Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Views - The rotation between old and new consumption sectors continues, with leading brands in liquor and dairy products rebounding. The performance of mass-market products in Q2 shows divergence, with new consumption-related stocks experiencing rapid growth despite previous adjustments in performance expectations. Traditional channel reforms have impacted some stocks, leading to ongoing adjustments in performance [1][3][33] - The liquor sector is expected to have limited downside potential for leading companies, with high ROE, dividends, and cautious profit assumptions indicating a valuation floor. Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [2][12] - New consumption trends are anticipated to continue, with potential for recovery in the second half of the year. Focus on low-priced or undervalued stocks with future catalysts, including Wei Long, Yili, and Wancheng Group [1][3][33] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector remains at a low point, with a focus on potential policy catalysts and rebound opportunities. Leading brands with strong market positions are prioritized for investment. Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [2][12] - Recent performance shows a positive trend, with Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Jiu Gui Jiu leading in gains, while Jinzhidao and Huangtai Jiuye faced declines [5][39] Mass-Market Products - The new consumption paradigm is reshaping the food and beverage investment landscape. Despite a recent pullback, the long-term trend remains positive, with clear opportunities for continued investment. Focus on stocks that align with new consumption trends, such as Wei Long, Yili, and Wancheng Group [3][33] - The mass-market sector has seen significant fluctuations, with stocks like Huangshi Group and Guoquan showing strong gains, while stocks like Ganyuan and Gu Ming faced notable declines [39][42] Performance Metrics - From July 14 to July 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, with non-dairy beverages and liquor sectors showing gains of 2.16% and 1.30%, respectively. Conversely, frozen foods and snacks experienced declines of 2.26% and 1.10% [39][40] - The valuation levels for the food and beverage industry have adjusted, with the liquor sector showing the highest valuation increase this week [43]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the reconstruction of investment paradigms in the food and beverage sector, driven by new consumption trends that focus on emotional value, health, and technological innovation [1][14][30] - The new consumption paradigm is characterized by a shift from traditional consumption frameworks to a model that prioritizes innovative supply and new demand creation through quality offerings [1][14][35] - The report identifies three main consumption trends: rational quality consumption, emotional value self-consumption, and technological iteration innovation [1][14][30] Group 2 - The analysis of sub-sectors indicates that traditional leaders in beer, dairy, and condiments should be evaluated through traditional consumption frameworks, while new consumption-driven sectors like snacks, tea drinks, and health products require a bottom-up approach to identify explosive changes [2][35] - In the snack sector, companies with category dividends and new channel expansions are expected to perform well, with projected revenue growth rates for various companies in Q2 2025 [4][36] - The soft drink sector shows differentiated performance across segments, with energy drinks and ready-to-drink tea expected to grow, while traditional segments face challenges [4][37] Group 3 - The dairy sector is anticipated to have stable revenue in Q2 2025, with a focus on profit elasticity once raw milk prices stabilize [4][38] - The tea drink market is experiencing high growth driven by the delivery battle, with key players like Mixue Group and Cha Bai Dao expected to thrive in the mid-price segment [4][41] - The health product sector is seeing a concentration in the B-end market, while the C-end market requires attention to high-growth single products [4][39] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include companies that align with new consumption trends, such as Wei Long, Yili, Wanchen Group, and others, indicating a focus on long-term growth opportunities despite short-term adjustments [6][35] - The report highlights the importance of supply chain optimization and product innovation for brands to remain competitive in the evolving retail landscape [30][33]

Company Performance - Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Food Co., Ltd. is the only company among the disclosed reports to achieve positive net profit growth in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 44.37 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.21% [1] - Huangshanghuang plans to achieve a revenue of 2.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 145 million yuan in 2025, aiming for double growth in both revenue and profit [2] Industry Trends - The market growth rate of the marinated food industry has been slowing down, leading to intensified competition as new brands enter the market [3] - Leading companies are shifting from rapid expansion to refined operations, focusing on optimizing store models and enhancing single-store revenue to cope with market pressures [3] - Future competition will be determined by supply chain capabilities, with top companies investing in self-built breeding bases, central factories, and cold chain logistics to enhance competitiveness [3] - The industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality competition," emphasizing product health and innovation, with a focus on low-salt and low-fat formulations [3][4] Market Opportunities - The diverse consumption trends in marinated products provide ample market space for production companies to expand sales and develop new leading products [4] - Leading brands will further consolidate their advantages through technological investments and resource integration, while smaller brands need to seek differentiation in niche markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ziyan Food is expanding its international presence with the opening of its first North American store in New York and plans to invest 300 million yuan in a beef processing facility in Nepal, aiming to connect global consumers with high-quality Chinese cuisine [2][3]. Strategic Layout of Upstream Raw Materials - The stability of beef supply is crucial for Ziyan Food, which plans to establish a beef processing project in Nepal to ensure supply chain stability and control procurement costs, potentially exporting tens of thousands of tons of beef to China annually [3][4]. - The project has received support from the Chinese embassy in Nepal, highlighting the importance of international cooperation in enhancing trade [4]. Innovation and Growth Resilience - Ziyan Food reported a net profit of 346 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, demonstrating resilience amid industry challenges [4][5]. - The company focuses on differentiated positioning and enhanced R&D capabilities, particularly in the meal-oriented segment, which has higher entry barriers compared to snack-oriented products [4][5]. - The establishment of a research and innovation center in Lianyungang aims to tailor products to local tastes across various Chinese cities, with successful new products like spicy rabbit legs gaining popularity [4][5]. Overseas Expansion - The opening of the North American store marks a significant step in Ziyan Food's internationalization strategy, following successful store launches in Australia [6][7]. - The choice of developed markets like Australia for expansion is a strategic decision to align with the company's mid-to-high-end positioning and to leverage the mature market systems that reduce uncertainties [6][7]. - The company emphasizes the importance of localizing products to cater to foreign consumer preferences, such as offering boneless options for Western markets [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The "three giants" of the marinated food industry, namely Juewei Food, Zhou Hei Ya, and Huang Shang Huang, are collectively facing a decline in performance in 2024, marking a significant downturn in an industry that was once thriving [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - Juewei Food's revenue dropped to 6.257 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.84%, with net profit plummeting 34.04% to 227 million yuan, marking its first revenue decline since its IPO in 2017 [1][3]. - Zhou Hei Ya's revenue fell by 10.7% to 2.451 billion yuan, with net profit down 15.03% to 98.2 million yuan [3]. - Huang Shang Huang experienced a 9.44% decrease in revenue to 1.739 billion yuan, with net profit sharply declining by 42.86% to 40.33 million yuan, marking its fourth consecutive year of revenue decline [3][5]. Market Dynamics - The decline in performance is attributed to intensified market competition and changing consumer demand, with rising prices leading to consumer complaints about affordability [3][5]. - Juewei Food acknowledged that its performance was significantly impacted by fierce market competition, with continued revenue and profit declines in the first quarter of 2024 [3][5]. - Huang Shang Huang cited changes in consumer purchasing power and consumption scenarios as factors leading to reduced single-store revenue, alongside increased promotional costs and other operational challenges [5]. Store Count and Expansion - The total number of marinated food stores in China decreased by 23,000 over the past year, with the three major brands closing over 1,700 stores in the first half of 2024 alone [7]. - Juewei Food's store count dropped from 15,950 at the end of 2023 to 12,129 by mid-April 2024, a net decrease of 3,821 stores in 16 months [7]. Profit Margins - Despite the revenue and profit declines, the gross profit margins of the three giants improved in 2024, with Juewei Food's gross margin increasing by 6.1 percentage points to 33.96% [9]. - Huang Shang Huang's gross margin rose by 3.93 percentage points to 32.95%, while Zhou Hei Ya's gross margin reached 56.8%, up by 4.4 percentage points [9]. Internal Challenges - The marinated food industry faces significant internal challenges, including uncontrollable production costs due to reliance on volatile raw material prices, particularly poultry by-products [10][12]. - The soaring costs of raw materials, such as duck products, have severely compressed profit margins, with procurement costs remaining high despite some price reductions in the latter half of 2023 [12][14]. - The industry's growth model, heavily reliant on rapid store expansion, is now hindered by declining consumer demand and rising operational costs, forcing companies to shift focus from quantity to improving single-store performance [16]. External Competition - The marinated food industry is experiencing pressure from diversified consumption channels, with new retail formats like bulk snack stores and e-commerce platforms drawing customers away from traditional marinated food outlets [17][19]. - Changing consumer dietary habits and preferences, driven by economic pressures, have led to a decline in the appeal of traditional marinated products, which are often perceived as unhealthy [19][21]. - Supermarkets have increasingly focused on their own processed products, enhancing their competitiveness against traditional marinated food brands, which struggle to adapt to changing consumer tastes [21][23].

