氧化铝少量检修压产过剩格局不改 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23710元/吨，较上一交易日变化30元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-150元/吨， 较上一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价23610元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化30元/吨至-250元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录23740元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-115元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-21日沪铝主力合约开于23965元/吨，收于24155元/吨，较上一交易日变化135元/吨，最 高价达24250元/吨，最低价达到23660元/吨。全天交易日成交468256手，全天交易日持仓343223手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-22 库存方面，截止2026-01-21，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存74.9万吨，较上一期变化1.3万吨，仓单库存138755 吨，较上一交易日变化-1196吨，LME铝库存507175吨，较上一交易日变化24175吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-01-21SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2615元/吨，山东价格录得2560元/吨，河南价格录得 264 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests focusing on three stock selection criteria in the electrolytic aluminum industry: companies with high capacity-to-market value ratio and significant earnings elasticity with rising aluminum prices, those with overseas expansion capabilities and strong growth potential, and prioritizing companies with high alumina self-sufficiency rates amid current low alumina prices [1] Group 1: Stock Recommendations - CICC maintains a "outperform industry" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), raising the target price from 29.29 HKD to 42.79 HKD [1] - Recommended stocks include: China Hongqiao, Nanshan Aluminum (600219) International H-share (02610/target price 77.76 HKD), Nanshan Aluminum A-share (600219.SH/target price 7.25 RMB), China Aluminum (601600) (02600/target price 17.04 HKD), Tianshan Aluminum (002532) (002532.SZ/target price 22.67 RMB), and Huatong Cable (605196), all rated "outperform industry" [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Chinese aluminum companies are accelerating their overseas expansion due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017, with early movers gaining competitive advantages in resource-rich regions [2] - Companies like China Hongqiao are targeting low-cost regions, particularly in Indonesia, for alumina sourcing, while Guinea's bauxite mining is expected to produce around 170 million tons by 2025, with China Hongqiao projected to be the largest producer at 71 million tons [2] Group 3: Price and Cost Dynamics - The aluminum price increase benefits all electrolytic aluminum companies, with those having a high capacity-to-market value ratio showing greater potential for price appreciation [3] - Companies with alumina self-sufficiency above 100% can benefit from rising alumina prices, as it becomes an internalized cost, leading to increased sales profits [3] - Companies with high self-generated electricity ratios, like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum, are positioned to benefit from falling coal prices, while those with lower ratios face greater cost sensitivity [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for aluminum prices is positive, driven by a growing supply-demand gap and supportive global fiscal and monetary policies, with potential for significant profit expansion as costs remain low [5] - China Hongqiao, Yun Aluminum (000807), and Zhongfu Industrial (600595) are identified as companies with relatively high valuation elasticity, expected to rank among the top performers in 2025 with projected price increases of 177%, 134%, and 171% respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum International (2610.HK) experienced a significant drop of over 10%, trading at HKD 61.7, with trading volume exceeding HKD 2.2 billion [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Nanshan Aluminum announced a placement of 31 million shares, representing approximately 5% of the enlarged share capital [1] - The placement price is set at HKD 64.5 per share, reflecting a discount of 6.39% compared to the previous closing price of HKD 68.9 [1] - The company aims to raise HKD 2 billion through this placement, with a net amount of HKD 1.987 billion expected [1] Group 2: Fund Utilization - The company plans to allocate 90% of the net proceeds towards potential electrolytic aluminum and related raw materials, as well as auxiliary businesses [1] - The remaining 10% of the net proceeds will be used for general working capital [1]

以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪缓和 铝价高位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 基本面来看,截至 1 月 21 日，SMM 进口铝土矿指数报 65.85 美元/吨， 较上一交易日下跌 0.01 美元/吨；SMM 几内亚 FOB ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests focusing on three key stock selection criteria in the electrolytic aluminum industry: companies with high capacity-to-market value ratios and significant earnings elasticity from rising aluminum prices, those with strong overseas expansion capabilities, and prioritizing companies with high alumina self-sufficiency rates amid potential production shutdowns and policy changes [1] Group 1: Stock Selection Criteria - Companies with high capacity-to-market value ratios will benefit more from rising aluminum prices [1] - Firms with overseas expansion capabilities are expected to show stronger growth [1] - Companies with high alumina self-sufficiency rates are preferred, especially as alumina prices have reached a low point [1] Group 2: Company Recommendations - China Hongqiao (01378) is rated "outperform" with a target price raised from 29.29 HKD to 42.79 HKD [1] - Other recommended stocks include Nanshan Aluminum International H shares (02610, target price 77.76 HKD), Nanshan Aluminum A shares (600219.SH, target price 7.25 RMB), China Aluminum (02600, target price 17.04 HKD), Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ, target price 22.67 RMB), and Huatong Cable, all rated "outperform" [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - Chinese aluminum companies are accelerating their overseas expansion due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017 [2] - Companies like China Hongqiao are establishing a presence in low-cost regions, particularly in Indonesia [2] - Guinea's bauxite mining is becoming increasingly active, with projections of 170 million tons by 2025, and China Hongqiao expected to be the largest producer in Guinea [2] Group 4: Price and Cost Dynamics - The aluminum price increase benefits all electrolytic aluminum companies, with those having a high capacity-to-market value ratio showing greater valuation elasticity [3] - Companies with alumina self-sufficiency above 100% will see increased profits from alumina sales as prices rise [3] - Companies with high self-generated electricity ratios, like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum, will benefit more from falling coal prices compared to those with lower ratios [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The industry anticipates a significant revaluation opportunity due to rising aluminum prices and expanding profit margins per ton of aluminum [5] - The supply-demand gap in electrolytic aluminum is expected to widen, supported by favorable fiscal and monetary policies globally [5] - The average valuation for electrolytic aluminum companies is projected to remain around 10 times, indicating substantial upward revaluation potential [5]

