证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 策略月报 2 月热点或将延续 1 月的科技、有色等方向 ——2026 年 02 月 A 股策略 率窄幅震荡》 2025.11.25 证书编号：S0500519120001 Tel：(8621) 50295323 Email：qh3062@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 相关研究： 2026 年宏观短周期和中周期有望形成向上共振格局 1. 《20251125湘财证券-策略研 究-12月等待政策定调，市场大概 2. 《20251222湘财证券-策略研 究-1月市场大概率继续窄幅震荡》 2025.12.22 我们预判 2026 年宏观中周期和宏观短周期均处于底部反弹的阶段，有望形 成向上共振格局。具体原因有：一是海外方面，中美贸易冲突缓和，有助于 减轻经济下行压力。二是"十五五"规划即将落地，新质生产力依然是重要 发展方向，随着人工智能等科技领域的快速发展，将有效推动我国产业升级。 三是 2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议定调 2026 年宏观政策为继续实施更加 积极的财政政策、适度 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Puyuan Information's stock increased by 5.06% to 35.09 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.20 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.84%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 3.274 billion CNY [1] - Puyuan Information Technology Co., Ltd. is located in the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Pilot Zone and was established on March 26, 2003, with its listing date on December 4, 2019. The company primarily provides software infrastructure platforms and application software development services to large and medium-sized users in various industries, including finance, government, energy, telecommunications, and manufacturing [1] - The company's revenue composition indicates that 84.68% comes from software infrastructure platform business, while 15.32% is from application development based on the software infrastructure platform [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of Puyuan Information's top ten circulating shareholders, Huabao Fund's Huabao CSI Financial Technology Theme ETF (159851) entered the top ten shareholders in the third quarter, holding 1.2853 million shares, which accounts for 1.38% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 2.1722 million CNY [2] - The Huabao CSI Financial Technology Theme ETF (159851) was established on March 4, 2021, with a latest scale of 12.319 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 4.31%, ranking 2828 out of 5542 in its category; the one-year return is 27.58%, ranking 2707 out of 4243; and since inception, the return is 76.52% [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of Huabao CSI Financial Technology Theme ETF are Chen Jianhua and Cao Xucheng. As of the report, Chen Jianhua has a cumulative tenure of 13 years and 34 days, with a total fund asset scale of 27.702 billion CNY, achieving a best fund return of 186.34% and a worst return of -49.65% during his tenure [3] - Cao Xucheng has a cumulative tenure of 245 days, with a total fund asset scale of 35.182 billion CNY, achieving a best fund return of 132.7% and a worst return of -2.42% during his tenure [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Foxit Software has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.13% and a year-to-date increase of 23.56%, indicating volatility in its market performance [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Foxit Software achieved a revenue of 676 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.81%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.41 million yuan, showing a significant decline of 96.37% compared to the previous period [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 169 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 94.04 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Foxit Software increased by 12.80% to 8,672, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 11.35% to 10,544 shares [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 2.75 million shares, which is a decrease of 671,500 shares from the previous period. New shareholder 华夏创新前沿股票A holds 828,400 shares [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of January 21, the stock price of Foxit Software was 110.30 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 10.08 billion yuan. The trading volume was 98.22 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.96% [1]. - The stock has seen a decline of 11.76% over the last five trading days, but a significant increase of 51.24% over the past 60 days [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.735 billion to 3.282 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 80% [1]. - The company's Q4 2025 net profit is projected to be between 1.529 billion and 2.076 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 30.5% to 77.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 117.2% to 194.9% [1]. - The increase in user activity on the company's website and app, along with the growing demand from financial clients, has led to a rise in advertising and internet promotion service revenue [1]. - The number of new A-share accounts opened in 2025 has exceeded that of 2024, reaching 27.44 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [2]. - The A-share trading volume for 2025 is expected to grow by 63.3% year-on-year, reaching 420 trillion yuan [2]. - The company is investing in artificial intelligence and has developed a benchmark for evaluating large language models in financial scenarios, enhancing its product competitiveness [3]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.458 billion, 8.303 billion, and 10.299 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.972 billion, 3.925 billion, and 4.991 billion yuan [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 5.53 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 64.7 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.735 billion to 3.282 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 80% [1] - The company anticipates a significant increase in user activity on its website and app, driven by the expansion into lifestyle, consumption, and technology clients, as well as increased demand from financial clients such as securities and funds [1] - The report highlights the company's ongoing investment in artificial intelligence and the development of a large language model evaluation benchmark specifically designed for financial scenarios, which is expected to enhance product competitiveness and user experience [3] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 6.458 billion yuan, 8.303 billion yuan, and 10.299 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 2.972 billion yuan, 3.925 billion yuan, and 4.991 billion yuan for the same years [3][5] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 54.2% in 2025, 28.6% in 2026, and 24.0% in 2027 [5] - The report indicates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach 5.53 yuan in 2025, 7.30 yuan in 2026, and 9.28 yuan in 2027 [5] Market Trends - The number of new A-share accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange has exceeded 27.44 million in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [2] - The trading volume of A-shares is expected to grow by 63.3% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 420 trillion yuan [2] - The report suggests that the company, as a leader in financial traffic, is likely to benefit from the ongoing bull market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, 易华录, plans to terminate two fundraising projects: the "Super Storage R&D Project" and the "AI Training Resource Library and Global Video Perception Service Platform Project," reallocating approximately 355 million yuan of remaining funds to supplement working capital permanently. This decision is subject to shareholder approval [2]. Group 1: Project Termination Reasons - The reasons for terminating the projects include changes in the economic environment, shifts in customer demand, and strategic adjustments within the company [2][6]. - The company has noted that the current economic uncertainties have led to lower-than-expected demand in traditional IT sectors, making investment returns unclear [6]. - Rapid technological advancements in storage media have necessitated further adjustments and