Report Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - The non - ferrous sector is strong, driving up the lead price. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [1][3] Market News and Key Data Spot - On December 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.64 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1] Futures - On December 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 17,240 yuan/ton, closed at 17,245 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,288 lots, up 10,271 lots, and the position was 46,582 lots, down 45 lots. The night - session closed at 17,305 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton. The price difference between futures and spot narrowed slightly, and the market trading was okay [2] Inventory - On December 4, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 24,000 tons, down 7,100 tons from last week. The LME lead inventory was 248,050 tons, down 5,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Absolute price: Maintain a neutral view. In the fourth quarter, the resumption of recycled lead production was less than expected, primary lead producers were reluctant to sell due to maintenance, and the industry chain maintained low inventory. The negative lead concentrate processing fee provided effective cost support. The battery production increased month - on - month but the terminal demand was average, and the closure of the import window weakened the overseas impact. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3]

Report Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - In the fourth quarter, the resumption of secondary lead production fell short of expectations, and primary lead producers carried out maintenance and were reluctant to sell, resulting in low inventories in the industry chain. The negative processing fees for lead concentrates provided effective cost support. The operating rate of lead-acid batteries rebounded month-on-month, but the terminal demand was average. The closure of the import window reduced the impact from overseas. Overall, the lead market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. Price fluctuations were expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On December 2, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.63/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,225 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On December 2, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,145 yuan/ton and closed at 17,210 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,077 lots, an increase of 13,295 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 47,601 lots, an increase of 414 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,230 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,170 yuan/ton and closed at 17,165 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 2, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 256,950 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy Absolute Price Strategy - Neutral, with price fluctuations expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - Sell wide straddle [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy for the lead market is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead ore is continuously tight, and the processing fee remains low. The operating rates of primary and secondary lead are both at low levels, resulting in limited supply pressure. The consumption side remains stable, with no strong recovery signals. Due to the impact of large orders in the market, the lead price once dropped significantly. In this situation, it is recommended to mainly short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$40.08/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day to 16,900 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,060 yuan/ton and closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 57,305 lots, an increase of 17,118 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 48,129 lots, a decrease of 904 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,075 yuan/ton and a minimum of 15,885 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,990 yuan/ton and closed at 16,980 yuan/ton, a 0.47% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On November 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 264,175 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous trading day [2]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 市场观望情绪相对浓重 铅价震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-25，LME铅现货升水为-28.49美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/ 吨至17075元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10300元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-25，沪铅主力合约开于17115元/吨，收于17045元/吨，较前一交易日变化-90元/吨，全天交易日 成交40496手，较前一交易日变化2076手，全天交易日持仓52466手，手较前一交易日变化-422手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17130元/吨，最低点达到1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 市场成交依然偏淡 铅价弱势运行 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-24，LME铅现货升水为-22.41美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17075元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至 17150元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至17075元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至17075元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-24，沪铅主力合约开于17195元/吨，收于17135元/吨，较前一交易日变化-30元/吨，全天交易日 成交38420手，较前一交易日变化-1713手，全天交易日持仓52888手，手较前一交易日变化-2218手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17230元/吨，最低点达到17115元/吨。夜盘 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 市场成交清淡 铅价延续震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-19，LME铅现货升水为-28.21美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至17100 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/ 吨至17175元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至17100元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-100元/吨至17100元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-19，沪铅主力合约开于17225元/吨，收于17250元/吨，较前一交易日变化20元/吨，全天交易日 成交17225手，较前一交易日变化-8860手，全天交易日持仓17250手，手较前一交易日变化-5231手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17265元/吨，最低点达到17170元 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 现货成交呈现区域性差异 铅价呈现震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-18，LME铅现货升水为-16.88美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至17150 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100 元/吨至17225元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至17150元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-125元/吨至17200元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至 10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-18，沪铅主力合约开于17365元/吨，收于17230元/吨，较前一交易日变化-125元/吨，全天交易 日成交55068手，较前一交易日变化-19523手，全天交易日持仓69126手，手较前一交易日变化-5459手，日内价格 震荡，最高点达到 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is characterized by tight supply at the mine end and differentiated consumption, with continuous inventory accumulation before delivery. The lead price is constrained by weak demand and high inventory on the upside and supported by cost on the downside. