2025年上半年收官，公募积极研判下半年市场。 近日， 华宝、平安、汇丰晋信、国联安、银河 等多家基金公司相继召开中期策略会， 中 欧、永赢、 国海富兰克林、财通 等基金公司也纷纷发布下半年投资策略观点，对2025年下 半年A股市场行情与投资机会进行分析展望。 板块方面，在中期策略会上， 国联安基金常务副总经理、首席投资官魏东 表示，下半年政策 或发力，市场下跌风险较小。投资策略上，要聚焦中国发展的必经之路与新兴赛道，布局安 全与战略产业、政策支持方向，关注新消费、技术前沿等新兴趋势。当前市场虽有挑战，但 政策和制造业崛起为投资提供方向，投资者需把握宏观逻辑，挖掘结构性机会。 华宝基金权益投资副总监夏林锋 表示，A股市场面临着政策转向与业绩企稳的机遇，需求端 稳住楼市、股市与供给端整治"内卷"式竞争的政策导向日益明确。AI引领新的创新周期、"新 消费"成为内循环新载体、"新能源"走出"内卷"，成为2025年展望中需要重视的变化。对 此，投资者可考虑采取"深挖Alpha、等待Beta"的投资策略应对。 "仍积极看好全球云计算和AI产业的发展，现阶段将继续重点关注云计算板块的机会，包括海 外AI算力，例如 CPO ...

Market Overview - Chinese markets showed mixed trends with military and tech sectors declining, while some industries rose due to "anti-involution" measures[3] - European markets closed higher, influenced by political events in the UK, while US tech stocks rebounded, pushing the S&P 500 to a new high[3] Commodity and Forex - Oil prices rose by 3% following the US-Vietnam trade agreement, with New York crude oil reaching $67.45 per barrel[28] - Copper prices surpassed $10,000, marking a high since March, while gold prices slightly increased to $3,307.7 per ounce[28] Fixed Income - Global bond markets declined due to UK fiscal concerns, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.28%[31] - Asian bond markets remained stable, with spreads narrowing by 1-3 basis points[31] A-Share Market - A-shares experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% to 3,454 points and the Shenzhen Component down 0.61%[15] - The military sector continued to retreat, while steel and photovoltaic stocks surged due to production limits[15] Key Corporate Developments - Vipshop (VIPS US) projected a revenue decline of 4% year-on-year for Q2 2025, with a focus on its outlet business[9] - Tesla's global quarterly sales fell by 13% year-on-year, while Xiaomi's car exports are not expected until 2027[6] Regional Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62%, driven by strong performances in the gaming and materials sectors, while tech stocks faced declines[11] - The S&P Mexico IPC Index increased by 0.92%, with all sectors showing gains, particularly industrials[9]

