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6月全国PMI数据解读:PMI整体暂稳,关注行业分化
Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]
国泰海通|宏观:PMI整体暂稳,关注行业分化——6月全国PMI数据解读
Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].
【招银研究|宏观点评】政策支撑,消费提速——中国经济数据点评(2025年5月)
招商银行研究· 2025-06-16 10:04
Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a mixed performance, with supply-side growth remaining strong while demand-side indicators show signs of slowing down, particularly in investment and real estate sectors [1][5]. Supply Side: Strong Support - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7% [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a marginal slowdown, with high-tech industries maintaining robust growth rates of 8.6% [6]. - The service sector production index increased by 6.2%, driven by recovering consumer demand and increased holiday travel [9]. Fixed Asset Investment: Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates declining [10]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [10][14]. - The construction sector is under pressure due to local government debt and slow issuance of special bonds for projects [10][11]. Consumption: Accelerating Beyond Expectations - Social retail sales increased by 6.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 4.8%, with both goods and catering consumption reaching new highs for the year [19]. - The increase in consumption is attributed to policy effects, pre-scheduled shopping festivals, and high demand for electronics and home appliances [19][22]. Outlook: Stabilizing with Localized Pressure - The impact of tariff changes on the economy is expected to weaken, with the second quarter growth likely to exceed earlier market expectations [24]. - However, persistent low prices may continue to erode corporate profits and delay improvements in consumer expectations [24].
国家统计局:5月服务业增长加快 现代服务业增势良好
news flash· 2025-06-16 02:12
Core Viewpoint - The service industry in China is experiencing accelerated growth, with a notable increase in the modern service sector, as indicated by the production index and various sub-sector performances [1] Industry Performance - In May, the national service production index grew by 6.2% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a production index increase of 11.2%, while leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail sectors grew by 8.9% and 8.4% respectively, outperforming the overall service production index by 5.0, 2.7, and 2.2 percentage points [1] - From January to May, the national service production index recorded a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [1] Revenue and Business Activity - For the first four months, revenue from large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.2% year-on-year [1] - The service business activity index for May was at 50.2%, rising by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index stood at 56.5%, also up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Specific sectors such as railway transport, air transport, postal services, telecommunications, and internet software and IT services reported business activity indices above 55.0%, indicating a high level of economic activity [1]
持续放大宏观政策效能
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-13 20:57
今年以来,在一系列稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期等更加积极有为的宏观政策实施下,制造业和非 制造业景气水平均持续改善,新动能持续向好,企业对市场发展的信心保持稳定。 (作者系中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所研究员) (文章来源:经济日报) 也要看到,外部环境依然复杂严峻,外贸回稳仍有不确定性,需求不足等制约因素仍然存在,企业效益 稳步恢复的基础还需继续巩固。未来,要进一步加强和巩固经济回升向好的基础。 持续实施各项稳经济政策措施。多措并举扩大内需,稳住国内基本盘,做强国内大循环。用好用足更加 积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。创设新 的结构性货币政策工具,设立新型政策性金融工具,支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。加大资金 支持力度,扩围提质实施"两新"政策,加力实施"两重"建设。提高中低收入群体收入,大力发展服务消 费,增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。 持续巩固和提升企业效益。培育壮大新质生产力,积极打造一批新兴支柱产业。推动科技创新和产业创 新融合发展,加快传统产业转型升级,坚持标准引领,规范竞争秩序。持续用力推进关键核心技术攻 关,创新推出债券市场的"科 ...
5月PMI解读:景气边际回升,政策仍需发力
China Post Securities· 2025-06-03 11:39
证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-06-03 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《2.2%以上,城投开抢?——信用周 报 20240526》 - 2025.05.26 固收点评 景气边际回升,政策仍需发力 ——5 月 PMI 解读 主要数据 5 月制造业 PMI 为 49.5%,前值 49.0%;非制造业商务活动指数 50.3%,前值 50.4%;综合 PMI 为 50.4%,前值 50.2%。 政策宽松力度不及预期,货币政策超预期收紧。 市场有风险,投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 核心观点 5 月中美达成关税暂缓执行协议,中美贸易回暖,进口指数和新 出口订单指数回升,带动国内供需回暖,制造业 PMI 环比升高。考虑 到新订单指数仍处于景气线下,企业扩产意愿不强,价格水平继续走 低,外需边际改善对景气水平的提振或有限。美国逆全球化政策对中 国经济存在长期且负面影 ...
