Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall volatility of the non - ferrous sector has led to a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The terminal demand for electric vehicle and automotive batteries remains weak, with slow inventory digestion by dealers, resulting in insufficient new orders for production enterprises. Some manufacturers choose to temporarily halt or reduce production to relieve inventory pressure. The upcoming 15% - 20% new tariff policy in the US poses greater challenges to the industry's exports [1][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 14, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.62 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan per ton to 16,875 yuan per ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to -20.00 yuan per ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by -50 yuan per ton to 16,925 yuan per ton, SMM Henan lead changed by -50 yuan per ton to 16,875 yuan per ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -75 yuan per ton to 16,925 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,275 yuan per ton, while the prices of waste white shells and black shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan per ton and 10,575 yuan per ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,055 yuan per ton and closed at 17,085 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 31,556 lots, a decrease of 20,905 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 52,444 lots, a decrease of 1,035 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,130 yuan per ton and a low of 17,020 yuan per ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,060 yuan per ton and closed at 17,035 yuan per ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, the discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and there was more queuing for pick - up due to reduced supply from smelters. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 10 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and small factories' lead could be quoted at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan per ton. In Jiangxi, smelters' inventory decreased, and quotes were firm, at a premium of 120 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead price. The spot market trading was weaker in the south and stronger in the north [2] Inventory - On July 14, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous week. As of July 14, the LME lead inventory was 260,950 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy is cautiously bullish. The starting - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces dropped to 70.76% in the first week of July, a 1.07 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The option strategy is to sell put options [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes. The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. [5][7] - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13][14] - The electrolytic aluminum market is influenced by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations. The inventory shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21][22] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum and weak downstream demand, with some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28][29] - The zinc market has a situation of increasing supply and entering the consumption off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] - The lead market has a supply that is difficult to increase and improving consumption, and short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40][41] - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, with prices showing a volatile trend. [44][45] - The stainless - steel market is affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, with prices expected to be weak. [51][53] - The industrial silicon market may be in a state of supply - demand balance in July. With the reduction of production by leading enterprises and the resumption of production in the southwest, prices have strengthened recently. [60] - The polysilicon market has price fluctuations within a certain range, and traders are advised to adjust their positions according to market rumors. [65][66] - The lithium carbonate market is affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, with prices rising sharply in the short - term and expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 7,283 lots to 510,300 lots. [2] - Spot: In the East China market, holders actively sold goods, and downstream buying was weaker than last week. In the Guangdong market, inventory increased significantly, and downstream procurement increased due to price drops. In the North China market, consumption was weak. [2] Important Information - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee. [3] - Codelco's copper production in the first half of the year increased by 9% year - on - year, and the output of its El Teniente copper mine increased by 14%. [3] - As of July 14, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.39 million tons to 14.76 million tons compared with Thursday. [3] Logic Analysis - The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. The LME copper inventory has bottomed out, and the price decline has slightly improved market procurement. [5][7] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for copper is provided in the report. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The alumina 2509 contract fell by 19 yuan to 3,145 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 8,041 lots to 422,200 lots. [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina remained flat, and the prices in most regions were stable, except for a 10 - yuan drop in Xinjiang. [9] Relevant Information - The central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. [10] - A Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina procurement price increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton. [10] - The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 4,803 tons on July 14. [11] - The national alumina production capacity was basically stable, with an increase in weekly output and inventory. [11] Logic Analysis - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13] Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is expected that the alumina price will generally fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply changes of bauxite in Guinea and the "anti - involution" sentiment. [14] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [15] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [15] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell by 300 yuan/ton to 20,415 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 47,247 lots to 644,600 lots. [17] - Spot: The spot price of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and the Central Plains decreased. [17] Relevant Information - The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingots increased by 28,000 tons compared with last Thursday. [18] - The basis of aluminum