证券研究报告 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 雅迪控股(1585.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 骆峥 轻工制造行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱： luozheng1@cindasc.com 邓健全 汽车行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525010002 邮 箱： dengjianquan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 雅迪控股：发布正面盈利预告，动销靓丽、产 品结构持续优化 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 18 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary]正面盈利公告。公司基于截至 2025 年 5 月 31 日止 5 个月 初步经营情况，预计 2025H ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - Lehua Entertainment (02306) surged over 24% due to strong market performance of its toy IP "WUKUKU," with multiple new products setting sales records and the theme song exceeding 1 billion views [1] - United Energy Group (00467) rose over 7% after signing a 15-year production increase contract with Uzbekistan's UNG, involving 57.8 billion cubic meters of oil and gas production, with an initial investment of $100 million to expand into Central Asia [1] - Smoore International (06969) fell over 3% as shareholder Yiwei Lithium Energy plans to reduce its stake by 3.5% (216 million shares), resulting in a decrease of its holding to 27.23%, no longer being the controlling shareholder [1] - New World Development (00200) dropped over 5% after completing a "2 for 1" rights issue, issuing 758 million shares and raising HKD 771 million, with oversubscription of 13 times [1] - Fourth Paradigm (06682) increased over 7% after launching AI solutions for the manufacturing industry, covering production optimization to supply chain intelligence upgrades [1] - Shandong High-Tech Holdings (00412) rose over 4% as Zhongtai Securities highlighted significant synergy between its new energy and digital infrastructure, with a data center PUE value of 1.15, enhancing financial integration [1] - KANAT Optical (02276) increased over 4% due to an explosion in the smart glasses market (e-commerce transactions up 8 times), with Meta collaborating with Oakley to launch AI glasses, positioning the company with leading 3C enterprises [1] Group 2: Other Notable Stocks - Sipai Health (00314) rose over 7% after partnering with Anruijiaer to develop customized insurance, planning to sell 6 pharmacies for 5.89 million to focus on core medical insurance business [2] - SF Express (09699) increased over 5% after raising its delivery service revenue cap for 2025/26 to HKD 12.8 billion / HKD 20.5 billion, with demand growth exceeding expectations [2] - Liufu Group (00590) fell over 3% as it projected a 40% decline in profits for the 2025 fiscal year, primarily due to gold hedging losses and high base effects from acquisition gains [2] - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) rose over 4% after announcing Yao Annan as the "Cultural Heritage Ambassador" for liquor, leveraging Huawei-related topics to boost brand visibility [2] - Ideal Auto-W (02015) dropped over 4% as Meituan's Wang Xing sold 5.73 million shares for HKD 600 million, reducing his stake to 20.61% [2] - Health Road (02587) surged over 7% as its liver disease AI management platform was selected for Beijing's digital medical verification program, supporting WHO's "2030 Hepatitis Elimination" goal [2] - Gilead Sciences-B (01672) rose over 5% after its psoriasis oral drug ASC50 completed the first dosing in Phase I clinical trials in the U.S., targeting the IL-17 pathway [2] - China Silver Group (00815) increased over 10% after partnering with Zefeng Gold to acquire a 55% stake in a lead-zinc exploration company, gaining exploration rights over 50.8 square kilometers in Tibet [2] Group 3: U.S. Stocks - Verve Therapeutics (VERV.US) skyrocketed over 80% as Eli Lilly prepares to acquire the gene-editing company for up to $1.3 billion, with $1 billion as an upfront payment and $300 million contingent on specific clinical milestones [4] - Solar energy stocks plummeted, with Sunrun (RUN.US) down over 40%, Solaredge Technologies (SEDG.US) down over 41%, and First Solar (FSLR.US) down over 22%, following a Republican proposal in the U.S. Senate to terminate wind and solar tax credits by 2028, raising concerns about the industry's outlook [4] - Reddit (RDDT.US) rose over 6% after launching the AI advertising tool Reddit Insights, enhancing ad targeting through real-time user trend analysis [4] - Bitcoin-related stocks fell, with CleanSpark (CLSK.US) down over 7% and Riot Platforms (RIOT.US) down over 5%, as Bitcoin prices dropped nearly 2% to $105,580 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and high leverage positions in the derivatives market [4] - AMD (AMD.US) continued to rise 0.56% after officially launching the Zen5 architecture Ryzen Threadripper processors, covering the workstation and desktop markets, with a market share close to 50% in China for Q1, although there are concerns about its cost-performance ratio [5] - Brain Regen Technologies (RGC.US) surged over 30% after announcing a 38-for-1 stock split, coupled with FDA clinical trial approval news, although its actual business has no revenue and a very small float, indicating significant retail speculation [6] - Jabil (JBL.US) rose over 8%, reaching a new all-time high of $202.5, with