大 类 资 产 配 置 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 02 日 "特朗普服软"交易兴起 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250523-20250530) 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250523–20250530）。本周美国政坛持续震动。5 月 28 日，马斯克宣布 离开特朗普政府，政府效率部的"马斯克"改革暂时告一段落。此外，特朗普 23 日表示 ...

Core Insights - ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) has become a key indicator for measuring corporate sustainability in the current global economic landscape, with global sustainable investment exceeding $35 trillion in 2022 and continuing to grow [1][14][21] - The ESG investment trend has seen explosive growth, with net inflows into global ESG funds exceeding $1.5 trillion from 2020 to 2023, transitioning from a responsible investment concept to a mainstream investment strategy [1][21] Policy Trends - Major economies and international organizations are actively promoting ESG reporting policies, such as the European Union's implementation of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) in 2023, affecting over 50,000 companies [2][25] - The U.S. SEC has strengthened regulations on climate-related disclosures since 2022, requiring companies to report on climate change risk assessments and greenhouse gas emissions [2][26] - China's ESG regulatory policies have been continuously improving since 2021, with increasing disclosure requirements for listed companies, including mandatory disclosures for indices like the Shanghai 180 and STAR 50 [2][27] - International organizations have introduced standards like the GRI 2021 version, effective in 2023, which covers 78% of leading global companies and emphasizes substantive reporting and stakeholder engagement [2][28] ESG Reporting Framework - ESG reporting frameworks include GRI standards, SASB standards, and various stock exchange standards, focusing on environmental data, social performance, and corporate governance disclosures [3][36][37] - Environmental disclosures require reporting on greenhouse gas emissions, resource efficiency, and environmental risk management [3][40][42] - Social performance disclosures cover employee rights, community engagement, and supply chain social responsibility [3][43] - Governance disclosures include board diversity, investor rights protection, and anti-corruption measures [3][45][46] Challenges and Strategies - Companies face challenges in implementing ESG reporting and verification, including internal coordination and resource allocation, as well as uncertainties in ESG metrics and performance measurement [3][4] - Strategies for companies include establishing a robust ESG management system, enhancing the quality of ESG disclosures, and actively engaging in ESG verification collaborations [4][5] - The trend towards stricter compliance and verification of ESG reports is increasing, urging companies to embrace ESG transformations for sustainable development [4][5]

4月24日到25日，国际能源署将召开"能源安全峰会"，这次峰会的举办地在伦敦，举办方是英国政府。据报道，峰会的主题将围绕"气候转型、能源安全和地 缘政治风险"展开，英国政府和国际能源署已经向75个国家发出邀请。 距离峰会开始还有一周的时间，但峰会背后的风波已经开始涌动。根据英国《卫报》4月16日的披露，峰会没有邀请俄罗斯，美国总统特朗普则高调宣布会 派重要人物前去参会。最劲爆的消息是关于中国的态度，《卫报》的原话是：由于日程冲突，中方高级能源官员将不会出席本次峰会。 如果用非外交话术来说就是：中国没空来参加。如果用大白话来理解就是：我们不想去。 国际能源安全峰会是国际能源署（简称IEA，亦称"国际能源机构"）举办的峰会，其宗旨是评估全球能源体系面临的风险，并商讨解决方案。这里就不得不 先说一下"国际能源署"。 国际能源署成立于1974年，总部在法国巴黎。它目前有31个成员国，主要包括欧洲大多数国家，还有日本、韩国、美国、加拿大等国。这里面并没有欧洲长 期依赖的能源大国俄罗斯，也没有石油出口大国的沙特、阿联酋、伊朗等国，更没有中国。 说白了，国际能源署是以欧美为主导，维护欧美自身利益，受地缘政治和意识形态的影响 ...

Core Viewpoint - Expand Energy (EXE) shares have increased by approximately 11.1% since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500, but recent estimates have trended downward, indicating potential challenges ahead [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - The last earnings report for Expand Energy was about a month ago, and the stock has shown positive performance since then [1]. - The consensus estimate for the company has decreased by 9.3% over the past month, reflecting a negative shift in expectations [2]. Group 2: VGM Scores - Expand Energy currently holds a strong Growth Score of A, but has a lower Momentum Score of D, indicating mixed performance across different investment strategies [3]. - The stock has a value grade of C, placing it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy, leading to an overall aggregate VGM Score of B [3]. Group 3: Outlook - The overall trend for estimates has been downward, suggesting a potential decline in performance expectations for Expand Energy [4]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of an in-line return in the coming months [4].

