美股当前正陷入一种危险的自满情绪，隐含波动率的定价水平暗示投资者已将美国的政策动向视为"背 景噪音"。尽管标普500指数正向7000点大关发起冲击，但极度廉价的指数波动率与日益积聚的政策风险 之间存在严重错位，市场正面临一场由空头挤压引发的"波动率清算"。 据彭博宏观策略师 Michael Ball 观察，在非农就业数据公布后，尽管地缘政治与政策博弈加剧，但市场 波动率仍处于极低水平。这种估值失真导致抛售波动率（Short-vol）的头寸再度变得极其拥挤，一旦发 生轻微冲击，市场极易陷入被迫平仓、VIX指数飙升以及股票相关性迅速抬高的连锁反应。 目前的市场情绪异常乐观，标普500指数在非农数据后创下历史新高。随着投资者对经济再加速的预期 升温，资金正从权重大盘股向小盘股、道琼斯指数及等权重标普指数轮动。然而，这种基于个股博弈的 策略忽略了宏观维度的结构性风险。 这种脆弱的平衡正面临多重考验。随着本周CPI、PPI数据、银行财报以及1月16日期权到期日 （OPEX）的密集到来，低廉的指数波动率可能随时终结。分析认为，当前单边做空波动率的仓位结构 与2024年7月崩盘前的水平惊人相似，市场正处于一次剧烈回撤的边缘 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 因此前政府停摆导致的人为低通胀数据得到修正，美国2025年年末的消费者价格指数（CPI）可能会加 速上升，这将进一步巩固美联储本月维持利率不变的预期。 长达43天的政府停摆阻碍了去年10月份的价格采集工作，导致美国劳工统计局（BLS）不得不采用"结 转法"（carry-forward method）来估算数据（尤其是租金）以编制去年11月的CPI报告。虽然该月的价格 数据最终得以采集，但这主要发生在下半月，当时零售商正在提供假日季折扣。 这种数据扭曲主要体现在租金指标和商品价格上。在预期消费者通胀回升之前，上周发布的非农数据显 示，尽管就业增长温和，但12月失业率有所下降。 道明证券美国首席宏观策略师Oscar Munoz表示："受数据采集问题影响，我们预计CPI报告将显示出显 著的回补效应，这归因于政府停摆。不过，我们不会看到消费者价格的完全逆转，因为租金方面的回补 要等到2026年4月的报告才会体现。" 经济学家预计价格将加速上涨，尤其是新车、家具和服装等商品，尽管租金方面的疲软倾向可能会持 续。美国劳工统计局使用6个月的面板数据来计算租金和业主等 ...

Group 1 - The China Chief Economist Forum annual conference was held in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Chess in the Middle Game: Building a Strong Nation" with participation from over 50 chief economists and more than 500 experts from various sectors [1] - The forum highlighted the need for China to provide stability to the global economy through its own stable development, as global growth is expected to remain low and uneven [3] - A significant shift in China's financial structure is occurring, with a decrease in the proportion of indirect finance and an increase in direct finance [3][4] Group 2 - The forum discussed the necessity of gradual monetary easing, including interest rate cuts, to guide the economy towards stability and recovery [4] - The development of AI is seen as crucial for creating a complete industrial ecosystem that can transform substantial capital investments into economic value [5] - Predictions for 2026 include the emergence of significant economic bubbles, particularly in gold and AI, driven by technological advancements and resource needs [6][8] Group 3 - The core themes of China's 14th Five-Year Plan emphasize domestic demand, technology, and openness, aiming to establish a unified national market and promote technological breakthroughs [9] - Digital consumption is identified as a key growth area for China's economy, with substantial potential for expansion during the 14th Five-Year period [10] - The forum served as a platform for discussing high-quality development paths for the capital market, with insights aimed at helping investors navigate current market conditions [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which is seen as a challenge to the Fed's independence and reflects the political pressures ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The upcoming 2026 midterm elections are critical for the Trump administration, as a loss for the Republican Party could alter the balance of power in Congress, impacting policy implementation and Trump's political future [1] - Rising living costs are increasing public concern about the future, with a New York Fed survey indicating a worsening perception of credit access among households compared to the previous year [1] - The probability of consumers being unable to make minimum debt payments in the next three months has risen by 1.6 percentage points to 15.3%, the highest level since April 2020, particularly affecting older individuals, those with lower education, and households earning under $50,000 annually [1] Group 2: Policy Measures - The Trump administration is focusing on improving consumer debt affordability, with Trump proposing a cap on credit card interest rates at 10% for one year starting January 20, despite lacking legal support for this measure [2] - Trump's call for a credit card interest rate cap has faced criticism, with concerns that it could lead to credit card companies withdrawing services, forcing consumers to seek high-interest loans [2] - Additionally, Trump has requested Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower interest rates and monthly payments, indicating direct intervention in financial markets [3] Group 3: Market Implications - The administration's strategy of targeting credit card and mortgage rates is seen as a more immediate approach compared to influencing the federal funds rate, which has seen limited adjustments by the Fed [4] - The effectiveness of Trump's request for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy mortgage bonds in genuinely reducing mortgage burdens remains uncertain, as mortgage rates typically follow the trends of long-term U.S. Treasury yields [4]