in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. [18] - China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity in May 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products in June decreased year - on - year. [18] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations, the inventory of aluminum ingots shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The aluminum price may be under pressure in the short - term but should not be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [22] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [22] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 175 yuan to 19,805 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 562 lots to 9,951 lots. [24] - Spot: The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions decreased by 100 yuan/ton. [24] Relevant Information - The output of recycled aluminum alloy in June increased, and the cost of the ADC12 industry increased, resulting in a narrowing of profits. [24][25] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased on July 14. [25] - The weekly output of casting aluminum alloy decreased, and the factory and social inventories showed different trends. [26] - Thailand plans to restrict the establishment and expansion of recycling plants. [26][27] Logic Analysis - Alloy ingot enterprises are restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and downstream die - casting plants have low operating rates. There are some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to follow the high - pressure trend of aluminum prices. [29] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is above 400 yuan. [29] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [29] Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract fell 0.67% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 13,800 lots to 238,300 lots. [31] - Spot: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Shanghai market was between 22,180 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium continued to decline. [31] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased compared with previous data. [32] Logic Analysis - The domestic zinc supply is increasing, and the consumption is entering the off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short positions can be held. [34] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [36] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [36] Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2508 contract fell 0.12% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 1,037 lots to 94,800 lots. [38] - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the transaction was average. [38] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with previous data. [39] - The average operating rate of three - province primary lead smelters decreased last week. [39] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving. Short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range. [41] - Arbitrage: Sell put options. [44] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [41] Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2508 fell by 90 yuan to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,141 lots. [43] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged. [43] Relevant Information - The export of Philippine nickel ore to Indonesia is expected to increase significantly. [45] - GreenMe has solved the problem of refining low - grade nickel ore. [45] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, nickel prices show a volatile trend. [44][45] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for nickel is provided in the report. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 fell by 30 yuan to 12,715 yuan/ton, and the index reduced positions by 5,271 lots. [47] - Spot: The prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [47] Relevant Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved Hongwang Holdings as a delivery warehouse for stainless - steel futures. [48] - The US imposed tariffs on imports from multiple countries and regions. [48][49][50] Logic Analysis - Affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, stainless - steel prices are expected to be weak. [51][53] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - sell when the price is high after the macro - sentiment fades. [54] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [55] - Options: Consider the strategy of selling call options after the price rebounds. [52] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 3.27% to 8,695 yuan/ton. [57] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. [58] Relevant Information - A project in Nanchang is expected to increase the total production capacity by 23,679.23 t/a. [59] Logic Analysis - In July, the production of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons. If leading enterprises do not resume production, the supply and demand will be basically balanced. The price has strengthened recently, and the inventory has shifted from factories to traders. [60] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Bullish in the short - term. [61] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [63] - Options: Exit the short position of Si2509 - C - 8500. [63] Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 41,765 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. [64] - Spot: The average price of some polysilicon products decreased. [64] Relevant Information - The price of domestic photovoltaic silicon wafers increased, and the transaction of battery cells began. [65] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market has many rumors, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 37,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton. [65] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Long - position holders can reduce positions and participate in short - term trading with a light position. [66] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [66] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [66] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose by 2,380 yuan to 66,480 yuan/ton, the index increased positions by 34,081 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 399 tons to 11,204 tons. [67] - Spot: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. [67] Relevant Information - As of the end of June 2025, the number of new - energy vehicles in China increased significantly. [69] - Panasonic postponed the production plan of its battery factory in the US. [69] Logic Analysis - Affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, lithium carbonate prices rose sharply in the short - term and are expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for the opportunity to short on the right - hand side. [71] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [72] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options. [73]