2025年11月，全球铝土矿产量为3533.32万吨；2025年11月，氧化铝产量为1285万吨；2025年11月，再 生铝产量为220.42万吨。 1月21日（周三），世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年11月，全球原铝产量为 602.26万吨，消费量为581.76万吨，供应过剩20.49万吨。 2025年1-11月，全球原铝产量为6672.04万吨，消费量为6824.8万吨，供应短缺152.76万吨。 2025年1-11月，全球铝土矿产量为39008.38万吨；2025年1-11月，氧化铝产量为13985.18万吨；2025年1- 11月，再生铝产量为2421.44万吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum International's stock has dropped over 5%, currently trading at 65.2 HKD, following the announcement of a share placement [1] Group 1: Share Placement Details - Nanshan Aluminum International announced a placement of 31 million shares, representing approximately 5% of the enlarged share capital [1] - The placement price is set at 64.5 HKD per share, which is a discount of about 6.39% compared to the closing price of 68.9 HKD on January 21 [1] - If fully subscribed, the gross proceeds from the placement are expected to be approximately 1.9995 billion HKD, with net proceeds around 1.9868 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - Approximately 90% of the net proceeds will be allocated to potential electrolytic aluminum and related raw materials, as well as auxiliary businesses [1] - The remaining 10% of the proceeds will be used for general working capital [1]

南山铝业在披露折价配股后，股价下跌6.3%，至64.55港元。 ...

Group 1 - Nanshan Aluminum International's stock fell over 5%, specifically by 5.37%, trading at 65.2 HKD with a transaction volume of 2.039 billion HKD [1] - The company announced a placement of 31 million shares, representing approximately 5% of the enlarged share capital, at a price of 64.5 HKD per share, which is a discount of about 6.39% compared to the closing price of 68.9 HKD on January 21 [1] - If the subscription is fully placed, the total amount expected from the subscription is approximately 1.9995 billion HKD, with a net amount of about 1.9868 billion HKD, of which around 90% will be used for potential electrolytic aluminum and related raw materials and auxiliary businesses, while 10% will be allocated for general working capital [1]

Group 1: Innovation Industry (02788.HK) - The company focuses on low-cost green electricity aluminum production, with overseas projects supporting high capacity growth [9][10] - Established 6*330MW coal-fired self-supplied power units and 788,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity in Inner Mongolia [10] - The company is set to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2025, with a projected net profit growth of 51%/63%/34% from 2025 to 2027 [11] Group 2: Angel Yeast (600298.SH) - The company is the leading yeast producer in China and the second largest globally, with a fermentation capacity of 400,000 tons by 2024 [12][13] - It has a market share of 55% in China, benefiting from a global oligopoly structure in the yeast industry [12] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by declining raw material costs and expanding overseas operations, with projected net profits of 15.8/19.7/23.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [15] Group 3: Agricultural Industry - The new import beef policy will reduce the volume but increase prices, with a projected 20% decrease in beef imports in 2026 compared to 2024 [27][28] - Global beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reductions in major producing regions, with a 60% increase from the bottom by December 2025 [28][29] - The domestic beef market is expected to see price increases driven by reduced supply and increased demand, with a significant tightening of supply anticipated from 2026 to 2028 [29][30] Group 4: Computer Industry - The AI industry is expected to see continued growth in computing power, with major companies like Microsoft and Google increasing capital expenditures significantly [35][36] - The demand for AI infrastructure is driving upgrades in optical modules and PCBs, with a shift towards liquid cooling technology due to rising power density [36][37] - The AI cycle is characterized by sustained penetration driven by technological iterations, differing from previous cycles that experienced peaks and declines [37]