Core Viewpoint - China's service trade is experiencing significant growth, with a total service trade volume projected to reach 7.10 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.38% [1][10]. Industry Overview - Service trade involves the cross-border flow of services as trade goods, categorized by delivery method and production factor intensity [2][4]. - The industry has evolved through four main stages: initial exploration (1978-1992), rapid growth (1992-2001), accelerated development (2001-2012), and high-quality development (2012-present) [4][5][6]. Industry Development History - From 1978 to 1992, service trade began to develop but lagged behind manufacturing, with total service trade imports and exports increasing from 4.4 billion USD to 10.8 billion USD [4]. - The period from 1992 to 2001 saw a significant increase in service trade, with the share of global service trade rising from 1% to 2.3% [5]. - Following China's accession to the WTO in 2001, service trade grew rapidly, with total imports and exports increasing from 71.9 billion USD in 2001 to 713 billion USD in 2015 [5]. - Since 2012, the focus has shifted to high-quality development, with policies promoting service trade transformation and an increase in knowledge-intensive service trade [6]. Industry Chain - The service trade industry chain includes upstream components like infrastructure and technology support, midstream service trade activities, and downstream demand from consumers, businesses, and government [8]. Current Industry Status - In 2024, the service trade deficit is projected to be -1.63 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.78% year-on-year, primarily due to increased outbound travel demand driven by rising household incomes [10]. - Key segments driving growth include travel services, which are expected to reach 2.07 trillion yuan, a 33.67% increase, and transportation services, projected at 2.00 trillion yuan, a 15.18% increase [12][13]. Key Companies' Performance - Major companies in the service trade sector include COSCO Shipping Holdings, which reported a revenue of 233.9 billion yuan in 2024, a 33.35% increase, and a gross profit of 67.7 billion yuan, a 145.35% increase [17]. - Boyuan Technology, a global IT service provider, reported a revenue of 5.098 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a 4.64% increase, but a net profit decline of 20.39% [19]. Industry Development Trends - Digital transformation is a key trend, with advancements in AI, blockchain, and cloud computing expected to enhance service delivery and efficiency [21]. - The demand for knowledge-intensive services is anticipated to rise, particularly in finance and IT, driving the industry towards higher value chains [22]. - Green service trade is emerging as a significant trend, with increasing focus on sustainability and environmental protection [23].

核心观点 过去一年多，我国服务贸易政策的调整，可以分为三个方向：一是增加国内优质服务供给，扩大电 信、医疗、教育、文化等领域制度型开放。二是促进入境消费，缩小旅游逆差，以"免签扩围延时、退 税免税升级"为主要手段。三是出于技术保护和关税反制角度，限制部分优势技术出口，以及美国电影 进口。 报告摘要 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 前言 在货物贸易不确定性增多的背景下，服务贸易将更加凸显其重要性。因此，本期周报关注我国服务贸 易逆差现状，以及过去一年服务贸易政策的调整情况。 1 、增加优质供给：首次发布负面清单，推动制度型开放 2024 年 3 月，我国首次发布全国版《跨境服务贸易特别管理措施（负面清单）》，这是我国首次对 跨境服务贸易实施负面清单管理，意义重大。 但对比高标准 CPTPP 等高标准经贸规则，负面清单中，金融、交运、文化、通信等行业，市场准入 仍有开放空间，可能也是后续要推进的重点领域 。如今年政府工作报告提出，"推进服务业扩大开放 综合试点示范，推动互联网、 ...

Core Insights - The Boao Forum for Asia 2025 Annual Conference highlighted the resilience of Asian economies, particularly China and ASEAN, in the face of challenges, projecting a GDP growth rate of 4.5% for 2025 [1][3]. Economic Growth Projections - The report anticipates a slight increase in the weighted actual GDP growth rate for Asia from 4.4% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 [3]. - Asia's share of global output is expected to rise from 48.1% to 48.6% by 2025, indicating a strengthening economic position [3]. Employment and Income Trends - Although the employment growth rate in Asia is projected to decline from 1.94% to 1.22% in 2025, the overall unemployment rate is expected to be 4.39%, lower than the global rate of 4.96% [3]. - The report suggests that real income levels in Asia are likely to improve as economic growth rebounds and inflation continues to decrease [3]. Trade and Digital Economy - Asia remains a core player in global value chains, with a significant share of 41.17% in global intermediate goods trade in 2023, surpassing the EU and North America [3]. - The e-commerce sector in the Asia-Pacific region is experiencing rapid growth, with a retail e-commerce growth rate of 8.4% in 2024 and a 10.8% year-on-year increase in China's cross-border e-commerce [4]. Challenges and Market Dynamics - The report identifies potential challenges for Asian economies, including low global economic growth, escalating trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - Despite these challenges, the stock market indices in Asia are expected to remain on an upward trend, with stable exchange rates anticipated for major economies [5]. Future Directions and Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for Asian countries to leverage their demographic advantages and enhance human capital development to improve labor productivity [7]. - It advocates for increased investment in digital technology and international cooperation to foster sustainable development and economic integration [6][7].

Core Insights - The report predicts that Asia's weighted real GDP growth rate will reach 4.5% by 2025, despite overall trade and investment pressures [1][3] - Asia is expected to remain a major engine of global economic growth, with its GDP share of the world projected to increase from 48.1% in 2024 to 48.6% in 2025 [3] - Digital trade and service trade are highlighted as significant growth areas for Asia, with rapid advancements in digital delivery services and a notable recovery in travel services [3][4] Economic Growth and Trade - The Asia-Pacific region's retail e-commerce growth is projected to reach 8.4% in 2024, with China's cross-border e-commerce import and export total at approximately 369 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8% [3] - Southeast Asia's e-commerce sector is expected to achieve a gross merchandise value (GMV) of 263 billion USD, marking a 15% year-on-year increase [3] - The service export total for 25 Asia-Pacific economies reached 1,807.08 billion USD in 2023, with intra-regional exports growing by 41.78 billion USD, significantly outpacing the -2.28% decline in exports to regions outside [4] Regional Integration and Economic Partnerships - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has begun to show trade creation effects, with steady growth in foreign direct investment and accelerated integration of industrial and value chains among member economies [5] - The transition of China's service trade from deficit to surplus in 2023 underscores the contribution of service trade to regional economic cooperation [5] - There is a call for collaborative efforts to promote the high-level implementation and upgrading of RCEP, aiming to enhance governance systems and advance the Asia-Pacific free trade process [5]