无风险利率下行。叠加海外预期降低、固收预期降低，股市有望逐步成为资金配置关键方向。经过多轮 调整后，A股估值具备吸引力。政策、利率、改革等多重利好因素正逐步显现。指数下行空间有限，建 议投资者保持耐心，逢低布局优质资产，同时关注政策变化和资金流向。 海外因素扰动。美联储6月利率决议成为全球资本市场的焦点时刻。若释放降息信号，可能促使外资回 流，提振A股流动性；反之则可能抑制风险偏好。此外，特朗普政府对华关税政策的90天缓冲期即将结 束，若谈判进展不顺，外贸依赖型行业可能承压。 进入六月，A股市场延续着结构性分化格局，在政策托底与经济数据边际改善的双重作用下，市场可能 迎来新一轮结构性机会。但同时，海外环境的不确定性、国内经济复苏的节奏，都给市场增添了诸多变 数。 宏观环境:政策托底, 无风险利率下行。 政策支持力度加大。政治局会议表态"持续稳定与活跃资本市场"，未来有望出台更多改革措施进一步改 善市场生态，提升市场信心。经济温和复苏。稳增长政策逐步见效，下半年企业盈利有望边际改善，将 为市场向好提供基本面支撑。 六月A股市场指数空间或有限，但结构性机会丰富，科技成长、高股息、消费复苏三条主线将轮番演 绎。投资 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments due to new products, low base effects, and the upcoming peak season [4][5][15] - The white liquor sector is recommended with a focus on Moutai and Fenjiu, while the yellow wine sector is under observation for data validation [3][18] - The report identifies four key themes in the consumer goods sector: cost control, new consumption trends, potential performance elasticity in Q2, and thematic expectations [18][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From May 26 to May 30, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% [24] - Notable performances included soft drinks (+9.27%), other alcoholic beverages (+7.13%), and beer (+3.22%) [24] White and Yellow Liquor - The white liquor sector saw a decline of 2.76%, attributed to recent regulations and seasonal factors [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu aims for national expansion and product growth, indicating a strategic opportunity during the industry's adjustment phase [3][18] Beer and Beverage - The beer sector increased by 3.22%, supported by seasonal demand and promotional activities [14] - The report highlights the potential of the soft drink and low-alcohol segments, with significant growth in companies like Li Ziyuan and Dongpeng Beverage [15][22] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is recommended based on four main themes: cost control, new consumption, potential performance elasticity, and thematic expectations [18][22] - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage these themes, such as Ximai Food and H&H [22] Investment Recommendations - Top picks include soft drinks and low-alcohol products like Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22] - For the white liquor sector, leading companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are recommended [5][22] - The report also suggests monitoring companies in the consumer goods sector that align with the identified themes [22]

Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a critical phase of competition, with potential for increased volatility due to current policy signals, complex overseas variables, and subtle technical characteristics [1] - The People's Bank of China has emphasized "timely rate cuts" and has implemented liquidity support measures, but the exact timing of these policies remains uncertain, leading to market speculation and potential short-term selling pressure [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index is testing key support levels around 3347 points, with 3300 points acting as a critical bull-bear line; a breach could trigger automated stop-loss orders [3] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in June may signal delayed rate cuts, which could strengthen the US dollar and pressure capital flows to emerging markets, impacting A-share growth stock valuations [3][4] - Trade policy risks, particularly regarding tariffs from the previous US administration, pose potential threats to China's export sectors, such as solar and electronics, which could see increased costs and reduced market share [3][4] Group 3 - The return of incremental capital is crucial for market recovery; historical data shows a 67% probability of increased trading volume on the first trading day after the holiday, but a volume below 1.2 trillion yuan may limit the rebound [4] - The technology growth sector is highlighted as a focus area, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries, which are benefiting from strong policy support, although caution is advised regarding overvalued stocks [5][7] Group 4 - Defensive asset allocation is recommended, with high-dividend stocks and resilient consumer sectors being prioritized; state-owned banks and regional power companies are noted for their stable cash flows and attractive dividend yields [6][8] - Essential consumer sectors, such as pork and food processing, are expected to perform well due to anticipated price increases and consumer recovery, providing a safe haven during market downturns [6][8] Group 5 - The market's adjustment is seen as a result of a policy vacuum and overseas disturbances, but the underlying logic of weak domestic economic recovery and industrial upgrades remains intact [9] - Investors are advised to maintain a strategy of "keeping core positions while being flexible with trading" and to wait for policy catalysts from the July Politburo meeting to seize long-term investment opportunities [9]

