Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nanshan Aluminum International with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of HKD 78.18 based on a PE of 13 times for 2026 [1]. Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum is a leading alumina producer in Southeast Asia with a stable cash flow and high growth potential, having established a production capacity of 4 million tons of alumina and plans for additional aluminum production [1][2]. - The company benefits from significant cost advantages in its alumina business due to Indonesia's rich bauxite resources and export bans, leading to higher profitability compared to domestic averages [2][14]. - A new 250,000-ton aluminum production capacity is expected to be operational by 2028, which could significantly boost future earnings [3][15]. - The global aluminum price is projected to reach an average of USD 3,200 per ton in 2026, supported by limited supply growth and recovering demand [4][16]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Nanshan Aluminum International is primarily engaged in alumina production and sales, with a production base in Indonesia. The company has a total alumina capacity of 4 million tons, benefiting from low raw material costs [2][14]. - The company is controlled by Nanshan Aluminum, which holds a 56.97% stake, ensuring stable governance and resource support [18][20]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of USD 1.2 billion, USD 1.48 billion, and USD 1.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Net profits are expected to reach USD 412.1 million, USD 475.3 million, and USD 568.3 million in the same years [5][11]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin, with a projected gross profit margin of 51% in the first half of 2025 [21][27]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the global supply of aluminum is expected to grow slowly, with a projected increase of only 1.7% in 2026. This is due to domestic production constraints and slow recovery in overseas capacities [4][34]. - Demand for aluminum is anticipated to grow by approximately 2.4% in 2026, driven by a recovery in the global manufacturing sector [4][16]. Future Growth Potential - The planned 250,000-ton aluminum project is expected to contribute approximately USD 259 million in net profit once operational, with further expansion plans for an additional 500,000 tons in the future [3][15]. - The company’s low-cost structure and stable cash flow from its alumina business are expected to support its growth trajectory and profitability in the coming years [2][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading producer in the aluminum industry, with over 70% of its revenue coming from electrolytic aluminum, and it is the second-largest aluminum producer globally [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company has an alumina production capacity of 19 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.46 million tons [1]. - The indirect controlling shareholder is China Hongqiao, which is the profit center for the company [2]. Group 2: Production and Cost Advantages - The company sources over 80% of its bauxite from Guinea, which is stable and has low price volatility, effectively mitigating resource risks [2]. - The alumina production is located in Shandong, providing a cost advantage of approximately 250 RMB/ton compared to inland production due to lower transportation costs [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum capacity is primarily located in Shandong (4.46 million tons) and Yunnan (2 million tons), with plans to increase Yunnan's capacity to 3 million tons by 2028 [2]. - The company faces higher electricity costs, purchasing power from an affiliated power plant at a price of 0.51 RMB/kWh, but there is potential for cost reduction as electricity prices in Shandong are expected to decrease [2]. Group 3: Dividend Policy and Financial Projections - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, committing to a minimum of 80% cash dividends from profits for the next three years (2025-2027) [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 166.2 billion, 177.3 billion, and 177.3 billion RMB, with net profits of 19.31 billion, 29.21 billion, and 30.39 billion RMB, respectively [3]. - The estimated earnings per share for the same period are 1.48, 2.24, and 2.33 RMB, with a projected profit growth rate of 6.4%, 51.3%, and 4.0% [3]. - The company's reasonable valuation range is estimated to be between 31.4 and 35.8 RMB, indicating a premium of 7% to 22% over the current market value [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Wash trade, the aluminum price has significantly corrected, releasing industrial contradictions. However, at the current time and price level, it is difficult to stimulate downstream active procurement. With downstream entering the holiday period, the social inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally, exerting significant pressure on prices. Although there are expectations for the Two Sessions after the holiday, the aluminum price is unlikely to perform well under inventory pressure. In the short term, it is advisable to avoid risks as the long holiday approaches. In the long term, consumption resilience and strength are expected to remain positive, especially in the export market, and with a strong macro environment of simultaneous easing at home and abroad, the long - term aluminum price is likely to rise rather than fall [6] - The domestic supply pressure of alumina has not been alleviated. Although there are rumors about an alumina plant in Hebei, it is unlikely to have a substantial impact. The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and social inventory continues to increase. With the decline in the price of domestic ore in the north, the procurement enthusiasm of alumina plants for ore has decreased, and the import ore price is also falling. The cost side is difficult to provide strong support, and alumina plants are unlikely to initiate large - scale production cuts. The futures price is still at a premium, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change, with social inventory continuing to rise. