【长江现货金属点评：铝价微幅走强 多数品种承压调整】 截至2026年1月9日上午，长江现货市场基本金属价格走势分化。A00铝成为日内唯一上涨品种，而铜、 锌、铅、锡、镍价格均出现不同幅度下跌，其中镍、锡跌幅尤为显著，市场整体情绪偏于谨慎。 以下为各品种具体分析： 铜价显著回调：长江现货1#铜报100,680元/吨，较前一日下跌1,940元。价格回调主要受短期宏观情绪压 制，强势美元与市场对美联储降息节奏预期的调整，对金融属性较强的铜价形成直接压力。尽管长期供 应紧张逻辑未变，但节后需求进入传统淡季，短期价格面临调整压力。 铝价独获支撑：长江现货A00铝报24,030元/吨，微涨30元。在多数品种下跌的背景下，铝价展现出较强 韧性。这主要得益于其明确的长期供需格局（能源约束供应、新能源需求支撑）以及相对较低的社会库 存水平，价格底部支撑坚实。 锌价小幅走弱：长江现货0#锌及1#锌分别报24,050元/吨和23,950元/吨，均下跌150元。锌价走势反映了 当前市场对传统领域需求偏弱的担忧。在供应端相对平稳的情况下，价格上行缺乏强劲驱动，短期以跟 随宏观情绪震荡为主。 铅价同步回落：长江现货1#铅报17,350元 ...

2026年首个交易日，有色金属板块在地缘冲突与供应扰动的双重刺激下全线冲高，但内部强弱分化显 著。一边是铜、铝及贵金属在避险情绪与供需偏紧格局下强势领涨，另一边铅价虽被动跟涨，据长江有 色金属网获悉，今日长江现货市场1#铅跟风突发反弹，均价涨125元/吨至17425元/吨，但现货成交寡 淡、贴水扩大的细节暴露反弹"虚火"，在累库压力与需求疲软的基本面制约下，震荡偏弱格局难改。 铅价虽实现125元/吨的日度反弹，但其驱动力主要来自板块情绪传导与期货盘面拉动，而非自身基本面 改善。现货市场成交清淡、贴水扩大，反映出下游接受度有限。更为关键的是，节后累库压力显著，原 生铅库存周增幅超100%，而铅蓄电池等行业仍处淡季，新能源领域需求尚未形成有效替代，供需结构 对价格构成持续压制。 总结： 一、板块普涨背后的双引擎：地缘风险与供应约束 2026年有色金属市场开局即呈现"整体有热度，内部有冷热"的特征。在把握铜铝等强势品种机会的同 时，也需理性辨别如铅等品种基本面与价格走势的背离，避免盲目跟风。后续应重点关注地缘局势演 进、主要产区供应恢复情况以及国内节后需求复苏节奏。 美国在委内瑞拉等地的地缘动作推升了全球资源供应的 ...