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial struggles of Juewei Foods (603517.SH) highlight significant issues in cost control, strategic planning, and brand management, exacerbated by a recent health certificate forgery scandal that has raised concerns about its franchise model [3][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Juewei Foods reported a revenue of 6.257 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.84% year-on-year, while net profit fell to 227 million yuan, down 34.04% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the downward trend continued, with revenue and net profit declining by 11.47% and 27.29% respectively [3]. - Sales expenses surged by 23.31% in 2024, reaching 667 million yuan, and further increased by 8.93% in Q1 2025 to 146 million yuan, without effectively boosting performance [4]. Debt and Liquidity Concerns - As of Q1 2025, Juewei Foods had total current liabilities of 1.732 billion yuan, while cash reserves stood at only 905 million yuan, indicating potential liquidity issues [4]. Franchise Model Challenges - The rapid expansion through franchising has led to management challenges, including quality control and compliance issues among franchisees, highlighted by the recent health certificate forgery incident [5][6]. - The company has faced criticism for its inadequate oversight of franchise operations, which has negatively impacted brand reputation [6]. Expansion and Capacity Utilization - Juewei Foods has budgeted 1.56 billion yuan for significant construction projects aimed at expanding processing capacity, despite facing operational pressures [7][9]. - Several processing projects have not achieved expected returns due to underutilization of capacity, raising questions about the feasibility of the expansion plans [9]. Market Dynamics and Brand Management - The evolving market demands higher standards for product quality, service, and brand image, making mere capacity expansion insufficient for maintaining competitive advantage [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the declining performance of Juewei Foods and the broader challenges facing the marinated food industry, indicating a significant downturn in both revenue and profit for major players in the sector [1][4][8]. Group 1: Company Performance - Juewei Foods' market value peaked at 600 billion RMB in 2021, with rapid expansion from 9,053 stores in 2017 to 12,399 stores in 2020, and revenue growth from 3.85 billion RMB to 5.276 billion RMB during the same period [3]. - In 2024, Juewei Foods reported a revenue of 6.257 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 13.84%, and a net profit of 227 million RMB, down 34.04% [4][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued the downward trend, with revenue of 1.501 billion RMB, a decrease of 11.47%, and a net profit of 120 million RMB, down 27.29% [4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The marinated food industry is experiencing a collective downturn, with Juewei Foods, Zhou Hei Ya, and Huang Shang Huang all reporting declines in revenue and profit [9][10]. - Zhou Hei Ya's revenue in 2024 was 2.451 billion RMB, down 10.66%, while Huang Shang Huang reported 1.739 billion RMB, a decline of 9.44% [9]. - The industry faces challenges such as the expiration of growth dividends, with a net closure of approximately 23,000 stores nationwide in the past year, indicating a contraction in the market [10]. Group 3: Price and Cost Dynamics - The marinated food sector is grappling with significant fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly for duck products, which constitute over 50% of Juewei Foods' procurement costs [10][11]. - Prices for duck necks surged from 12 RMB/kg to 27 RMB/kg between 2021 and 2023, a rise of over 125%, before falling to 10 RMB/kg in late 2023, a decrease of 63% [11]. - Despite the drop in raw material costs, Juewei Foods has been slow to adjust its prices, leading to reduced consumer demand and continued profit decline [11]. Group 4: Business Model and Strategy - Juewei Foods relies heavily on franchisees, with over 90% of its stores being franchises, which has previously driven rapid growth [12]. - However, due to declining demand, the company has shifted its strategy from aggressive expansion to focusing on enhancing single-store revenue and supporting franchisee survival [12][13]. - The average single-store revenue in the first half of 2024 was 169,000 RMB, reflecting an 11% year-on-year decline [13]. Group 5: Investment and Future Outlook - Juewei Foods has historically invested in various food-related companies, but recent investments have resulted in losses, with a reported investment loss of 160 million RMB in 2024 [14]. - Cumulative investment losses over the past three years exceed 370 million RMB, indicating challenges in both operational and investment growth avenues [14]. - The company is currently facing a "dead end," with both core business and investment strategies proving ineffective in driving performance improvement [14].

