Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic investment rating is "downward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, has significantly escalated energy risks in the Gulf region, leading to a sharp rise in global oil prices and posing a threat to the stability of the global economy [1][2][3] - The control of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for the "ultimate battle" in the Middle East, and losing control could lead to the decline of empires and shake the foundation of the US dollar [2][3] - The release of strategic oil reserves by the IEA cannot fully compensate for the supply gap caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, and high oil prices will impact the global economy [2][3] - The US stock market is at risk of a significant decline, and the current market situation is extremely dangerous. If the geopolitical situation does not improve in two weeks, the stock market may experience a collapse [2] - The global economy has been in a downward trend since the end of 2025 due to a series of wrong policies in the United States [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Global Economic Situation - On March 18, 2026, parts of Iran's South Pars Gas Field were attacked, and some petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh were attacked by the US and Israel, marking a significant escalation of energy risks in the Gulf region [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued an emergency warning, stating that the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have become legitimate targets for attack, and strikes will be carried out in the next few hours [1] - The US military used multiple 2.7 - ton bunker - buster bombs to attack Iranian missile positions along the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has sent more than 5,000 troops to the Middle East, with an aircraft carrier battle group rushing to the region [1] - Since the death of Khamenei in February 2026, Larijani has actually controlled Iran's highest decision - making power. His death has made Iran's power structure more unstable and the prospect of a cease - fire negotiation more remote [1] - Trump said the US is not ready to end the war with Iran, and the Pentagon is planning to mass - produce Iranian "Lucas" suicide drones [1] - There is a suspicion that the White House may have established a "oil price control team" to suppress oil prices [1] - Global oil prices are showing a rare dual - track split. Brent and WTI are still around $100, while Dubai and Oman crude oil spot prices have soared to $155 per barrel. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Brent and WTI will eventually be repriced upwards [1] Economic Logic - The IEA announced the release of 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves, the largest in history, but the actual global release speed is estimated to be no more than 3 million barrels per day, while the supply gap caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is 11 - 16 million barrels per day [2][3] - High oil prices are becoming more stable and will impact the global economy [3] - The Nasdaq futures have broken through key levels. AI's disruptive substitution in many industries and the Middle East situation may trigger a new round of large - scale selling in the US stock market [3] - The decline of the US stock market may have a significant negative impact on US consumption [3] - The global economy has been in a downward trend since the end of 2025 due to a series of wrong policies in the United States [3] Market Warnings - Goldman Sachs' hedge fund business director warned that the downside risk of the US stock market is seriously underestimated, and the current divergence between geopolitical conflicts and the calm volatility index is worthy of attention. It is recommended to adopt a defensive stance, simplify the investment portfolio, and moderately increase the cash ratio [2] - Barclays warned that the longer the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the higher the risk of stagflation [2] - If the geopolitical situation does not improve in two weeks, the stock market will face a collapse - like decline [2]

Just when policymakers thought they had finally overcome stubborn inflation, the Iran conflict sparked a rally in oil prices. ...

I've learned one thing. Never predict the oil price. We know the parameters of the supply and demand of the oil price. We know that at the moment Asia is lacking oil because 20% of the oil globally has gone and that oil was mostly going to Asia.So they're finding ways of replacing oil with coal sometimes and others. We don't miss oil. We don't, you know, we don't have a lack of oil in Europe. There's no lack of oil in North America.But the pressure that it's put has brought oil around $100 a barrel. >> Yeah ...

Group 1 - The White House has announced a 60-day suspension of the Jones Act to alleviate short-term disruptions in the oil market due to military operations [1] - The Jones Act requires that ships transporting goods between U.S. ports be U.S.-owned and operated, which has been linked to high shipping costs; the suspension aims to lower these costs by allowing international ships [2] - The administration is focused on the impact of this suspension on oil prices, particularly on the East Coast, although the exact effect remains uncertain [2] Group 2 - President Trump has expressed frustration over NATO allies' lack of naval support in the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that the U.S. might consider abandoning the area [4] - The White House has stated that the U.S. does not rely on the Strait of Hormuz for oil supply, as it is a net oil exporter, but is concerned about global oil prices [5] - The administration is sensitive to rising oil prices and is taking steps to address this issue [6]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced significant selling pressure, primarily driven by a surge in international oil prices on a day when the Federal Reserve's decisions were anticipated [1]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 407 points, equivalent to a 0.9% drop [1]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.6% [1]. - The Nasdaq Composite also saw a decline of 0.6% [1]. Group 2: Oil Prices - Brent crude oil futures increased by 6.1%, reaching $109.74 per barrel [1]. - WTI crude oil futures rose by 3.2%, reaching $99.27 per barrel [1].

Market Overview - The price of Bitcoin decreased by 5% to around $71,135, while Ethereum and Solana fell by 7% to $2,185 and 6% to $89 respectively [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.4%, the Nasdaq declined by 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 300 points [5] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.4% year-over-year, exceeding economists' expectations of a 2.9% increase [1] - Elevated energy prices are contributing to inflation concerns, as indicated by the recent PPI data [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% [8] - There is growing confidence among traders that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year [8] - The Fed's response to prolonged elevated energy costs may lead to higher interest rates for an extended period, which could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market [4][5] Geopolitical Factors - Brent crude futures increased by over 5% to $109 due to reports of attacks on Iran's South Pars gas field [6] - President Trump's comments regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz may influence market sentiment and energy prices [6][7]

伊朗称将在未来几个小时内打击中东三国石油设施。 据塔斯尼姆通讯社等伊朗媒体18日报道，伊朗南帕尔斯石油化工设施遭美国和以色列袭击。 袭击具体细节尚待查明。 责编：叶舒筠 校对： 冉燕青 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 屏幕下方点个赞，天天抓牛股！ P 据伊朗方面当地时间18日消息，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发出紧急警告，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和卡塔尔三国 石油设施成为合法打击目标，将在未来几个小时内进行打击，敦促相关区域民众撤离。 国际原油方面，美油、布油双双短线拉升，其中，布油涨超2%，报105.93美元/桶。 黄金出现短线跳水，现货黄金跌超2%，现货白银亦短线震荡下挫，跌2.09%，报78.25美元/ 盎司。 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.39%, the Dow Jones down 0.41%, and the S&P 500 down 0.34% [1] - Current prices are as follows: Dow Jones Industrial Average at 46,801.72, down 191.54 points (-0.41%); Nasdaq Index at 22,391.21, down 88.32 points (-0.39%); S&P 500 at 6,693.15, down 22.94 points (-0.34%) [2] Sector Performance - Technology stocks experienced a broad decline, with Meta and Western Digital both falling over 1%. Other major tech companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla also saw declines [2] - Oil stocks rose, with ExxonMobil increasing by 0.6% [2] - Precious metals sector weakened, with Coeur Mining dropping 4% and Pan American Silver declining over 6% [2] Chinese Stocks - Among Chinese stocks, Alibaba rose over 1%, while Bilibili fell over 2%. NIO and Xpeng Motors both dropped more than 1% [2]

伊朗迈赫尔通讯社18日报道说，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发出紧急警告，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和卡塔尔三 国石油设施成为合法打击目标，将在未来几个小时内进行打击，敦促相关区域民众撤离。 来源｜新华社 编辑 ｜ 钉钉 ...

据新华社援引伊朗迈赫尔通讯社18日报道说，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发出紧急警告，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和卡塔尔三国石油设施成为合法打击目标， 将在未来几个小时内进行打击，敦促相关区域民众撤离。 ...