Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The egg futures market experienced intensified long - short battles last week. High egg - laying hen存栏 and adverse weather conditions put significant pressure on egg prices, but an increase in the number of culled chickens and rising procurement demand for cold - storage eggs provided support. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate. With the boost of the consumption peak season in the third quarter, egg prices are expected to have a phased recovery, but the annual price peak may be lower than that of last year [8][59]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1. Trend Review - **Futures Price**: The main contract of egg futures, JD2508, fluctuated last week. As of last Friday, it closed at 3,582 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a total trading volume of 125,885 lots, an open interest of 184,136 lots, and a weekly increase of 1.1% [5][12]. - **Spot Price**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last week was 2.70 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 6.25%; in the main consuming areas, it was 2.76 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 2.47%. The price in the main producing areas first declined and then stabilized, while that in the main consuming areas showed a weakening trend [7][16]. - **Chick Price**: The chick price was generally weak last week. The average price of commercial - generation chicks in key national regions was 3.88 yuan per chick, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan per chick, a decrease of 0.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.08%. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was about 60% - 80% [22]. - **Old Hen Price**: The price of old hens fluctuated strongly last week. The average price of old hens in representative markets in key producing areas was 4.65 yuan per catty, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.65% [26]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Egg - laying Hen存栏**: As of June, the national egg - laying hen存栏 was about 1.27 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.75%. The supply was abundant, and the contradiction between supply and demand would be further intensified [31]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The shipping volume in representative markets in the main producing areas decreased by 0.63% week - on - week and 17.52% year - on - year. It first weakened and then increased [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: The total slaughter volume of old hens last week was 529,200, a week - on - week decrease of 1.54%. The average slaughter age was 503 days, and the slaughter volume decreased with a slightly earlier slaughter age [41]. - **Demand Side** - **Arrival Volume in Consuming Areas**: As of last Thursday, the arrival volume in the Beijing market increased by 2.06% week - on - week, while that in the Guangdong market decreased by 20.03% week - on - week. The overall downstream consumption demand was average [45]. - **Sales Volume in Consuming Areas**: The egg sales volume last week was 5,928.27 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.56% [49]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory in the production link last week was 1.23 days, a week - on - week increase of 17.14%; the inventory in the circulation link was 1.52 days, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%. The overall inventory increased slightly [53]. - **Egg - laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit**: The egg - laying hen breeding cost last week was 3.55 yuan per catty, remaining flat week - on - week. The breeding profit was - 0.85 yuan per catty, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 25.00%. The egg - laying hen breeding loss further expanded [57]. 3.3. Market Outlook The egg futures market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. With the boost of the third - quarter consumption peak season, egg prices are expected to have a phased recovery, but the annual price peak may be lower than that of last year [59]. 3.4. Operation Strategy Due to the short - term market uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. Continuously monitor the signals of capacity reduction and demand recovery in July [10][60].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货维位偏弱运行 盘面有止跌回暖倾向 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：轻仓试多远月合约。 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收涨，08合约收盘价为3582元/500千克，较前一周+39元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：鸡蛋步入季节性需求淡季，且目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新开产压力 较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足。同时，受梅雨季节影响，高温高湿气候下鸡蛋存储成本增加，下游经 销商采购谨慎，蛋价持续处于同期偏低水平，养殖端也持续处于亏损状态。不过，价格来到相对 低位后，老鸡淘汰进程有所加快，降低存栏预期。盘面来看，期价跌至低估值区域后，近来有止 跌回暖倾向。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 图2、大商所鸡蛋指数期货前二十名持仓变化 3 来 ...