Q3 revenue increasing 15% year-on-year to $7.83 billion, raising its full-year revenue forecast to $29 billion and planning a $500 million investment to support AI data center infrastructure [6] - Niu Technologies (NIU.US) increased over 11% after launching its new NX Play electric motorcycle on Douyin, integrating a smart riding system to enhance user experience [6] - T-Mobile US (TMUS.US) fell nearly 4% as SoftBank sold 21.5 million shares at $224 each, a 3% discount, triggering market sell-off [6] - The pharmaceutical sector saw widespread declines, with Eli Lilly (LLY.US) down over 2% and Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) down over 3%, as concerns grew over the potential impact of the U.S. Senate tax bill on the industry, coupled with profit-taking ahead of some companies' earnings reports [6] - The gold sector declined, with Gold Fields (GFI.US) down over 2.1%, and spot gold fell 0.27% to $3,375.53, as easing tensions in the Middle East reduced safe-haven demand, alongside Citigroup's bearish long-term gold price forecast [7]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 South China International Electric Vehicle and Parts Exhibition will be held from June 13 to 15 in Guangzhou, showcasing the latest innovations and products from leading companies in the electric vehicle industry, with Aima Technology being a key participant [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The South China Electric Vehicle Exhibition has become a significant platform for the two-wheeler industry, featuring numerous new products and technologies, and attracting a professional audience [3]. - Aima Technology, recognized as a leading brand in the electric two-wheeler sector, will showcase its innovative products, including the Aima Metaverse series and A7 series, at booth 1A03 [1][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Aima Technology reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 6.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 605 million yuan, up 25.12% [7]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities also saw significant growth, amounting to 1.302 billion yuan, reflecting a 91.14% increase [7]. Group 3: Product Innovation and User Focus - Aima Technology emphasizes a user-centric approach, continuously investing in technology to create products that resonate with consumer needs [10]. - The company’s models, such as the Aima Metaverse Play and A7 series, have won prestigious design awards, highlighting their commitment to innovation and market alignment [10]. - Aima's product lineup targets various consumer segments, including young women and families, showcasing a deep understanding of emotional and practical consumer needs [13]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The upcoming implementation of new national standards on September 1 is expected to reshape the industry’s policy environment and competitive landscape, driving technological innovation and enhancing user experience [13]. - The 2025 South China Electric Vehicle Exhibition will serve as a vital platform for Aima Technology and other leading brands to demonstrate their technological prowess and solidify their market leadership [13].

Core Viewpoint - Yadea Holdings (01585.HK) is facing significant challenges, including regulatory penalties and declining financial performance, amidst increasing competition in the electric two-wheeler market [1][6][11]. Regulatory Issues - Yadea Industrial Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Yadea Holdings, received an administrative penalty of RMB 30,000 from the Tianjin Emergency Management Bureau for product quality issues [2][3]. - In June 2024, Yadea was listed among brands with non-compliant electric bicycle products, highlighting ongoing quality control challenges [2][5]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, Yadea reported revenues of RMB 28.236 billion, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.272 billion, down 51.8% [6][9]. - The decline in performance is attributed to heightened public concern over battery safety following a fire incident in Nanjing, which reduced demand for electric two-wheelers [8][10]. Market Competition - Yadea's market position is under pressure from competitors like Ninebot and Aima Technology, which have reported significant revenue and profit growth [11]. - Aima Technology surpassed Yadea in net profit for the first time, indicating a shift in market leadership [11]. Product Strategy and Market Trends - Yadea has attempted to diversify its product offerings, including high-end brands and models targeting female consumers, but has not seen a corresponding increase in average selling prices [12][14]. - In 2024, the average price of Yadea's electric two-wheelers remained relatively stable at approximately RMB 1,487, with total sales volume decreasing by 21.2% to 13 million units [14][16]. Future Outlook - Yadea plans to innovate and adapt to new national standards for electric two-wheelers, aiming to stabilize the market and regain growth [16]. - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of "sodium batteries + battery swapping" to enhance its competitive edge in the evolving electric mobility landscape [16].

