Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stark contrast between the profitability of Australian iron ore miners and the struggles faced by Chinese steel mills due to high iron ore prices, which are hovering around $90-100 per ton. This situation has led to significant wealth accumulation for Australian miners at the expense of Chinese steel producers [1]. Group 1: Australian Mining Industry - Australian miners are benefiting from low production costs, with the Hamersley region in Western Australia having iron ore grades as high as 64% and production costs below $20 per ton. The total logistics cost from mine to port is under $35 per ton [3]. - Major Australian mining companies, such as Rio Tinto, are set to further reduce costs with new projects, including the West Angelas project, which is expected to lower costs due to shared transportation infrastructure [3][7]. - The article notes that Australian miners are ordering autonomous trucks to enhance efficiency and further reduce operational costs, showcasing a significant competitive advantage in the industry [7]. Group 2: Chinese Steel Industry - Chinese steel mills are facing severe challenges, with iron ore consumption increasing by 3% year-on-year while struggling to maintain profitability due to high raw material costs [1]. - The article mentions that Chinese steel producers are heavily reliant on iron ore imports, with 60% of their supply coming from Australia, leading to a significant financial burden on the industry [1]. - The domestic mining costs in China are notably high, with low-grade iron ore extraction costing between $80-125 per ton, which is more than double the costs faced by Australian miners [6]. Group 3: Global Mining Competitiveness - Other countries, such as Brazil and South Africa, are experiencing high transportation costs that severely limit their competitiveness in the iron ore market. For instance, Brazil's total costs can reach $70-100 per ton due to long-distance transport [4]. - Indian mining operations are hindered by fluctuating export tariffs and high transportation costs, leading to a total cost range of $60-100 per ton, which poses a risk of losses for miners [6]. - South African mining operations face even higher costs, with extraction and transportation expenses leading to total costs of $80-130 per ton, making it difficult to compete in the global market [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a strong and volatile trend, with a daily increase of 1.45%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of rebar have increased, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the low inventory level, limited real - world contradictions, and the recent fermentation of policy benefits. The positive market sentiment supports the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a volatile manner, with a daily increase of 1.45%, and the volume decreased while the open interest remained stable. At present, the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil are mainly operating stably, and the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, the expectation of policy benefits has fermented again. Under the support of optimistic sentiment, the price of hot - rolled coil will maintain a strong operation trend in the short term. Be cautious about the switch of the trading logic to the industrial side [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore showed a strong operation, with a daily increase of 2.45%, and the volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore shows good resilience. Coupled with the positive market sentiment, the short - term price of iron ore will operate strongly. However, there are concerns about the demand for iron ore, and the supply is showing a stable trend. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited. Be cautiously optimistic about the upward height, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Guangzhou will implement the "commercial - to - public loan" policy to boost the real estate market. When the personal housing loan ratio of housing provident fund is lower than 75%, the commercial - to - public loan will be launched; when the loan ratio reaches 85% or above, preventive measures can be taken; when the loan ratio reaches 90% or above, it will be suspended [6]. - The Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers in June increased by 29% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month, and the cumulative wholesale sales from January to June were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [7]. - Australian mining company Fenix Resources officially launched the mining of the Beebyn - W11 iron ore project. The project has a designed annual production capacity of 1.5 million tons and is expected to achieve the first shipment of iron ore in the third quarter of 2025, which will increase the company's total iron ore production capacity to 4 million tons per year [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,120, 3,160, and 3,244 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,250, 3,140, and 3,252 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100. The volume - spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130, and the volume - spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 724, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 690, the sea freight from Australia was 7.04 and from Brazil was 18.93, the SGX swap (current month) was 95.25, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 95.10 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,076, with a daily increase of 1.45%, the highest price was 3,086, the lowest price was 3,050, the trading volume was 1,776,150, the volume difference was - 595,134, the open interest was 2,237,249, and the open - interest difference was 10,870 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,208, with a daily increase of 1.45%, the highest price was 3,217, the lowest price was 3,175, the trading volume was 694,556, the volume difference was - 225,872, the open interest was 1,595,284, and the open - interest difference was - 474 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 733.0, with a daily increase of 2.45%, the highest price was 736.5, the lowest price was 721.5, the trading volume was 452,146, the volume difference was 2,895, the open interest was 639,417, and the open - interest difference was - 8,458 [11]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel mill production conditions (including 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation) [13][18][28] Market Outlook - For rebar, both the supply and demand sides have increased. The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the low inventory level, limited real - world contradictions, and the recent fermentation of policy benefits. The positive market sentiment supports the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply and demand sides are operating stably. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, the expectation of policy benefits has fermented again. Under the support of optimistic sentiment, the price of hot - rolled coil will maintain a strong operation trend in the short term. Be cautious about the switch of the trading logic to the industrial side [38]. - For iron ore, the demand shows good resilience, and the short - term price will operate strongly. However, there are concerns about the demand, and the supply is showing a stable trend. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited. Be cautiously optimistic about the upward height, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [38].

