行业研究 建筑施工行业 2026 年建筑施工行业展望： 供需结构深度调整，信用分化趋势显现 工商部 | 肖尧 2026 年 2 月 6 日 摘要 2025 年，我国建筑施工行业进入调整与转型阶段。行业供给端形成"高端产能不足、低 端产能过剩"的结构性矛盾，行业正处于从同质化规模供给向差异化能力供给转型的关键阶 段。需求端正经历深刻转变，增长动力从传统房地产开发逐步转向以"两重"建设、城市更 新、绿色智能建筑为代表的多元领域。融资端，债券发行集中于高信用等级央国企，行业整 体债务规模较大，需持续关注债券兑付情况。预计 2026 年，我国建筑施工行业将继续向高质 量、专业化方向演进，政策方向将聚焦国家重点战略与新兴领域。行业整体信用质量将保持 稳定，但需重点关注行业结构性调整带来的信用风险分化。 一、 行业供给能力分析 1.1 行业规模分析 2025 年，我国建筑业总产值进入负增长区间，行业整体进入调整期。2025 年，我国建筑 业总产值同比由 326,501.11 亿元降至 303,818.33 亿元，2025 年 1～9 月出现近 5 年来的首次 累计负增长，并于年内延续下降趋势。同期，我国建筑业新签合同额为 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing federal immigration enforcement actions in the Rio Grande Valley are causing significant disruptions in the local construction industry, leading to project delays, labor shortages, and increased costs [1] - The residential construction in Hidalgo County has decreased by approximately 30% in recent months, according to estimates from Valley Land Title's CEO [2] - A report from the American General Contractors Association indicates that about one-third of commercial contractors nationwide have been affected by immigration enforcement in the past six months, which is driving up housing costs and compressing builders' profits [3] Group 2 - The construction industry heavily relies on immigrant labor, with studies showing that immigrants make up over half of the construction workforce in states like Texas, California, New Jersey, and Washington, and an even higher percentage in the Rio Grande Valley [1] - The concrete company 57Concrete reported a 60% decrease in concrete usage from May to November last year, leading to over one-third of its workforce being laid off and the company filing for bankruptcy reorganization [3] - Materiales El Valle, a tile supplier, experienced a loss of $5.3 million in sales and had to lay off employees for the first time in 40 years, while also facing challenges in filling job vacancies [3] Group 3 - The construction quality at projects like Monte Cielo is declining as contractors are forced to hire inexperienced workers due to the arrest of skilled laborers [4] - Community banks are reporting reduced loan demand and tighter standards, which are stifling further investment and causing project delays [3] - Industry organizations are seeking to reduce enforcement on job sites and support the establishment of new non-immigrant visa categories to allow employers to bring in foreign labor if positions remain unfilled for three months [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Gaoxin Development (sz000628) reached its daily limit with a price of 55.85 yuan, marking a 10.01% increase and a total market value of 19.675 billion yuan [1] - The company has a strong order reserve in the construction sector, with unfinished orders exceeding 27 billion yuan, ensuring performance growth for the next 2-3 years [2] - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a projected growth of 208% to 363% in non-recurring net profit, indicating enhanced profitability in its main business [2] Group 2 - The construction industry is experiencing positive market expectations, which may drive stock prices of related companies, as evidenced by the simultaneous rise of several stocks in the construction sector on February 12 [2] - Technical indicators such as the MACD forming a golden cross and the BOLL channel breaking through the upper track may attract technical investors, contributing to the stock's limit-up [2] - There was a notable net inflow of large orders on the same day, indicating that the market has a favorable outlook on the company's future [2]

Core Insights - The project at Longhua District Maternal and Child Health Hospital is exploring intelligent construction methods to meet the stringent requirements of "millimeter-level precision" and to address challenges such as concrete flatness control, hidden engineering detection difficulties, high-altitude work risks, and time-consuming auxiliary processes [1] Group 1: Introduction of Intelligent Equipment - The project incorporates various intelligent equipment, including laser leveling robots, track troweling robots, laser positioning instruments, and dust-free grooving machines, to enhance construction efficiency from foundational positioning to detailed execution [2] Group 2: Solving Detection Challenges - The project employs professional equipment like infrared thermal imaging cameras and multifunctional circuit testers to conduct comprehensive inspections of critical areas, addressing the challenges of hidden engineering detection and structural quality control [3] - A four-dimensional detection network is established using specialized tools such as electric pipeline blockage detectors and concrete rebound testers to ensure structural safety and construction accuracy [3] Group 3: Process Optimization and Efficiency Gains - The introduction of lifting platforms and intelligent aerial vehicles has improved the efficiency of high-altitude operations by over 30%, while ensuring safety through remote control and safety warning systems [4] - Auxiliary processes are optimized with electric transport vehicles increasing material transfer efficiency by 50%, and smart charging cabinets preventing electrical fire hazards [4] - Solar photovoltaic technology is utilized for energy self-sufficiency, reducing project energy costs, while smart temporary lighting ensures continuous operation even during complex scenarios [4]

