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铅产业链周度报告-20250817
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 11:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead supply is under pressure, and the consumption of lead-acid batteries has not improved. The price is expected to fluctuate. The supply side is the core logic, with strong price support at the bottom. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash-and-carry arbitrage in Shanghai lead [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,780 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of -0.42%. The LME lead 3-month contract decreased by 1.70%. The LME lead (0 - 3) spot premium decreased by 11.95 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The spread between regenerated lead and primary lead remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton. The contango structure of Shanghai lead has narrowed [9]. - **Inventory**: From August 7th to August 15th, domestic lead inventory increased slightly from 71,100 tons to 71,700 tons. The inventory of Shanghai lead 09 contract is relatively high, and the spot discount has narrowed. The LME lead inventory decreased by 7,275 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 3.79% [8][9]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 32,601 lots, an increase of 1,593 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 51,207 lots, a decrease of 7,916 lots. The trading volume of the LME 3-month lead contract was 3,833 lots, a decrease of 1,522 lots. The position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [9]. Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Regenerated Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The weekly average of the 60% lead concentrate spot import TC was -80 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of imported lead concentrate was -1,652 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the profit was -2,500 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead is under pressure. Although the smelting enterprises in Henan have resumed normal production after maintenance, the smelting maintenance in Liaoning, Hunan, Jiangxi and other places has affected part of the output. The weekly average of the primary lead smelting enterprise operating rate has decreased [8]. - **Regenerated Lead**: The regenerated lead has been in a loss state for a long time, with a loss of about 423 yuan/ton, and the loss has widened compared to the previous week. The regenerated lead enterprises in Guizhou, Jiangsu, Ningxia and other places have carried out maintenance, affecting part of the output. The operating rate of regenerated lead is at a historical low [5][8]. - **Import and Export**: The refined lead net import volume, lead ingot import volume, and lead ingot export volume are provided in the report, and the lead spot import profit and loss has changed [47]. Lead Demand: Lead-Acid Batteries and End-Users - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The current consumption of lead-acid batteries is average, and the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises is stable. Large battery factories have started to reduce prices to pressure inventory on dealers. However, the market expects the consumption to pick up after September, and the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises may increase, and they will increase raw material inventory on dips [8]. - **End-Users**: The actual lead consumption, automobile production, and motorcycle production data are provided in the report, reflecting the end-user demand situation [52].
市场成交相对清淡,铅价偏弱震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 06:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market shows relatively light trading and the lead price is oscillating weakly. The lead market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to remain in an oscillating range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [1][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 14, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.01/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts in different regions also changed. The lead refined scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste batteries remained stable [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 14, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 45,616 lots, an increase of 16,679 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 51,370 lots, an increase of 1,946 lots compared to the previous trading day. The night - session closing price decreased by 0.06% compared to the afternoon closing price [1] - **Inventory**: On August 14, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the LME lead inventory was 261,675 tons, a decrease of 550 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The lead price may remain in an oscillating pattern, and the recommended option strategy is to sell wide straddles [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游补库积极性仍有限,铅价震荡回落-20250814
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 07:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, failing to reflect the characteristics of the traditional peak demand season. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 - 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On August 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$38.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On August 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,940 yuan/ton, closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,937 lots, down 1,049 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 49,424 lots, down 1,799 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 16,975 yuan/ton and the lowest at 16,865 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,880 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders offered at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 170 - 110 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with limited supply of low - priced goods. In the Hunan region, smelters offered at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered at a discount of 170 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, but the trading was relatively light. In the Jiangxi region, holders offered at a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or at a discount of 120 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. The lead futures weakened during the day, and some holders near the delivery date stopped offering and preferred to deliver to the warehouse. Downstream buyers made rigid purchases at low prices, and the overall market trading improved limitedly [2] Inventory - On August 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous week. As of August 13, the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:持货商存在挺价情绪,价格维持震荡格局-20250812
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 06:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - The lead market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile range between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.29/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead prices in different regions showed varying changes, with the SMM Shanghai lead spot premium unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price up 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium up 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined-waste price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures Market - On August 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,885 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 35,623 lots, up 4,615 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 54,395 lots, down 4,728 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,950 yuan/ton and a low of 16,820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,855 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On August 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, down 110,000 tons from the same period last week. As of August 11, the LME lead inventory was 265,800 tons, down 2,575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]
市场成交有所好转,静候需求旺季兑现
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 05:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [3] - Option strategy: Sell puts Group 2: Core View of the Report - After a long - term sideways pattern, the current spot trading of lead is gradually improving, and there seems to be a chance for the peak - season demand to be gradually realized [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On August 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.92/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. Different regional lead spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes. The lead scrap price differential remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and scrap battery prices were stable [1] - **Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,750 yuan/ton, closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 48,645 lots, up 8,512 lots, and the position was 65,019 lots, down 7,064 lots. The night - session closing price rose 0.18% from the afternoon closing price [1] - **Inventory**: On August 6, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, down 110,000 tons from last week. As of August 6, the LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, down 4,375 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Absolute price operation**: Temporarily focus on buying hedging on dips, with the recommended buying range at 16,600 - 16,650 yuan/ton [3]
铅周报:沪铅或以震荡偏强运行-20250804
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:05