Core Viewpoint - The transaction involving Xinjiang Baodi Mining Co., Ltd. is expected to dilute immediate returns but is justified by the long-term benefits of increased iron ore reserves and enhanced operational capabilities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Immediate Returns - The basic and diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to decrease by 33.33% post-transaction, with pre-transaction EPS at 0.03 and post-transaction EPS at 0.02 [1]. - In 2024, the company's EPS is expected to increase post-transaction, while in the first quarter of 2025, it may experience a dilution compared to pre-transaction levels [1]. Group 2: Necessity and Rationality of the Transaction - The transaction will increase the company's total iron ore resources from 3.8 billion tons to approximately 4.6 billion tons, representing a 21.75% increase [2]. - The acquisition will enhance the company's operational footprint in Xinjiang, particularly in the Kashgar and Kizilsu regions, thereby strengthening its market influence [2]. - The transaction aligns with the company's core business of iron ore mining and processing, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [3]. Group 3: Measures to Mitigate Dilution of Immediate Returns - The company plans to expedite the integration of the acquired entity to realize expected benefits quickly [3]. - There will be an emphasis on improving corporate governance and operational efficiency to enhance overall performance [4]. - The company will refine its profit distribution policy to ensure fair returns to all shareholders while maintaining sustainable growth [4]. - Commitments from directors and major shareholders have been made to ensure measures are in place to mitigate the dilution of immediate returns [5]. Group 4: Independent Financial Advisor's Opinion - The independent financial advisor has deemed the company's expectations regarding the dilution of immediate returns to be reasonable and in compliance with relevant regulations aimed at protecting minority investors [6].

市场消息：印度4-5月铁矿石产量同比增长0.6%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers trading strategies and trend analysis for various commodities. For example, copper is supported by a weak dollar; zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has a positive outlook due to peak - season expectations; nickel's upside is limited by changes in the mining and smelting sectors; stainless steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity; and lithium carbonate may continue to experience high volatility [3][6]. Summary by Commodity Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak dollar supports copper prices. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,920 yuan with a 1.31% daily increase, and the London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,879 dollars with a - 0.17% change. Japanese JX Metal will cut refined copper production, and China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: It is at a short - term high. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,410 yuan with a 0.76% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Lead**: There are peak - season expectations supporting prices. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,125 yuan with a - 0.58% change. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's support from the mining end is weakening, and the smelting end limits its upside. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,480 yuan. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan. There are multiple industry news such as project startups and production resumptions in the nickel industry [14][15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: High volatility may continue due to fundamental pressure and warehouse - receipt contradictions. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by production - cut news, and attention should be paid to its upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment. The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,030 yuan, and the PS2508 contract of polysilicon closed at 33,315 yuan [21]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations. The 12509 contract closed at 716.5 yuan with a 1.56% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [24]. - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,995 yuan with a 0.98% increase, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,121 yuan with a 0.94% increase. There are changes in steel production, inventory, and demand [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Ferro, Manganese Ferro)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. Silicon ferro is boosted by spot sentiment, and manganese ferro is boosted by port quotes. The silicon ferro 2509 contract closed at 5370 yuan, and the manganese ferro 2509 contract closed at 5670 yuan [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both show a tendency to be strong with fluctuations. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 847.5 yuan with a 3.42% increase, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1421.5 yuan with a 1.86% increase [34][35]. - **Steam Coal**: It stabilizes with fluctuations as daily consumption recovers. The ZC2507 contract had no trading, and previous prices showed a decline [39][40]. - **Log**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with a contract - main switch. The 2507 contract closed at 819 yuan [43]. - **Paraxylene, PTA, MEG**: Paraxylene supply is shrinking, and the month - spread is strong; PTA is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is weak on a single - side basis. Paraxylene's 9 - 1 month - spread shows a positive trend, and PTA and MEG have their own supply - demand and cost - related factors [46][50]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run with short - term fluctuations. The main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,275 yuan. The industry has inventory and price changes [52]. - **Asphalt**: It shows weak fluctuations, and long - crack spread positions should consider taking profits. The BU2507 contract closed at 3,577 yuan. Refinery inventory rates decreased [55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - end fundamentals in the producing areas have limited improvement, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal rebounds with fluctuations, and risks related to the USDA report should be avoided. Soybean No.1 has a stable spot price and a rebounding and fluctuating futures price [5]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to auctions [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound consolidation [5]. - **Cotton**: Optimistic sentiment drives the futures price to rise with fluctuations [5]. - **Eggs**: Gradually arrange short positions in far - month contracts [5]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term adjustment [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the production and transportation of mainstream iron ore mines were disrupted, with the growth rate of supply falling short of expectations. The combined production/transportation volume of the four major mines in Q1 was 245 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. Although most of the eight non-mainstream mines tracked achieved a year-on-year output increase of 6.8%, their performance may not be representative of the overall overseas non-mainstream mines. - The trend of "increasing mainstream supply and decreasing non-mainstream supply" may become the main theme of overseas iron ore supply from Q2 to Q4. The dominance of Australian and Brazilian mainstream mines in global seaborne iron ore may be further strengthened this year. - The reduction in non-mainstream mine supply is not enough to fully offset the increase in the four major mines. Therefore, the report holds a relatively optimistic view on the overall annual supply [1][2][58]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview of the Operation of Major Mines in Q1 2025 - **Mainstream Four Major Mines**: The combined production/transportation volume in Q1 was 245.307 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.6%. Vale and Rio Tinto maintained their annual production and transportation volume guidance ranges. BHP and Fortescue had completed over 75% of the lower limit of their full fiscal - year guidance ranges by Q1 and are expected to meet their annual targets [7][8]. - **Non - Mainstream Mines**: Most of the eight non - mainstream mines tracked showed a seasonal quarter - on - quarter decline in production in Q1 but achieved an overall year - on - year output increase of 6.8%. Mineral Resources and Champion Iron had significant year - on - year increases [9]. 2. Key Points Interpretation of the Quarterly Reports of the Four Major Mines 2.1 Vale (Vale) - Weather Factors Affected, Q1 Production and Sales Diverged - **Overall Situation**: In Q1, iron ore production was 67.664 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. Sales were 66.141 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. The company is confident in achieving its annual production targets of 325 - 335 million tons in 2025 and 340 - 360 million tons in 2026. The C1 cash cost in Q1 was 21.0 US dollars/wet ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6% [11][13]. - **Operation Details**: The northern system was affected by weather and license restrictions, but the S11D mine's output reached a new high. The southeastern system's output decreased due to factory maintenance. The southern system focused on high - quality ore production, resulting in a decline in output. Ball pellet production also decreased due to weather [15][17][20]. 2.2 Rio Tinto (Rio Tinto) - Extreme Weather Affected, Production and Transportation Increases Were Hindered - **Overall Situation**: In Q1, affected by multiple hurricanes, the shipment was about 13 million tons behind schedule, and about 6.5 million tons are expected to be made up later. The output of the Pilbara mining area was 69.771 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%, and the shipment was 70.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The company may achieve the lower limit of its annual shipment guidance range [23]. - **Operation Details**: The Western Range project achieved its first production in Q1, and the Brockman Syncline 1 project's investment was approved. The Simandou project in Guinea is progressing as planned and is expected to have its first shipment in November [26][27]. 