Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Option: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of the lead variety is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise in the non - ferrous sector, the demand off - season becomes even weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 yuan in January 2026 [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 5, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.54/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 5, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,365 yuan/ton and closed at 17,395 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,065 lots, a change of - 39,893 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 47,544 lots, a change of 2,132 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,480 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,300 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,385 yuan/ton and closed at 17,455 yuan/ton, a 0.34% increase from the previous afternoon's close. The SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures fluctuated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in成交. Traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventory was low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory sources were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for成交 [2] Inventory - On January 5, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 19,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 236,900 tons, a change of - 2,600 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by macroeconomic factors, structural demand growth, and supply constraints, with a notable increase in lead prices and trading volumes [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - Domestic and international market sentiments are generally positive, supported by China's "14th Five-Year Plan" for stable growth and green consumption policies, alongside favorable conditions in the U.S. stock market and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. - The overall low global inventory levels and supply disruptions in major producing regions such as Chile, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are amplifying price elasticity [1]. Group 2: Supply Side Dynamics - There is a structural contradiction in the supply side characterized by a divergence between primary and secondary lead. Primary lead production is recovering, but tight supply of lead concentrate and low processing fees are squeezing smelting profits [2]. - The recycling sector is facing challenges due to high prices of scrap batteries, leading to a significant drop in operational rates to around 38% [2]. - Continuous net imports are exacerbating domestic supply pressures [2]. Group 3: Demand Side Dynamics - The demand side is currently in a seasonal lull, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by necessity. The overall operating rate in the lead-acid battery industry has declined to approximately 65% due to inventory destocking by vehicle manufacturers and the end of the transition period for new standards in electric bicycles [2]. - Factors such as year-end accounting and high finished goods inventory are suppressing purchasing intentions, resulting in a market characterized by "high prices but low activity" [2]. Group 4: Price Outlook - Short-term lead prices are expected to be influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand contradictions within the industry. The release of inventory pressure from smelting plants may exert downward pressure on prices, while low social inventory provides some support [3]. - Prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating with a slight upward bias, with future direction dependent on macro policy developments and substantial changes in industry chain inventory [3].

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅上涨，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报17365元，高点17480元，低点17300 元，结算价报17400元，收盘17395元/吨，涨115元，涨幅0.67%。伦铅最新价报2020美元，涨26美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报17290-17390元/吨，均价17340元，涨140元；广东现货 市场1#铅报17260-17360元/吨，均价17310元，涨100元。今日现货铅市场报价在17200-17390元/吨之 间，对比沪期铅2601合约贴水205-贴水15元/吨。ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价上涨，宏观层面呈 现"内外分化，情绪主导"特征。国内元旦消费数据回暖与绿色消费政策提供情绪支撑，但春节前流动性 季节性收紧抑制投机，加之超1.3万亿元逆回购到期加剧资金面担忧。海外方面，美联储降息预期与美 元波动形成潜在支撑，而美国在委内瑞拉等地缘动作推升资源供应不确定性，避险情绪带动铅价被动跟 涨，然宏观利好尚未转化为实质性驱动。 供应端：分化显著，库存压力凸显 原生铅开工率回升至超60%，但交割品牌厂库单周激增，显性库存压力扩大。再生铅受环保管控、原料 废 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant divergence within the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints, leading to a strong performance in copper, aluminum, and precious metals, while lead prices show a weak rebound lacking fundamental support [1][2] - The surge in copper and aluminum prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions from key production areas, which have created a narrative of scarcity in industrial metals, further fueled by positive market sentiment and capital inflows [1][3] - Lead prices experienced a daily increase of 125 yuan/ton to 17,425 yuan/ton; however, this rebound is characterized as "virtual fire," primarily driven by market sentiment rather than improvements in the underlying fundamentals, as evidenced by weak demand and increasing inventory pressures [1][2] Group 2 - Leading companies in the sector are adopting different strategies in response to market conditions, with copper, aluminum, and precious metals firms focusing on capacity expansion and resource allocation, while lead industry players are concentrating on cost control and cash flow management to navigate the current phase of industry pressure [2][3] - The short-term outlook suggests that copper and aluminum prices are likely to remain strong due to supportive supply narratives and macroeconomic expectations, while lead prices are expected to face downward pressure from rising inventories and weak demand, with a projected trading range of 17,100 to 17,500 yuan/ton [3][4] - The overall market for non-ferrous metals is characterized by a mix of strong and weak performances, necessitating a careful approach to investment opportunities, particularly in distinguishing between strong commodities like copper and aluminum and weaker ones like lead [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-31 市场交投相对清淡 铅价预计维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-30，LME铅现货升水为-43.70美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17300 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100元/ 吨至17300元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17300元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-75元/吨至17325元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-125元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-30，沪铅主力合约开于17465元/吨，收于17505元/吨，较前一交易日变化15元/吨，全天交易日 成交69782手，较前一交易日变化-14987手，全天交易日持仓53891手，手较前一交易日变化-584手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17635元/吨，最低点达到17 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand situations, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Market: LME was absent during Christmas, while domestic Shanghai copper increased positions to a record level, with the price reaching a maximum of 102,000 yuan, and LME copper jumped to a maximum of 12,900 dollars after opening. The high price may face adjustment pressure but could also benefit from raw material shortages and other factors. The target price is adjusted upwards, with LME copper at about 13,100 dollars and Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [1]. - Domestic Supply - Demand: The SMM spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong widened, and the social inventory increased. High copper prices affected the pre - Spring Festival start - up of copper - related intermediate products, but overseas price differences mitigated the impact of the domestic off - season [1]. - Overseas: Congo (Kinshasa) suspended the processing of artisanal copper and cobalt mines, and waiting for overseas investment banks to update the 2026 copper target price [1]. - Strategy: Observe or try an option combination of selling call options at an exercise price of 104,000 yuan and buying put options at 98,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Industry: Policy guidance on alumina and copper smelting industries was issued, but it will take time to implement. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is slowly increasing, while the supply of alumina is in surplus and needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize [1]. - Demand: The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 60.8%, and the apparent consumption was basically flat year - on - year [1]. - Inventory and Spot: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, and spot discounts widened. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods remained stable [1]. - Trend: Shanghai aluminum follows the sector's fluctuations, with limited fundamental drivers, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Bulls can participate based on the MA40 daily line [1]. Zinc - Market: The external market was in high - level shock last week, and Shanghai zinc repeatedly tested 23,000 yuan. The supply is tight, but the end - of - year consumption is weak [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME inventory increased, and the squeeze - out atmosphere declined. Domestic and imported ore TC decreased, and the zinc concentrate import window opened. The supply - side pressure decreased, and there is strong support at around 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc [1]. - Consumption: After the zinc price fell slightly last week, downstream restocking increased, and the start - up rate rebounded. The market is not pessimistic about January's zinc consumption [1]. - Trend: With strong cost support, reduced supply - side pressure, and resilient consumption expectations, Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - Market: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose 4% last week but encountered resistance at around 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot and Supply: LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the spot import window opened. The supply of primary and secondary lead has different situations, and the overall supply tension has not been alleviated [1]. - Consumption: Most battery enterprises stopped purchasing raw lead ingots at the end of the year, and the spot trading was light [1]. - Trend: Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Futures: Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures had active trading after rising [1]. - Macro and Demand: The 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia decreased significantly, and the downstream purchasing willingness weakened at the end of the year. The profit of stainless steel was repaired, and the social inventory decreased [1]. - Spot and Supply: The premiums of different nickel products varied, and the upstream prices began to rebound. The inventories of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel all decreased [1]. - Strategy: Wait for the end of market disturbances and mainly observe in the short term [1]. Tin - Market: The tin market fluctuated at a high level last week, and the market sentiment followed silver and copper prices [1]. - Supply: There is a lack of new information on the situation in eastern Congo (Kinshasa), and attention should be paid to the mining conference in Wa State around the New Year [1]. - Consumption: High tin prices suppressed consumption, and the domestic social inventory increased [1]. - Trend: High - level risks are emphasized. It is recommended to participate in selling out - of - the - money call options with an exercise price of 350,000 yuan and pay attention to the callback range [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures: The lithium carbonate futures rose sharply last week and then tumbled on Monday [1]. - Spot: The spot price of Shanghai electric carbon strengthened, but the market trading was light. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited [1]. - Macro and Demand: The demand maintained strong resilience, but the downstream demand decreased slightly this month [1]. - Supply: The total market inventory decreased, and the ore price was strong [1]. - Trend: The lithium carbonate futures price limit - down on Monday, entering the trend - stopping stage, and risk prevention should be noted [1]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward, driven by the expected end - of - month production cuts and the demand for price support at low prices [1]. - Cost: The price of silicon coal, the core raw material, remained stable [1]. - Supply - Demand: The weekly supply decreased slightly, and the start - up rates in major production areas declined. The production of polysilicon and the start - up rate of organic silicon DMC have different situations [1]. - Inventory: The social inventory in major areas increased slightly [1]. - Trend: The demand still has pressure, but the decline has narrowed. The futures price may remain firm, but the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - Price: The futures price rose and then fell last week, with policy support but also affected by regulatory strengthening and the approaching holiday. The spot price increased slightly [1]. - Supply - Demand: The supply increased slightly, and the demand was affected by rising auxiliary material costs. The price increase has not led to actual transactions [1]. - Inventory: The manufacturer's inventory increased [1]. - Trend: The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" game, and the futures price will probably fluctuate at a high level. Risk control should be noted [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rebound of lead prices may temporarily end as both buyers and sellers are observing the market near the year - end. The demand side is weak except for the automotive battery sector, but the lead variety is likely to be affected by the overall strong pattern of the non - ferrous sector. So, a neutral attitude is recommended for operation, with an operation range of 17150 - 17850 yuan/ton [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 37.81 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose 200 yuan/ton to 17375 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed 25 yuan/ton to - 25.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot changed 175 yuan/ton to 17400 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot changed 175 yuan/ton to 17375 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed 225 yuan/ton to 17400 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries rose 25 yuan/ton to 9950 yuan/ton, waste white shells remained unchanged at 10050 yuan/ton, and waste black shells rose 25 yuan/ton to 10350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17460 yuan/ton, closed at 17490 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 84769 lots, an increase of 26000 lots, and the position was 54475 lots, a decrease of 1083 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 17645 yuan/ton and the lowest at 17415 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17465 yuan/ton and closed at 17380 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 1.