Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum achieved stable performance with a revenue of 15.328 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 11.19% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.084 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year [4] - The company has a strong integrated supply chain advantage, which helps maintain stable production and performance amid high volatility in aluminum prices and costs. In the first half of 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 585,400 tons, remaining stable year-on-year, while sales increased by approximately 2% [4] - The company is expanding its upstream resource capabilities and electrolytic aluminum smelting capacity, with a green low-carbon transformation project for 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity expected to be completed in about 10 months, increasing its capacity from 1.2 million tons to 1.4 million tons [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.59. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.20% [4] - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 20,250 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 2.8% year-on-year, while the average selling price of self-produced alumina was about 3,700 yuan/ton (including tax), up about 6% year-on-year [4] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 4.569 billion yuan, 5.857 billion yuan, and 6.495 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98, 1.26, and 1.40 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 116.39 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.12%, with a net profit of 7.07 billion yuan, up 0.81% year-over-year [2]. - The report highlights that the high aluminum prices are expected to support stable growth in the company's performance in the future [1]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.76%, with a slight decrease of 0.49 percentage points year-over-year, while Q2 gross margin improved to 17.60%, up 1.74 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [3]. - The report notes a significant reduction in power costs due to falling coal prices, which is expected to enhance profits [4]. - The outlook for aluminum prices in H2 2025 is optimistic, driven by low inventory levels and sustained demand from sectors like solar energy and automotive [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 60.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.87% year-over-year but an increase of 8.65% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The company’s net profit for Q2 was 3.53 billion yuan, down 26.18% year-over-year and slightly down 0.13% quarter-over-quarter [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.76%, with Q2 showing an improvement to 17.60% [3]. - The report attributes the increase in gross margin to lower energy and alumina raw material costs [3]. Production and Capacity - The company aims for a total alumina production of 16.81 million tons and aluminum production of 7.8 million tons for the year [4]. - The self-sufficiency rate for alumina ore significantly increased by 6% to a five-year high [4]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.82 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.11 billion yuan, which represents about 30% of its net profit for H1 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the profit forecast for the company for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 15.06 billion yuan, 15.66 billion yuan, and 16.22 billion yuan respectively [6]. - The target price for the company is set at 10.56 yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12 times for 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum futures prices have continued to rise, with the current price at $2615 per ton, reflecting a 0.42% increase from the opening price [1] LME Aluminum Futures Market Review - On August 27, LME aluminum futures opened at $2635.0, reached a high of $2646.0, a low of $2594.5, and closed at $2603.5, marking a decrease of 1.35% [1] Aluminum Market News - As of August 27, LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 468,750 tons, with canceled receipts at 12,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; total aluminum inventory increased by 3,175 tons to 481,250 tons [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum warehouse receipts were at 57,351 tons, an increase of 1,077 tons compared to the previous trading day [1] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.9, with an import loss of 1,431.43 yuan per ton, compared to a loss of 1,312.81 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan International maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price from HKD 18.00 to HKD 26.10 based on peer valuation multiples and long-term cost advantages from capacity migration [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Hongqiao's profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to grow by 35.0% year-on-year, aligning with previous profit forecasts [1] - The profit growth is driven by three factors: rising prices of primary aluminum and alumina improving profit margins, enhanced operational efficiency, and optimized debt structure leading to lower financial costs [1] - The management is confident about future development and has announced a stock repurchase plan of no less than HKD 3 billion, having already invested HKD 2.61 billion in stock buybacks in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Cost Optimization - Capacity migration further drives cost optimization, with the second half of the year typically entering a wet/normal water period in Yunnan, significantly reducing electricity costs [2] - The company plans to migrate 241,000 tons of capacity from Shandong to Yunnan Hongtai, starting operations by the end of March 2025 [2] - By July 2025, Shandong Hongqiao will permanently exit 448,000 tons of capacity, with 69,750 tons moving to Yunnan Hongtai and 160,700 tons to Yunnan Honghe, enhancing cost advantages due to declining coal prices and ongoing capacity transfers [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum announced plans to establish a joint venture with its controlling shareholder, Chalco Group, and its subsidiaries, Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd., Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co., Ltd., and Chalco Capital Holdings Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1 - The company intends to invest RMB 300 million in cash and physical assets, acquiring a 20% stake in the joint venture [1]

Core Insights - China Aluminum (601600.SH) reported a total operating revenue of 116.39 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, ranking second among disclosed peers, with a year-on-year increase of 5.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 7.07 billion yuan, ranking third among peers, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.81% [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 14.27 billion yuan, ranking second among peers, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.30% [1] Financial Metrics - The latest debt-to-asset ratio is 46.88%, ranking 20th among peers, down 1.05 percentage points from the previous quarter and down 3.09 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The latest gross profit margin is 16.76%, ranking 13th among peers, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.90 percentage points [3] - The return on equity (ROE) stands at 9.73%, ranking 8th among peers [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.41 yuan, ranking 14th among peers, with a year-on-year increase of 0.98% [3] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.53 times, ranking 23rd among peers, with a year-on-year increase of 1.70% [3] - The inventory turnover ratio is 3.86 times, ranking 20th among peers, with a year-on-year increase of 1.01% [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is 366,900, with the top ten shareholders holding 11.23 billion shares, accounting for 65.49% of the total share capital [3] - The largest shareholder is China Aluminum Group Co., Ltd., holding 30.52% [3] - Other significant shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited (H shares) at 22.94% and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited (A shares) at 3.17% [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's stock price dropped nearly 5% after the release of its interim results, reflecting market concerns over its financial performance despite a slight increase in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, China Aluminum reported operating revenue of 116.392 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.12% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 7.071 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.81% [1] - In the second quarter, the company experienced a decline in operating revenue to 60.61 billion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in the second quarter was 3.53 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.123 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.11 billion yuan, which represents 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Market Outlook - Huatai Securities noted that low inventory levels are currently supporting high aluminum prices, and demand in the photovoltaic sector is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the second half of the year despite the end of the policy-driven installation surge [1] - The automotive sector is also anticipated to sustain high growth due to domestic vehicle replacement policies [1] - The overseas economy is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year amid a rate-cutting cycle [1] - The firm maintains an optimistic outlook for aluminum demand in the second half of 2025, predicting a potential upward trend in aluminum prices [1] - In terms of alumina, the mining sector has entered a destocking phase, making it difficult for bauxite prices to decline, while the alumina segment may face a loose supply situation but is unlikely to see significant price drops due to cost support [1]

