1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the near - month contracts of eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase is relatively limited. The supply in the second half of the year is uncertain. If the egg price in the first half is high, the supply pressure will increase; if the price is low, the supply will decrease significantly. In the second half of the year, it is the peak consumption season, and the spot price is likely to rise, with the increase depending on the supply situation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3104, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3536, down 14; JD09 closed at 3961, down 48 [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread was - 432, up 17; 05 - 09 spread was - 425, up 34; 09 - 01 spread was 857, down 51 [2] - **Price Ratios**: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.36, up 0.00; 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 0.99, down 0.01; 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; 05 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.27, down 0.02; 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.74, down 0.02; 09 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.38, down 0.02 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day. The average price in the main sales areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2][4] - **淘汰鸡 Prices**: The average price of 淘汰鸡 in the main production areas was 4.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7] 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales Areas Prices**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly increased. The prices in the main production areas such as Northeast China, North China, and Central China generally rose. The price of eggs in Beijing's major markets increased by 3 yuan per box [4] - **In - production Laying Hens**: In December, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected [5] - **Chick Hatchlings**: In December, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5] - **Hen Culling**: In the week of December 18, the national main production area's hen culling volume was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week [5] - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, slightly recovering from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6] - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing from the previous week. The weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing from the previous week [6] 3.4 Trading Logic - In the near term, the demand side has improved, and the near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 will ease, and the spot price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival. In the second half of the year, due to the uncertainty of supply and the peak demand season, the spot price is likely to rise, but the increase depends on the supply situation [8] 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Consider building long positions in the far - month contracts at low prices [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a light - position trial of going long on the far - month contracts of eggs [2] 2) Core View - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, near - month contracts may be in a state of wide - range low - level oscillation, while far - month contracts are expected to perform better than near - month ones due to the expected decline in production capacity [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2992 yuan/500 kilograms, with the net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreasing by 7280 hands to - 45397 hands. The egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 459 yuan/500 kilograms, and the futures trading volume (active contract) increases by 113657 hands to 219525 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 [2] Spot Market - The egg spot price is 3.1 yuan/jin, and the basis (spot - futures) is 113 yuan/500 kilograms, down 30 yuan/500 kilograms [2] Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (2015 = 100), down 2.21; the eliminated laying hen index is 101.18 (2015 = 100), down 13.26. The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan/feather, and the new chick index nationwide is 93.62 (2015 = 100), up 26.53. The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, and the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.39 yuan/hen, up 0.08 yuan/hen. The average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 7.9 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg, and the age of eliminated chickens nationwide is 500 days, down 10 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 17.96 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of pork is 5.65 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.8 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan/kg. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, up 0.09 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, up 0.09 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7147 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.12 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.66 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.73 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.16 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the elimination of old chickens. The laying hen inventory has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved [2] Viewpoint Summary - The spot price remains low, and the breeding end is still in a loss state. The market's enthusiasm for replenishment is poor, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the enthusiasm for eliminating old chickens has slightly slowed down recently. High production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg market oscillated and closed lower. The 2603 contract closed at 2951 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 37 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - The market is caught between weak current conditions and strong future expectations. In the short - term, the near - month contracts may experience wide - range oscillations at low levels. The far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones due to the anticipated decline in production capacity, and investors can consider lightly going long on far - month contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The egg market oscillated and closed lower this week. The 2603 contract closed at 2951 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 37 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Losses