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: "Shanghai Lead May Face Adjustment" [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply of primary and recycled lead is increasing, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. The supply - demand situation of lead is weakening marginally. With the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices is increasing, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7] Group 3: Fundamental Changes Processing Fees - In May 2025, China imported 103,900 tons of lead concentrates, a 6% month - on - month decrease. The domestic lead concentrate imports continued to decline month - on - month but remained at a moderately high level. The supply of domestic concentrates became more tense, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates continued to decline at a low level. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 US dollars/dry ton, also remaining flat week - on - week [3] Supply - In May 2025, the electrolytic lead output was 331,200 tons, a 3.53% month - on - month increase and a 14.7% year - on - year increase. In June (regular maintenance season), most enterprises planned to start maintenance after mid - June, and the reduction was obvious in late June. The output of recycled refined lead in May was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease and a 16.5% year - on - year decrease. In June, the price of waste batteries rebounded, but the profit of recycled lead enterprises did not improve, and the scale of production reduction of recycled lead was still large. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces decreased by 3.78 percentage points to 66.21% week - on - week. In July, some primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance, and the operating rate rebounded significantly this week. Last week, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 34.62%, a 4.96 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week. Last week, the price of waste batteries increased with the rising lead price, and the profit of recycled lead improved. This week, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly downward, and the profit of recycled lead continued to recover. Some recycled lead enterprises were more willing to resume production, and the supply of recycled lead was expected to gradually increase. Recently, the internal - external price ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the lead ingot import window remained closed [4] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces decreased week - on - week. At the end of the year, many large enterprises closed their accounts and reduced or stopped production. The willingness of dealers to take delivery was average during the week. Battery factories actively reduced prices to destock, but the effect was not good. The operating rate of large lead - acid battery enterprises was 63%, slightly lower than the previous week. The inventory of finished batteries was 30 days, and the inventory of raw material lead ingots was 4 days. The operating rate of small and medium - sized battery factories was 60 - 65%, the inventory of finished batteries was 21 days, and the raw material inventory was 4 days. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low [5] Spot and Inventory - As of the week ending June 27, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month's contract decreased, and the premium was 35 yuan at the weekend. The discount of the LME lead spot narrowed slightly, and the discount was 22.14 US dollars at the end of last week. As of the week ending June 27, the weekly inventory of LME lead decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,400 tons. Although the inventory decreased significantly from a high level, it was still at an absolute high level in the past five years. The weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 638 tons to 51,900 tons. As of June 30, the domestic social inventory was 52,300 tons, and the inventory was gradually accumulating. Currently, the social inventory was at a moderately low level [6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased significantly from a high level but remained at an absolute high level in the past five years. The spot discount narrowed slightly, and the supply - demand of overseas lead remained relatively loose. In May, the import volume of lead concentrates continued to decline month - on - month but was still higher than the same period in previous years. The monthly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ores further declined at a low level, and the expectation of tight supply of lead concentrates intensified. In July, many primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance. The price of waste batteries loosened, the profit of recycled lead enterprises was recovering, and the willingness of recycled lead enterprises to resume production was high. It was expected that the short - term tight supply situation of lead would ease. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low, and the spot was quoted at a discount. Overall, the supply of primary and recycled lead increased, the peak - season demand had not started yet, the supply - demand situation of lead weakened marginally, and with the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices increased, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - to - long - term cautious short - selling of far - month contracts or consider reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase [8][10] - Aluminum: Oscillating in a range [11] - Aluminum Alloy: Short - term low - level oscillation, medium - term potential for upward movement [12][14][15] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly, focus on high - short opportunities [15][16] - Lead: Oscillating [16][17][19] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short term [19][20][22] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing US reciprocal tariff game and Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports have led to a cautious market sentiment, causing a decline in the non - ferrous metals market. In the short - to - medium term, tariff uncertainties and weakening demand expectations will suppress prices, with a focus on structural opportunities. In the long term, the demand prospects for non - ferrous metals remain uncertain [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information Analysis**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 tons month - on - month, a 0.3% decline, but increased by 12.93% year - on - year. As of July 7, copper inventory increased by 1.11 tons to 14.29 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's tariff announcement has put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the demand has weakened in the off - season. Inventories have started to accumulate, and the upward momentum of copper prices has cooled. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate [7]. Alumina - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina increased. The government of Guinea proposed GBX and exercised transportation rights. On July 8, alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The Xinjiang railway issued a suspension order from July 7 - 11 [8][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, but the market sentiment has a significant impact. In the long term, the focus is on ore prices. The measures proposed by Guinea may increase costs. In the short term, wait and see; in the medium - to - long term, consider short - selling far - month contracts [8][10]. Aluminum - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the average price of SMM AOO was 20,660 yuan/ton. As of July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, and the warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased [11]. - **Main Logic**: The tariff negotiation deadline has been postponed, but there is still uncertainty. The fundamentals show inventory accumulation, and downstream willingness to buy at high prices has weakened. In the short term, prices will oscillate in a range; in the long term, consumption has potential risks [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. Thailand plans to impose a carbon tax in 2025. In June, the retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is supportive. Demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 will oscillate at a low level; in the medium term, there is potential for upward movement [12][14][15]. Zinc - **Information Analysis**: As of July 9, the spot premium of zinc decreased, and the inventory increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market risk preference has decreased. The supply of zinc ore has loosened, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to decline in the long term [15][16]. Lead - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, the price of waste batteries remained stable, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and SHFE warehouse receipts increased [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: The spot discount has slightly widened, and the supply has increased. The demand for lead - acid batteries has improved slightly. In the short term, prices will oscillate [16][17][19]. Nickel - **Information Analysis**: As of July 9, LME nickel inventory increased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Multiple nickel - related projects have advanced [19][20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [19][20][22]. Stainless Steel - **Information Analysis**: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of nickel iron and chrome iron has declined, and the 300 - series is still in an inverted state [24]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support has weakened, and the demand is out of the peak season. The inventory has decreased, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will oscillate in the short term [24]. Tin - **Information Analysis**: On July 9, LME tin warehouse receipts increased, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The price of tin ingots increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The shortage of tin ore in China is intensifying, and the supply from Indonesia is affected. The supply - demand fundamentals are tightening, but the demand will weaken in the second half of the year. It is expected that tin prices will oscillate [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to move in a volatile trend [1][4][34] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2508 of Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, ranging from around 17,090 yuan/ton to about 17,315 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the price of the LME lead futures contract was running around 2,034 - 2,073 US dollars/ton, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend [11] 2. Spot Analysis - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 17,260 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,075 yuan/ton, 17,080 yuan/ton, and 17,085 yuan/ton respectively [14] - As of July 4, 2025, the premium/discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of June 27, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 900 yuan/metal ton, 800 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively [20] - As of May 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 649,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at an average level compared with the past five years [20] 4. Inventory Situation - As of July 4, 2025, the refined lead inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,303 tons, an increase of 1,374 tons from the previous week [26] - As of July 4, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.34% [26] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The US non - farm payrolls report for June was unexpectedly much stronger than expected. The Fed may adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and the Fed's interest rate cut process may be postponed [3][33] - The lead discount has slightly widened, and the lead processing fee is still in the bottom area [3][33] - Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [3][33] - The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bullish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead - acid battery consumption season is approaching, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is stimulated by rising prices with a significant "buy - on - rising" feature. The improvement of macro - sentiment and the spill - over of risk sentiment will benefit lead prices. For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, it is advisable to conduct long - hedging at dips between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On July 2, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 32.45 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,925 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price spread remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton, waste white - shell at 10,175 yuan/ton, and waste black - shell at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On July 2, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,175 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 27,524 lots, down 3,863 lots. The open interest was 51,254 lots, down 157 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,210 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,235 yuan/ton and closed at 17,270 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the afternoon close. Lead prices stopped falling briefly, downstream enterprises replenished stocks due to rigid demand, and the spot trading of primary lead improved compared to the previous day [2] Inventory - On July 2, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week. As of July 2, the LME lead inventory was 268,150 tons, a decrease of 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish. For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, long - hedging can be carried out at dips between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] Option Strategy - Sell put options at 16,500 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - With the approach of the peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has been stimulated by rising prices, showing a "buying on the rise" pattern. The improvement of macro - sentiment and the spill - over of risk sentiment will benefit lead prices. Therefore, for the SHFE lead 2508 contract, it is advisable to conduct long - hedging on dips in the range of 16,800 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On July 1, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.57 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 1, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 31,387 lots, a decrease of 934 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 51,411 lots, an increase of 3 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,220 yuan/ton and a low of 17,090 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,170 yuan/ton, a 0.20% increase from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On July 1, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 1, the LME lead inventory was 270,075 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, conduct long - hedging on dips in the range of 16,800 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at 16,500 yuan/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market is gradually entering the peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries, and the rising prices have stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm, showing a "buying on the rise" characteristic. The improvement in macro sentiment and the spillover of risk sentiment will benefit lead prices to some extent [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 30, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$22.14/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,105 yuan/ton, closed at 17,200 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,321 lots, a decrease of 8,329 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 51,408 lots, a decrease of 392 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,220 yuan/ton and a low of 17,095 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,170 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On June 30, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of June 30, the LME lead inventory was 271,925 tons, an increase of 175 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, consider buying on dips between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at a strike price of 16,500 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [4] - Alumina: Medium - to long - term oscillating weakly, short - term consider cautious short - selling for far - month contracts [5] - Aluminum: Short - term oscillating, medium - term oscillating weakly [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Spot AD is weak in the off - season, and the futures price is pressured following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [9] - Lead: Oscillating [15] - Nickel: Oscillating weakly in the short - term, suggest long - term position take profit [20] - Stainless Steel: Oscillating in the short - term [25] - Tin: Oscillating [26] 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar hits a new low this year, and non - ferrous metals reach a new high since early April. In the short - to medium - term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weak demand expectations are intertwined, leading non - ferrous metals to oscillate upward. Focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider short - selling opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - The US dollar index declines, and copper prices remain high. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and a major global copper mine initiates mid - year negotiations. China's electrolytic copper production increases. Spot premiums rise, and inventories slightly increase. Macro factors boost copper prices, and supply risks exist while demand is in the off - season. The short - term outlook is high - level oscillation [4] 3.1.2 Alumina - Weekly inventories increase, and the futures spread is high. Spot prices mostly decline, and overseas transactions show price increases. In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore, and the spot price center moves down. The long - term situation is affected by events, and the outlook is medium - to long - term oscillation with a weakening trend [5] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Regional premiums and discounts are differentiated, and the electrolytic aluminum futures oscillate. Prices decline slightly, and inventories show a mixed trend. In the short - term, there is inventory accumulation, and in the medium - term, consumption may face pressure [7] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures oscillate. The off - season pressure on the automotive industry is high, and the electrolytic aluminum situation eases. In the long - term, there is an expected seasonal increase in demand, and the futures price follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [8] 3.1.5 Zinc - The supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rallies. Spot premiums vary, and inventories slightly decline. Macro factors are neutral, supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. The outlook is oscillating weakly [12] 3.1.6 Lead - The off - season of consumption is coming to an end, and lead prices oscillate. Spot prices and inventories show certain changes. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is recovering. The outlook is oscillation [15] 3.1.7 Nickel - Market sentiment improves, and long - term positions should be gradually taken profit. LME and domestic inventories change, and there are various industry developments. Market sentiment dominates, and the industry fundamentals are weakening. The short - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [20] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - The expectation of supply contraction increases, and the futures price continues to rise. Futures and spot prices change, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore is affected by the rainy season. Cost support weakens, and the short - term outlook is range - bound oscillation [25] 3.1.9 Tin - Supply disturbances reappear, and tin prices oscillate. Warehouse receipts and spot prices change. The supply from the main producing areas is tight, and the fundamentals are resilient. The outlook is oscillation [26] 3.2行情监测 - The document does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-26 现货市场地域性成交有所好转 铅价突破万七关口 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-06-25，LME铅现货升水为-24.13美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16925 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至-35.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化200 元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16925元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化225元/吨至17025元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至10250元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10500 元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-25，沪铅主力合约开于17000元/吨，收于17165元/吨，较前一交易日变化210元/吨，全天交易 日成交36222手，较前一交易日变化1819手，全天交易日持仓15153手，手较前一交易日变化-4407手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17200元/ ...