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material inventory, and the winter storage expectation is low. Although the current futures price discount to the spot price will relieve the pressure on warehouse receipts, it is difficult to change the inventory pressure [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 23,400 yuan/ton, a change of 260 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum is - 170 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 23,280 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed - 30 yuan/ton to - 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 23,430 yuan/ton, a change of 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed 15 yuan/ton to - 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,500 yuan/ton, closed at 23,540 yuan/ton, a change of 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 23,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,425 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 304,640 lots, and the position was 197,639 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of February 9, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 857,000 tons, a change of 21,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 164,512 tons, a change of 8,979 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 488,975 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On February 9, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 311 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On February 9, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,840 yuan/ton, closed at 2,868 yuan/ton, a change of 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of 1.45%. The highest price reached 2,937 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,769 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 1,076,076 lots, and the position was 333,870 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 9, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 17,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 17,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 67,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 84,600 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,430 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 570 yuan/ton [5]

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，氧化铝行业供给整体呈小幅收缩态势，2026年1月氧化铝亏损面 较2025年12月有明显扩大。从盈利看，氧化铝行业亏损面扩大，供给收缩有望刺激价格反弹。反内卷在 氧化铝行业的推动，着重在于强化管理和优化布局，重塑供需格局。此外，该行认为，2026年几内亚新 总统上台后，矿业政策的变化，可能会扰动全球铝土矿供应格局，从而刺激价格反转上行。 从反内卷看，格局重塑有望驱动价格中枢回归 该行认为，反内卷在氧化铝行业的推动，着重在于强化管理和优化布局，一方面对存量项目进行严格的 项目合规审查和环保能耗等监测;另一方面对新项目要满足国家产业调控要求，防止盲目投资和无序建 设，这可能对远期供应形成压制，重塑氧化铝供需格局。 从几内亚看，矿业政策扰动有望驱动铝土矿和氧化铝价格反转上行 几内亚对全球铝土矿供给影响较大，据CRU和中国海关数据，2025年几内亚铝土矿产量全球占比 40.6%，占中国进口铝土矿比例74.3%。该行认为，2026年几内亚新总统上台后，矿业政策的变化，可 能会扰动全球铝土矿供应格局，从而刺激价格反转上行。 中金主要观点如下： 行业近况 据SMM，2026年1月中国冶金级 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products. It analyzes factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, and market sentiment to predict price trends [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Metals - **Aluminum**: The approved power transmission project in Inner Mongolia will boost aluminum consumption in the long - term. Currently, due to the traditional off - season, the market is quiet. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival and recover after [1]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the steel market is mostly closed, with low winter - storage willingness and weak post - holiday demand expectations. Iron ore has a supply surplus, and steel prices are expected to be weakly stable in the short - term. Iron ore prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term due to inventory pressure and macro - expectations [4]. - **Coke**: With the expected resumption of downstream steel mills, the coke supply - demand structure remains healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may stabilize, and the futures price will follow coking coal [5]. - **Copper**: Global mining capital is accelerating the layout of long - term copper projects, but the impact on the current supply shortage is limited. Before the Spring Festival, the spot market is quiet, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Russian oil production has declined, and the U.S. has increased sanctions on Russia. The market is waiting for the results of the U.S. - Iran negotiations. Geopolitical factors are the main drivers of oil prices, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol has a high operating rate, while downstream demand is decreasing, and port inventory is accumulating. The inland market is relatively strong in some areas, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply may increase slightly, while demand has basically ended. It is affected by the cost side, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the domestic terminal提货 speed has accelerated, more ships have been purchased in the near - term, and inventory has increased, suppressing the basis price. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has risen significantly and is at a historically high level. Due to losses in the breeding industry, demand is weak. The price is expected to stabilize in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support level [6][7]. - **Pork**: The national pig price continues to decline, with pressure on the supply side and insufficient demand. The short - term downward space is limited, and short - long positions in far - month contracts are recommended [5]. 3.4 Others - **Soda Ash**: The float glass industry has stable production but rising inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with a supply surplus and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9]. - **Plastic**: As the Spring Festival approaches, production is expected to be stable, but production enterprise inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly in the short - term [10]. - **Rubber**: Overseas rubber - producing areas have entered the off - season, supporting prices, but downstream demand is weak due to the approaching holiday. Rubber prices will likely fluctuate within a range in the short - term [11]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Tightening of the money supply is negative for short - term bonds, but bond prices are rising. The short - term direction of the bond market is unclear, and it is expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Silver and Gold**: Employment data may cause market fluctuations, and consumer confidence is positive for silver. Geopolitical uncertainties in Europe and the U.S. support gold prices. Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the medium - term [12][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the aluminum market is experiencing upward price movements due to strong US stock performance and dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have boosted market sentiment [1][2] - The latest closing price for London aluminum is reported at $3130 per ton, reflecting an increase of $20 or 0.64%, while the Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 23625 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan or 0.17% [1] - Domestic downstream demand remains supportive despite a slight decline in the weekly operating rate of the aluminum processing industry, with low-level stocking needs still present [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in the US dollar index by 0.8%, reaching its lowest level in over a week, which supports aluminum prices as it enhances the attractiveness of risk products for overseas buyers [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to increase, but the extent of this increase is limited, resulting in relatively small supply pressure [2] - Market liquidity concerns have eased, leading to a recovery in risk appetite, with copper and tin prices rising and positively influencing other non-ferrous metals [3]

