经济观察网近7天内，商业航天领域迎来政策利好。根据经济观察网的报道，国家航天局设立商业航天 司并发布《推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划(2025—2027年)》，同时"十五五"规划建议明确加快 建设航天强国，这一动态可能对维珍银河(代码SPCE.N)等航天公司产生潜在积极影响。 股票近期走势 维珍银河股价近期波动频繁。截至2026年02月12日最新数据，股价为2.61美元，当日下跌0.57%，近5日 累计上涨10.85%，但年初至今累计下跌18.85%。所属航天军工板块当日上涨1.72%，大盘纳斯达克指数 近五日上涨2.13%。 财报分析 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 最新财报数据显示，维珍银河营业收入为36.5万美元，净利润为-6442万美元，每股收益-1.09美元，市 盈率为负值，反映公司仍处于亏损状态。 机构观点 机构评级意见分化。截至2026年1月10日，参与评级的8家机构中，25%给予"买入"建议，50%给予"持 有"建议，25%给予"卖出"建议，显示市场观点存在分歧。 ...

截至2026年2月，5家机构均给予"买入"评级，目标均价121.60美元，较当前股价低0.44%。机构一致看 好公司长期前景，但盈利预测显示2025年第三季度净利润同比下滑735.06%，短期基本面承压。 经济观察网近7天，杜科蒙股价区间累计涨幅2.42%，振幅4.66%，最高价124.50美元，最低价118.94美 元。2月12日收盘价122.14美元，单日上涨1.34%，成交额494万美元；同期股价波动受技术面驱动，表 现优于大盘及所属航天军工板块。 机构观点 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - January non-farm employment data exceeded expectations with an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly higher than the anticipated 65,000[2] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, despite a rise in labor participation rate[2] - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts until June, with market expectations for a rate cut probability of less than 6% in March[3] Inflation and Economic Trends - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a "K-shaped" recovery to a "re-inflation" phase, with high-net-worth individuals stabilizing the economy through refinancing[6] - Inflation expectations are self-reinforcing, with actual mortgage rates at a three-year low, contributing to a recovery in the housing sector[8] - The housing affordability index remains above 100, indicating that median-income households can still afford homes despite high prices[21] Industry-Specific Developments - The traditional electronic fabric market is experiencing accelerated price increases due to supply shortages, with prices rising by 0.5-0.6 RMB/m[43] - The AI electronic fabric sector is expected to see significant growth in 2026, driven by demand from AI chips and consumer electronics[46] - The coal industry is projected to benefit from a resurgence in coal power in the U.S., with companies like Peabody Energy and China Shenhua expected to gain[51]

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 12 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：核心通胀回升渐入佳境 2026 年 1 月中国 CPI 同比 0.2%（前值 0.8%，彭博一致预期 0.4%），环比 增速持平于 12 月的 0.2%；PPI 同比-1.4%（前值-1.9%），略高于彭博一致 预期的-1.5%，环比较 12 月的 0.2%上行至 0.4%。 风险提示：反内卷政策推进程度不及预期，内需超预期走弱。 研报发布日期：2026-02-11 研究员 吴宛忆 SAC:S0570524090005 SFC:BVN199 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 王洺硕 SAC:S0570525070003 SFC:BUP051 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。 1 今日早参 | 2026 年 2 月 12 日 宏观：1 月新增非农反弹但持续性待观察 概览：2026 年 1 月美国新增非农就业 13 万，高于彭博一致预期的 6.5 万， 11-12 月累计下修 1 ...

经济观察网近7天内，商业航天领域迎来政策利好。根据经济观察网的报道，国家航天局设立商业航天 司并发布《推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划(2025—2027年)》，同时"十五五"规划建议明确加快 建设航天强国，这一动态可能对维珍银河(代码SPCE.N)等航天公司产生潜在积极影响。 截至2026年02月11日最新数据，维珍银河(SPCE.N)股价为2.59美元，当日下跌4.61%，振幅6.64%；近5 日累计上涨0.58%，但年初至今累计下跌19.47%。所属航天军工板块当日下跌0.74%，大盘纳斯达克指 数近五日上涨0.20%。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 股票近期走势 ...

【基金评价 】 ETF配置系列（一）：恰逢其时 ETF大发展，丰富的品类提供多元配置可能。 我国ETF市场在长期发展过程中，已逐步形成覆盖范围较广、产品类型较为完整的产品体系。按投资市场划分， ETF不仅覆盖中国内地、中国香港和沪港深市场，也涵盖海外主要发达市场（如美国、日本）及新兴市场（如巴西、沙特），并存在跨境全球主题投资的 ETF。按资产类型划分，ETF覆盖股票、债券及商品三大类资产。其中，股票型ETF可进一步细分为宽基、行业、主题及策略四类。债券ETF覆盖利率债、信 用债、可转债及主题债等券种，可按照期限进一步细分，用于满足不同投资目标的需求。商品ETF涵盖黄金、豆粕、有色金属及能源化工四类商品品种，更多 作为大类资产配置工具发挥作用。相对完备且持续进化的生态系统，为投资者进行精细化、多元化资产配置提供了基础工具池。 绝对收益策略。 绝对收益策略池旨在通过股票、债券、商品和黄金等不同类别资产之间较低的相关性构建组合。我们构建了5个绝对收益组合：1、目标波动 率3%策略，2016-2025年底年化收益6.74%，最大回撤3.72%；2、目标波动率5%策略，2016-2025年底年化收益8.04%，最大回 ...