（注：本文为原创分析，核心观点基于公开信息及市场推导，以上观点仅供参考，不做为入市依据 ）长江有色金属网 宏观面：本周铅价强势拉涨背后，是四重宏观动力形成的共振效应：首先，美联储降息预期不断强化，降低了持有有色金属等非 生息资产的"机会成本"，吸引全球资金涌入金属市场；其次，人民币显著升值，直接压低了原材料进口成本，同时增强了国内投 资者对人民币计价资产的配置偏好；再次，国内 "政策暖风"频吹，央行明确传递宽松信号，商务部力推消费促进，共同提振了 市场对经济与工业需求的复苏信心；最后，美国初请失业金数据边际改善，缓解了市场对全球经济衰退的深度担忧，风险偏好回 升。这四大因素共同构筑了当前铅价上行的宏观逻辑基础，推动其走势与宏观情绪高度同步。 供需端现状 当前铅市正处 "弱平衡"博弈的核心：在供应刚性与需求弹性的刀尖上，价格于狭窄区间内持续徘徊。供应端，原生铅仍受铅精 矿结构性紧缺制约，而再生铅则面临冬季回收难与政策调整的双重扰动，整体供应弹性不足，社会库存低位为价格构筑了明确支 撑。需求侧则呈现 "传统持稳、新兴承压"的分化局面：电动自行车、汽车起动电池等传统领域凭借冬季备货季展现韧性，但新 能源汽车渗透对铅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [4][34] Summary by Related Sections 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures showed a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend, ranging from around 17,010 yuan/ton to about 17,380 yuan/ton [8] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - In November, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the business climate. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, the production index was at the critical point, and the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were all below the critical point [12] 3. Spot Analysis - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 17,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,255 yuan/ton, 17,300 yuan/ton, and 17,270 yuan/ton respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the premium or discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 200 yuan/metal ton, 400 yuan/metal ton, and 320 yuan/metal ton respectively. The average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 260 yuan/metal ton. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 645,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Seasonally, the current output was at an average level compared to the past five years [22] 5. Inventory Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 34,735 tons, a decrease of 3,064 tons from the previous week. As of December 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 243,550 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 48.06% [28] 6. Fundamental Analysis - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the new orders index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing market demand. Lead processing fees continued to decline slowly and remained at a low level. In October, lead production was at a moderate level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline and was at a moderate level in recent years, while LME lead inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years [33] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][37] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures showed a fluctuating market, ranging from around 15,885 yuan/ton to about 17,220 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries in October, 29 had year - on - year growth in added value, with different growth rates for each industry [11] 3. Spot Analysis - As of November 28, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,015 yuan/ton, 17,120 yuan/ton, and 17,020 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] 4. Supply - Demand Situation - In September 2025, the global lead mine output was 392.8 thousand tons, an increase of 9.3 thousand tons from the previous month, and was at the average level compared with the past 5 years. As of November 21, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 200 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 280 yuan/metal ton respectively, and the average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 260 yuan/metal ton. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 64.5 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%, and was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [21] 5. Inventory Situation - As of November 28, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 37,799 tons, a decrease of 1,122 tons from the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 263,175 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 52.55% [30] 6. Fundamental Analysis - In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Global lead mine output has increased, while lead processing fees are still slowly declining. Lead production in October remained at a moderate level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline, and the inventory level was at a moderate level in recent years. LME lead inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory level remained at a high level in recent years [4][36] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][37]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2509 of Shanghai lead futures showed a weak oscillating trend, ranging from around 16,615 yuan/ton to about 17,085 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts was around 1,961 - 2,037 US dollars/ton, showing an oscillating and weakening trend [13] 2. Spot Analysis - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,460 yuan/ton, 16,565 yuan/ton, and 16,480 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 400 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 660,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [22] 4. Inventory Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, an increase of 29 tons from the previous week. As of August 1, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 275,325 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 26.73% [28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive "standstill" in 2025. Global lead supply and demand are basically balanced, with both lead consumption and lead supply decreasing. Global lead mine production continues to grow. Lead processing fees have changed little and remain at a low level. Lead production has maintained year - on - year growth and ended the month - on - month decline. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][34] 6. Future Outlook - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to move in a volatile trend [1][4][34] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2508 of Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, ranging from around 17,090 yuan/ton to about 17,315 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the price of the LME lead futures contract was running around 2,034 - 2,073 US dollars/ton, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend [11] 2. Spot Analysis - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 17,260 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,075 yuan/ton, 17,080 yuan/ton, and 17,085 yuan/ton respectively [14] - As of July 4, 2025, the premium/discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of June 27, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 900 yuan/metal ton, 800 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively [20] - As of May 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 649,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at an average level compared with the past five years [20] 4. Inventory Situation - As of July 4, 2025, the refined lead inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,303 tons, an increase of 1,374 tons from the previous week [26] - As of July 4, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.34% [26] 5. Fundamental Analysis - The US non - farm payrolls report for June was unexpectedly much stronger than expected. The Fed may adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and the Fed's interest rate cut process may be postponed [3][33] - The lead discount has slightly widened, and the lead processing fee is still in the bottom area [3][33] - Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [3][33] - The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][33]