Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing a weak trend; the downside space of the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - term contracts; the rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the relief of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - term contracts under the supply - demand gap, and the export premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the price of the far - term contracts from the cost side [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean meal in the next month is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The outer - market US soybean planting weather is favorable and shows a weak trend; the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system have limited downside space, and the market is pricing the far - term supply - demand gap; the rapeseed system strengthens due to the relief of warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - Bullish factors: The basis has rebounded due to some oil mills' shutdowns, and the downside space for the subsequent spot - futures convergence of the 09 contract is limited. The soybean arrivals are expected to have a gap after December. The near - term rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal due to warehouse receipt issues, and the far - term rapeseed supply has uncertainties leading to accelerated marginal destocking [5][6]. 3.5 Oil Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3072 | 7 | 0.23% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2762 | 11 | 0.4% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3026 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2463 | 24 | 0.98% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2402 | 15 | 0.63% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2745 | 21 | 0.77% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 990.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1868 | 0.0026 | 0.04% | [6] 3.6 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 310 | - 4 | | M05 - 09 | - 264 | 8 | | M09 - 01 | - 46 | - 4 | | RM01 - 05 | 61 | 9 | | RM05 - 09 | - 343 | - 6 | | RM09 - 01 | 282 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2900 | - 30 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 126 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2562 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 162 | - 35 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 338 | - 30 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 281 | - 18 | [10] 3.7 Oil Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4655.5086 | 29.7162 | - 0.0771 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3970.92 | 8.71 | 38.09 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 756.9933 | 2.162 | 12.6856 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 724.9886 | 29.7162 | 136.5096 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 106.2403 | - 25.7061 | 0.5465 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 296 | 86 | 218 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 479 | 104 | 238 | [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report Oilseeds - The market lacks obvious drivers, with focus on US trade negotiations. The US - Japan tariff agreement raises expectations for negotiations with the EU and China, which is beneficial for soybean exports and price support. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68% (lower than the expected 71% but still at a five - year high), and late - month high temperatures and rainfall in the production areas have limited impact on soil moisture [6]. - In the Dalian soybean meal market, the upcoming China - US tariff consultations next week have led to the withdrawal of both long and short positions for risk - avoidance. China's "anti - involution" policy for the pig industry weakens the demand expectation for soybean meal, and enterprises' procurement of Argentine soybean meal diversifies the supply. Spot prices are under pressure and have declined, with high inventories at oil mills leading to a temporary supply surplus, and weak momentum from end - users to chase high prices. Spot prices are hovering between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [6]. - For rapeseed meal, during the week, influenced by China's "anti - involution" policy for pigs (weakening soybean meal demand) and large enterprises' procurement of Argentine soybean meal (strengthening supply), short positions entered the market, and it followed the decline of Dalian soybean meal. The uncertainty of the China - US trade consultation results may cause significant price fluctuations [6]. Oils Soybean Oil - International negative factors include the expected high yield of US soybeans and the poor progress of China - US negotiations, which are negative for CBOT soybeans and soybean oil. Trade negotiations are also dragging down NYMEX crude oil. Domestically, oil mills face high inventory pressure, but the market expects demand to improve in August [40]. - In the short - term, soybean oil futures have declined slightly this week, dragged down by the futures market. Purchasing is light, and downstream procurement has slowed down, with the average daily factory transactions decreasing week - on - week. Currently, at the end of July, oil mills are mainly focused on urging提货, and there are few contracts for sale. The pressure to urge提货 is relatively small in Jiangsu and greatest in Guangdong and Guangxi. After August, supported by procurement costs, it will be difficult for traders to easily lower the basis. Although a large amount of Brazilian soybeans will arrive at ports, there is uncertainty about China - US negotiations and soybean imports in the fourth quarter. Coupled with the start of universities and Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling, the spot basis will adjust in the short - term and rise in the medium - to - long - term [40]. Palm Oil - Internationally, the palm oil market is in a high - level oscillatory adjustment. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month inventory forecast. If production increases and exports decline, leading to a continuous increase in inventory, it may fall below 4200 ringgit and continue to weaken. If it stabilizes at 4200 ringgit, there is still a chance to test 4500 ringgit [41]. - In the domestic market (Dalian palm oil), if Malaysian palm oil falls below 4200 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may follow and test 8500 - 8600 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil stabilizes and strengthens between 4200 - 4250 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may stand firm at 8900 yuan and then rise. It is also noted that due to the large previous increase, risks should be carefully considered [45]. Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil futures and the spot market follow the price changes of the futures. The basis quotation has been lowered by 30 - 40 yuan/ton, and the spot prices at major ports such as Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi have decreased by 120 - 160 yuan/ton month - on - month. Currently, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, with low terminal acceptance willingness, weak transactions in many areas, and the basis continuing to decline slightly [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oilseeds Soybean Meal - **Market Drivers**: Focus on US trade negotiations, with the US - Japan tariff agreement raising expectations for other negotiations and supporting exports. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68% [6]. - **Domestic Market**: China - US tariff consultations lead to risk - avoidance by traders. The "anti - involution" policy for pigs weakens demand, and procurement of Argentine soybean meal diversifies supply. Spot prices are between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Price Fluctuations**: Influenced by domestic policies and international trade uncertainties, it may experience significant fluctuations [6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Movement**: Followed the decline of Dalian soybean meal this week due to domestic policy and supply factors. Uncertainty in China - US trade may cause large price swings [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has narrowed to around 300 yuan/ton, leading to reduced rapeseed meal transactions. In Fujian, inventories are low, and quotes are scarce. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis oscillates within a narrow range [6]. Oils Soybean Oil - **International Factors**: Negative factors include US soybean high - yield expectations, poor China - US negotiation progress, and their impact on related markets [40]. - **Domestic Situation**: High inventory pressure at oil mills, but expected demand improvement in August. Short - term futures decline, light purchasing, and different levels of pressure to urge提货 in different regions [40]. - **Future Outlook**: After the end of the urging提货 period in August, prices may oscillate and rise with the improvement of demand. Spot basis is expected to adjust in the short - term and rise in the medium - to - long - term [40]. Palm Oil - **International Market**: High - level oscillatory adjustment, with inventory forecast at the end of the month being a key factor affecting price trends [41]. - **Domestic Market**: Influenced by Malaysian palm oil prices, with different price trends expected based on the performance of Malaysian palm oil [45]. Rapeseed Oil - **Market Trend**: Futures and spot prices decline, with the basis quotation and major port spot prices decreasing. The basis of East China crude rapeseed oil is near par, and transactions are weak [42].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating, but the strategies for both soybeans and peanuts are rated as "Neutral" [6][8] 2. Core Views - **Soybeans**: In the short - term, the price of domestic soybeans has resilience due to the supply gap, but the increase in imported soybeans (estimated 9.5 million tons in July) and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside. In the long - term, good weather in new - season soybean producing areas, stable yields, and a loose global supply pattern may lead to lower international prices and drag down domestic prices. The overall price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain range - bound, with policy factors such as provincial reserve auctions and CGSG rotation rhythms to be monitored [1][6][33] - **Peanuts**: In the short - term, the low inventory of old - crop peanuts and the lack of centralized release of cold - storage goods before mid - July support the price, but supply pressure is expected to build up in September. In the long - term, if there is no extreme weather in 2025, the supply of new - season peanuts will be loose, and the support level may decline. However, there are uncertainties such as weather during the key growing period, the impact of imported peanuts, and the influence of soybean production on peanut prices [7][48] 3. Summary by Section Soybeans - **Half - year Market Review in 2025**: The domestic soybean market fluctuated greatly. Futures prices were affected by factors such as new - season supply, consumption seasons, provincial reserve auctions, and weather. For example, the futures price of the main contract 2505 dropped from 3,936 yuan/ton to 3,269 yuan/ton in January and then fluctuated throughout the first half of the year [10] - **Half - year Supply and Demand Analysis in 2025**: On the supply side, in 2024, the sown area and yield of soybeans decreased slightly. In 2025, the domestic soybean supply showed characteristics of decreasing domestic inventory and fluctuating imports. Policy support may increase the sown area in the future. On the demand side, the demand for pressing was strong first and then weak, while the edible demand was continuously weak. The inventory of domestic soybeans was low, and the port inventory of imported soybeans increased [18][27][30] - **Future Outlook**: The price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain range - bound, with short - term price support from the supply gap and long - term downward pressure from a loose global supply pattern and weak demand. Policy factors may strengthen the expectation of loose supply [33] Peanuts - **Half - year Market Review in 2025**: The peanut market also fluctuated. Futures prices were affected by factors such as supply and demand in the market, new - season sowing delays, and consumption. For example, the futures price of the main contract 2503 slightly dropped from 7,928 yuan/ton to 7,920 yuan/ton in January and then rose and fluctuated [36] - **Half - year Supply and Demand Analysis in 2025**: On the supply side, the domestic peanut production in 2024 was basically the same as that in 2023. In 2025, the sown area is expected to increase due to lower costs. The supply rhythm showed that the remaining grain decreased, and the import volume was at a low level in the first four months. On the demand side, the demand from oil mills was weak, and the edible demand