Core Viewpoint - The ongoing energy struggle between Hungary and the U.S. highlights the complexities of international relations and the survival strategies of smaller nations amid larger geopolitical conflicts [1][3]. Energy Dependency - Hungary's reliance on Russian energy is deeply rooted in its historical and geographical context, with most of its oil and gas imports coming from Russia [3][5]. - The Russian oil and gas have become integral to Hungary's economy, serving as a "lifeline" for the country's operations [5][6]. EU Sanctions and Hungary's Position - Hungary has strongly opposed the EU's legislative proposal to gradually stop importing Russian energy by the end of 2027, emphasizing its unique energy security needs as an inland country [6][7]. - Hungary has effectively utilized its veto power within the EU to negotiate favorable terms during sanctions discussions, successfully securing exemptions in previous rounds of sanctions [9][11]. Geopolitical Dynamics - Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has asserted Hungary's independent stance on broader geopolitical issues, including rejecting Ukraine's EU membership while criticizing the EU's financial support for Ukraine [15][17]. - The U.S. aims to reduce Europe's dependency on Russian energy, positioning itself as a primary energy supplier to the EU, which has implications for Hungary's energy strategy [17][27]. Energy Diversification Efforts - Despite external pressures, Hungary is actively seeking to diversify its energy sources while maintaining stable supplies from Russia, including agreements with Shell and discussions with Middle Eastern oil producers [19][21]. - The transition to alternative energy sources is a complex process requiring significant investment and time, as highlighted by Hungary's ongoing reliance on Russian energy [21][27]. Strategic Positioning - Hungary's assertive response to U.S. pressure reflects a clear understanding of its national interests and the strategic use of international rules to navigate the geopolitical landscape [22][25]. - The increasing Chinese investment in Hungary, particularly in the battery and automotive sectors, enhances Hungary's resilience against external pressures [22][23]. Conclusion - The interplay of energy dependency, geopolitical maneuvering, and national interests underscores the challenges faced by Hungary and similar nations in the current international landscape, where energy security and political considerations are intricately linked [27][28].

Group 1 - A coalition of over thirty countries, led by the US and Europe, is planning to remove Russian energy from the global market by the end of 2024 [1][2] - The coalition aims to gradually detach Russian oil and gas from the global energy trading system, with the US already implementing decisive sanctions [2][4] - The removal of Russian energy could lead to energy shortages in Europe and significant fluctuations in global energy prices, impacting countries like China [4][11] Group 2 - The UK Prime Minister announced the expedited delivery of over 5,000 light multi-role missiles (LMM) to Ukraine to enhance its air defense capabilities before winter [6][8] - The LMM missiles are specifically designed to counteract Iranian-made suicide drones used by Russia, which pose a significant threat to Ukrainian infrastructure [8][10] - The production of these missiles is also creating jobs in the UK, benefiting local industries [10] Group 3 - The coalition's plan to freeze Russian sovereign assets and use them to fund Ukraine's defense raises legal and ethical concerns, potentially destabilizing international financial order [17][19] - Continuous provision of long-range weapons could exacerbate the conflict, leading to a cycle of violence rather than resolution [19][22] - China emphasizes the need for dialogue and negotiation to resolve conflicts, advocating for a balanced and sustainable security framework in Europe [19][22]