Summary of the Conference Call on Konjac Industry Industry Overview - The konjac industry encompasses cultivation, initial processing, refined powder processing, and downstream applications, primarily in the food sector, including ready-to-eat snacks, konjac jelly, and vegetarian noodles. The total market size is estimated to be between 17.2 billion to 19.2 billion yuan [1][3] - The domestic konjac planting area has been declining since 2020 due to the pandemic, raw material backlog, and price fluctuations. Drought in 2024 is expected to further reduce production. A slight increase in planting area is anticipated in 2025, but challenges remain in yield recovery [1][5] Key Insights - The main variety cultivated in China is the flower konjac, accounting for over 90% of the total. White konjac is harder to cultivate, while yellow konjac relies on imports [1][6] - The growth cycle of konjac is five years, with farmers adjusting harvest times based on market conditions, which affects subsequent yields. Strict pest control and crop rotation increase cultivation difficulty [1][7] - Since 2021, imports of yellow konjac powder from Indonesia have surged, indicating significant international trade influence on domestic market prices [1][8] Market Potential - The konjac food industry has vast development potential, with expectations of becoming a trillion-yuan market. The ratio of fresh konjac to dried slices to refined powder is 13:2:1, indicating significant processing potential [2] - The ready-to-eat snack segment is projected to generate over 3 billion yuan in sales in 2024, with a terminal sales value of approximately 6 billion yuan, driven by high absorption and expansion properties of konjac powder [2][3] - The overall market for konjac snacks is estimated at 8-10 billion yuan, with a strong growth trajectory anticipated [2] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies in the konjac sector include Weilong, which is expected to maintain rapid growth with a sales forecast exceeding 3 billion yuan in 2024, and Yanjinpuzi, which has achieved over 1 billion yuan in sales through innovative products [2][16][17] - The ready-to-eat snack market is highly profitable, with a market size of approximately 8 billion yuan and a high gross margin due to low production costs [3][12] Challenges and Opportunities - The konjac industry faces technical barriers, particularly in breeding and pest control, which need to be addressed to enhance production [9] - The potential for per capita consumption in China to exceed that of Japan is significant, as Chinese applications of konjac are more diverse compared to Japan's traditional uses [10] - The konjac snack segment is favored due to its health benefits, low calorie content, and flavor versatility, appealing to a broader consumer base compared to traditional snacks like spicy strips [11][13] Future Outlook - The konjac jelly segment has revitalized the jelly market, with rapid growth expected in the coming years [15] - Companies like Yizhi Konjac are exploring downstream processing to expand their market presence, with a focus on food and beauty products showing strong growth [18] - The overall konjac industry is projected to continue its rapid growth, potentially becoming a significant emerging industry in the coming years [3][4]

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观 】 全球变局：锚定"确定性"——国泰海通2025年中期宏观展望 全球进入货币体系重构时代： 全球经济体系重构的根源在于信任基础的变化，基于国际关系变化的信任 下降，会导致整个全球货币体系继续分化，重塑资产价格。"去美元化"确实在缓慢进行，主要是非经济因 素主导，尤其是国际关系变化、各国信任度的下降。在这个背景下，黄金的长期牛市需要站在更长历史维 度看待。 各国之间信任度变化的趋势很难改变，这也决定了本轮黄金的牛市是长期的、历史性的变化。 长期来看，只有美国经济纠偏能力还在，美元也不会崩溃。 但 中短期，需要关注美元信用可能进一步下 降。 美债利率实际利率、通胀预期、名义利率存在上行风险， 美元存在继续贬值风险，黄金上涨会加 速，日元、欧元、英镑等国际货币不排除进一步升值。 国内宏观：求诸于内，自胜者强。 中长期来看，我国经济具有较大潜力，不过，短期经济的需求仍然需 要提振。 2025 年要完成 5% 左右的增长目标，仍需积极政策继续发力。 风险提示 ： 稳增长政策落地进度不及预期，国际贸易环境超预期恶化 。 我们认为下半年宏观政策继续边际加码，尤其 ...

投资建议：结构分化，重视成长。 大众品首选新消费、高成长，白酒周期寻底，配置价值凸显。 白酒：分化加剧，更加理性。 25Q2 产业景气度仍在寻底，头部公司淡季韧性凸显。 与 2012-14 年的 行业调整期相比，本轮周期需求和预期的调整烈度相对较小、但调整周期明显拉长。上一轮白酒行业调整 呈 V 型，行业出清速度快；本轮调整更像 U 型，调整幅度相对较小，目前仍在筑底阶段。 我们认为 短 期股价走势已基本反应市场悲观预期，伴随政策预期回暖白酒板块有望迎来一轮估值修复。 啤酒 & 饮料：啤酒有望修复，饮料结构繁荣。 啤酒旺季将至、经营环比改善； 饮料仍处于单品势能释放 阶段。 | 本文摘自：2025年6月1日发布的 换季消费及成长——食品饮料2025年中期策略 | | --- | | 訾 猛 ，资格证书编号： S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040022 | | 徐 洋 ，资格证书编 号： S0880520120008 | | 姚世佳 ，资格证书编号： S0880520070001 | | 李 耀 ，资格证书编号： S0880520090 001 | | 程碧升 ...