华泰证券指出，从基本面角度来看，低库存是当前支撑铝价身处高位的主要因素，而展望后市，光伏领 域由于分布式装机量的占比抬升，即使政策抢装潮已结束，其对铝需求或在下半年仍维持较高增速，大 概率不会出现需求较大幅度下滑；汽车领域则在国内以旧换新政策支撑下或维持高增速；同时海外经济 体下半年在降息周期下呈现逐步修复状态。该行对25年下半年铝需求端维持乐观，预期下半年铝价或呈 现震荡上行走势。而氧化铝方面，由于矿端已开启去库周期，因此铝土矿价格难以下跌，氧化铝环节即 使面临供给偏松格局，但成本支撑下，价格进一步下跌概率较小。 智通财经APP获悉，中国铝业(02600)绩后跌近5%，截至发稿，跌2.8%，报6.94港元，成交额9497.82万 港元。 消息面上，中国铝业发布中期业绩，上半年营业收入1163.92亿元，同比增长5.12%；净利润70.71亿 元，同比增长0.81%。第二季度，公司营业收入为606.1亿元，同比下降1.9%；归母净利润为35.3亿元， 同比下降26.2%。拟每股派发现金红利0.123元，预计总派发金额为21.1亿元，占归母净利润的30%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's mid-year performance report for 2025 highlights strong momentum in high-quality development, with record production and profit levels across major products, driven by extreme operational management and technological innovation [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, China Aluminum achieved a revenue of 116.39 billion yuan, a profit total of 13.25 billion yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.07 billion yuan [2]. - The production of alumina, primary aluminum, and fine alumina increased by 4.88%, 9.37%, and 0.48% year-on-year, respectively, marking the best historical performance for the same period [2]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The company has strengthened its extreme operational management, focusing on minimizing costs across production lines and optimizing the entire industry chain, leading to systematic improvements in resource security, cost competitiveness, and supply chain resilience [2]. - The self-sufficiency rate of alumina ore increased by 6 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year, with a 42% year-on-year growth in ore return from the Guinea project [3]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - China Aluminum has enhanced its research and development capabilities, with 403 patents granted in the first half of the year, a 28.3% increase from the previous year, and 36 international patent applications, up 44% year-on-year [3]. - The company achieved significant breakthroughs in key technologies, with over 56% coverage of new electrolytic cell technologies and maintaining a global leading position in red mud utilization [3]. Group 4: Corporate Governance and Market Recognition - The company has implemented deep reforms to optimize its organizational structure and enhance management efficiency, with a planned mid-term dividend payout ratio of approximately 30% [4]. - China Aluminum has received high credit ratings, maintaining the highest rating in the non-ferrous industry, and has been recognized with several awards, including the "Best Listed Company" and "ESG Best Practice Award" [4].

Core Viewpoint - Innovation International Industrial Group Limited has submitted a prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking its second attempt after a previous application lapsed in July 2025. The company derives nearly 80% of its revenue from related parties, and while its performance showed significant growth over the past three years, there has been a noticeable decline in profit quality in the first five months of 2025 [1][8]. Company Overview - Established in 2012, Innovation International focuses on the production and sale of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with its chairman, Cui Lixin, holding 100% ownership through Bloomsbury Holding. The company operates primarily in the upstream aluminum production sector, which includes bauxite mining, alumina refining, and electrolytic aluminum smelting [4]. - According to a report by CRU, Innovation International is the third-largest electrolytic aluminum production base in North China and ranks as the twelfth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China [4]. Production Capacity - The company has an annual design capacity of 788,100 tons for electrolytic aluminum and 1,200,000 tons for alumina. It has also received approval for a hydroxide aluminum production capacity of 2,980,000 tons, with 1,480,000 tons already in operation and the remaining 1,500,000 tons in trial production [4]. Revenue and Profitability - For the years 2022 to 2024 and the first five months of 2025, the company's revenue figures were 13.49 billion, 13.815 billion, 15.163 billion, and 7.214 billion respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.0% over the three years. Corresponding net profits were 0.913 billion, 1.081 billion, 2.63 billion, and 0.855 billion [8]. - The gross margin significantly declined from 28.2% in 2024 to 19.9% in the first five months of 2025, a drop of 8.3 percentage points, while the net profit margin fell from 17.3% to 11.9%, a decrease of 5.4 percentage points [8]. Revenue Sources - The primary revenue source for Innovation International is electrolytic aluminum, contributing 95.5%, 90.5%, 85.0%, and 76.6% of total revenue in the respective periods. Notably, revenue from related party Innovation New Materials accounted for 78.8%, 76.6%, and 59.8% of total revenue in 2023, 2024, and the first five months of 2025, indicating a potential risk of dependency on a single client [8]. Future Plans - The funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to expanding overseas production capacity, including the construction of electrolytic aluminum smelting plants and the purchase of production equipment. Additionally, investments will be made in green energy projects, including the establishment of renewable energy power stations [9].