was affected by consumption downgrade [38][43][45] - **Future Outlook**: In the short - term, the price has support, but supply pressure is expected in September. In the long - term, if there is no extreme weather, the supply will be loose, and the support level may decline. There are also uncertainties in weather, imports, and the impact of soybean production [46][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the price of protein meal will continue to be constrained by the absolute supply of raw materials, showing a weak range - bound volatile trend. With the smooth planting of new US soybean crops, there is limited upward driving force for the domestic soybean meal futures market. However, the near - term soybean meal futures price has basically squeezed out the trade - war premium and is gradually pricing in the Q3 supply pressure. There is still a gap in Q4 soybean purchases. After trading the arrival volume and inventory pressure in Q3, there may be an inflection point in the year. The low physical inventory of feed mills on the demand side also implies potential bullish factors. In terms of valuation, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums, the far - month futures price is expected to have marginal upward driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1852 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.385 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in purchasing costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Q3 protein meal prices are constrained by raw material supply, showing a weak range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal futures market has limited upward momentum. The near - term price has squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in Q3 supply pressure. There may be an inflection point after Q3, and the low inventory of feed mills is a potential bullish factor. The far - month price may have upward driving force due to limited downside of US soybeans and resilient Brazilian premiums [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - After China - US talks, there is strong cost - valuation support for the far - month contracts from the external market [5]. - Bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts is strong during the weather - related speculation period [5]. - Brazilian export premiums support the far - month contract prices from the cost end [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures, leading to weak performance of the 09 contract. Soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are rising, and some areas are urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 11.5 million tons in July and 11 million tons in August. Supply in Q3 is still abundant, and the Q4 gap depends on China - US relations [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and adding rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness for downstream users. The market's reaction to the WTO's investigation of China - Canada tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market is expected to follow the soybean meal market and be weak [6]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices - Closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates are provided for various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB [9]. 3.7 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Spreads, prices, and daily changes are provided for different combinations of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as spot prices and basis for soybean meal and rapeseed meal [10]. 3.8 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - Import costs, daily and weekly changes, and import profits are provided for US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans, the domestic price had a decline - then - rise trend this week. The strong upward trend has eased, but due to the sharp rise in the futures market and positive news, the short - term bearish sentiment has quickly dissipated. With farmers' remaining grain almost exhausted in the Northeast, traders are the main holders, and their reluctance to sell at low prices supports the market price [4][13] - For peanuts, the domestic price fluctuated strongly this week. As of April 24, 2025, the average price of general - purpose peanuts was 8,280 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from last week. The trading atmosphere improved slightly, and the market was generally stable. Positive signals from oil mills boosted market confidence, and both sellers and buyers showed more positive attitudes, though buyers remained cautious [5][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis Price Quotes - Futures: The closing price of the main soybean contract 2507 this week was 4,238 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 151 yuan or 3.7% [11] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans in various regions decreased compared to last week. For example, in Bayan, it was A07 - 57, down 130 from last week [11] Supply and Demand - Arrival forecast: In April 2025, Brazilian soybeans arriving in China were estimated at 9.99 million tons, Argentine at 0 million tons, and US at 1.75 million tons, totaling 11.74 million tons. Market demand remained insufficient, and the remaining grain in the producing areas was estimated to be less than 10% [12] Future Outlook - The domestic price showed a decline - then - rise trend. The short - term bearish sentiment dissipated, and it was difficult for prices to continue falling. Traders' reluctance to sell supported the price [13] Peanut Market Analysis Price Quotes - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract this week was 8,268 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 262 yuan or 3.3% [14] - Spot: The spot basis in various regions decreased compared to last week. For example, in Nanyang, Henan, it was PK10 + 130, down 266 from last week [14] Supply and Demand - Inventory: As of April 24, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 151,700 tons, an increase of 531 tons from last week. The arrival volume at oil mills increased this week [15] - Market transaction: The arrival volume in the domestic market was small. Traders were cautious in purchasing due to the hot weather, and market demand was not obvious with average sales [15] Future Outlook - The domestic peanut price fluctuated strongly. The market was generally stable, and positive signals from oil mills boosted market confidence. Buyers' purchasing willingness increased slightly but remained cautious [16]