格隆汇11月6日｜欧盟委员会对德意志交易所与纳斯达克可能存在的勾结行为展开反垄断调查后，纳斯 达克盘前股价下跌1.7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America reports that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) achieved a net profit of HKD 13.4 billion in the first nine months of this year, representing a year-on-year increase of 45%, surpassing the bank's expectation of 39% [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, HKEX recorded a net profit of HKD 4.9 billion, which is a 56% year-on-year increase and marks a historical high [1] - The bank has raised its profit forecasts for HKEX for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 3% due to expected increases in fee income [1] Target Price and Rating - Bank of America maintains its target price for HKEX at HKD 520 and reiterates a "Buy" rating [1] Growth Projections - The bank anticipates a revenue growth rate of 8% for the years 2026 to 2027, which is lower than the projected 28% growth for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The bank notes that increasing market trading volume from the current level of 150% is likely to be challenging, suggesting that overall market capitalization must rise to drive revenue growth for HKEX [1] Growth Drivers - The primary growth driver for HKEX is expected to come from derivative products, including the expansion of weekly stock options [1] - Recently, HKEX has begun to cover more stocks and introduced zero-day options to attract new investment interest [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America reports that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) achieved a net profit of 13.4 billion HKD in the first nine months of the year, representing a 45% year-on-year increase, surpassing the bank's expectation of 39% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for the third quarter reached 4.9 billion HKD, marking a 56% year-on-year growth and setting a historical record [1] - The bank has raised its profit forecasts for Hong Kong Exchanges for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 3% due to anticipated increases in fee income [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Hong Kong Exchanges remains unchanged at 520 HKD, with a reiterated "Buy" rating [1] Growth Projections - Expected line growth for 2026 to 2027 is projected at 8%, which is lower than the 28% forecast for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The bank notes that further increasing market trading volume from the current level of 150% is challenging, indicating that unless overall market capitalization rises, trading volume alone will not be sufficient to drive revenue for Hong Kong Exchanges [1] Growth Drivers - The primary growth driver is anticipated to come from derivatives, including the expansion of the current weekly stock options [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges has recently begun to cover more stocks and zero-day options to attract new investment interest [1]

Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached HKD 48.1 trillion by the end of October 2025, a 37% increase from HKD 35.2 trillion in the same period last year [1] - The average daily trading amount in October 2025 was HKD 274.9 billion, up 8% from HKD 255 billion in October 2024 [1] - The average daily trading amount for the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 258.2 billion, a significant increase of 102% compared to HKD 127.8 billion in the same period last year [1] Derivative Products Market - The average daily trading volume of futures and options for the first ten months of 2025 was 1,696,752 contracts, a 7% increase from 1,582,570 contracts in the same period last year [2] - The average daily trading volume of stock index futures was 568,701 contracts during the first ten months of 2025 [2] Stock Options and Futures - The average daily trading volume of stock index options was 115,461 contracts for the first ten months of 2025 [3] - The average daily trading volume of stock options increased by 22% to 896,891 contracts compared to 733,117 contracts in the same period last year [3] - The average daily trading volume of stock futures was 8,538 contracts for the first ten months of 2025 [4] Currency Futures - The average daily trading volume of Renminbi currency futures increased by 20% to 107,126 contracts compared to 89,600 contracts in the same period last year [4] Historical Records - On October 2, 2025, the weekly stock options trading volume reached a historical high of 312,545 contracts [4] - On October 27, 2025, the trading volume of Hang Seng Tech Index futures options hit a historical high of 64,982 contracts [5] IPO and Fundraising - There were 81 new listings in the first ten months of 2025, a 50% increase from 54 new listings in the same period last year [1] - The total amount raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) in the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 216 billion, a 209% increase from HKD 70 billion in the same period last year [1] - The total fundraising amount for the first ten months of 2025 reached HKD 507 billion, up 228% from HKD 154.8 billion in the same period last year [1]

