment maintained high - speed growth, but short - term restocking motivation weakened [3]. - Consumption growth accelerated significantly, strongly driving the economy. Exports decreased significantly due to tariff impacts on overseas demand, and future export growth was expected to slow further [3]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to the contraction range and was lower than market expectations. The new order index was 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in market demand. The production index was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, showing a slight slowdown in production [3]. - The new export order index and import index were 44.7% and 43.4% respectively, down 4.3% and 4.1% from the previous month, indicating a significant decline in external demand due to tariffs and a decrease in import demand due to external shocks [3]. - The price index continued to decline. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 47% and 44.8% respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the US tariff policy and global economic uncertainties [3][4]. - Both the finished - product inventory index and the raw - material inventory index decreased. The finished - product inventory index dropped 0.7 percentage points to 47.3%, and the raw - material inventory index decreased 0.2 percentage points to 47% [4]. Non - manufacturing Sector - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point. The service industry business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, and the construction industry business activity index was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points [4]. - In the service industry, sectors such as air transportation, telecommunications, and IT services were in a high - prosperity range, while sectors like water transportation and capital market services were below the critical point. In the construction industry, the civil engineering construction business activity index was 60.9%, up 6.4 percentage points [4]. - The service industry business activity expectation index was 56.4%, and the construction industry business activity expectation index was 53.8%, indicating that most enterprises in these two industries were confident about market development [4]. Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that overall business production and operation activities remained in an expansionary phase, although at a slower pace [4].

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting a mixed economic outlook for China [1][10]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][6]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to two main factors: significant changes in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a drop following the peak in March [5][11]. - High-tech manufacturing continues to show resilience, with a PMI of 51.5%, indicating ongoing expansion despite a slight decline [7]. Service Sector - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from March, but still within the expansion range [1][10]. - The service sector's performance is supported by seasonal factors such as the Qingming holiday, which boosted tourism and related services [10]. - Certain high-growth industries within the service sector, such as telecommunications and IT services, maintain strong activity levels, with indices above 55.0% [10]. Economic Policy Outlook - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of policy rate cuts increases after two consecutive months of manufacturing PMI in contraction, with expectations for timely adjustments in the second quarter [3][12]. - The construction sector's PMI is at 51.9%, reflecting a decline due to reduced real estate investment, but infrastructure-related activities show promise with a business activity index of 60.9% [10]. - The government is expected to implement more aggressive macroeconomic policies to stimulate demand and support infrastructure investment, as indicated by recent political meetings [10].

国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.2%、48.8%和48.7%，比上月下降2.0、1.1和0.9个百分点，均低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临 界点。 生产指数为49.8%，比上月下降2.8个百分点，表明制造业企业生产略有放缓。 新订单指数为49.2%，比上月下降2.6个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回落。 原材料库存指数为47.0%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量较上月下降。 从业人员指数为47.9%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度有所回落。 | | | | | | | | | 单位：% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 新出口 | 进口 | 采购量 | 主要原材 ...