以下文章来源于正心泰山 ，作者宋锡滨 正心泰山 . 新材料产业、技术创新、认知相关、人生点悟等知识和见解。 【 新材料对产业的贡献率 】 通过对第4个课题的研究发现， 新材料对各个产业的贡献率可以拆解成新材料自身贡献率 （实部） 和交叉贡献率 （虚部） ，实部+虚部的耦合作用 最终实现新材料对 各个产业 贡献率的综合分析和计算 （ 新材料 对 各个产业 贡献率通过 技术、产业、需求、政策、资源、环境、社会、安全 八大维度融合影响，这种影 响我们把它们定义为自身贡献率，也被称为实部，这方面的影响在后面会有详细的阐述；但除了自身贡献率以外，其实有时同一种材料对各个产业的细分领域都有支撑，而各个新材料有时 对同一个产业 的细分领域 又有影响，这就造成了很多交叉影响， 这种交叉影响我们把它们定义为交叉贡献率，而交叉贡献率进行维度拆解，就与自身的热力图和动力图直接相关，与各个 产业 细分领域的 热力图和动力图间接相关，所以通过对各个产业 细分领域的 热力和动力的底层逻辑关联，以新材料为核心，进行 热力图与动力图的耦合机制就能够有效的反映交叉贡献 率，而交叉贡献率就是贡献率最关键的修正因子，也被称为虚部。所以上一篇我要着 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Hong Kong Consumer Electronics Industry Industry Overview - The Hong Kong consumer electronics sector has recently experienced significant adjustments due to market fluctuations and underperformance of certain high-expectation businesses. This volatility is expected to continue for about a month. [3] Company Performance and Projections Sunny Optical Technology - **2024 Performance**: Sunny Optical achieved a sales revenue of 38.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%. Net profit reached 2.7 billion yuan, up 146.4%, exceeding market expectations. Revenue from mobile, automotive, and MR sectors grew by 20%, 14%, and 38% respectively, indicating strong recovery momentum. [3][5] - **2025 Guidance**: The company targets a gross margin of 8-10% for mobile modules and anticipates a nearly 50% increase in automotive lens shipments to approximately 3 billion units. The XR business is expected to see slight growth, with significant long-term potential. [3][5] BYD Electronics - **2024 Performance**: BYD Electronics reported revenue of 177.3 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 12.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase. Net profit grew approximately 6% to 24.1 billion yuan. Despite lower-than-expected profits in Q4 due to R&D expenses, the long-term profit potential remains strong. [3][6] - **Future Growth Areas**: Key growth drivers include collaboration with Jabil, automotive and autonomous driving sectors, and new robotics and server businesses. The partnership with Jabil has led to a 20% decline in unit prices due to material changes, but increased design complexity has improved market share. [3][6] Strategic Developments - **Sunny Optical**: The company is expanding its AI-related capabilities and international collaborations, with a focus on emerging technologies like automotive lenses and smart glasses. The valuation is expected to return to 20-25 times earnings as the market stabilizes. [3][7] - **BYD Electronics**: The company is enhancing its competitiveness in new product development and autonomous driving through R&D amortization and organizational optimization. The collaboration with its parent company and reduced financial costs are expected to further boost profitability. [3][7] Market Trends and Expectations - The consumer electronics sector is projected to follow a steady development trajectory, with stock prices likely to rise. Sunny Optical's valuation is anticipated to recover, while BYD Electronics is expected to benefit from growth across multiple sectors, leading to improved market sentiment. [3][4] Additional Insights - **Material Changes Impact**: Jabil's material changes are expected to stabilize market share, with a return to high-end titanium alloy materials anticipated. [3][8] - **Automotive Sector Growth**: BYD Electronics expects a significant increase in automotive shipments, from 700,000 units last year to approximately 1.2 million units this year, with growth in automotive machine supply and autonomous driving assembly. [3][9] - **Robotics and Server Development**: The company is actively producing logistics robots and mechanical arms, with server business expected to grow from 1 billion yuan last year to 3-5 billion yuan this year, aiming for a scale of 10 billion yuan next year. [3][10] Future Performance Outlook - Despite a dip in Q4 profits, BYD Electronics is poised for significant growth in 2023 and 2024, driven by advancements in mobile, autonomous driving, and emerging server and robotics sectors. The current P/E ratio is below 20 times, indicating potential for market recovery as major clients and autonomous driving projects ramp up. [3][11]