2025年5月PMI数据点评:5月稳增长政策发力叠加关税战降温,带动宏观经济景气度回升
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2025-06-03 08:05
Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in May was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from April[1] Factors Influencing PMI - The rise in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by the implementation of proactive macro policies and a rebound in exports due to the easing of the US-China tariff conflict[2] - New credit and social financing in May were supported by a series of financial policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates[2] - The new export orders index and import index rose to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Challenges and Limitations - Despite the improvements, the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, influenced by high tariffs over 40% from the US and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[3] - High-frequency data indicated a decline in operating rates in most industries, except for those related to infrastructure investment, which saw an increase[3] Price Trends - The manufacturing PMI's price indices both fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in a deep contraction zone, with PPI expected to decline further from -2.7% to around -3.1% year-on-year[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 51.5% for four consecutive months, indicating strong growth and resilience in this sector[4] Service Sector Insights - The service sector PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from April, supported by increased tourism during the May Day holiday[5] - The construction PMI fell to 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment activities[5] Future Outlook - The implementation of steady growth policies is expected to provide crucial support for macroeconomic operations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating infrastructure investment[6] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise further to around 49.7% in June, driven by the "export rush" effect following the easing of tariffs[6]
5月PMI:内外分化加深——中采PMI点评(25.05)(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-06-03 01:06
Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [2][10][52] - The new export index remains low, while domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI shows overall improvement, with production and new order indices rising by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion threshold, while the new order index remains in contraction territory, indicating faster production but weaker demand [2][10] - Industries with high domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, have seen PMIs rise by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [2][21] - Conversely, export-dependent sectors like textiles and chemicals have underperformed, with production and new order indices below the critical point [2][21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, with the construction sector experiencing a notable decline due to weak real estate performance [2][67] - The construction PMI fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51%, while civil engineering activities are accelerating, as indicated by a PMI of 62.3% [29][67] - Service sector PMI saw a marginal increase to 50.2%, driven by improved activity in tourism and dining during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, necessitating close monitoring of fiscal policies' impact on domestic demand [45] - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs has created a temporary freeze on tariff enforcement, adding to the external uncertainties [45] - Service consumption and infrastructure investment are expected to be key areas for fiscal support, potentially enhancing domestic demand [45]
“抢出口”带动制造业PMI回暖——2025年5月PMI点评
EBSCN· 2025-06-01 00:20
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, while energy-intensive industries continue to decline, with a PMI of 47.0%[6][19] Group 2: Service and Construction Sectors - The service sector PMI slightly increased to 50.2%, driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, with significant activity in tourism and hospitality[31][32] - The construction sector PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion due to housing demand constraints, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35][36] - Special bonds issuance in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than April's 230.1 billion yuan, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]
上升0.5个百分点,最新PMI数据发布​​​
新华网财经· 2025-05-31 03:05
国家统计局5月31日发布数据显示, 5月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.5%,比上月上升0.5个 百分点; 非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%,比上月下降0.1个百分点;综合PMI产出指数为50.4%,比上 月上升0.2个百分点,我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业PMI回升 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计 师赵庆河表示,5月份,制造业PMI为49.5%,景气水平 比上月改善。 图片来源:国家统计局 企业生产加快。 5月份,生产指数为50.7%,比上月上升0.9个百分点,升至临界点以上,制造业生产活 动有所加快。新订单指数为49.8%,比上月上升0.6个百分点。 大型企业PMI升至临界点以上。 5月份,大型企业PMI为50.7%,比上月上升1.5个百分点,重返扩张区 间,其生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.5%和52.5%,比上月上升1.7和3.0个百分点;中型企业PMI为 47.5%,比上月下降1.3个百分点,景气水平回落;小型企业PMI为49.3%,比上月上升0.6个百分点,景 气水平有所改善。 高技术制造业延续扩张。 5月份,从重点行业看,高技术制造业PMI为50.9%,连续4个月保持在扩张区 间, ...