improvements, leading to concerns about the cost-effectiveness of continued investment in these projects [6]. Group 2: Financial Overview - In 2023, the company completed a private placement, raising a net amount of approximately 1.57 billion yuan [2]. - The "Super Storage R&D Project" had a planned total investment of about 310 million yuan, with approximately 138 million yuan allocated from the raised funds, but only 25.22% of the investment has been utilized so far [4][5]. - The "AI Training Resource Library and Global Video Perception Service Platform Project" had a planned total investment of about 938 million yuan, with around 309 million yuan allocated, and only 19.77% of the investment has been utilized [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Shift - The company is shifting its main business focus from data lake operations to data elements and smart transportation, which has influenced the decision to terminate the aforementioned projects [6][8]. - The anticipated returns from the AI-related services are now deemed insufficient due to structural changes in customer demand and the company's strategic realignment [8]. Group 4: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of approximately 415 million yuan, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of about 535 million yuan [11]. - The company has indicated that the net profit for the entire year of 2025 is expected to be negative, exceeding the previous year's audited net assets [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiuqi Software (002279.SZ), forecasts a turnaround in its financial performance for the year 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 40 million to 60 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between 35 million to 50 million yuan [1] - The company does not anticipate any significant goodwill impairment for the year 2025 [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company is enhancing the empowerment of its management software and digital marketing businesses through AI technology [1] - There is a focus on implementing market penetration strategies to actively expand into local markets [1] - The company aims to improve project management and ensure effective project delivery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiuqi Software, forecasts a net profit of 40 million to 60 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, marking a turnaround from losses to profitability [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 40 million and 60 million yuan, indicating a return to profitability [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between 35 million and 50 million yuan [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company aims to enhance its management software and digital marketing business through the integration of AI technology [1] - There is a focus on implementing a market penetration strategy to actively expand into local markets [1] - The company is committed to improving project management and ensuring effective project delivery [1] Group 3: Financial Health - The company does not anticipate significant goodwill impairment provisions for the year 2025 [1] - The operational performance for 2025 is expected to achieve a turnaround from previous losses to profitability [1]

Group 1 - Liou Co., Ltd. announced that its stock will resume trading on January 21, 2026, after completing an internal review regarding stock price fluctuations during its suspension period [1] - The company is advancing AI-related business applications, but these currently do not significantly impact overall revenue or financial performance [1] - The main business segments of Liou Co., Ltd. include pump and system business and digital marketing, with no major changes reported [1] Group 2 - Kangxin New Materials plans to acquire 51% of Wuxi Yubang Semiconductor for 392 million yuan, marking a strategic shift towards the semiconductor industry [2] - The acquisition will allow Kangxin to diversify its business and enhance its profitability and risk resistance [2] - Yubang Semiconductor specializes in integrated circuit manufacturing and provides comprehensive service solutions [2] Group 3 - ST Saiwei expects a negative net asset value by the end of 2025, which may lead to a delisting risk warning for its stock [3] - The company forecasts a net loss of 720 million to 1.02 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025 [3] Group 4 - Baili Tianheng's drug application for iza-bren, a first-in-class EGFR×HER3 dual antibody ADC for treating recurrent or metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, has been accepted for priority review [4] - The drug is currently undergoing over 40 clinical trials in China and the U.S. for various tumor types [4] - Seven indications for iza-bren have been included in the breakthrough therapy list by the CDE, with two also receiving priority review status [4] Group 5 - Kailong High-Tech is planning to acquire control of Shenzhen Jinwangda Electromechanical Co., Ltd., with stock suspension effective from January 21, 2026 [5] - The transaction is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring, with details to be disclosed during the suspension period [5] Group 6 - Hikvision reported a net profit of 14.188 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [6] - Tonghuashun anticipates a net profit between 2.735 billion and 3.282 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 50% to 80% compared to the previous year [6] - Tongfu Microelectronics expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.35 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 62.34% to 99.24% year-on-year [6] Group 7 - Yonghui Supermarket expects a net loss of 2.14 billion yuan for 2025 [10] - Guosheng Technology forecasts a net loss between 325 million and 650 million yuan for 2025 [10] - Putailai anticipates a net profit of 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion yuan for 2025, showing a growth of 93.18% to 101.58% year-on-year [10]

Core Viewpoint - As of January 19, the disclosure rate of annual performance forecasts for A-shares is 7.98%, with a peak expected in late January, where the final disclosure rate may reach around 55% [2][5]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - The performance forecasts indicate that companies with significant net profit growth are primarily in sectors such as computing power, new energy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and computers [6][10]. - By January 19, 447 A-share companies have released annual performance forecasts, with 144 companies expecting net profit growth exceeding 50%, mainly in computing power (semiconductors, communication equipment), new energy (batteries, photovoltaics), and chemicals [6][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - As the performance forecasts enter their peak disclosure period, the correlation between stock prices and performance is expected to increase significantly in the latter half of January, with market sentiment returning to rationality [5]. - The market is likely to undergo a structural adjustment based on fundamentals, with previous hot sectors facing performance validation, while some low-performing but high-quality sectors may attract new capital inflows [5]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The sectors with upward revisions in profit forecasts since November include technology (especially in upstream computing hardware and downstream applications like consumer electronics and software), advanced manufacturing (new energy, military, automotive), and cyclical industries (building materials, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel) [12][13]. - The industries with lower performance growth since the last market rally include AI computing power, new energy, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical sectors like steel and glass fiber [14].