俄罗斯克里姆林宫26日发布消息称，俄罗斯总统普京日前视察了俄军联合部队集群的一处指挥所，并与 俄武装力量总参谋长格拉西莫夫及各集群指挥官举行会议。普京在会议上说，配备核动力装置的"海 燕"巡航导弹已完成"决定性试验"。 对于俄罗斯日前试射"海燕"核动力巡航导弹，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫27日表示，"海燕"的试验不 应影响俄罗斯与美国的互动。 佩斯科夫说，俄罗斯以国家利益为指导并致力于保障安全。新武器系统的研发正是基于这一任务导向， 其中包括已公布的"海燕"系统。他还表示，当前俄美关系处于最低水平，目前仅显现出恢复关系的微弱 努力，俄罗斯对接触持开放态度。 俄罗斯副外长里亚布科夫27日表示，俄罗斯严格遵守与美国关于弹道导弹发射和战略演习的双边协议规 定，没有出现任何偏离文件要求的情况。 据央视新闻，当地时间27日，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫表示，目前俄罗斯总统普京与美国总统特朗普会 晤的时间尚不明确，但会晤的意愿依旧存在。他还透露，暂时还无法预知在新年之前是否将举行会晤。 但需要注意到的是，普京与特朗普在阿拉斯加州安克雷奇会晤的决定是双方快速达成的。 记者获悉，匈牙利总理欧尔班当地时间10月27日表示，尽管俄美总 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5]. Core Views - The oil price is expected to enter a downward channel due to the end of the peak season and increased production from OPEC+, with short-term volatility anticipated due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil [1][10]. - The average Brent crude oil price is projected to be $68 and $62 per barrel for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 prices expected to be around $63, $61, and $60 per barrel [4][65]. - High-dividend energy companies with production and cost reduction capabilities, as well as growth in natural gas business, are recommended for investment opportunities, specifically China Petroleum (A/H) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (A/H) [4][65]. Supply Side Summary - OPEC+ is expected to release actual production increments starting Q4 2025, with global oil supply increasing by 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [3][42]. - The U.S. announced new sanctions on Russian oil, affecting nearly 50% of the country's total oil exports, which may cause short-term disruptions in global oil trade [3][42]. - Despite these sanctions, the long-term impact on oil supply and demand is expected to be limited due to a generally loose supply-demand situation [3][42]. Demand Side Summary - Global oil demand growth for 2025 has been revised down to 700,000 barrels per day from a previous estimate of 740,000 barrels per day, with 2026 demand growth maintained at 700,000 barrels per day [2][17]. - The end of the traditional peak season has led to a decrease in refinery throughput in major regions, with U.S. refinery utilization rates declining due to seasonal maintenance [2][26]. - China's crude oil imports fell by 4.5% month-on-month in September, indicating a slight decrease in demand [2][29]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends the following companies based on their potential for growth and dividend yield: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (883 HK) - Buy with a target price of 27.49 [7][66] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938 CH) - Buy with a target price of 34.75 [7][66] - China Petroleum (601857 CH) - Hold with a target price of 10.44 [7][66] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (857 HK) - Hold with a target price of 8.80 [7][66]

Core Insights - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.05% on October 27, with southbound trading totaling HKD 129.77 billion, resulting in a net inflow of HKD 2.87 billion [1][2]. Trading Activity - Southbound trading saw a total of HKD 663.19 billion in buy transactions and HKD 634.46 billion in sell transactions, leading to a net buy of HKD 28.73 billion [1]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) recorded a total trading volume of HKD 49.89 billion, with net buying of HKD 1.23 billion, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) had a total trading volume of HKD 79.88 billion and net buying of HKD 1.65 billion [1]. Active Stocks - The most actively traded stock was SMIC, with a total trading volume of HKD 10.60 billion and a net buy of HKD 1.14 billion, closing up by 3.50% [1][2]. - Alibaba had a total trading volume of HKD 10.52 billion but faced a net sell of HKD 1.99 billion, closing up by 3.15% [1][2]. - Other notable stocks included Tencent, with a net buy of HKD 1.03 billion, and Hua Hong Semiconductor, with a net buy of HKD 0.99 billion [1][2]. Continuous Net Buying - Three stocks have seen continuous net buying for more than three days: SMIC (5 days), CNOOC (4 days), and Tencent (4 days) [2]. - CNOOC had the highest net buy amount during this period, totaling HKD 3.52 billion, followed by SMIC with HKD 2.94 billion and Tencent with HKD 1.98 billion [2].