Core Insights - The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reached HKD 48.1 trillion by the end of October 2025, representing a 37% increase compared to HKD 35.2 trillion in the same period last year [1] - The average daily trading volume for October 2025 was HKD 2,749 billion, an 8% increase from HKD 2,550 billion in October 2024 [1] - The average daily trading volume for the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 2,582 billion, a significant 102% increase from HKD 1,278 billion in the same period last year [2] Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume for derivative warrants in the first ten months of 2025 was HKD 80 billion, up 60% from HKD 50 billion in the previous year [2] - The average daily trading volume for bull and bear certificates was HKD 104 billion, a 60% increase from HKD 65 billion year-on-year [2] - The average daily trading volume for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was HKD 343 billion, reflecting a 127% increase from HKD 151 billion in the same period last year [2] New Listings and Fundraising - There were 81 new listings in the first ten months of 2025, a 50% increase compared to 54 new listings in the same period last year [2] - The total amount raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) was HKD 2,160 billion, a remarkable 209% increase from HKD 700 billion year-on-year [2] - The total fundraising amount for the first ten months of 2025 reached HKD 5,070 billion, up 228% from HKD 1,548 billion in the previous year [3] Derivative Market Performance - The average daily trading volume for futures and options in the first ten months of 2025 was 1,696,752 contracts, a 7% increase from 1,582,570 contracts in the same period last year [4] - The average daily trading volume for stock index futures was 568,701 contracts [5] - The average daily trading volume for stock options was 896,891 contracts, up 22% from 733,117 contracts year-on-year [6] Historical Records - On October 2, 2025, the weekly trading volume for stock options reached a historical high of 312,545 contracts [7] - On October 27, 2025, the trading volume for Hang Seng Tech Index futures options hit a record high of 64,982 contracts [8]

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and is optimistic about the deepening of mutual market access and the appreciation of the Renminbi, raising the forecast for 2025 net profit to HKD 18 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, HKEX reported revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 21.85 billion and HKD 13.42 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 36.6% and 44.8% respectively [1] - In Q3 2025, HKEX achieved revenue and net profit of HKD 7.78 billion and HKD 4.90 billion, with year-on-year increases of 44.7% and 55.8%, and quarter-on-quarter increases of 8% and 10% [1] - Q3 net profit reached a historical high, slightly exceeding previous expectations [1] Group 2: Market Activity - The Hong Kong cash market achieved record trading volumes, with an average daily turnover (ADT) of approximately HKD 256.4 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 126.3% [2] - In Q3 2025, the ADT reached approximately HKD 286.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 142.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [2] - The Southbound and Northbound ADT reached HKD 125.9 billion and RMB 206.4 billion respectively, with year-on-year increases of 284.9% and 143.5% [2] Group 3: IPO and Derivatives Market - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Hong Kong market saw 69 new IPOs, raising a total of HKD 188.3 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 238.7% [2] - As of the end of October, the total IPO fundraising amount exceeded USD 26 billion, ranking first globally [2] - The average daily trading volume of derivatives and LME continued to grow, with average daily contract numbers and commodity ADV increasing by 11% and 4% year-on-year respectively [2] Group 4: Investment Income - Margin investment income growth is a key support for investment income, with margin scale increasing by 47% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company fully redeemed its external portfolio in Q2 2025 to raise funds for headquarters property, leading to a 39% year-on-year decline in external portfolio income for Q1-Q3 2025 [2] - The average overnight HIBOR in October has rebounded to 2.8% from a low of 0.02% at the end of June, but may still show volatility due to potential Fed rate cuts and the impact of external portfolio redemption on annual investment income [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan raises the profit forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) and maintains a "buy" rating, citing strong trading activity in the Hong Kong stock market and expectations for continued market engagement due to the return of quality Chinese assets and the extension of cross-border connectivity to IPOs [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025 (9M25), Hong Kong Exchanges reported total revenue of HKD 21.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37%, with main revenue at HKD 20.44 billion, up 41% [2]. - Net profit for 9M25 reached HKD 13.42 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45% [2]. - In the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), main revenue was HKD 7.48 billion, up 54% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was HKD 4.90 billion, increasing by 56% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue sources for 9M25 include: trading fees at HKD 7.83 billion (39%), clearing and settlement fees at HKD 5.27 billion (26%), investment income at HKD 3.89 billion (19%), listing fees at HKD 1.27 billion (6%), and market data fees at HKD 0.87 billion (4%) [3]. - Year-on-year growth rates for various fees include: trading fees +57%, clearing and settlement fees +66%, listing fees +17%, and market data fees +8% [3]. Trading Activity - The average daily turnover (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks in 9M25 was HKD 238.