2.3 BHP (BHP) - Supply Chain Optimization Resisted Some Weather Risks, and Production Stabilized - **Overall Situation**: In Q1, the equity output was 61.772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and the sales volume was 60.679 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The company maintained its production guidance ranges for the 2025 fiscal year [33]. - **Operation Details**: The PDP - 1 project continued to improve efficiency. The second concentrator of the Samarco mine in Brazil was put into operation ahead of schedule, and the capacity ramp - up is expected to be completed by mid - year [35]. 2.4 Fortescue (Fortescue) - Low - Base Background, Q1 Output Increased Year - on - Year - **Overall Situation**: In Q1, the total iron ore shipment was 46.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The C1 cost of Pilbara hematite was 17.53 US dollars/wet ton, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 7% [36]. - **Operation Details**: The Iron Bridge project was affected by a tropical cyclone. The company expects the total shipment of the Iron Bridge project to reach 10 - 12 million tons in FY26, 16 - 20 million tons/year in the first half of 2027, and full production of 22 million tons/year in FY28. The company completed the acquisition of Red Hawk in March [38][39]. 3. Review of the Quarterly Operation of Major Non - Mainstream Iron Ore Producers 3.1 Anglo American - Kumba's Logistics Continued to Improve, Minas - Rio's Output Reached a New High - **Kumba Iron Ore**: In Q1, the output was 8.99 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%, and the shipment was 8.939 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The iron grade remained stable at 64.2%. - **Minas - Rio Mine**: The output in Q1 was 6.455 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%, and the shipment was 5.625 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.9%. The iron grade averaged 67%. The company's annual production guidance range is 57 - 61 million tons, and it will continue to invest in logistics and infrastructure [41][43][44]. 3.2 ArcelorMittal - The Second - Phase Expansion of AML Is Nearly Completed, and Full Production Rate Will Be Reached by the End of the Year - In Q1, the total output was 11.8 million tons, and the output of the Liberian mines AML and AMMC for external sales was 8.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.2%. The company is expanding its mines in Liberia and acquiring new mineral resources in India. The second - phase expansion of the Liberian iron mine aims to increase the annual capacity from 15 million tons to 20 million tons and is expected to reach full production by the end of the year [45][47]. 3.3 India NMDC - Current Production Is Stable, and Long - Term Ambitious Goals Remain Unchanged - In Q1, the iron ore output was 13.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%, and the sales volume was 12.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. The company aims to exceed 50 million tons in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and reach 100 million tons by 2030 [48][49]. 3.4 Brazil CSN - The Construction of the P15 Mining Area Continues to Advance - In Q1, the output was 10.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%, and the sales volume was 9.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The construction of the P15 mining area started earthwork excavation in Q1 and is expected to enter the equipment installation and commissioning stage in the second half of the year. The annual output target range remains at 42 - 43.5 million tons [50][52]. 3.5 Mineral Resources (MinRes) - The Shipment Growth Rate of Onslow Continued to Increase - In Q1, the output of Onslow Iron decreased by 22.9% quarter - on - quarter due to logistics and weather. The company adjusted its annual output target to 8.5 - 8.7 million wet tons and expects Onslow to reach full production in the third quarter of this year [53]. 3.6 Champion Iron - Bloom Lake's Sales Reached a Record High, and Shipments in Canada Increased Again - In Q1, the output of the Bloom Lake mining area was 3.167 million wet tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. The sales volume was 3.495 million dry tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.7%. The inventory decreased from 2.94 million wet tons to 2.6 million wet tons [55][56][57]. 4. Summary and Future Outlook - In Q1, the supply of mainstream mines was disrupted by weather, but the shipment improved in Q2. The report is confident in the annual supply increase of mainstream mines. - In Q1, the shipment of non - mainstream mines decreased significantly compared to last year. It is expected that the production and shipment volume of non - mainstream mines will be difficult to reach last year's level in the remaining time of this year. The trend of "increasing mainstream supply and decreasing non - mainstream supply" may dominate the overseas iron ore supply from Q2 to Q4, and the overall annual supply is expected to be relatively loose [58][59][62].

铁矿石：2011-15扩产周期与当前扩产 周期的比较 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年6月 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 一、2011-15年扩产周期——整体回顾 背景- 2010-15年间，四大矿山巨额资本开支周期与低息周期基本对应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：矿企历年财报，Bloomberg，iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 2 资料来源 Bloomberg ，iFinD国泰君安期货研究 ： 矿企历年财报 ， • 宏观经济及行业状况方面： ➢ 2007-08金融危机后，以美联储为首的央行采取大幅降息和量化宽松等操作，为市场注入巨大流动性 ➢ 对于商品上游的开采企业，彼时的金融环境意味着更低的项目融资成本，助推海外矿企向项目开发投入更多资本开支 一、2011-15年扩产周期——整体回顾 铁矿供给及价格表现- 20.8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 亿吨 WSA：铁矿：产量： ...