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20251027 反弹之路开启——港股&海外周观察 2025 年 10 月 27 日 我们认为港股阶段性反弹开启，中长期仍在震荡上行趋势中。 其一，前期回调因素有所缓和。随着中美双方沟通推进，市场对关税问 题的态度有所调整。此外，市场对十五五规划反馈积极，内外资整体看 好未来经济趋势，但仍关心物价。 从技术层面来看，截至 10 月 24 日，标普 500 市场广度回落至 65%，市 场宽度在缩小。 其二，科技板块仍需观察美国科技股财报情况。美国科技龙头叙事会持 续影响全球科技产业链股票交易节奏。我们对 AI 趋势乐观，继续认为 在降息周期下科技股的相对胜率更高。 中长期来看，美股回归由经济基本面和企业盈利韧性所主导的轨道上， 主要趋势依然向上。一是，在宏观政策"三降"——降利率、降关税、降 其三，我们继续认为明年一季度基本面叙事会更加顺畅。今年剩下时间， 整体科技弹性更高，但同时建议关注部分红利股，按照以往情形 11-12 月红利股相对胜率较高。 ◼ 美股：本周纳指领涨 2.3%，道指上涨 2.2%，标普 500 上涨 1.9%。行业 上，能源、材料领涨；电信业务、 ...

Core Insights - The top three stocks with net inflows from southbound funds are Yingfu Fund (02800) with 1.995 billion, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) with 1.424 billion, and SMIC (00981) with 636 million [1][2] - The top three stocks with net outflows are Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) with -299 million, GigaDevice Semiconductor (02367) with -179 million, and Zhaojin Mining (01818) with -162 million [1][2] - In terms of net inflow ratios, GX Hengsheng Technology (02837) leads with 89.26%, followed by Far East Horizon (03360) at 80.25%, and Tuhu-W (09690) at 67.29% [1][2] - The stocks with the highest net outflow ratios include Huadian International Power (01071) at -74.23%, CIMC Enric (03899) at -63.04%, and Weilu Group (01196) at -57.66% [1][2] Net Inflow Rankings - Yingfu Fund (02800) recorded a net inflow of 1.995 billion, representing a 15.63% increase, with a closing price of 26.420 [2] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) saw a net inflow of 1.424 billion, with a net inflow ratio of 46.50% and a closing price of 19.500 [2] - SMIC (00981) had a net inflow of 636 million, with a net inflow ratio of 10.38% and a closing price of 74.850 [2] Net Outflow Rankings - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) experienced a net outflow of -299 million, with a net outflow ratio of -9.94% and a closing price of 75.950 [2] - GigaDevice Semiconductor (02367) had a net outflow of -179 million, with a net outflow ratio of -31.12% and a closing price of 38.620 [2] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) recorded a net outflow of -162 million, with a net outflow ratio of -19.70% and a closing price of 29.840 [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - GX Hengsheng Technology (02837) achieved a net inflow ratio of 89.26%, with a net inflow of 36.552 million and a closing price of 7.310 [3] - Far East Horizon (03360) had a net inflow ratio of 80.25%, with a net inflow of 27.178 million and a closing price of 7.140 [3] - Tuhu-W (09690) recorded a net inflow ratio of 67.29%, with a net inflow of 19.987 million and a closing price of 18.050 [3] Net Outflow Ratio Rankings - Huadian International Power (01071) had the highest net outflow ratio at -74.23%, with a net outflow of -23.262 million and a closing price of 4.400 [3] - CIMC Enric (03899) recorded a net outflow ratio of -63.04%, with a net outflow of -15.158 million and a closing price of 7.880 [3] - Weilu Group (01196) experienced a net outflow ratio of -57.66%, with a net outflow of -10.037 million and a closing price of 12.090 [3]