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from last week. As of December 29, the LME lead inventory was 244275 tons, a decrease of 4625 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended for lead investment, with an operation range of 17150 - 17850 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The lead price in the Changjiang spot market has shown a healthy upward trend, closing at 17,350 CNY/ton, marking a cumulative increase of 400 CNY/ton over the week, with an average price of 17,190 CNY/ton, up 80 CNY from the previous week, driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental support [4][5]. Macroeconomic Factors - The strong rise in lead prices is attributed to four macroeconomic drivers: 1. Strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like metals [5]. 2. Significant appreciation of the RMB, lowering import costs for raw materials and enhancing domestic investors' preference for RMB-denominated assets [5]. 3. Continuous supportive policies from the government, including signals of monetary easing and initiatives to boost consumption, which have bolstered confidence in economic recovery and industrial demand [5]. 4. Improvement in initial jobless claims data in the U.S., alleviating concerns about a deep global economic recession and increasing risk appetite [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lead market is currently in a "weak balance" state, characterized by rigid supply and elastic demand: - Supply constraints are due to structural shortages in lead concentrate and challenges in recycling during winter, leading to insufficient supply elasticity and low social inventory, which supports prices [6]. - Demand shows a mixed picture, with traditional sectors like electric bicycles and automotive batteries remaining stable, while new energy vehicles pose long-term replacement pressure on lead-acid batteries. Emerging sectors like energy storage are expected to provide incremental space but have not yet significantly impacted the overall demand [6]. - The industry's profit is shifting towards upstream mining, while midstream and downstream sectors face challenges balancing cost pressures and end prices [6]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the market will navigate through the interplay of policy, liquidity, and reality: - The focus will be on the Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting minutes to validate the interest rate cut path for 2026, with any dovish signals likely to reinforce the narrative of a weak dollar and ample liquidity [7]. - Domestic policies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" are expected to drive growth, with a dual focus on "new productive forces" and expanding domestic demand, serving as key engines for the market [7]. - The lead market is anticipated to remain in a typical "weak balance" state, with supply constraints and low social inventory supporting price floors, while demand lacks explosive drivers. The lead price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,500 to 17,900 CNY/ton, exhibiting characteristics of "top and bottom" [7]. Investment Strategy - For investors, this period represents a critical window for positioning in 2026: - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, focusing on offensive investments in sectors aligned with "new productive forces" such as AI and commercial aerospace, while defensive allocations should include high-dividend blue-chip stocks to mitigate volatility [8]. - The trading logic is shifting from mere expectation-based speculation to a deeper validation of policy effectiveness and fundamental data, emphasizing the need for sensitivity to reality while embracing trends to seize opportunities in the year-end market [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - Lead prices are oscillating at a low level. The continuous decline in inventory and production cuts in secondary lead provide support, but the spot market is weak at the end of the year. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Hedging operations can be carried out by buying or selling within this range [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On December 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$37.81/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells increased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,325 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,215 yuan/ton and closed at 17,315 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 55,100 lots, a decrease of 12,922 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 56,328 lots, a decrease of 210 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with a high of 17,345 yuan/ton and a low of 17,205 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,265 yuan/ton, basically flat compared to the afternoon close. The SMM 1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures oscillated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. With the continuous decline of lead prices, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stockpiling at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally weak spot market [2] Inventory - On December 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 18,000 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to trade within the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton by buying or selling for hedging. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4][5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Lead prices are oscillating at low levels, with declining inventories and reduced production of secondary lead providing support, but the spot market is weakening towards the year - end. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,100 yuan per ton. In actual operations, it is currently recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On December 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.89 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan to 1,6875 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Henan, and Tianjin lead spot prices and premiums also changed by 50 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan per ton, while the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells changed by 50 yuan, 25 yuan, and 0 yuan per ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On December 23, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,920 yuan per ton and closed at 16,995 yuan per ton, up 75 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 44,610 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 58,086 lots, a decrease of 1,500 lots. During the night session, it opened at 17,030 yuan per ton and closed at 17,050 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan from the afternoon close. Near the end of the year, some traders stopped trading for inventory checks after selling out their stocks, and downstream buyers mainly consumed inventories or took delivery of long - term contracts, resulting in overall light market trading [2] - **Inventory**: On December 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the previous week. As of December 23, the LME lead inventory was 253,100 tons, a decrease of 2,675 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to mainly conduct sell - hedging on rallies. The expected trading range for the main contract is 16,750 - 17,100 yuan per ton [4] - **Options Strategy**: Sell a wide straddle [4]