Core Viewpoint - Baodi Mining (601121.SH) is expanding its iron ore industry footprint by acquiring 87% of Xinjiang Congling Energy Co., Ltd. for a total consideration of 685 million yuan, which includes 89.375 million yuan in cash and approximately 596 million yuan in shares [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will allow Baodi Mining to fully control Congling Energy, which specializes in iron ore mining, processing, and sales, aligning with Baodi's core business [1][2]. - Post-acquisition, Baodi Mining's iron ore resource volume will increase to approximately 460 million tons, representing a growth of about 21.75% in reserves [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Congling Energy has shown strong financial performance, with net profits of 31.44 million yuan, 42.78 million yuan, and 84.92 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, indicating steady growth [3]. - Baodi Mining's total assets reached 6.583 billion yuan as of March 2025, more than doubling from 3.264 billion yuan at the end of 2021 [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Expansion - Baodi Mining has been actively acquiring other assets to enhance its resource reserves, including the successful acquisition of the Hasi Yatu polymetallic mine for 350 million yuan prior to its IPO [5]. - The company is also working on integrated development projects to boost production capacity, with expected annual output of 4.9813 million tons of iron concentrate from the Beizhan Mining project [5].

2025年发运量持续增加 2024年，全球铁矿石发运量总计158745万吨，同比增加1.5%。其中，非主流矿山的发运量为27406万 吨，同比增加6.2%，在全球发运总量中的占比达到17.3%。尽管四大矿山集团在全球铁矿石贸易中处于 主导地位，然而非主流矿山所提供的边际产量因对价格高度敏感，成为铁矿石价格的风向标及市场供应 边际变化的重要参考。鉴于非主流矿山发运量占比呈现逐年上升的态势，并且新增产能的释放也在稳步 推进，预计2025年非主流矿山的发运量持续增加。 2025年，全球非主流矿山有多个项目释放新增产能，如Onslow铁矿项目、宁巴高品位铁矿项目、唐克 里里铁矿二期扩建项目、Fenix扩产计划等。综合各项目进度及产能释放情况，预估2025年非主流矿山 将新增产能3844万吨。 Onslow铁矿项目 Onslow铁矿项目（原名阿什伯顿项目）由矿产资源有限公司（Mineral Resources Limited）、宝武股 份、AMCI、POSCO共同开发。其中，Mineral Resources Limited权益占比60.3%，其不仅直接持有57% 的权益份额，还通过Aquila Resources间接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The macro - drive of iron ore is wavering, and the price is expected to oscillate repeatedly. The fundamentals of iron ore are showing signs of changing from tight to loose, but the relatively high downstream开工 rate resists price decline. Considering the multi - faceted potential political events at the macro - level, the iron ore price may continue the range - bound trend in the short term [3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 09 contract fluctuated narrowly this week, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton. The position was 696,000 lots, a decrease of 29,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 344,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 49,000 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Spot prices continued to be weak, with medium - grade ores experiencing larger declines. For example, the price of PB powder decreased by 11 yuan/ton from last week [11] Iron Ore Supply Mainstream Mines - Australian shipments continued to rise. BHP and Fortescue had strong momentum to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year, both reaching year - on - year highs, strengthening the expectation of loose supply. Freight rates showed some differentiation [5][16] Non - mainstream Mines - The iron ore shipments from Peru have not fully recovered [20] Domestic Mines - Previously, production activities in the southwest region were restricted due to anti - corruption inspections. Recently, the开工 rate in North China also decreased due to supervision and inspections [27] Iron Ore Demand Downstream - The production of five major steel products and the port ore clearance volume declined steeply recently. The pig iron output continued to decline month - on - month, but the absolute level remained relatively high [33] Scrap Steel Substitution Effect - The arrival of scrap steel was relatively neutral, and the scrap - iron price difference continued to widen, reaching a new stage high [34] Iron Ore Inventory - The inflection point of inventory accumulation has emerged [38][40] Downstream Profits - The prices of coking coal and coke rebounded, leading to a decline in downstream profits [44] Spot Category Spreads - The spread between medium - and low - grade ores (PB - Super Special) continued to narrow [46] Futures Monthly Spreads - Due to the downward - revised supply - demand expectation in the second half of the year, the near - month contract weakened, and the 9 - 1 spread narrowed by 5.5 yuan/ton week - on - week to 30.5 yuan/ton [50] Basis Performance - As the fundamentals weakened in reality, the spot price made up for the decline, and the basis converged [53]