2026年2月机构评级显示，24家机构对洛克希德.马丁的观点中，买入或增持占比25%，持有占比67%， 目标均价为657.21美元，略高于当前股价。机构提示需关注估值风险及行业政策变动影响。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 近7日(2026年2月5日至2月10日)，洛克希德.马丁股价区间涨跌幅为4.45%，最高价达638.97美元(2月9 日)。2月9日股价上涨2.36%，可能与新产品发布相关；2月10日股价回调1.37%，收盘报629.56美元。同 期美股航天军工板块下跌0.82%，公司股价表现相对稳健。 机构观点 经济观察网洛克希德.马丁公司于2026年2月9日推出新型无人自主潜航器"七鳃鳗"，该潜航器采用"即插 即用"设计，可附着于舰艇船体执行情报收集、监视及打击任务，旨在为美军及其盟国提供技术和战略 优势。此外，台湾地区军方近期评估引进C-130J"大力神"运输机以替换老旧机队，该计划基于2025年12 月披露的消息，近期因采购成本及战略调整仍受关注。 股票近期走势 ...

2月10日，军工板块早盘V字回升翻红，午后维持红盘震荡。高人气军工ETF华宝（512810）量能异动 引发关注，截至发稿，场内成交额超1亿元，较昨日全天暴增逾150%！结合场内高频溢价来看，或有巨 量资金介入。 成份股表现上，分化较为显著，航锦科技、中国动力涨停，应流股份续涨逾6%再创历史新高。下跌方 面，航天南湖、航天发展等商业航天热门股重挫居前。 成份股表现上，分化较为显著，航锦科技、中国动力涨停，应流股份续涨逾6%再创历史新高。下跌方 面，航天南湖、航天发展等商业航天热门股重挫居前。 华泰证券2月9日发布《航天军工行业周报（第六周）：重视国际军贸投资机遇》表示，国际安全形势不 确定性增强，重视军贸发展机遇。展望"十五五"，国防和军队现代化将实现高质量推进，实现由"量"的 增值转向"质"的提升。我们认为，"十五五"期间，我军装备需求将有望在总量稳中有增的情况下出现显 著的结构性机会，新增量或将出现在"十五五"规划建议中提到的新域新质、无人智能与反制、先进武器 以及低成本装备等方面，建议关注军工新产品和新市场两条主线。 【投军工，选"八一"】代码有"八一"的军工ETF华宝（512810）（原国防军工ETF） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the aerospace and military industry, with specific recommendations for several companies [8][42]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the increasing uncertainty in international security, highlighting opportunities in military trade as countries ramp up defense spending. For instance, the U.S. has approved military sales worth $6.67 billion to Israel and $9 billion to Saudi Arabia, indicating a vibrant military trade market [11][12]. - The report suggests that China's military equipment demand is expected to grow, particularly in new domains and advanced weaponry, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [13][17]. - The military trade market is anticipated to remain active, with China positioned as a key supplier capable of providing comprehensive solutions [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The aerospace and military industry is rated as "Buy" with a focus on specific companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, Guorui Technology, and others [8][42]. Key Companies - Recommended companies include: - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760 CH) - Guorui Technology (600562 CH) - Western Superconducting Technologies (688122 CH) - Guotai Group (603977 CH) - Ruichuang Micro-Nano (688002 CH) - Steel Research and Testing (300797 CH) - Northern Navigation (600435 CH) - Gaode Infrared (002414 CH) - Aerospace Rainbow (002389 CH) - Aerospace Intelligent Manufacturing (300446 CH) [3][42]. Market Trends - The report notes a structural shift in military equipment demand, with a focus on new technologies such as unmanned systems and advanced weaponry. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive significant growth in these areas [13][15][16]. - The military trade market is projected to grow, with China's market share expected to increase from 5.87% to a more competitive position as global military spending rises [17][18]. Performance Metrics - As of February 6, 2026, the Shenyuan Defense and Military Index has a PE (TTM) of 95.29, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [39][40].

- The report introduces a quantitative model framework for market trend analysis, focusing on five asset style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. The model evaluates assets based on their intrinsic attributes and prioritizes them using the sequence of g > ROE > D, analyzing whether there are "good assets" and whether they are "expensive" [5][8][9] - The model incorporates key factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (B/P). Each factor is associated with specific market phases, e.g., expected growth is relevant across all phases, while profitability is emphasized during maturity phases [9][12] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.67% since 2009. It has shown consistent excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017, with limited effectiveness in years like 2011, 2012, and 2016 [19][22] - The model's backtesting results for specific years include notable excess returns, such as 51% in 2009, 36% in 2013, and 62% in 2022. However, it also recorded underperformance in years like 2011 (-11%) and 2014 (-4%) [22] - The report details six specific strategies derived from the model, each focusing on different factors: - **Expected Growth Strategy**: Selects industries with the highest analyst-forecasted growth rates. Recent recommendations include sectors like automotive sales, lithium equipment, and tungsten [38][39] - **Actual Growth Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the highest unexpected growth (△g). Current recommendations include photovoltaic equipment, insurance, and coal chemical sectors [40][41] - **Profitability Strategy**: Targets high-ROE industries with low valuations under the PB-ROE framework. Recommended sectors include copper, liquor, and non-dairy beverages [43][44] - **Quality Dividend Strategy**: Utilizes a DP+ROE scoring system to identify industries. Current recommendations include forestry, lithium equipment, and fiberglass [46][47] - **Value Dividend Strategy**: Employs a DP+BP scoring system. Recommended sectors include security, daily chemicals, and buses [49][50] - **Bankruptcy Value Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores. Current recommendations include automotive sales, ceramics, and cotton textiles [53][54]