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 132%, with 3Q25 ADT reaching a record high of HKD 267.9 billion, up 150% year-on-year [3]. - Southbound ADT for 9M25 was HKD 125.9 billion, up 229%, while northbound ADT was RMB 206.4 billion, up 67% [3]. IPO Market - In 9M25, the Hong Kong IPO market raised HKD 188.3 billion, three times the amount raised in the same period last year, with 69 new IPOs [5]. - As of the end of 3Q25, there were 297 IPO applications in process, compared to 84 at the end of 2024 [5]. Investment Income - Investment income for 3Q25 was HKD 1.02 billion, down 16% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter, contributing 21% to net profit [6]. - The decline in investment income was attributed to reduced external fund composition and narrowed exchange rate gains [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in ADT-related businesses, indicating potential for valuation uplift. The company's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached HKD 218.5 billion and HKD 134.2 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 37% and 45% [5][6] - The report anticipates continued high growth in the company's fundamentals, driven by a recovery in IPO activities and sustained inflows of southbound capital, with a forecasted increase in ADT for 2025-2027 [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, trading, settlement, listing, custody, data, and other investment income grew by 57%, 66%, 16%, 25%, 8%, 10%, and 4% year-on-year, respectively. The core driver of revenue growth is the significant increase in trading and settlement fees directly linked to ADT [5][6] - The company has revised its ADT assumptions for 2025-2027 to HKD 2,580 billion, HKD 2,620 billion, and HKD 2,700 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 96%, 2%, and 3% [5][6] Market Outlook - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks is experiencing high demand, with 69 new listings in Q1-Q3 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 1,883 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [7] - The report notes that the trading volume is expected to remain active due to the influx of quality assets from Chinese concept stocks returning to Hong Kong and the wave of A-share listings in Hong Kong [7] Valuation and Dividend - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.0%, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%. The report suggests that a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive foreign capital back into the Hong Kong market, benefiting the exchange [8] - The current PE ratio is 31.2, which is at the 22nd percentile of the past ten years, indicating room for valuation improvement [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Open Source Securities indicates that the combination of the AtoH wave and the return of Chinese concept stocks is driving long-term asset expansion in the Hong Kong stock market, leading to sustained net inflows of southbound funds and active trading volumes in the market. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to benefit from the anticipated foreign capital inflow due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, maintaining a high level of business performance and a "buy" rating for the stock [1]. Group 1 - The active spot ADT is driving significant increases in trading and settlement revenues, with trading fees and system usage fees reaching HKD 7.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%, including spot/derivatives/commodity revenues of HKD 4.7 billion/HKD 2.0 billion/HKD 1.1 billion, which are year-on-year increases of 116%/15%/6% [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a high level of activity, with 69 new listings in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53%, and total fundraising amounting to HKD 188.3 billion, more than three times that of the same period in 2024 [2]. - The report highlights that the trading volume increase indirectly boosts custodial, trustee, and agent service fees, as well as market data fees, which have seen year-on-year increases of 25% and 8%, respectively [2]. Group 2 - The investment yield of HKEX has decreased, with a projected dividend yield of 3.0% for 2025, indicating potential for valuation improvement. The net investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 is HKD 3.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% [3]. - The expected dividend yield for 2025, assuming a constant payout ratio of 90%, is 3.0%, while the current yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is 4.10%. The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive foreign capital back into the Hong Kong stock market [3]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the company is 31.2 times, which is at the 22nd percentile of the past ten years, with a dynamic PE of 30.2 times, indicating potential for valuation enhancement [3].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered the target price for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) by 3% from HKD 485 to HKD 471, reflecting the latest outlook on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - UBS has raised the average daily turnover forecast for FY2025 from HKD 250 billion to HKD 259 billion, considering market activity since Q4 [1] - The performance for Q3 2025 met expectations, with revenue increasing by 45% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 3% [1] - Net profit for Q3 2025 rose by 56% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 4% [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - As the company enters Q4, it faces tougher year-on-year comparisons due to a more challenging base [1]