若无法穿越时代周期和产品周期，旺旺或将退出历史舞台。 作者 | 金诺 编辑 | 鹤翔 出品 | 零售商业财经ID：Retail-Finiance 6月27日，中国旺旺控股有限公司（00151.HK,简称"旺旺"）披露了截至2023年3月31日的2022年全年财报业绩。 财报数据显示，旺旺在2022财年实现营收229.28亿元，较去年同期营收下滑4.41%。 | 財務摘要 | | | 單位：百萬人民幣 ( 除另有説明 ) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FY21 | FY22 | YOY | | | 收益 | 23,985 | 22,928 | 4.4% V | 主因乳品及飲料類衰退 米果類、休閒類實現↑中至高個位數 海外收益↑雙位數 | | 毛利率 | 44.8% | 43.9% | 90bps V | 部分原材料及包材價格 ↑ | | 營運利潤 | 5,457 | 4,847 | 11.2% | | | | 22.8% | 21.1% | 170bps | | | 本公司權益持 | 4.203 | 3,372 | + 19.8% | √ 所得税税率29.6% ...

Core Viewpoint - Wei Long, known as the "King of Spicy Strips," is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, with plans to raise less than $150 million, a significant decrease from the initial target of $1 billion [2][3]. Group 1: IPO Timeline and Fundraising - Wei Long has delayed its IPO multiple times, initially aiming to raise $1 billion in 2021, but the target has now dropped by 85% to $150 million [3][4]. - The company first submitted its IPO application in May 2021 but did not receive approval until November 2021, after which it postponed the listing due to unfavorable market conditions [4][5]. - The latest update on November 23, 2023, indicates a further reduction in fundraising goals, with a projected market valuation of around $1.4 billion, down from previous estimates [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Valuation - Wei Long's revenue growth has slowed, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% from 2019 to 2021, while net profit growth has stagnated [6][7]. - The company's valuation has plummeted from 600 billion RMB to approximately 100 billion RMB, raising questions about whether it was previously overvalued [6][7]. - Comparatively, other companies in the snack food sector, such as Tao Li Bread and Three Squirrels, have lower price-to-earnings ratios, suggesting that Wei Long's current valuation may still be high [10][11]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Product Strategy - Wei Long's revenue declined by 1.8% in the first half of 2022, attributed to pandemic impacts and a drop in sales of its main products [11][12]. - The company has raised prices to counteract rising raw material costs, which has improved profit margins but negatively affected sales volume [11][12]. - Wei Long faces the challenge of shedding its "junk food" image, as consumer preferences shift towards healthier options, necessitating product innovation and reformulation [14][15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Wangwang, a well-known national brand, is struggling to keep up with the evolving market and consumer preferences, facing challenges from emerging food brands and a decline in its traditional product appeal [1][9]. Group 1: Marketing Issues - Wangwang has been penalized for false advertising, with a recent fine of 15,300 yuan for misleading claims about its high-calcium milk product [3][5]. - The company has a history of marketing failures, including past violations of advertising laws and misleading claims about product ingredients [6][7]. - Marketing strategies have not resonated with modern consumers, leading to ineffective campaigns that fail to attract new customer interest [10][12]. Group 2: Product and Innovation Challenges - Wangwang's flagship products, such as Wangzai milk, have not seen innovation in years, resulting in declining sales as consumer preferences shift towards healthier options [9][14]. - Despite attempts to launch new brands and products targeting different demographics, the reception has been lukewarm, indicating a lack of genuine innovation [10][12]. - The company has struggled to adapt to the online sales environment, missing out on significant e-commerce opportunities [11][12]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Recent financial results show a decline in revenue and profit, with a 4.83% drop in revenue to 10.833 billion yuan and a 23.6% decrease in net profit to 1.596 billion yuan for the first half of the 2022 fiscal year [13][14]. - The gross profit margin has been on a downward trend, falling from 48.05% in 2019 to 42.82% in the first half of 2022 [14]. - Analysts have expressed concerns about Wangwang's future performance, with several institutions lowering their target prices and profit forecasts due to challenging sales prospects [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in Q1 2025, attributed to reduced e-commerce activities and traditional retail performance, but showed a year-on-year increase when comparing Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [4] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, which has shown significant growth from a low base, indicating increasing influence and recognition [9] - Profit margins are expected to improve gradually in subsequent quarters as operational efficiencies are realized and overseas market contributions grow [9] Financial Performance Summary - In FY 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14.32% [2] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 504 million yuan, down 13.99% year-on-year, with a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.21% [2] - The company's gross margin for FY 2024 was 35.46%, which decreased to 34.32% in Q1 2025 due to rising raw material costs and increased expenses [5][7] - The company’s sales expenses increased significantly in Q1 2025, reflecting investments in overseas market expansion and brand promotion [6] Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue from various product lines in FY 2024 included 705 million yuan from mixed nuts and beans, 524 million yuan from green peas, and 302 million yuan from sunflower seeds, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 39.80%, 12.56%, and 10.48% [3] - Revenue from overseas markets grew by 1762% year-on-year, highlighting the potential for future growth in international sales [3] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 2.598 billion yuan, with EPS estimates revised to 4.38 yuan [10] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.032 billion yuan in 2026 and 3.461 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 5.13 yuan and 5.72 yuan [10]