经济观察网近7天内，商业航天领域迎来政策利好。根据经济观察网的报道，国家航天局设立商业航天 司并发布《推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划(2025—2027年)》，同时"十五五"规划建议明确加快 建设航天强国，这一动态可能对维珍银河(代码SPCE.N)等航天公司产生潜在积极影响。 股票近期走势 维珍银河股价近期波动频繁。截至2026年02月12日最新数据，股价为2.61美元，当日下跌0.57%，近5日 累计上涨10.85%，但年初至今累计下跌18.85%。所属航天军工板块当日上涨1.72%，大盘纳斯达克指数 近五日上涨2.13%。 财报分析 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 最新财报数据显示，维珍银河营业收入为36.5万美元，净利润为-6442万美元，每股收益-1.09美元，市 盈率为负值，反映公司仍处于亏损状态。 机构观点 机构评级意见分化。截至2026年1月10日，参与评级的8家机构中，25%给予"买入"建议，50%给予"持 有"建议，25%给予"卖出"建议，显示市场观点存在分歧。 ...

截至2026年2月，5家机构均给予"买入"评级，目标均价121.60美元，较当前股价低0.44%。机构一致看 好公司长期前景，但盈利预测显示2025年第三季度净利润同比下滑735.06%，短期基本面承压。 经济观察网近7天，杜科蒙股价区间累计涨幅2.42%，振幅4.66%，最高价124.50美元，最低价118.94美 元。2月12日收盘价122.14美元，单日上涨1.34%，成交额494万美元；同期股价波动受技术面驱动，表 现优于大盘及所属航天军工板块。 机构观点 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - January non-farm employment data exceeded expectations with an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly higher than the anticipated 65,000[2] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, despite a rise in labor participation rate[2] - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts until June, with market expectations for a rate cut probability of less than 6% in March[3] Inflation and Economic Trends - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a "K-shaped" recovery to a "re-inflation" phase, with high-net-worth individuals stabilizing the economy through refinancing[6] - Inflation expectations are self-reinforcing, with actual mortgage rates at a three-year low, contributing to a recovery in the housing sector[8] - The housing affordability index remains above 100, indicating that median-income households can still afford homes despite high prices[21] Industry-Specific Developments - The traditional electronic fabric market is experiencing accelerated price increases due to supply shortages, with prices rising by 0.5-0.6 RMB/m[43] - The AI electronic fabric sector is expected to see significant growth in 2026, driven by demand from AI chips and consumer electronics[46] - The coal industry is projected to benefit from a resurgence in coal power in the U.S., with companies like Peabody Energy and China Shenhua expected to gain[51]

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 12 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：核心通胀回升渐入佳境 2026 年 1 月中国 CPI 同比 0.2%（前值 0.8%，彭博一致预期 0.4%），环比 增速持平于 12 月的 0.2%；PPI 同比-1.4%（前值-1.9%），略高于彭博一致 预期的-1.5%，环比较 12 月的 0.2%上行至 0.4%。 风险提示：反内卷政策推进程度不及预期，内需超预期走弱。 研报发布日期：2026-02-11 研究员 吴宛忆 SAC:S0570524090005 SFC:BVN199 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 王洺硕 SAC:S0570525070003 SFC:BUP051 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。 1 今日早参 | 2026 年 2 月 12 日 宏观：1 月新增非农反弹但持续性待观察 概览：2026 年 1 月美国新增非农就业 13 万，高于彭博一致预期的 6.5 万， 11-12 月累计下修 1 ...

经济观察网近7天内，商业航天领域迎来政策利好。根据经济观察网的报道，国家航天局设立商业航天 司并发布《推进商业航天高质量安全发展行动计划(2025—2027年)》，同时"十五五"规划建议明确加快 建设航天强国，这一动态可能对维珍银河(代码SPCE.N)等航天公司产生潜在积极影响。 截至2026年02月11日最新数据，维珍银河(SPCE.N)股价为2.59美元，当日下跌4.61%，振幅6.64%；近5 日累计上涨0.58%，但年初至今累计下跌19.47%。所属航天军工板块当日下跌0.74%，大盘纳斯达克指 数近五日上涨0.20%。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 股票近期走势 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant development of the ETF market in China, highlighting its diverse product offerings that cater to various investment needs across different asset classes and markets [2] - The ETF market includes coverage of domestic and international markets, with products spanning stocks, bonds, and commodities, providing a comprehensive toolset for investors [2] - The article emphasizes the evolution of the ETF ecosystem, which supports refined and diversified asset allocation strategies for investors [2] Group 2 - The absolute return strategy pool aims to construct portfolios with low correlation among different asset classes, presenting five specific strategies with varying target volatility and historical annualized returns [3] - The relative return strategy focuses on style rotation, capturing market opportunities through switching among growth, value, large-cap, and small-cap styles, with five strategies showing significant annualized returns [4] - Additionally, the article outlines industry rotation strategies designed to exploit structural market opportunities, detailing two specific strategies with their respective annualized returns [4] Group 3 - The article reports on China's successful test of the Long March 10 rocket and the Dream Chaser spacecraft, marking a significant milestone in the country's manned lunar exploration efforts [7] - It outlines the planned timeline for China's lunar exploration program, aiming for a manned moon landing by 2030, with a series of missions leading up to that goal [9] - The article suggests that the space exploration projects, particularly the manned lunar program, are expected to drive growth in new sectors such as space tourism and commercial space ventures during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [9]