展望未来，通勤场景（占比约50%）与娱乐场景（30%）构成电动两轮客户的核心基本盘，其中：1） 通勤场景以刚需为主导，对产品性价比、续航能力及渠道便利性高度敏感，我们预计雅迪、爱玛凭借规 模化制造降本、下沉渠道网络及长续航技术构筑护城河，形成绝对主导地位；2）娱乐场景更注重品牌 调性、外观设计及智能化体验，用户愿为个性化支付溢价，新势力品牌例如九号等公司具备先发优势， 而雅迪、爱玛等传统车企亦通过车型、营销手段快速迭代，缩小差距。 公司经历前期激进扩张与2024 年深度调整，销量、盈利能力均有望快速修复。1）渠道侧面，公司2024 年受新国标影响，老车型清仓去库，致使渠道压力较大。2025 年以来，随着新国标落地、以旧换新的 推进，我们预计公司终端渠道已恢复至健康状态，叠加摩登等新产品序列上市，后续销量增长潜力有望 恢复。2）与销量趋势一致，随着行业价格战缓解与公司规模效应的重新体现，单车盈利能力有望快速 修复。3）子公司华宇电池凭借"24 个月真换新"的技术品牌，外供需求旺盛，销量有望快速增长，并进 一步增厚公司业绩。 盈利预测与估值： 预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为29.3/35.5/41 ...

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 06 10 年 月 日 雅迪控股（01585.HK） 政策驱动景气度上行，龙头盈利修复可期 以旧换新叠加新国标落地，行业需求有望重回快速增长区间。预计行业 2025/2026 年销量 5600/6175 万辆，同比+12%/+10%，未来行业稳态需 求接近 6500 万辆。主要受益于：1）以旧换新政策补贴力度大，截至 2025 年 4 月 8 日全国电动自行车售旧、换新各 334.1 万辆，平均单车补贴金额 688 元，据中国自行车协会监测，行业一季度产量同比+25%，刺激效果 显著，后续换购需求有望加速释放。2）2024 版新国标将于今年 9 月实施， 新增防火、防电池篡改的要求，降低铅酸电池重量要求，提高行业准入门 槛，预计行业 Q2-Q3 老国标车型需求有望维持旺盛。 行业格局：头部车企优势明显，未来市场份额有望稳中有升。龙头公司雅 迪/爱玛在产品价格带、渠道方面优势明显，市占率大幅领先同行，2024 年分别销售 1302/1070 万台，对应市占率 26%/21%，合计市占率达 47%。 展望未来，通勤场景（占比约 50%）与娱乐场景 ...

2025第五届起点两轮车换电大会 活动主题： 聚焦新技术 拓展新市场 主办单位： 起点锂电、起点钠电、起点两轮车及换电 三、大会议程 及轻型动力电池技术高峰论坛 聚焦新技术 拓展新市场 时间： 7月10-11日 地址： 无锡红豆杉庄 一、活动背景及亮点 二、活动组织架构 活动名称： 2025第五届起点两轮车换电大会及轻型动力电池技术高峰论坛 起点研究院（SPIR）权威发布《2025中国两轮车换电及电池TOP排行榜及行业白皮书》， 覆盖智能电动两轮车出货量TOP10、两轮车换电运营商TOP10、两轮车电池BMS出货量 TOP5，两轮车换电柜出货量TOP5、中国电动两轮车用锂电池出货量TOP10、中国电动两轮 车用钠电池出货量TOP5等细分权威榜单，为行业树立标杆，为投资及采购决策者提供参 考； 政策支持、即时配送需求及技术升级等主要驱动力影响下，全球两轮车换电市场高速增长， 基于产业链整合优势，中国企业将迎来新一轮布局风口，电池安全、下沉市场覆盖及成本优 化等挑战急需解决； 上下游企业加速研发高安全、高倍率、高能量密度、长循环寿命、低成本、高低温等细分性 能优势电池产品； 海内外轻型动力及中小储能市场高速增长， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Luyuan Group Holdings (2451.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.41, indicating a potential upside of 61.2% from the current price of HKD 7.99 [2][4]. Core Insights - Luyuan Group is a pioneer in the electric two-wheeler industry, focusing on technological innovation and industry transformation since its establishment in 1997. The company has introduced significant technologies such as liquid-cooled motors and digital battery systems, enhancing product durability and range [4][7]. - The transition to new national standards is expected to stimulate demand for electric two-wheelers, with a projected recovery in sales starting in 2025 due to government incentives for trade-ins [4][25]. - The company is strategically repositioning itself as a leader in "all-scenario light mobility solutions," aiming to transform from a traditional manufacturer to a mobility service provider, with a focus on high-end markets and an integrated service ecosystem [4][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Luyuan Group are as follows: - 2024: CNY 50.72 billion (YoY -0.22%) - 2025: CNY 60.2 billion (YoY +18.69%) - 2026: CNY 73.2 billion (YoY +21.59%) - 2027: CNY 88.5 billion (YoY +20.90%) - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: CNY 1.16 billion (YoY -20.29%) - 2025: CNY 1.75 billion (YoY +50.86%) - 2026: CNY 3.23 billion (YoY +84.57%) - 2027: CNY 4.58 billion (YoY +41.80%) - The report indicates a significant improvement in earnings per share (EPS) from CNY 0.29 in 2024 to CNY 1.07 in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 25.72 to 6.68 over the same period [3][4][19]. Industry Overview - The electric two-wheeler market in China is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.32% from 2019 to 2024, despite a decline in 2024 due to weak consumer demand and industry adjustments [4][25]. - The market is characterized by a shift from price competition to quality competition, with leading brands focusing on technological advancements and differentiated