本文来源： #鑫椤锂电 行业热点新闻 I C C S I N O 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 枧下窝矿能否如期复产尚未有定论 9月10日，期货日报记者求证获悉，宁德时代控股子公司宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司于9月9日召开了"枧下窝锂矿复产 工作会议"，争取能够在今年11月完成视下的复产工作。 但能否如期达成复产目标，尚未有定论，后续或将根据实际推 进情况进行灵活调整。 业内人士提醒称，在枧下窝项目尚未真正确定复产日期之前，市场可能会有各类与"复产"相关 的消息传出，建议投资者理性看待各种市场消息，理性持仓，切忌过度依赖各类"消息"来参与交易，从而避免情绪回落 带来的价格调整风险。 多氟多：动力电池已排产至12月 9月8日，多氟多发布投资者关系活动记录表，公司电池业务涵盖动力、便携储能以及两/三轮车电池。 在动力领域，公 司自9月起订单激增，现已排产至12月，增长势头迅猛； 储能业务方面，整体表现稳健，预计今年及明年都将保持良好 态势；两/三轮车电池蓄势待发，增长潜力巨大，有望超预期。公司预计明年动力电池将维持稳定增长，而储能以及两/ 三轮车电池将迎 ...

| 碳酸锂日评20250912:偏弱震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-09-04 交易日期(日) 2025-09-11 2025-09-10 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | 收盘价 70300.00 73000.00 720.00 近月合约 71020.00 | | | | 连一合约 收盘价 70860.00 70560.00 73340.00 300.00 5 连二合约 收盘价 71300.00 70880.00 73420.00 420.00 3 | | | | 3 连三合约 收盘价 71300.00 70880.00 73580.00 420.00 | | | | 3 收盘价 71000.00 70720.00 73420.00 280.00 | | | | wn 砖酸锂期货 成交堂(手) 426041.00 751480.00 712151.00 -325,439.00 | | | | 活跃合约 (元/吨) 340814.00 5 持仓堂(手) 323456.00 353674.00 -17,358.00 | | | | 库存(吨) 38391.00 38 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 09 月 12 日 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -2% 7% 16% 25% 34% 43% 51% 60% 2024.09 2025.01 2025.05 2025.09 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,875.31 | 1.65 | 深证成指 | 12,979.89 | 3.36 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,548.03 | 2.31 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,339.56 | 2.24 ...