Group 1 - The provincial safety committee has issued a notice emphasizing the need for enhanced safety measures before and after the Spring Festival, focusing on risk prevention and management in various sectors [1][2] - In the tourism sector, there is a specific focus on managing safety risks associated with large crowds, ensuring the safety of tourist vehicles, and inspecting high-risk equipment [1] - The notice highlights the importance of safety supervision in the transportation of fireworks and the management of large public events to prevent accidents such as fires, electrocutions, and stampedes [1][2] Group 2 - The transportation sector is advised to optimize capacity and order management during peak times, especially under adverse weather conditions, and to strengthen safety oversight of key vehicles [2] - In the fire safety domain, comprehensive inspections are mandated for large commercial complexes and high-rise buildings to address major fire risks [2] - The mining sector is required to implement strict safety measures and combat illegal operations, while construction sites must enhance management and safety checks [2] Group 3 - The provincial safety committee will enforce strict duty and information reporting protocols, ensuring leadership presence and 24-hour duty at critical positions [3] - Emergency rescue measures are to be improved, with resources and personnel pre-positioned in high-risk areas to ensure rapid response to emergencies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Palm Holdings, is facing significant financial challenges, with a projected net loss for 2025 between 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, primarily due to increased competition in the construction industry and other operational issues [2] Recent Events - The company announced a substantial expected loss for 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected to be between 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, attributed to declining project margins, slowed project progress, extended settlement periods, and high financial costs [2] - The company plans to transfer 80% stakes in two project companies to its controlling shareholder for 258 million yuan to offset equivalent debts, aiming to enhance asset liquidity and reduce financial costs, with an expected after-tax gain of approximately 26.31 million yuan [3] - Palm Holdings' subsidiary won a bid for a high-standard farmland construction project in Shangqiu City, with an estimated contract value of about 228 million yuan, which represents 7.44% of the company's projected revenue for 2024, potentially benefiting future financial performance [4] Company Structure and Governance - The company held a board meeting to review proposals related to providing financial support to project companies, indicating ongoing internal governance dynamics [5] Financial Movements - The company recorded a net financing inflow of 4.7967 million yuan on January 21, 2026, with a financing balance of 191 million yuan, representing 3.72% of its market capitalization, reflecting short-term market funding trends [6] Operational Status - Historical data shows that the company's revenue for 2024 was 3.065 billion yuan, with 1.945 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, alongside a consistently negative net profit and a high debt-to-asset ratio of 89.87% at the end of 2024 [7]

陕建股份（600248）(600248.SH)发布公告，2026年1月，公司及下属子公司中标多个5亿元以上施工项 目，项目名称包括：迪拜G+5P+45住宅楼项目(Laguna)等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, 陕建股份, has announced that it has won four construction projects with a total bid amount of 4.834 billion yuan, indicating a strong performance in securing large-scale contracts [1] Group 1: Project Details - The company and its subsidiaries have successfully bid for four construction projects, with a total bid amount of 4.834 billion yuan [1] - The Laguna residential project in Dubai has a bid amount of 2.643 billion yuan, located in the Arab City of Dubai, UAE [1] - The Ideal Fengyue Bay community construction (second phase) has a bid amount of 1.026 billion yuan, situated in Xixian New District, Shaanxi Province [1] - The construction of a 30,000 cubic meter finished oil depot has a total bid amount of 600 million yuan, located in Qiannan Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, Guizhou Province [1] - The Jinli Sunshine International Agricultural Trade City (Phase II) has a bid amount of 565 million yuan, located in Xianyang City, Shaanxi Province [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in both revenue and profit in its recent financial disclosures, yet its stock price experienced a slight increase on the announcement day [1]. Recent Events - On January 5, 2026, the company disclosed its monthly report on securities changes, indicating no changes in authorized share capital, issued shares, or treasury shares, with H-shares and unlisted shares remaining stable. The announcement also referenced a stock incentive plan proposed in 2018, but no new shares were issued or transferred this month. The stock closed at HKD 4.02, up 0.5% [2]. Performance and Operations - The mid-year report for 2025 (ending June 30, 2025) revealed revenue of CNY 8.503 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 33.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 141 million, down 62.29% year-on-year. Revenue from construction and real estate development dropped by 34% and 46%, respectively, while the construction materials segment saw a slight revenue increase of 5%, but with an expanded operating loss. The company maintained a net cash position with a debt ratio of approximately 2.3% [3]. Industry Policy and Environment - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to the downturn in the real estate sector and intensified market competition, with new engineering contract amounts decreasing by 36% year-on-year. The company plans to address these challenges through cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and a focus on urban renewal initiatives [4].

2026 年 02 月 10 日 AI 产业链产品出口或将延续强势 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置整体回升。最近两周（腊月初六到腊月十九），水 泥发运率、磨机运转率处于农历同期历史中高位，石油沥青装置开工率处于农历 同期历史低位。基建项目水泥直供量同比降幅仍大，房建水泥用量则接近 2025 年同期。资金方面，2026 开年建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2025 年农历同期。 2.工业生产端，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化表现较弱。最近两周（腊月 初六到腊月十九），整体工业开工率仍处农历同期历史中高位。化工链中 PX 开 工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中低位，汽车钢胎开工率处于同期历史 中高位，焦化企业开工率降至历史低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，家电销售有所回暖。最近两周(腊月初六到腊月十九)， 螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求处于历史同期低位。乘用车四周滚动销量同比延续 负增，中国轻纺城成交量回升至历史中高位，主要家电销售有所回暖。 商品价格：国内工业品价震荡偏强运行 相关研究报告 《一文看懂日本众议院选举与日债、 日元波动及影响—宏观经济点评》 -2026.2.6 《 ...