in the breeding sector have led to reduced replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the culling of old hens. The egg - laying hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market sentiment has slightly improved. Low spot prices and continued losses for breeders have dampened replenishment enthusiasm, which is beneficial for long - term prices. However, New Year's Day stocking has started, increasing demand and boosting spot prices. The high inventory of laying hens is still constraining the performance of near - term market prices [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures March contract oscillated and closed lower, with an open interest of 211,240 lots, an increase of 20,607 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 45,394, showing little change in net short positions compared to last week [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg futures warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3076 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 104 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was + 125 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The egg 3 - 5 spread was reported at - 557 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [26]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of December 30, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.73 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was 5.63 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - side Indicators**: As of November 30, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was 112.03, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%, and the national new chick index was 93.62, a month - on - month increase of 39.54% [38]. - **Laying Hen Culling**: As of November 30, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 101.18, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%, and the average age of culled hens was 500 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of December 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2351.76 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3120 yuan per ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of December 26, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.47 yuan per chicken, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.8 yuan per kilogram [53]. - **Egg - laying Hen Chick and Culled Hen Prices**: As of December 26, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 2.80 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 7.74 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In November 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,045.52 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.13% (an increase of 1091.86 tons compared to the same period last year) and a month - on - month decrease of 349.02 tons compared to the previous month [63]. 3.4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: Information about the company's price - earnings ratio change is provided, but no detailed analysis is given [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the near - month egg futures contracts are expected to be weak in a range, and it is advisable to consider building long positions in far - month contracts at low prices. The year 2026 will see a relief in supply pressure in the first half due to significant culling and limited restocking in 2025. Egg spot prices are expected to gradually strengthen after the Chinese New Year, but the upside is limited as it is the off - season for demand. The supply in the second half of 2026 is uncertain. If egg prices are high in the first half, farmers may reduce culling and increase restocking, which will increase supply pressure. If prices are low, culling will increase and restocking will decrease, leading to a significant reduction in supply and a strong boost to spot prices. The second half is the peak season for egg consumption, so prices are likely to rise, with the magnitude depending on the supply situation [8][9]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3072, up 4 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3541, down 13; JD09 closed at 4066, up 14. The 01 - 05 spread was - 469, up 17; the 05 - 09 spread was - 525, down 27; the 09 - 01 spread was 994, up 10. - **Ratio with Feed Grains**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.33, up 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, up 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.78, up 0.02. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.99, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.27, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.41, up 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The main production area average price was 3 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main sales area average price was 3.18 yuan/jin, unchanged. Most of the national mainstream egg prices remained stable, with prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong showing little change, and the egg price continued to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.89 yuan/jin, unchanged. The prices in various regions such as Handan and Shijiazhuang remained stable [2]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost and Profit**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.89 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04; the cost of egg - laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The profit per feather was - 0.03 yuan, down 1.16 yuan from the previous day. The average price of corn was 2352 yuan, up 6 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3134 yuan, unchanged; the compound feed for egg - laying hens was 2.59 yuan, up 0.01 yuan [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In November, the national laying hen inventory was 1.352 billion, down 80 million from the previous month and up 5.5% year - on - year, lower than expected. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated laying hen inventories in December 2025, November 2025, February 2026, and March 2026 are 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively. As of December 18, the weekly culled hen output in the main production areas was 19.67 million, with little change; the average culling age was 486 days, unchanged. The weekly egg sales in representative sales areas were 7023 tons, with little change and at a historical low [4][5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, slightly up; on December 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, down 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly down; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly up [6]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the near - month contracts will be weak in the short - term, and it is advisable to consider building long positions in far - month contracts at low prices. - **Arbitrage and Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core View - This week, the egg market showed an oscillating upward trend. The market is currently in a state of game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short - term, the near - month contracts may fluctuate widely, while the far - month contracts are expected to perform better under the expectation of declining production capacity. It is advisable to try to go long on far - month contracts with a light position [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - The 2603 contract of eggs closed at 2988 yuan/500 kilograms, up 42 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week. Due to continuous losses in the breeding end, the enthusiasm for replenishment has declined, the number of old hens culled has increased, and the egg - laying hen inventory has slightly decreased. The current spot price remains low, and the breeding end is still in a loss state, which is beneficial for long - term prices. However, the current in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level, and the culling of old hens has slightly slowed down, which restricts the performance of the near - month market price. [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top Twenty Positions**: The March contract of egg futures oscillated upward, with a position volume of 190,633 lots, an increase of 16,051 lots from last week. The net position of the top twenty was - 44,991, compared with - 52,210 last week, and the net short position decreased [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 0 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 2972 yuan/500 kilograms, down 148 yuan/500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 16 yuan/ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 598 yuan/500 kilograms, which was at a relatively low level in the same period [26]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of December 25, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.44 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.75 yuan/kg [32]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm**: As of November 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was reported at 112.03, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%. The national new - born chick index was reported at 93.62, a month - on - month increase of 39.54% [38]. - **Egg - laying Hen Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of November 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen culling index was reported at 101.18, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 500 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Price Trends**: As of December 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2338.04 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3080 yuan/ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of December 19, 2025, the breeding profit per egg - laying hen was reported at - 0.36 yuan, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan/kg [53]. - **Egg - laying Hen Chick and Culled Hen Prices**: As of December 19, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.80 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 7.90 yuan/kg [57]. - **Monthly Egg Export Volume**: In November 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,045.52 tons, an increase of 1091.86 tons compared with 11,953.66 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 9.13%. It decreased by 349.02 tons compared with 13,394.53 tons in the previous month [62]. 4. Representative Enterprise - No in - depth analysis of the representative enterprise (Xiaoming Co., Ltd.) is provided except for showing the change of its price - earnings ratio.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range shock state, and investors can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active contract for eggs is 2,876 yuan/500 kilograms, down 12 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for eggs is - 44,712 lots, up 4,875 lots [2] - The monthly spread (5 - 9) of egg futures is - 505 yuan/500 kilograms, up 7 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract for eggs is 190,357 lots, up 4,038 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 169 yuan/500 kilograms, up 2 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 114.24 (2015 = 100), down 1.02; the culled laying hen index nationwide is 114.44 (2015 = 100), down 10.19 [2] - The average price of layer chicks in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan/chick, unchanged; the new chick index nationwide is 67.09 (2015 = 100), down 9.56 [2] - The average price of layer compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, unchanged; the layer farming profit is - 0.36 yuan/hen, unchanged [2] - The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 7.9 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan; the average age of culled chickens nationwide is 510 days, up 3 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.53 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.83 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.96 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.12 days, up 0.02 days [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1 day, down 0.01 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13,394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7,023 tons, down 104 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main producing areas remained unchanged from the previous day [2] - The continuous losses of the farming end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens culled. The laying hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market atmosphere has improved slightly [2] Viewpoint Summary - The spot price remains low, the farming end is still in a loss state, and the market's enthusiasm for replenishment is poor, which is beneficial to the long - term price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, the culling of old hens has slowed down slightly, and the high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price is expected to continue to rise slightly until the New Year's Day, with the focus of the egg price shifting upwards [5][10] - The supply pressure has been alleviated, and