offerings to enhance product value [31][34]. - The introduction of new national standards in 2024 is expected to further elevate product quality and safety, driving the industry towards higher standards and compliance [40][41]. Technological Advancements - Luyuan Group has developed core technologies such as liquid-cooled motors and digital battery systems, which significantly improve product performance and longevity, addressing key industry challenges [47][48]. - The company is also enhancing its smart technology offerings, integrating features like real-time monitoring and AI-driven maintenance to improve user experience and safety [51][52]. Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the LYVA brand marks Luyuan's entry into the high-end market, with a focus on premium electric two-wheelers designed for various high-end scenarios [61]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new manufacturing bases, aiming to meet future demand and enhance market share [53]. Sales and Distribution - Luyuan has established a comprehensive sales network with over 12,800 retail stores across China, supported by a robust online sales strategy that integrates e-commerce with traditional retail [54][57].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Luyuan Group Holdings (2451.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.41, indicating a potential upside of 61.2% from the current price of HKD 7.99 [2][4]. Core Insights - Luyuan Group is a pioneer in the electric two-wheeler industry, leveraging technological innovation to lead market development. The company has introduced significant advancements such as liquid-cooled motors and digital battery technology, enhancing product durability and range [4][7]. - The transition to new national standards is expected to stimulate demand for electric two-wheelers, with a projected recovery in sales starting in 2025 due to government incentives for trade-ins [4][25]. - The company's strategic shift towards high-end markets and the establishment of a comprehensive mobility ecosystem is anticipated to drive growth and improve profitability [4][61]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Luyuan Group are as follows: - 2024: CNY 50.72 billion (YoY -0.22%) - 2025: CNY 60.2 billion (YoY +18.69%) - 2026: CNY 73.2 billion (YoY +21.59%) - 2027: CNY 88.5 billion (YoY +20.90%) [3][4] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: CNY 1.16 billion (YoY -20.29%) - 2025: CNY 1.75 billion (YoY +50.86%) - 2026: CNY 3.23 billion (YoY +84.57%) - 2027: CNY 4.58 billion (YoY +41.80%) [3][4]. Industry Overview - The electric two-wheeler market in China is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.32% from 2019 to 2024, despite a decline in 2024 due to weak consumer demand and industry adjustments [4][25]. - The market is characterized by a significant shift from price competition to quality competition, with leading brands focusing on technological advancements and product differentiation [31][34]. - The introduction of new national standards in 2025 is expected to enhance product quality and safety, further driving the industry's evolution [40][41].

5月26日，"非比寻长·2025雅迪冠能S系列发布会"在浙江宁波举行。此次雅迪发布的冠能S系列新品不仅承袭冠能系列的长续航优势，更精准覆盖用户全场景 骑行的长续航需求，并率先行业提出"冠能S长续航电池耐用保三年"品质承诺。据统计，截至2025年4月，雅迪冠能系列累计销量成功突破2000万台，再创行 业单系列销量纪录。 凭借权威机构弗若斯特沙利文认证的"中国长续航电动两轮车领导者"称号，成为全球用户信赖的长续航出行解决方案。韩义西在采访中强调："冠能S系列的 升级，是从'数字续航'到'场景续航'的跨越，我们通过差异化技术方案，精准解决不同场景下的续航痛点。" 雅迪冠能S系列的核心技术成为关注焦点。韩义西介绍称，TTFAR常青增程系统搭载于白鲨90等车型，通过常青藤二代石墨烯铅酸电池、TTFAR Turbo充电 器及全域控制器的三电升级，实现"新车跑得远，旧车依旧远"。其中，电池采用8大材料纯度升级与浆料真空雾化专利技术，内部龙骨板栅结构厚度提升 20%，抗衰减性与耐用性显著增强，配合三年真质保承诺，彻底解决用户续航焦虑。 TTFAR高能锂电系统应用于白鲨100，通过优化部件集成减少能量损耗，平衡强劲动力与长续航 ...