Group 1 - The core contradiction behind both "anti-involution" and supply-side reform is structural imbalance between supply and demand, leading to decreased capacity utilization, falling prices, declining corporate profits, and increased economic downward pressure [2][3][4] - Industrial capacity utilization in China has significantly declined, from 76.8% in Q4 2013 to 72.9% in 2016 before supply-side reform, and from 77.4% in Q4 2021 to 74.0% by Q2 2025 during the anti-involution phase [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has experienced prolonged negative growth, with a record 54 months during the supply-side reform and 34 months during the anti-involution period, starting from October 2022 [2][3] - Corporate profits have declined, with industrial profits dropping by 1.8% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, marking a profit margin low of 5.15%, lower than during the supply-side reform [3][4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment differs significantly between the two phases, with the anti-involution period facing more severe demand shortages due to population decline and a downturn in the real estate market, while the supply-side reform period had resilient demand [6][7] - In the anti-involution phase, real estate investment, sales area, and government land transfer income saw declines of 12.0%, 4.0%, and 4.6% respectively in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a prolonged downturn [7] - The anti-involution phase has a broader industry coverage, affecting upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, including new fields like "new three samples" and platform economies, unlike the supply-side reform which focused on traditional industries [8][9][10] Group 3 - The reasons behind the two phases differ, with supply-side reform primarily driven by excess capacity from previous stimulus policies, while anti-involution is influenced by a range of macro and industry factors, including deep adjustments in real estate [13][14] - The anti-involution phase is characterized by rapid technological updates and a lack of established industry structures, leading to a unique dilemma where companies must continue investing despite short-term losses to maintain market share [17] - The implementation paths also vary, with supply-side reform focusing on traditional industries and utilizing administrative measures, while anti-involution emphasizes legal and market-based approaches to regulate competition [18][20][21]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue its weak and volatile trend. The current market contradiction lies in the rising supply expectations and the slowdown of demand realization rhythm. Although the futures price is suppressed by the mine - restart news, factors such as spot de - stocking, strengthening basis, and rigid procurement during the peak season still support the price. Further price drops may trigger industrial hedging buying. In the future, capital's attention to relevant mine - end topics such as Jianxiaowo may increase, and the two - way disturbance from the news is expected to intensify [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Analysis** - **主力合约与基差**: On September 10, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 70,720 yuan/ton, a 2.99% decline from the previous day, showing a continuous decline trend. The basis strengthened to 2,280 yuan/ton [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The open interest decreased by 3% to 341,000 lots, declining for five consecutive trading days. The trading volume rebounded significantly by 27% to 751,000 lots [1]. - **产业链供需及库存变化分析** - **供给端**: Ningde Times' subsidiary planned to restart the Jianxiaowo lithium mine in November, which may release an increment of spodumene raw materials. However, short - term supply still depends on existing production capacity. The output of lithium carbonate from the spodumene route accounts for over 60%, while the proportion of the salt lake and mica routes has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 66.41% without an increase, limiting the short - term supply growth rate [2]. - **需求端**: In August, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 5% year - on - year and 9% month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 55.3%, showing the resilience of peak - season demand. However, there was a differentiation in the cathode material segment. The discount coefficient of ternary materials may be raised in September, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, reflecting an increase in downstream cost sensitivity. The price of cobalt - acid lithium in the cell segment jumped by 5% to 6.25 yuan/Ah, but its impact on lithium carbonate demand was limited [2]. - **库存与仓单**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.74% to 140,000 tons, with two consecutive weeks of de - stocking. Coupled with the narrowing of the spot discount and active downstream bargain - hunting purchases, it indicated a marginal improvement in short - term supply and demand in the spot market [2]. - **价格走势判断**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may continue its weak and volatile trend. The market contradiction is concentrated between the rising supply expectations and the slowdown of demand realization rhythm. Although the futures price is suppressed by the restart news, spot de - stocking, strengthening basis, and peak - season rigid procurement still support the price. Further price drops may trigger industrial hedging buying. In the future, capital's attention to relevant mine - end topics may increase, and the two - way disturbance from the news is expected to intensify [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **价格变动**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2,180 yuan to 70,720 yuan/ton, a 2.99% decline. The basis increased by 680 yuan to 2,280 yuan/ton, a 42.50% increase. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 10,526 lots to 340,814 lots, a 3.00% decline. The trading volume of the main contract increased by 159,805 lots to 751,480 lots, a 27.01% increase. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,500 yuan to 73,000 yuan/ton, a 2.01% decline. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 275 yuan to 33,620 yuan/ton, a 0.81% decline. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 0.30 yuan to 6.25 yuan/Ah, a 5.04% increase [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **现货市场报价**: On September 10, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,175 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton. The futures price of lithium carbonate dropped sharply, and the downstream material factories' enthusiasm for price - setting significantly increased. In September, the market shows a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected that there will be a temporary supply shortage this month [6]. - **下游消费情况**: According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.079 million, a 5% year - on - year increase and a 9% month - on - month increase. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 55.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 7.535 million, a 25% year - on - year increase [7]. - **行业新闻**: On September 9, Ningde Times' subsidiary held a meeting to discuss the restart of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine, aiming to restart production in November, but whether the goal can be achieved is uncertain. The settlement discount of ternary cathode materials is expected to be raised in September. The demand for ternary precursors is expected to continue to rise in September [8][9].

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证券日报网讯江特电机（002176）9月11日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，以目前的技术路线，未 来固态电池正负极材料、电解质均需要锂元素的参与，公司坐拥丰富、优质的锂矿资源，将积极关注固 态电池技术发展趋势，加快推进固态电池相关原材料的研发，把握更多的业务机会。 ...

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