专题：第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛 第50届清华大学中国与世界经济论坛于1月13日在线上播出。野村证券董事总经理、中国首席经济学家 陆挺谈到黄金走势时表示，过去几年黄金已经大涨了，去年涨了50%，前年涨了30%。"今年大家的一 个共识，跌是不太可能的，还是会涨的。"他说。 他指出，可能涨幅会明显小于去年和前年。 对于黄金价格，过去两年是怎么形成的共识转变？陆挺表示，去年国际的资本市场对于黄金的定价有一 次性定价的调整，现在还有一定的调整空间，但是毕竟每年涨30-50%，难度还是相当大的。金融市场 的特征，有的时候突然间认知调整，涨了一波，后面甚至有一些回调，很长一段时间处于区间波动的状 态。 投资者买黄金，陆挺表示，要跟踪黄金的价格，首先要选好一个基准。由于利率水平不一样，资金跨境 有难度，这个基准在境内和境外是不一样的。"在国际上要买黄金，首先要击败的就是美国国债的收益 率，比如现在十年国债收益率4.2%左右，30年是在4.8%左右，如果每年的黄金价格上涨低于4%左右的 水平，那你投资黄金就失败了。这也是为什么我们预测未来这五年，黄金价格很难跌，但持续大涨是不 太可能的。"他说。 责任编辑：李思阳 专 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi warns that President Trump's directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities may backfire, leading to increased home prices rather than addressing the severe housing affordability issue in the U.S. [1][5] Group 1: Economic Implications - Trump's claim that the directive will restore affordability and the "American Dream" by lowering monthly payments is criticized by Zandi as ignoring basic economics [1][5] - Following the directive, U.S. fixed mortgage rates fell by 10-20 basis points to just above 6%, but Zandi cautions that this relief is misleading [6] - Zandi believes that while lower rates may support housing demand, the severe housing shortage means that this stimulus will likely lead to rising home prices under unchanged conditions [6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Conflict - Zandi highlights a deeper institutional conflict related to the Federal Reserve, noting that despite the Fed's return to quantitative easing in December, it still allows for early payments and maturities of its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [6][7] - The directive for government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to purchase these bonds effectively undermines the Fed's efforts to manage its mortgage portfolio [7] Group 3: Historical Context and Risks - Zandi questions the overreach of executive power in monetary policy, suggesting that it is more concerning than market mechanisms [3][7] - He warns that the re-expansion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's balance sheets, which Trump touts as a great decision, poses a dangerous regression [3][7] - Zandi expresses concern that the principal limits imposed on these institutions after the 2008 financial crisis are gradually eroding, which could lead them back to their pre-crisis role as "giant hedge funds" [4][7]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices stabilized around $4,585 per ounce after a significant increase of 2% in the previous trading day, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following threats from the Trump administration to pursue criminal charges against Chairman Jerome Powell [1][3] - The recent attacks on the Federal Reserve have reignited a trend of selling off dollar assets, leading to a decline in the dollar's exchange rate and a sell-off in U.S. Treasury securities [1][3] - Factors such as increased geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and central banks accumulating gold have contributed to gold prices reaching historical highs last year, with expectations for continued upward momentum through 2026 [1][3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have stabilized after recovering from a 2% drop, with significant volatility driven by speculative inflows, as indicated by the soaring implied volatility of the largest silver ETF [4] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is set to adjust margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures, which will take effect after Tuesday's close, reflecting the increased volatility in precious metals [5] - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce and silver could surpass $100 per ounce within the next three months, with expectations of a continued bull market in precious metals [5]