Core Viewpoint - Guangju Energy experienced a significant drop in stock price, reaching the daily limit down, with a trading volume of 6.38 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 8.26% [2] Trading Activity - The stock was listed on the Dragon and Tiger list due to a daily price deviation of -11.40%, with institutional net buying of 22.93 million yuan and a net selling of 44.17 million yuan from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [2] - The top five trading departments accounted for a total transaction of 229 million yuan, with buying transactions amounting to 65.54 million yuan and selling transactions totaling 163 million yuan, resulting in a net selling of 97.72 million yuan [2] - Among the trading departments, two institutional special seats were present, with a total buying amount of 30.73 million yuan and selling amount of 7.79 million yuan, leading to a net buying of 22.93 million yuan [2] Fund Flow - The stock saw a net outflow of 216 million yuan in principal funds today, with a significant outflow of 132 million yuan from large orders and 84.22 million yuan from big orders [3] - Over the past five days, the stock has experienced a total net outflow of 271 million yuan [3] - In the trading data from May 29, the top buying and selling departments included institutional special seats and the Shenzhen Stock Connect, with notable transactions recorded [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Court has blocked Trump's tariffs, leading to significant movements in major asset classes, including a rise in the dollar, U.S. stock index futures, and crude oil prices, while gold prices fell sharply [1][9]. Group 1: Court Ruling and Market Reactions - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's imposition of comprehensive tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was an overreach of authority, as the Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to manage trade with other nations [8][9]. - Following the court's decision, gold prices dropped below $3250 per ounce, while Brent crude oil prices rose above $65 per barrel [1][9]. - The dollar index surpassed 100, with the Japanese yen and other safe-haven currencies declining [4][5]. Group 2: Implications of the Ruling - The court's ruling imposes a permanent injunction against Trump's tariffs until agreements are reached with most other trading partners, effectively suspending most of Trump's tariffs [9][10]. - The lawsuit was initiated by the Liberty Justice Center on behalf of five small U.S. businesses importing goods from targeted countries, claiming that the tariffs would harm their business capabilities [9][11]. - The ruling can be appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit and potentially to the U.S. Supreme Court [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Context and Historical Trends - The opposition to Trump's tariff policies has gained momentum, forming a legal coalition across states and industries [13]. - Trump's tariff announcements have historically caused market volatility, leading to a trading strategy known as "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), where initial tariff announcements lead to market declines followed by subsequent rollbacks that boost the market [14][15]. - Trump's recent tariff policies have raised concerns about potential insider trading, as they directly influence market expectations and could benefit his supporters or donors [15].

Group 1 - South Korea will send officials from the Ministry of Energy to participate in the Alaska Energy Conference [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangju Energy experienced a significant drop in stock price, reaching the daily limit down, with a trading volume of 1.042 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 11.48% [2] Trading Activity - The stock was listed on the Dragon and Tiger list due to a daily price deviation of -9.72%, with institutional net purchases amounting to 6.8966 million yuan and net purchases from the Shenzhen Stock Connect totaling 7.8875 million yuan [2] - The top five trading departments accounted for a total transaction volume of 5.61 billion yuan, with buying transactions of 2.25 billion yuan and selling transactions of 3.36 billion yuan, resulting in a net selling of 1.10 billion yuan [2] - Among the trading departments, two institutional special seats were involved, with a combined purchase amount of 42.3819 million yuan and a selling amount of 35.4854 million yuan, leading to a net purchase of 6.8966 million yuan [2] Fund Flow - The stock saw a net outflow of 94.1878 million yuan in principal funds today, with a significant outflow of 49.2013 million yuan from large orders and 44.9865 million yuan from big orders [3] - Over the past five days, the net outflow of principal funds amounted to 38.5914 million yuan [3] Historical Performance - In the past six months, the stock has appeared on the Dragon and Tiger list seven times, with an average price drop of 0.22% the day after being listed and an average increase of 13.87% over the following five days [3]

Group 1 - The UK and EU reached a new defense and security agreement, marking a significant step in rebuilding relations post-Brexit [1] - The agreement extends EU fishing rights in UK waters for 12 years until 2038, reflecting a major concession from the UK under French lobbying [1] - The defense aspect of the agreement opens the door for UK participation in EU joint procurement programs, which is appealing to the UK's lucrative defense industry [1] Group 2 - The agreement establishes cooperation in areas such as hybrid warfare, cybersecurity, infrastructure resilience, and maritime security [1] - The UK is set to explore rejoining the EU's single electricity market and aligning with EU regulations, which may provoke backlash from Brexit skeptics in London [2] - The agreement aims to streamline trade by reducing bureaucratic procedures for the movement of goods, particularly in the context of sanitary and phytosanitary rules [2] Group 3 - The agreement includes a dispute resolution mechanism that grants the EU Court final authority on all EU legal matters, potentially causing discontent among hardline Brexit supporters and within the Labour Party [3]

证券代码：688429 证券简称：时创能源 公告编号：2025-029 常州时创能源股份有限公司 关于调整 2023 年限制性股票激励计划 授予价格的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 集投票权。公司于 2023 年 10 月 9 日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn） 披露的《常州时创能源股份有限公司关于独立董事公开征集投票权的公告》 （公告编号：2023-020）。 授予的激励对象名单在公司内部进行了公示。截至公示期满，公司监事会未收 到任何员工对拟首次授予激励对象提出的疑义或异议。公司于 2023 年 10 月 限公司监事会关于公司 2023 年限制性股票激励计划首次授予激励对象名单的 核查意见及公示情况说明》（公告编号：2023-022）。 了《关于公司〈2023 年限制性股票激励计划（草案）〉及其摘要的议案》 《关于公司〈2023 年限制性股票激励计划实施考核管理办法〉的议案》及 《关于提请股东大会授权董事会办理公司 2023 年限制性股票激励计划相关事 宜 的 议 案 》 。 公 ...