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, with the price range roughly between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton. For options, selling a wide straddle is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Section Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 17, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.09/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap spread remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On November 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,520 yuan/ton and closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 74,591 lots, an increase of 37,245 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 74,585 lots, an increase of 36,168 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,520 yuan/ton and a low of 17,310 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,345 yuan/ton and closed at 17,250 yuan/ton, a 0.83% decrease from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On November 17, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 17, the LME lead inventory was 266,125 tons, an increase of 43,650 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Given the tight supply at the mine end, differentiated consumption, and continuous inventory accumulation before delivery, the lead price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the inventory depletion rhythm, with the price range roughly between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton. For options, selling a wide straddle is recommended [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Low inventory and tight ore supply support lead prices, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the decline in battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may cause the price to fall after rising. High - sell and low - buy strategies can be adopted, with the price range between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On November 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$20.89/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17,485 yuan/ton, closed at 17,660 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 55,843 lots, an increase of 24,988 lots, and the holding volume was 50,539 lots, a decrease of 4,568 lots. The night - session closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream battery enterprises mainly took delivery through long - term contracts, and the market trading was fair [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 12, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 33,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared with last week. As of November 12, the LME lead inventory was 225,225 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - **Absolute price strategy**: Adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy in the price range of 17,000 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations [3]. - **Option strategy**: Sell wide straddle [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The research report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost - profit analysis [1][9][17] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,840 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. Spot trading improved slightly, with different premiums in different regions [1] - **Important Information**: Weak ADP employment data in the US, potential end of government shutdown, and production changes in some copper mines [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose macro - environment, tight supply in the short - term, and demand supported by power grid tenders [2][4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for one - sided trading, long - term bullish; possible phased rebound in ratio for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [5][6][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina fell 5 yuan to 2,821 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [9] - **Related Information**: Procurement prices in different regions, government actions in Guinea, production capacity changes, and cost data [10][11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand surplus, expected reduction in production, but new investment pressure at the end of the year [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebound, beware of selling pressure; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 190 yuan to 21,880 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [18] - **Related Information**: US economic data, government shutdown news, inventory changes, and production capacity changes [18][19][21] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight overseas supply, and domestic demand with certain resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a volatile and strong trend for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [23][24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of casting aluminum alloy rose 175 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton, and spot prices showed different trends [26] - **Related Information**: US economic data, cost - profit data, and changes in warehouse receipts [26][27] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight waste aluminum supply, and cost support [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong along with aluminum prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai zinc fell 0.18% to 22,680 yuan/ton, and spot trading was cold [33] - **Related Information**: Processing fee guidance price, inventory changes, and production reduction expectations in mines and smelters [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Tight supply at the mine end, reduced smelter profits, and limited upward space [35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for one - sided trading; hold SHFE - LME arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai lead rose 0.97% to 17,660 yuan/ton, and spot trading was okay [39] - **Related Information**: Inventory changes, profit conditions of recycling enterprises, and supply of recycled lead [40] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, demand is weakening, and prices are under pressure [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high levels for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 fell 740 to 118,710 yuan/ton, and spot premiums changed [44][45] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's policy on nickel smelters [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose supply - demand, limited rebound, and expected weakening in the off - season [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 95 to 12,425 yuan/ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [52] - **Important Information**: Decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and export price cuts by Indonesian enterprises [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Weak trading atmosphere, abundant cold - rolled supply, and downward - trending costs [53][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage [56][57] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 292,440 yuan/ton, up 1.75%, and spot prices rose [59] - **Related Information**: US economic data and decline in Indonesian tin exports [60] - **Logic Analysis**: Potential end of US government shutdown, tight supply at the mine end, and slow demand recovery [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices may test previous highs; wait - and - see for options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy consumption and regulation [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced demand for polysilicon, increased power prices in some areas, and limited upward space [66] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation for one - sided trading; long Si2512 and short Si2601 for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: News about the potential establishment of a storage platform [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced supply and demand, marginal improvement in supply - demand, and short - term range - bound [70] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation and buy at low levels for one - sided trading; long PS2512 and short PS2601 for arbitrage; no suggestion for options [72][73][74] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate fell 180 to 86,580 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose [76] - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy, progress of a lithium salt project, and growth in global energy storage cell shipments [77] - **Logic Analysis**: Increased demand and supply - side disturbances support high - level prices [78] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level operation in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the money put options [79][80][82]