the short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, while the far - month May contracts can be considered for long - building at low prices [17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, with little change from last Friday. After a small - scale price increase during the week, the egg price entered a stable and wait - and - see state. The inventory in each link decreased, and the red - powder price difference returned to a reasonable level [5] - The price of old hens in the production areas remained stable overall with narrow local adjustments. It is expected that the supply and demand of the old hen market will be in a stalemate next week, and the weekly average price may be around 4.10 yuan/jin [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - On December 18, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens in the main production areas across the country was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of culled chickens in the week of December 18 was 486 days, the same as the previous week [10] - In November, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 0.008 billion from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in November was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of December 17, the corn price was around 2349 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3118 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2580 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.83 yuan/jin of feed cost per jin of eggs [13] - The price of corn decreased and the price of soybean meal increased this week, resulting in a slight increase in the cost of per - jin eggs. The average price of eggs in the main production areas increased slightly, so the profit per jin of eggs also increased. As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - After the festival, the demand in the sales areas became weak. Coupled with the large inventory pressure in the production areas, the overall market sales were under pressure. The market sales volume decreased month - on - month. As of December 18, the weekly sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from last week and at a low level over the years [16] - The inventory in the production link decreased month - on - month, and the inventory in the circulation link increased month - on - month. As of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly less than last week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly more than the previous week [16] - This week, the vegetable price index and the pork price both increased slightly. On December 17, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 142.01, and the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.81 yuan/kg, with little change from last week [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the far - month May contracts can be considered for long - building at low prices [17] - Single - side: It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Long positions can be considered for the far - month contracts at low prices [17] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Inventory (Zhuochuang) - Data on the inventory of laying hens in production and the replenishment of brooding chickens over the years are presented in the form of a chart [21] 3.2.2 Culled Chicken Situation - Data on the weekly slaughter volume of culled chickens over the years are presented in the form of a chart [22] 3.2.3 Laying Hen Farming Situation - Data on the age of culled chickens and the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas are involved, but specific data are not described in detail [26] 3.2.4 Price Difference and Basis - Data on the basis of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the price differences of 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 contracts over the years are presented in the form of charts [29][30][33]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market showed a downward trend this week. The continuous losses of the breeding industry have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the elimination of old hens, resulting in a slight decrease in the egg - laying hen inventory and a slight improvement in the market atmosphere. The low spot prices and continued losses in the breeding industry are favorable for long - term prices. However, the current high inventory of laying hens, the slight slowdown in the elimination of old hens, and the pessimistic market atmosphere still restrict the performance of near - term prices. The futures price continued to decline this week. The far - month contracts are caught between weak current realities and strong expectations, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, eggs fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 2946 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 78 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous losses of the breeding industry have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the elimination of old hens, resulting in a slight decrease in the egg - laying hen inventory. The low spot prices and continued losses in the breeding industry are favorable for long - term prices. However, the current high inventory of laying hens, the slight slowdown in the elimination of old hens, and the pessimistic market atmosphere still restrict the performance of near - term prices. The far - month contracts are caught between weak current realities and strong expectations, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top 20 Positions**: The egg futures March contract fluctuated and closed down, with a position of 174,582 lots, an increase of 17,921 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 52,210, compared to - 38,490 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3120 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 8 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at 174 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 550 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is generally at a low level for the same period [26]. - **Related Commodities Spot Prices**: As of December 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.51 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.9 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm**: As of October 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 114.24, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%. The national new - chick index was reported at 67.09, a month - on - month decrease of 12.47% [38]. - **Elimination Index and Culling Age**: As of October 31, 2025, the national elimination index of laying hens was reported at 114.44, a month - on - month decrease of 8.18%. The national average culling age of hens was reported at 510 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of December 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2349.61 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3080 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of December 12, 2025, the breeding profit per laying hen was reported at - 0.36 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of December 12, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.80 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 7.94 yuan per kilogram [61]. - **Monthly Egg Exports**: According to data released by the Chinese Customs, in October 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,394.53 tons, an increase of 923.78 tons compared to the same period last year (12,470.75 tons), a year - on - year increase of 7.41%, and a month - on - month increase of 178.74 tons compared to the previous month (13,215.79 tons) [65]. 3.4 Representative Company - Information about Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is mainly presented in the form of a P/E ratio chart, but no specific analysis of the company is provided in the text [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg industry in 2026 has the conditions to start an upward cycle as the capacity reduction has begun in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to continuous losses, but the sustainability of the rising cycle is doubtful because of the rapid increase in market scale and the large - scale idle capacity of leading groups [2][32] - The industry's cash - flow consumption has led to a decline in the supply in 2026, and on the demand side, the market will return to normal with stable regular consumption, but the impact of price increases on consumption needs to be considered [3][32][33] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Egg Futures and Spot Price Trend Review - The 2025 egg futures and spot prices resonated, with the market pessimistic due to the confirmed supply increase. The price trend was divided into five stages: 1 - 2 months, expectation - dominated and sideways; 3 - 5 months, futures and spot prices resonated and were anchored to cost; 6 - 7 months, futures and spot prices deviated with expectations leading; 8 - 10 months, the peak season was not prosperous, and both futures and spot prices declined; 11 - 12 months, the elimination increased, and the market traded the cycle reversal in advance [6][7][8][9][10] 2. 2026 Egg Operation Logic: Cycle May Reverse, but the Industrial Structure Does Not Support Sustained Profits 2.1 Supply Side: The Capacity Decline Trend Is Confirmed, and the Supply Decreases - The industry has entered the cash - flow loss stage, and the capacity reduction cycle has started. After 4 years of profit from 2021 - 2024, the industry entered a loss in 2025, and the capacity reduction cycle began in the fourth quarter [13] - The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has decreased, but large - scale farming may lead to accelerated replenishment in the next round. The enthusiasm for replenishing chicks has decreased since August 2025, and the存栏 is expected to decline in the first half of 2026. However, referring to the pig industry, the egg industry may accelerate the replenishment rhythm [16] - The elimination of old chickens has accelerated, but the total elimination is still insufficient. The elimination of old chickens has accelerated in November 2025, but the corporate side may extend the elimination rhythm. The存栏 structure has been optimized, and the egg - laying rate of the newly replenished chicks in 2026 is expected to increase [21][22] 2.2 Demand Side: Consumption Support May Fall Short of Expectations - The seasonal consumption pattern of eggs continues. Egg consumption has obvious seasonal characteristics, and the festival consumption has a significant short - term price - boosting effect. The inventory fluctuations in 2025 were larger than in 2024 [25] - The strong egg consumption did not continue. In 2025, egg consumption was strong in the off - season but weak in the peak season. The large amount of cold - storage eggs in the off - season overdrafted the peak - season demand, and the per - capita consumption reached the upper limit [27] - The pig cycle has entered a downward stage, and the substitution demand has weakened. In 2025, the pig price declined, and the substitution effect of pork on eggs increased, suppressing egg consumption [29][30] 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.1 Conclusion - The capacity reduction cycle has started, and the cycle is expected to reverse. In 2026, the industry has the conditions to start an upward cycle, but the sustainability of the rising cycle is doubtful [32] - On the supply side, the supply in 2026 will decrease year - on - year due to over 8 months of losses in 2025 and the acceleration of social elimination [32] - On the demand side, the cold - storage egg volume in 2026 is expected to be lower than in 2025, and regular consumption will be stable, but the impact of price increases on consumption needs to be considered [33] 3.2 Investment Outlook - In the first half of 2026, it is in the consumption off - season, with high inventory and young chicken age. The spot price is expected to fluctuate between 2,400 - 4,000 yuan/500 kg. In the second half of the year, if there is over - elimination in the first half and the impact of high temperature on the egg - laying rate, the price may rise significantly, with the core fluctuation range of the spot price expected to be 3,300 - 4,700 yuan/ton and the futures index between 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [35] - In terms of trading strategies, go long on peak - season contracts at low prices in the first half of the year, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the spot price reaches the peak in the third quarter. The industry should arrange hedging according to expected profits [35]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 鸡蛋市场周报 市场情绪仍然悲观 鸡蛋近月再度下探 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收跌，2603合约收盘价为3024元/500千克，较前一周-56元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：养殖端持续亏损使得补栏积极性下滑且老鸡淘汰量有所增加，蛋鸡存栏小幅回落，市 场氛围略有好转。且现货价格持续偏低，养殖端仍处于亏损状态，市场补栏积极性欠佳，利好远 期价格。不过，当前蛋鸡在产存栏仍然处于高位，老鸡尚未出现超淘，高产能仍然牵制近月市场 价格表现。总体而言，市场博弈于弱现实与强预期之间。短期近月合约或处于宽幅震荡状态,可轻 仓试多远月。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 来源：大商所 wind 来源：大商所 瑞达期货研究院 ...