前言 在欧盟内部，关于对俄罗斯能源政策的分歧日益凸显，匈牙利总理欧尔班以其坚定的立场，成为了这场 博弈中的焦点人物。 他公然反对欧盟推动成员国放弃俄罗斯能源的做法，称其"荒谬至极"，并表示布达佩斯方面将继续抵制 这一政策。 本周，欧盟能源部长会议经过讨论与磋商，正式对欧盟委员会此前提出的一项涉俄能源政策提议予以支 持。 根据该提议的核心规划，欧盟将以对莫斯科实施制裁为重要背景，推进能源供应结构调整，目标是到 2028年实现完全淘汰俄罗斯石油和天然气的使用，彻底切断与俄罗斯在这两大核心能源领域的依赖关 联。 除了明确2028年的终极淘汰目标外，该提议还包含一项具体的实施细则。 自2026年1月1日起，欧盟各成员国将被禁止与俄罗斯方面签署任何新的天然气运输协议，这一禁令将覆 盖所有未达成共识的新增合作项目。 不过，考虑到部分成员国此前已与俄罗斯签订且仍在履行期内的天然气运输合同，提议中也作出了例外 规定，此类已商定的既有合同可按照原有条款继续执行，不受新禁令的影响。 值得注意的是，这一涉及欧盟能源供应格局调整的政策提议，在欧盟内部并未形成统一共识，反而引发 了不同立场的分歧。 其中，匈牙利的反对态度尤为鲜明且坚决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Poland and Hungary within the EU has escalated into an open confrontation, driven by deep divisions over Russian oil supply, support for Ukraine, and energy security [1][3]. Group 1: Poland's Position - Poland's foreign minister has publicly called for Ukraine to destroy the pipeline supplying Russian oil to Hungary, highlighting Poland's strong stance against Russian energy dependence [3][11]. - Poland's rejection of extraditing a Ukrainian citizen accused of damaging the "Nord Stream" pipeline reflects its national interests and a broader anti-Russian sentiment [5][19]. - Poland views the "Friendship" pipeline as a geopolitical threat, as it allows Russia to maintain stable foreign exchange income, which supports its military actions in Ukraine [15][19]. Group 2: Hungary's Position - Hungary relies heavily on the "Friendship" pipeline for its energy needs, with approximately 80% to 90% of its oil imports coming from this source, making it resistant to cutting ties with Russian oil [13][15]. - The Hungarian government emphasizes its geographical limitations, stating that it cannot easily switch to alternative energy sources without incurring significant costs and logistical challenges [15]. - Hungary's foreign minister criticized Poland's calls for action against its energy supply, framing them as support for terrorism [6][11]. Group 3: EU Dynamics - The ongoing dispute illustrates a significant divide within the EU regarding energy policy and responses to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, with Eastern European countries like Poland advocating for a tougher stance while Western nations prefer to avoid escalating tensions with Hungary [16][19]. - The internal EU conflict extends beyond energy issues, as differing views on defense spending and security highlight the fragmentation within the union [17][19]. - The situation underscores the tension between the EU's aspirations for political integration and the reality of member states prioritizing their national interests, leading to a fragile sense of unity [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after three years of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. has finally imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, including Lukoil, while the EU has announced its 19th round of sanctions targeting Russian liquefied natural gas and a fleet of 117 "shadow ships" [1][3][5] - The sanctions are seen as a strategic move by the U.S. to weaken Russia while also addressing its own focus on China, indicating a shift in priorities [5][7] - The ongoing conflict is perceived as a stalemate, with both sides unwilling to concede, and the sanctions on Russian oil are viewed as a limited measure that may not significantly impact the overall situation [7] Group 2 - Europe is primarily funding its efforts through seized Russian assets, effectively using Russian resources to counteract Russia itself, which highlights the opportunistic nature of the sanctions [5][6] - The sanctions against Russian oil companies are described as a dual-purpose strategy, potentially allowing the U.S. to gain greater control over the oil market by also targeting Venezuela [5][7] - The prolonged nature of the conflict is seen as beneficial for European politicians, who leverage the situation to enhance their own significance and influence [7]