智通财经7月2日电，记者从农业农村部了解到的最新数据显示，6月份全国鸡蛋价格环比和同比均有下 降。数据显示，6月份北京新发地市场鸡蛋批发平均价为每公斤5.93元，比5月份下降11.23%，比去年同 期下降26.43%。记者了解到，由于近期是鸡蛋的消费淡季，再加上学校暑期放假，对鸡蛋需求量会进 一步下降，在鸡蛋主产区山东，鸡蛋的出厂价和销售量都有下降。 ( 央视财经) 北京新发地市场鸡蛋批发价大降超25% 鸡蛋批发均价每公斤不到6元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "sterile eggs" in e-commerce platforms has led to consumer confusion regarding their safety and authenticity, prompting a need for clarity on the actual quality and production processes of these products [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Insights - "Sterile eggs" are misleadingly marketed; they are actually a new category of high-quality eggs known as "raw-eating eggs," which are designed to be free of Salmonella [1][2]. - The production of "raw-eating eggs" involves a rigorous process, including multiple rounds of Salmonella testing and a controlled environment for the hens, ensuring higher safety standards [2][3]. - The cost of producing a single "raw-eating egg" ranges from 1.4 to 1.8 yuan, while retail prices in supermarkets average around 2.65 yuan, contrasting sharply with online prices as low as 1 yuan [3]. Group 2: Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to pay attention to product labels and the standards being followed when purchasing "raw-eating eggs," favoring reputable brands with strong market presence [4]. - As of 2024, China is projected to produce 35.88 million tons of poultry eggs, solidifying its position as the largest egg producer and consumer globally, with an increasing focus on quality to meet diverse consumer demands [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg supply pressure has been alleviated, and the egg price may bottom out. In the second half of the year, especially during the Mid - Autumn Festival in August and September, the egg price is expected to strengthen. However, the specific increase in egg price depends on whether the number of culled chickens can remain high. If the number of culled chickens remains high, the increase will be relatively large; otherwise, it will be limited. [5][24][40] - For the futures market, the downward space of the futures price is relatively limited as the profit per catty of eggs is in a loss or flat state. The upward space of the August and September contracts in the second half of the year depends on the future number of culled chickens. If the number of culled chickens remains high, the upward space is relatively large; if not, the contracts may fluctuate slightly stronger. [5][42] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In 2025, the spot price of eggs was weak. Due to the high pre - stocking volume, the supply was loose in the first half of the year. Combined with the average feed cost, the egg price was low. It started at 3.1 yuan/jin and dropped to around 2.65 yuan/jin. The futures contracts also showed a weak trend, and the August contract dropped to around 3455. [4][10] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The downward space of the futures price is limited because of the loss or flat profit per catty of eggs. The upward space of the August and September contracts in the second half of the year depends on the future number of culled chickens. [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For the unilateral strategy, consider building long positions in the far - month August and September contracts in mid - to late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. For the arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see. [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the previous market review, the spot price of eggs was weak in 2025. The supply was loose due to high pre - stocking, and the futures contracts also performed weakly. [10] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Spot**: The spot price of eggs trended weakly in the first half of the year. The average price in the main production areas dropped from around 3.2 yuan/jin to around 2.62 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas from 3.38 yuan/jin to 2.84 yuan/jin. The increase in the number of culled chickens recently has alleviated the supply pressure. [11] - **Supply**: In May, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a 7.2% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the laying - hen inventory from June to September 2025 will be approximately 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively. The proportion of large, medium, and small eggs in June was 40.67% (medium - low level in the same period over the years), 42.28% (medium level), and 17.05% (medium - high level) respectively. The egg - laying rate in June was about 90.98%, at a low level in the same period over the years, and is expected to decline with the hot weather. In May, the monthly egg - laying chick hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 4% month - on - month decrease and a 1% year - on - year increase. The current weekly market price of egg - laying chicks is 4.06 yuan/feather, a 0.08 - yuan decrease from the previous month. The number of culled chickens increased in June but was still at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. As of June 19, the average culling age was 509 days, at a medium - high level over the years. [11][13][14] - **Demand**: After the Spring Festival, the demand was okay but declined recently due to the seasonal off - season. As of June 19, the weekly egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7527 tons, at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 20317.1 billion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase, and the catering revenue in May was 457.8 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. [22][24] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, at a low level in the same period over the years, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. [24] - **Cost and Profit**: The feed cost changed little in the first half of the year and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In June, the corn price was 2421 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 2986 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2591 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.85 yuan/jin for eggs. As of June 19, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, at a low level in the same period over the years. On June 20, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, also at a low level in the same period over the years. [31][33] - **Substitutes**: The vegetable price changed little in the first half of the year, and the pork price remained in a low - level shock. As of June 22, the Shouguang vegetable index was 103.73, and as of June 20, the pork price was around 15.72 yuan/kg. The low vegetable and pork prices had a relatively weak substitution demand for eggs. [34] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The current laying - hen inventory is at a high level over the years, but the supply pressure has been alleviated recently. If the market's enthusiasm for culling chickens weakens, the supply side will still face pressure; if the number of culled chickens remains large, the supply pressure will improve. [40] - **Demand**: The short - term demand is average due to the off - season, but in the long - term, the egg price may be boosted by the seasonal peak in the second half of the year. [40] - **Feed Cost**: The comprehensive feed cost per catty of eggs in the first half of 2025 was about 2.8 yuan/jin. The prices of corn and soybean meal changed little, and the feed cost is expected to remain at the current level, providing certain support for the egg spot price. [40] - **Overall Outlook**: In the second half of the year, the egg price is expected to strengthen, especially in August and September. The specific increase depends on the future number of culled chickens. For the futures market, the downward space is limited, and the upward space of the August and September contracts depends on the number of culled chickens. [40][42]

Core Viewpoint - Recent chicken egg prices in China have rebounded after a prolonged decline, with average prices rising to 7.28 yuan/kg as of June 26, 2023, reflecting a 1.82% increase from the previous week [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in egg prices is attributed to low inventory levels and stimulated consumer demand due to lower prices, despite concerns about the sustainability of this rebound due to high temperatures and seasonal factors [1][3]. - As of June 20, average inventory levels in production and circulation were reported at 0.95 days and 1.04 days, respectively, indicating a decline of approximately 10.38% and 10.34% compared to previous periods [3]. - Analysts predict that the supply of laying hens will continue to increase, with a theoretical growth of 0.75% in laying hen inventory expected in July [4][5]. Seasonal Influences - The traditional low season for chicken eggs typically occurs in June, with high temperatures and humidity affecting storage and quality, leading to a generally pessimistic outlook for the market [3][4]. - The end of the plum rain season in mid-July is anticipated to improve storage conditions, potentially leading to a recovery in prices as demand for replenishment increases [6][7]. Price Trends and Forecasts - Historical data suggests that chicken egg prices tend to rise significantly from the low point during the plum rain season to the peak during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with average increases ranging from 25% to 88% [7]. - Current market conditions indicate that while prices may stabilize at low levels in the short term, a significant rebound is expected post-plum rain season, with potential price peaks estimated between 3.8 yuan and 4.1 yuan per jin [7].