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2509 of Shanghai lead futures showed a weak oscillating trend, ranging from around 16,615 yuan/ton to about 17,085 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts was around 1,961 - 2,037 US dollars/ton, showing an oscillating and weakening trend [13] 2. Spot Analysis - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,460 yuan/ton, 16,565 yuan/ton, and 16,480 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 400 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 660,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [22] 4. Inventory Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, an increase of 29 tons from the previous week. As of August 1, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 275,325 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 26.73% [28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive "standstill" in 2025. Global lead supply and demand are basically balanced, with both lead consumption and lead supply decreasing. Global lead mine production continues to grow. Lead processing fees have changed little and remain at a low level. Lead production has maintained year - on - year growth and ended the month - on - month decline. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][34] 6. Future Outlook - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35]
新能源及有色金属日报:铅价回落之际,下游采购积极性有所回升-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] Core Viewpoints - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver ore is also low, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing outstandingly, with the operating rates of related enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. The lead price is currently treated with a volatile mindset, with the Pb2506 contract ranging from 16,500 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On July 31, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -36.37 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton, 10,175 yuan/ton, and 10,525 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On July 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,885 yuan/ton and closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 53,359 lots, an increase of 16,041 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 72,631 lots, an increase of 5,890 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,905 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,710 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,705 yuan/ton and closed at 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers quoted flat to the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 150 - 130 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quoted premiums continued to decline, with some delivery brand smelters being negotiated to a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton, and traders quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. As the lead price fluctuated weakly, some smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices and maintained firm quotes, while others lowered premiums to sell. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand at low prices, and the spot market trading improved, but those with firm prices had difficulty in making transactions [2] Inventory - On July 31, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 73,000 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of July 31, the LME lead inventory was 276,500 tons, an increase of 125 tons compared to the previous trading day [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游仍以刚需为主,铅价继续震荡-20250731
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market currently has a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some areas of primary lead production, but overall terminal demand has not shown significant improvement, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, under the overall positive macro - sentiment, lead prices in the non - ferrous metals sector may not experience a larger decline and are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Content Market News and Key Data - **Spot Market**: On July 30, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 31.80 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The lead spot premiums and prices in different regions also changed. The lead scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16870 yuan/ton, closed at 16890 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37318 lots, down 10660 lots from the previous day, and the holding volume was 66741 lots, up 2207 lots from the previous day. During the night session, the closing price was basically flat compared with the afternoon closing price [1] Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Supply and Demand**: The lead price fluctuated weakly, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs. The transaction in the spot market remained relatively light. In different regions, the quotation premiums of lead suppliers varied, and some smelters had difficulties in high - premium transactions or stopped quoting due to inventory exhaustion [2] - **Inventory**: On July 30, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 30, the LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, an increase of 6025 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Price Strategy**: The lead price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [3]
永安期货有色早报-20250730
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 05:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - For copper, the current demand is seasonally weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment motivation, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained on Shanghai copper, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly from January to May, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand. Inventory may continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, as well as far - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage opportunities under the low - inventory pattern [1][2]. - For zinc, the price fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. - For stainless steel, supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. - For lead, the price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. - For tin, the price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased from 180 to 110, and the warehouse receipt increased by 251. The spot import profit increased by 216.25, and the three - month import profit increased by 203.83 [1]. - **Analysis**: The demand is currently weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but long - term bullish view is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 40, and the domestic alumina price increased by 1. The social inventory showed a small change, and the exchange inventory remained the same [1]. - **Analysis**: Supply increased slightly from January to May, August is a seasonal off - season for demand, and inventory may continue to accumulate slightly. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the zinc price fluctuated narrowly. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,350. The import profit of Shanghai zinc increased [5]. - **Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and inventories at home and abroad show different trends. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see, pay attention to commodity sentiment, and manage positions. Inside - outside positive arbitrage can be held, and attention can be paid to month - spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 900. The import profit of spot nickel decreased by 660.34 [6]. - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories at home and abroad are stable. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [6]. - **Analysis**: Supply has been reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories have decreased slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to policy trends [6][7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot premium of lead increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,700. The import profit of spot lead increased by 71.14 [8]. - **Analysis**: The price declined slightly this week. Supply and demand have small changes, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [8][9]. Tin - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the spot import profit of tin decreased by 2,016.08, and the LME inventory increased by 35. The LME C - 3M increased by 31 [12]. - **Analysis**: The price fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August, demand is weak, and the domestic market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. Short - term suggestions are to wait and see or short - sell lightly at high prices [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the 421 Yunnan basis and 421 Sichuan basis changed, and the 553 East China basis and 553 Tianjin basis also changed. The number of warehouse receipts changed slightly [15]. - **Analysis**: The production of Hesheng may change the supply - demand balance. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly, the disk is expected to fluctuate. If the resumption of production accelerates, the supply will be in excess, and the price may decline [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From July 23 to 29, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 750, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 700. The basis of the main contract increased by 1,530 [17]. - **Analysis**: The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. The trading focus has shifted to potential supply disturbances. If the risks are resolved, the price may remain low and fluctuate [17].
现货市场清淡,铅价仍陷震荡格局
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:49
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some primary lead production areas, but overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season demand signal is not obvious. However, with the overall positive macro - sentiment, lead prices in the non - ferrous sector may not decline further and are expected to remain in a range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On July 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.31 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,985 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 47,978 lots, down 24,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 64,534 lots, down 6,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,015 yuan/ton and a low of 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,870 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic lead futures market was weakly volatile, and different regions had different pricing strategies. Lead prices continued to weaken, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the spot market was generally weak [2] Inventory - On July 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of July 29, the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4][5]