周一，股市走势再次被金属市场抢占头条。投资者大举增持避险资产，推动黄金与白银价格双双攀升至 前所未有的高度。 在刚刚过去的周末，与美国总统特朗普关的新闻持续发酵，伊朗、委内瑞拉、格陵兰岛等地的紧张局势 也在不断升级。受此影响，贵金属价格大幅走高，这一走势表明，大宗商品"超级周期"正"稳固延续"。 《黄金通讯》主编布莱恩・伦丁（Brien Lundin）表示，周一黄金与白银的上涨行情，虽被市场归因于 特朗普政府向美联储主席鲍威尔施加的压力，但即便没有这一因素，这两种贵金属的价格大概率也会大 幅走高。 "上周，不仅黄金、白银这类货币金属，所有基本金属及大宗商品的价格走势都印证了一点——大宗商 品超级周期的趋势稳固不改。"他在接受《市场观察》采访时表示。所谓超级周期，指的是大宗商品价 格持续上涨的时期，而过去两年间，黄金与白银的价格均录得了尤为强劲的涨幅。 黄金白银双双创下历史纪录 周一，纽约商品交易所（Comex）2月交割的黄金期货价格上涨2.5%，收于每盎司4614.70美元，盘中一 度触及4640.50美元的历史高点；3月交割的白银期货价格上涨7.3%，收于每盎司85.09美元，盘中最高 攀升至86.34美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Government has issued a set of measures aimed at enhancing the quality and efficiency of the service industry and boosting consumption through 28 policy initiatives across seven areas, with a specific focus on the financial sector [1]. Financial Sector Initiatives - The measures encourage financial institutions to innovate and develop financial products tailored to new consumption trends, such as holiday, night, nostalgic, and anime economies, and to implement diverse card discount activities during consumption festivals [5]. - Personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies will be implemented, and the application process for auto loans will be optimized by relaxing conditions and reasonably determining loan issuance ratios, terms, and interest rates [5]. - The development of credit products for large consumer areas like green smart home decoration will be expanded, and mobile payment services will be enhanced [5]. - The measures promote the securitization of retail loans such as personal consumption and credit cards to revitalize existing credit stock [5]. Insurance Product Support - The government plans to upgrade existing inclusive insurance products and increase insurance coverage for specific groups and small micro-enterprises in the service industry [6]. - There will be an expansion of product offerings in travel, accident, and health insurance, along with efforts to synchronize medical insurance and commercial health insurance settlements in major hospitals [6]. - The development of third-pillar pension insurance will be encouraged, with a focus on creating diverse personal pension products and innovative commercial pension offerings [6]. Financial Support for Business Entities - The measures include utilizing policies like service consumption and pension refinancing, as well as government financing guarantees, to support various business entities with loans [6]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate financing products based on expected revenue rights from service contracts and explore new financing models such as ticket revenue pledges [6]. - There will be an emphasis on expanding pledge financing for accounts receivable and intellectual property, as well as supply chain finance [6]. Infrastructure Financial Support - Financial institutions are encouraged to support key projects in the consumption sector, including the renovation of commercial facilities and community service centers, with favorable loan conditions [6]. - The issuance of real estate investment trusts (REITs) for consumption infrastructure will be supported, along with the application of local government special bonds for eligible projects [6]. Overall Strategy - The focus of the measures is on optimizing supply and expanding consumption simultaneously, aiming to cultivate new growth points in service supply and consumer demand to promote high-quality development in the service industry [7]. - The government emphasizes the importance of financial services in stimulating industry and activating consumption, with a growing demand for diverse financial services in wealth management and commercial insurance [7]. - Future efforts will prioritize the integration of service supply and consumer demand, enhancing digital, green, and intelligent consumption, and fostering a favorable environment for sustained consumption growth [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the ongoing recruitment efforts by Nomura Information Technology, particularly for various levels of Java backend developers, highlighting the importance of skilled professionals in the financial services sector [2][3]. - The company is actively seeking candidates for the Risk Capital Technology Department, specifically for the Associate level position of Senior Software Engineer, requiring proficiency in Java/Python and experience in capital market risk [2]. - Nomura Information Technology aims to build a strong development team that collaborates with global IT departments and business stakeholders to maintain market-leading systems, thereby supporting the overall business objectives of the Nomura Group [3]. Group 2 - Nomura is a global financial services institution established in 1925, providing wealth management, investment management, and institutional services, with a commitment to innovation and client service [3]. - The Shanghai-based Nomura Information Technology is a subsidiary of the Nomura Group, focusing on global market technology, capital risk control systems, and enterprise architecture [3]. - The primary responsibility of Nomura Information Technology is to develop and maintain robust systems that align with the group's business goals, emphasizing collaboration with various stakeholders [3].