2026年2月机构评级显示，24家机构对洛克希德.马丁的观点中，买入或增持占比25%，持有占比67%， 目标均价为657.21美元，略高于当前股价。机构提示需关注估值风险及行业政策变动影响。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 近7日(2026年2月5日至2月10日)，洛克希德.马丁股价区间涨跌幅为4.45%，最高价达638.97美元(2月9 日)。2月9日股价上涨2.36%，可能与新产品发布相关；2月10日股价回调1.37%，收盘报629.56美元。同 期美股航天军工板块下跌0.82%，公司股价表现相对稳健。 机构观点 经济观察网洛克希德.马丁公司于2026年2月9日推出新型无人自主潜航器"七鳃鳗"，该潜航器采用"即插 即用"设计，可附着于舰艇船体执行情报收集、监视及打击任务，旨在为美军及其盟国提供技术和战略 优势。此外，台湾地区军方近期评估引进C-130J"大力神"运输机以替换老旧机队，该计划基于2025年12 月披露的消息，近期因采购成本及战略调整仍受关注。 股票近期走势 ...

2月10日，军工板块早盘V字回升翻红，午后维持红盘震荡。高人气军工ETF华宝（512810）量能异动 引发关注，截至发稿，场内成交额超1亿元，较昨日全天暴增逾150%！结合场内高频溢价来看，或有巨 量资金介入。 成份股表现上，分化较为显著，航锦科技、中国动力涨停，应流股份续涨逾6%再创历史新高。下跌方 面，航天南湖、航天发展等商业航天热门股重挫居前。 成份股表现上，分化较为显著，航锦科技、中国动力涨停，应流股份续涨逾6%再创历史新高。下跌方 面，航天南湖、航天发展等商业航天热门股重挫居前。 华泰证券2月9日发布《航天军工行业周报（第六周）：重视国际军贸投资机遇》表示，国际安全形势不 确定性增强，重视军贸发展机遇。展望"十五五"，国防和军队现代化将实现高质量推进，实现由"量"的 增值转向"质"的提升。我们认为，"十五五"期间，我军装备需求将有望在总量稳中有增的情况下出现显 著的结构性机会，新增量或将出现在"十五五"规划建议中提到的新域新质、无人智能与反制、先进武器 以及低成本装备等方面，建议关注军工新产品和新市场两条主线。 【投军工，选"八一"】代码有"八一"的军工ETF华宝（512810）（原国防军工ETF） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the aerospace and military industry, with specific recommendations for several companies [8][42]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the increasing uncertainty in international security, highlighting opportunities in military trade as countries ramp up defense spending. For instance, the U.S. has approved military sales worth $6.67 billion to Israel and $9 billion to Saudi Arabia, indicating a vibrant military trade market [11][12]. - The report suggests that China's military equipment demand is expected to grow, particularly in new domains and advanced weaponry, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [13][17]. - The military trade market is anticipated to remain active, with China positioned as a key supplier capable of providing comprehensive solutions [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The aerospace and military industry is rated as "Buy" with a focus on specific companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, Guorui Technology, and others [8][42]. Key Companies - Recommended companies include: - AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760 CH) - Guorui Technology (600562 CH) - Western Superconducting Technologies (688122 CH) - Guotai Group (603977 CH) - Ruichuang Micro-Nano (688002 CH) - Steel Research and Testing (300797 CH) - Northern Navigation (600435 CH) - Gaode Infrared (002414 CH) - Aerospace Rainbow (002389 CH) - Aerospace Intelligent Manufacturing (300446 CH) [3][42]. Market Trends - The report notes a structural shift in military equipment demand, with a focus on new technologies such as unmanned systems and advanced weaponry. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive significant growth in these areas [13][15][16]. - The military trade market is projected to grow, with China's market share expected to increase from 5.87% to a more competitive position as global military spending rises [17][18]. Performance Metrics - As of February 6, 2026, the Shenyuan Defense and Military Index has a PE (TTM) of 95.29, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [39][40].

- The report introduces a quantitative model framework for market trend analysis, focusing on five asset style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. The model evaluates assets based on their intrinsic attributes and prioritizes them using the sequence of g > ROE > D, analyzing whether there are "good assets" and whether they are "expensive" [5][8][9] - The model incorporates key factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (B/P). Each factor is associated with specific market phases, e.g., expected growth is relevant across all phases, while profitability is emphasized during maturity phases [9][12] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.67% since 2009. It has shown consistent excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017, with limited effectiveness in years like 2011, 2012, and 2016 [19][22] - The model's backtesting results for specific years include notable excess returns, such as 51% in 2009, 36% in 2013, and 62% in 2022. However, it also recorded underperformance in years like 2011 (-11%) and 2014 (-4%) [22] - The report details six specific strategies derived from the model, each focusing on different factors: - **Expected Growth Strategy**: Selects industries with the highest analyst-forecasted growth rates. Recent recommendations include sectors like automotive sales, lithium equipment, and tungsten [38][39] - **Actual Growth Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the highest unexpected growth (△g). Current recommendations include photovoltaic equipment, insurance, and coal chemical sectors [40][41] - **Profitability Strategy**: Targets high-ROE industries with low valuations under the PB-ROE framework. Recommended sectors include copper, liquor, and non-dairy beverages [43][44] - **Quality Dividend Strategy**: Utilizes a DP+ROE scoring system to identify industries. Current recommendations include forestry, lithium equipment, and fiberglass [46][47] - **Value Dividend Strategy**: Employs a DP+BP scoring system. Recommended sectors include security, daily chemicals, and buses [49][50] - **Bankruptcy Value Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores. Current recommendations include automotive sales, ceramics, and cotton textiles [53][54]