期。盘面来看，期价跌至低估值区域后，近来有止跌回暖倾向，可轻仓试多。 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3561 | 10 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -20393 | 2863 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Research Report - Egg Daily Report [2] - Date: June 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the futures market, the near - month 07 contract may maintain a weak performance due to the egg consumption entering the off - season after the rainy season in May, but the downward space is limited. For the far - month contracts, if the chicken culling volume increases in the future, the 8 and 9 - month contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise, but the increase may be limited if the supply is not significantly improved. One can consider building long positions in the 8 and 9 - month contracts when the safety margin is high [10]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - Egg prices: The average price in the main production areas is 2.87 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas is 3 yuan/jin, both remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable, and the egg prices continue to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [6]. - In - production laying hens: In May, the national in - production laying hens inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and 7.2% year - on - year. The estimated inventory from June to September 2025 is 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [7]. - Chicken culling: The egg - laying hen culling volume in the main production areas in the week of June 20 was 19.68 million, a decrease of 4% from the previous week. The average culling age on June 19 was 509 days, a decrease of 3 days from the previous week. The national culling chicken price rose, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.54 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan from the previous trading day [7][9]. - Egg sales: As of the week of June 19, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7,527 tons, a decrease of 8% from the previous week [8]. - Inventory: As of the week of June 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.11 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week [8]. - Profit: As of June 19, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous week. On June 20, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 2. Trading Logic - Near - month 07 contract: Due to the off - season demand after the rainy season, the price may be weak, but the downward space is limited. - Far - month contracts: If the chicken culling volume increases, the 8 and 9 - month contracts may rise, but the increase may be limited if the supply is not improved. One can consider building long positions in the 8 and 9 - month contracts when the safety margin is high [10]. 3. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 - month contracts when the rainy season is about to end in mid - to - late June and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [11]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including egg spot prices in the main production and sales areas, egg - laying hen chick prices, culling chicken prices, egg feed costs, in - production laying hen inventory, futures spreads, and profit trends [13][16][17] etc.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a light - position trial for long positions in eggs [7]. - Currently, eggs are in a seasonal demand off - season. With a high egg - laying hen inventory and new - laying hens from previous replenishments, egg supply is sufficient. The hot and humid weather increases storage costs, making downstream dealers cautious in purchasing. Egg prices are at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end is in a loss state. However, as prices reach a low level, the process of culling old hens has accelerated, reducing inventory expectations. The futures price has shown a tendency to stop falling and recover after reaching a low - valuation area [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Light - position trial for long positions [7]. - Egg market: This week, egg futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the 08 contract was 3618 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 62 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. In the future, due to the seasonal off - season and high inventory, egg prices are under pressure, but the acceleration of old - hen culling may change the supply situation [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The 08 contract of egg futures fluctuated and closed higher. The trading volume was 233,645 lots, an increase of 5,400 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 18,810, and the net short position increased compared to last week [15]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [19]. - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 2932 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 324 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 08 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 686 yuan per ton [25]. - Futures inter - month spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was 73 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [29]. - Related product spot prices: As of June 19, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.29 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.37 yuan per kilogram [35]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of May 31, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 110.89, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. The national new - chick index was 106.78, a month - on - month decrease of 23.00% [41]. - Culling of egg - laying hens: As of May 31, 2025, the national culled egg - laying hen index was 108.68, a month - on - month increase of 12.32%. The national culling age of hens was 506 days [45]. - Feed raw material prices: As of June 19, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2415.69 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2940 yuan per ton [49]. - Feed price and breeding profit: As of June 13, 2025, the breeding profit of egg - laying hens was - 0.55 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.74 yuan per kilogram [55]. - Egg - laying hen chicks and culled hens prices: As of June 13, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 4.1 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.12 yuan per kilogram [57]. - Egg monthly export volume: In April 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,792.51 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.12% (an increase of 1680.12 tons compared to the same period last year) and a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons compared to the previous month [63].

正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格持续下降， 淘鸡日龄持续下降，大小码价差小幅上升，鸡苗价格持 | 偏空 | | | 续下降。 | | | | 近十年统计结果显示，有6次梅雨季现货价格低点出现在7月上旬，3次出现在6月下旬，所以6-7 | | | | 月出现低点的概率较大。通常7-8月现货出现上涨，主要因为梅雨季淘鸡加速、高温天气导致产 | | | | 蛋率下降、中秋节前备货需求增加的影响。但目前淘鸡相对蛋价处于历史同期高位，7月20日入 | | | | 伏之前产蛋率也不会快速下滑，节前备货还未到启动的时候，所以季节性反弹还为时尚早。 | | | 需求 | 本周主销区销量小幅下降，主产区发货量基本持平，流通库存和生产环节库存小幅上升。 | 偏空 | | | 根据气象部门最新预测，今年南方梅雨季节时间长、降雨量大，鸡蛋质量面临较大挑战，或导致 | | | | 今年6月份需求低于往年同期。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润持续走低，明显低于综合成本，处于近4年同期最低水平。 蛋鸡行业经过连 ...