金十数据7月3日讯，A股三大指数早盘集体上涨，截至午间收盘，上证综指涨0.07%，深证成指涨 0.75%，创业板指涨1.36%。全市场半日成交额8063亿元，较上日缩量611亿元。全市场超2500只个股上 涨。板块个股方面，创新药概念股延续昨日涨势，神州细胞、塞力医疗、未名医药涨停。消费电子板块 活跃，新亚电子、朝阳科技涨停。军工股震荡走低，中船应急跌超10%；游戏股表现低迷，星辉娱乐跌 超6%，迅游科技、富春股份跌超3%。 A股午评：三大股指早盘集体收涨 创新药概念股延续强势 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 风险因子：1）微盘股踩踏，2）美元流动性恶化；3）期权市场流动 性不及预期；4）关税超预期；5）供给超预期；6）货币宽松超预期。 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-03 股市热点切换，债市情绪继续回暖 股指期货：反内卷式竞争开始发酵，提振政策预期 股指期权：备兑防御为主 国债期货：债市情绪继续回暖 股指期货方面，反内卷式竞争开始发酵，提振政策预期。求是杂志发 表文章，"反内卷式竞争"开始发酵，重点关注水泥、多晶硅、煤炭等 行业，配合京津冀钢铁限产，提升类似2016年供给侧改革的预期。政策 预期催化下，商品期货先行，多晶硅涨停、焦煤远月大涨，联动股市钢 铁、煤炭、建材板块领涨，对应资金从电子、通信、军工等小盘成长板 块流出。目前尚处于第一阶段，交易政策预期，而供需宽松格局尚未扭 转，且限产压降产量不代表压降产能，供给难实现实质性出清，仍等待 第二阶段的实质性落地措施。鉴于政策偏暖预期，对商品类似金融9·24 时刻，价格的"政策底"或已出现，有望推动产业链利润触底，利好通 胀链。另外，近期小盘股超额收益推动下，IM再现极端深贴水，配合交 易"反内卷" ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to continue a volatile upward trend in July, supported by policy initiatives and the upcoming mid-year performance disclosures [2][9] - The market is characterized by a strong performance in black metals and banking stocks, while sectors like semiconductors and military stocks are experiencing pullbacks, indicating sensitivity to short-term gains and fund flows [2][9] Market Overview - On Wednesday, the A-share market showed a mixed performance with the three major indices fluctuating, while the black metal and banking sectors provided support [4][9] - The overall market sentiment was moderate, with a total trading volume of 13,770 billion, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,454.79 points, down 0.09% [5] Sector Analysis - The steel industry saw significant gains, driven by positive macro signals from the June PMI data and upcoming industry meetings aimed at addressing challenges and setting goals for the second half of the year [6][9] - The photovoltaic equipment and other renewable energy sectors are active, with expectations for technical rebounds and sustained demand driven by global carbon neutrality goals [7][9] - The marine engineering equipment sector experienced a surge, supported by government policies aimed at promoting high-quality development in the marine economy [8][9] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. Stocks with expected strong mid-year performance, focusing on those with improving fundamentals [3][10] 2. Technology sectors including military, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution against speculative investments [3][10] 3. Stocks in the renewable energy and brokerage sectors that are poised for rebounds after recent declines [3][10]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,221, up 0.62% for the day and 20.75% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.54% to 8,725, with a year-to-date increase of 19.68%[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.64% to 5,269, with a year-to-date gain of 17.93%[3] Capital Flows - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 5.036 billion on July 2[9] Sector Performance - Gold stocks performed well, with Shandong Gold rising over 5%[9] - Gaming stocks saw significant gains, with New Macau International Development increasing over 13%[9] - Semiconductor stocks declined, with Shanghai Fudan dropping over 4%[9] U.S. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.02% to 44,484, while the S&P 500 rose 0.47% to 6,227, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.94% to 20,393[3] - The S&P 500's performance was bolstered by gains in technology stocks, with Nvidia rising 2.58%[9] Economic Indicators - U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly declined in June, marking the first drop in over two years[13] - The U.S. Senate passed a tax reform bill that does not include provisions for wind and solar energy projects[9] Japanese Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.6%, with a cumulative decline of over 3% for the week[13] - The index has increased nearly 11% since April 2, despite recent declines[13] Notable Company Movements - Tesla's global quarterly sales fell 13% year-on-year but exceeded the most pessimistic analyst expectations[14] - Oracle and OpenAI reached an agreement for a significant power supply project, part of a $30 billion cloud deal[14] Investment Insights - The report indicates a mixed outlook for various sectors, with technology and gold stocks showing resilience while semiconductor stocks face challenges[9][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance and growth potential of the military industry, particularly through the military ETF, which closely tracks the China Securities Military Industry Index [1][2][3] - As of July 3, 2025, the China Securities Military Industry Index (399967) increased by 0.82%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Shanghai Hanyun (300762) up 7.51% and China Satellite Communications (601698) up 6.25% [1] - The military ETF leader (512680) has seen significant trading activity, with a total transaction volume of 231.61 million yuan on July 2, and an average daily transaction of 149 million yuan over the past week [1] Group 2 - The military ETF leader has experienced a substantial increase in scale, growing by 380 million yuan over the past two weeks, ranking among the top two in comparable funds [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Military Industry Index account for 35.55% of the index, with major companies including China Shipbuilding (600150) and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760) [2] - The military industry is expected to see a turning point in orders by 2025, driven by new technologies aimed at enhancing equipment performance and reducing costs, as well as new market directions from military trade and technology conversion [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the recent adjustments in index sample stocks by major exchanges, which aim to enhance the representation and investment value of indices, particularly in the context of increasing long-term capital inflows into the market [1][2] - The adjustments have led to a significant increase in the scale of ETFs linked to major indices, with an estimated total scale of approximately 1.7 trillion yuan by April 2025, representing a nearly fourfold increase since the end of 2021 [1] - The adjustments are expected to optimize index representation, trigger structural capital flows, and potentially have a positive impact on the stock prices of newly included stocks, especially those in mainstream indices [1][3] Group 2 - The recent index adjustments have increased the weight of technology stocks, reflecting a trend towards high-tech and advanced manufacturing in listed companies [2] - The adjustments in the CSI 300 index included an increase of 2 technology stocks, raising its weight by 0.18%, while the CSI 500 index saw an increase of 12 technology stocks, raising its weight by 1.82% [2] - The adjustments are likely to enhance the investment value of the North Exchange's indices, aligning with its focus on specialized and innovative companies [2][3] Group 3 - The selection criteria for index adjustments typically emphasize market capitalization and liquidity, with newly included stocks often experiencing increased buying pressure post-adjustment [3] - The recent adjustment of the CSI 300 index involved the removal of stocks from sectors like power equipment and construction materials, while adding stocks from banking, artificial intelligence, and military sectors, consistent with the current market style [3] - Historical data indicates that index adjustments lead to positive price impacts for included stocks, particularly in larger indices where passive trading can significantly influence stock prices [3][4] Group 4 - The adjustments by international index providers like MSCI are also noteworthy, with recent changes including the addition of five A-shares to the MSCI China Index, which saw immediate price increases for the newly included stocks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the A-share market in the second half of 2025 is optimistic, driven by domestic growth-stabilizing policies and a gradual economic recovery [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Multiple fund companies, including Huabao and Ping An, are optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of 2025, citing supportive policies and economic recovery [1][2]. - The market is expected to show a trend of oscillating upward, with liquidity improving due to the gradual implementation of monetary easing policies [2][3]. - The overall sentiment is that the market will maintain resilience, with structural opportunities emerging in various sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Key sectors to watch include technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption trends, which are seen as essential for China's development [4][6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is compared to the semiconductor industry a few years ago, indicating significant market potential and policy support [6]. - The AI and cloud computing sectors are highlighted as areas of continued focus, with expectations of demand growth and technological advancements [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Investment Approaches - Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategy of "deep digging for Alpha while waiting for Beta," focusing on structural opportunities within the market [4][6]. - The emphasis is on identifying safe and strategic industries that align with government policies and emerging trends [4][6]. - The investment landscape is shifting towards sectors that support domestic consumption and innovation, with a particular focus on new energy and AI-driven technologies [4][5].

A股军工板块盘初拉升，陕西华达涨超10%，雷科防务涨停，中国卫通、晨曦航空、中国卫星纷纷上 扬。 ...