以下文章来源于启阳路4号 ，作者公司研究院 启阳路4号 . 聚焦财经热点事件，通过深度调查寻找财经真相。 近日，"卤制品三巨头大幅关店网友吐槽吃不起"冲上热搜榜首，阅读量超8000万，讨论量1.1 万，"明明是街边小店非要卖出酒店摆盘的价格"、"每次都说拿一点点就够了，一称40块"、"它 明明可以抢，却还给了我一些鸭脖"，话题词下网友诉说起那些年被价格刺客支配的往事。 反映在卤味三巨头的财报里，营收和利润双跌。 根据近期发布的财报，周黑鸭营收24.5亿元，同比下滑10.7%；净利润9820万元，同比下滑 15%；煌上煌营收17.39亿元，同比下滑9.44%；归属净利润4033万元，同比下滑42.86%；绝 味食品，营收62.57亿元，同比下滑13.84%；净利润2.27亿元，同比下滑34.04%。 "月薪过万，啃不起鸭脖"，已经成了打工人的自我调侃。近年几乎每一次财报一发，"鸭脖卖不 动了""年轻人不爱吃鸭脖了"的讨论声就会出现，"卤味三巨头"到底怎么了？ 卤味三巨头到底有多贵？ 根据绝味鸭脖小程序，定位北京，270克鸭脖30元、240克黑鸭翅中25元、150克鸭肠30元、 120克鸭舌50元。根据周黑鸭小程 ...

以下文章来源于启阳路4号 ，作者公司研究院 根据近期发布的财报，周黑鸭营收24.5亿元，同比下滑10.7%；净利润9820万元，同比下滑15%；煌上煌营收17.39亿元，同比下滑9.44%；归属 净利润4033万元，同比下滑42.86%；绝味食品，营收62.57亿元，同比下滑13.84%；净利润2.27亿元，同比下滑34.04%。 "月薪过万，啃不起鸭脖"，已经成了打工人的自我调侃。近年几乎每一次财报一发，"鸭脖卖不动了""年轻人不爱吃鸭脖了"的讨论声就会出现，"卤 味三巨头"到底怎么了？ 01 三巨头，一年或缩水超3600家 卤味三巨头到底有多贵？ 根据绝味鸭脖小程序，定位北京，270克鸭脖30元、240克黑鸭翅中25元、150克鸭肠30元、120克鸭舌50元。根据周黑鸭小程序，300克鸭脖36 元、230克鸭翅29元、80克鸭肠25元、140克鸭舌59元。 启阳路4号 . 聚焦财经热点事件，通过深度调查寻找财经真相。 来源丨公司研究院 因为价格贵被吐槽上热搜，快成了"零食界爱马仕"的标配。 近日，"卤制品三巨头大幅关店网友吐槽吃不起"冲上热搜榜首，阅读量超8000万，讨论量1.1万，"明明是街边小店非要卖 ...

盈利预测与投资建议。预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为4.9亿元、5.5亿元、6.1亿元，EPS 分别为0.81 元、0.91 元、1.01 元，对应动态PE 分别为20 倍、18 倍、16倍。伴随着刺激政策落地和公司改革深入落 地，经营有望迎来拐点，给予2025 年25 倍PE，对应目标价20.25 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：原材料价格或大幅波动；食品安全风险；投资收益大幅波动风险。 毛利率提升，费用投放加大，盈利水平承压。1、2024年、2025Q1公司毛利率分别为30.5% （+5.8pp）、30.8%（+0.8pp），主要受益于鸭副等原材料价格回落及供应链效率优化。2、2024 年销售 费用率、管理费用率分别为10.7%（+3.2pp）、7.2%（+0.8pp）；2025Q1 销售费用率、管理费用率分别 为9.7%（+1.8pp）、7.6%（+1.4pp），市场竞争加剧的环境下，渠道费用投放增加。3、2024 年公司对 联营企业和合营企业的净投资收益为-1.6 亿元，拉低整体盈利水平，2024 年净利率为3.3%（-1.1pp）； 2025Q1 净利率7.7%（-1.7pp）。 多措并举 ...