Core Viewpoint - The spot prices of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) have significantly increased across various regions in China as of February 9, 2026, indicating strong market demand or supply constraints, which is favorable for spot prices [1][4]. Price Summary - In East China, the price is quoted at 23,400 CNY/ton, in South China at 23,430 CNY/ton, in Southwest China at 23,370 CNY/ton, and in Central China at 23,280 CNY/ton. These prices represent increases of 260 CNY/ton, 290 CNY/ton, 260 CNY/ton, and 250 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous trading day (February 6) [1][4]. Market Analysis - The significant price increases suggest robust demand for aluminum or tight supply conditions, which is likely driven by a recovery in downstream manufacturing or a reduction in inventory levels, leading to a bullish sentiment in the short term [2][5]. Pricing Mechanism - The benchmark price from the Business Society is derived from big data and pricing models, serving as a trading guide price. It can be used to determine settlement prices for specified dates or average prices over specified periods. The pricing formula is: Settlement Price = Business Society Benchmark Price × K + C, where K is an adjustment coefficient and C includes premiums related to logistics, brand price differences, and regional price differences [2][3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The company has entered into guarantee agreements with two banks to provide financial support for its wholly-owned subsidiaries, indicating a strategic move to enhance liquidity and operational stability [1] Group 1: Guarantee Agreements - The company signed a "Maximum Irrevocable Guarantee" with China Merchants Bank Hangzhou Branch, providing a maximum joint liability guarantee of RMB 80 million for its subsidiary Hangzhou Wuxing Aluminum Co., Ltd. [1] - Additionally, the company entered into a "Maximum Guarantee Contract" with Industrial Bank Hangzhou Linping Branch, offering a maximum joint liability guarantee of RMB 200 million for its subsidiary Hangzhou Dingfu Aluminum Co., Ltd. [1] - Both guarantees are within the authorization limits set by the company's 2024 annual general meeting and have been signed by the chairman [1] Group 2: Financial Position - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries amount to RMB 278.85 million, which represents 41.81% of the most recent audited net assets [1] - There are no overdue guarantees reported by the company [1]

长城证券研报指出，中国铝业拟收购巴西铝业，打开海外产能扩张空间。公司拟与国际矿业巨头力拓斥 资62.86亿元人民币，联合收购巴西铝业68.596%股权。前述收购完成后，巴西铝业将成为公司的附属公 司，纳入公司合并报表范围。巴西铝业目前拥有3 座在产铝土矿山，年铝土矿产量约200万吨，氧化铝 产能80万吨/年，电解铝产能43万吨/年，下游加工产能21.5万吨/年，原铝产量占比超过巴西市场三分之 一。此外，巴西铝业还控股或参股21座水电站和4个风电站，权益装机规模1.6吉瓦，年权益发电量约70 亿度，全部为可再生能源，且均为铝产业自备电。中国铝行业头部企业，综合实力位居全球铝行业前 列。结合公司2月4日收盘价，对应PE分别为15.1/10.0/6.5倍，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and suggest buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short-term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper, aluminum, and nickel are advised to wait and see; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][11] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash are advised to wait and see; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust sideways; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][25] - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs are in short-term supply-demand games, and off-season contracts suggest shorting on rallies; eggs are overvalued, and post-festival contracts can be hedged on rallies; corn is cautious about chasing highs in the short term, and grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal's M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term; oils are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, suggesting buying on dips and being cautious about risks before the holiday [1][27] Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures varieties from multiple aspects such as macro factors, supply and demand fundamentals, and cost factors. It provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the characteristics and trends of each variety, including trading strategies and points to watch [1][6]. Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: Due to overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances, they are expected to trade strongly sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [6] - Government bonds: There is no obvious major negative in the bond market, but there is no further impetus to push interest rates down. They are expected to trade sideways [6] Black building materials - Double coking: The coal market shows short-term fluctuations, and the sustainability of the price increase is insufficient. It is recommended for short-term trading [7][8] - Rebar: The futures price is undervalued statically, and the cost support is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and light positions are recommended before the holiday [8] - Glass: Affected by production line shutdowns and demand, the price is expected to trade sideways and is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: Affected by macro factors, it is expected to trade at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Aluminum: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is under pressure. It is recommended to increase the observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - Nickel: Affected by the Indonesian quota reduction, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - Tin: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is rigid. It is expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [15] - Gold and silver: Affected by the Fed's expected policy change, the mid-term price center moves up. They are expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [16] - Lithium carbonate: Affected by supply and demand, it is expected to trade in a range [17] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [17][19] - Caustic soda: The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - Styrene: The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [20][21] - Rubber: The supply is tightened, and the demand is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [22] - Methanol: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [23] - Polyolefins: The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. They are expected to trade weakly sideways [23][24] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost is rising. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The global supply and demand are improving, but the internal and external price difference suppresses the price. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [25] - Apples and jujubes: The market is stable, and they are expected to trade sideways [25][27] Agricultural and livestock - Pigs: The short-term supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies for off-season contracts [27] - Eggs: The supply pressure is postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hedge post-festival contracts on rallies [29] - Corn: The short-term market is balanced, and the medium to long-term supply and demand are loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies [30] - Soybean meal: The M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 3030 [31] - Oils: They are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to risks before the holiday [31][36]