政策预期偏强，钢材期现货市场延续震荡 东海黑色金属周度策略 东海期货研究所黑色策略组 2025-04-21 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：liuhf@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 武冰心 从业资格证号：F03118003 电话：021-80128600-8619 邮箱：wubx@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黑色策略 | 品种 | 钢材 | 铁矿石 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 区间震荡 | 区间震荡 | | 逻辑 | 本周钢材需求继续好转，且未来1-2周仍有回升 | 本周铁水产量小幅回落，不过近期钢厂利润尚可，钢材 | | | 空间，但中期看已经接近顶部，5月份之后料回 | 需求也在旺季之中，铁水产量仍有回升空间。但中期看 | | | 落。钢厂利润短期尚可，生产积极性不减，供应 | 已经接近顶部区域。供应方面，本周主流矿发运小幅回 | | | 处于相对高位。短期市场在走利润压缩逻辑。目 | 落，且按照季节性因素来看，未来几周发运量 ...

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 油价走弱，金价续涨 研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。 据新华社，会议指出，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质 量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质量发展。中国商务部回应美方海事、物流和造船领域 301 调查。商 务部发言人称，中方敦促美方尊重事实和多边经贸规则，遵守市场经济和公平竞争原则，停止"甩锅推 责"，尽早纠正错误做法。中方将密切关注美方有关动向，并将坚决采取必要措施维护自身权益。 重点品种： 股指，原油，贵金属 原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 0.33% 。欧佩克周三在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国 家进一步减产的最新计划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减 产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据 显示， ...

| | | | Mille | SDIC FUTURES | WO STAND H JIY | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月18日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆★ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。 本周螺纹表需超预期回暖，持续性有待观察，产量小幅下降，库存去化加快，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热 卷需求好转，产量趋稳，库存继续下降，随着吨钢和润下滑，高炉复产态势放缓。从一季度数据看，基建、制造业有所好转， 地产销售、新开工降幅边 ...

| | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | <12601 | J2509 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元/吨) | | | | | | | | 4月17日 | 3131.00 | 3225.00 | 679.00 | 1555. 50 | 1006. 00 | | | 涨跌值 | -10.00 | -19.00 | -0. 50 | -20. 00 | -17.50 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | -0. 32 | -0. 59 | -0. 07 | -1.27 | -1.71 - | | | 近月合约收盘价 (主力合约元/吨) | RB2510 | HC2510 | 12509 | J2505 | JM2509 | | | 4月17日 | 3092. 00 | 3191.00 | 707.00 | 1538. 50 | 950. 50 | | 期货 | 一涨跌值 | -14.00 | -24.00 | 0. 50 - | -26.50 | -22.00 | | 市场 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.45 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月18日08时17分 报告导读： 美对中国加征 245%的关税， 贸易紧张局势扰动市场，全球资本市场剧烈波动，拖累黑色系商品。 进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁 最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所下降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比继续上涨。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热 度快速回升，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。贸易战对板材下游消费以及出口均将构 成一定的负面冲击，预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。从技术上看，期价跌破了前期的点后有所反弹，短线面临一定的不确定性。 操作建议： 空单可以轻仓持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 数据类别 指标 单位 最新 较上日 较上周 | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3092 | -1 | -0.03% | -47 | -1.50% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3191 ...

【钢材】 | | | | MILLA | SDIC FUTURES | WE STAND A 314 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月17日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆★ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日盘面冲高回落。 本周螺纹表需超预期回暖，持续性有待观察，产量小幅下降，库存去化加快，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热 卷需求好转，产量趋稳，库存继续下降，随着吨钢和润下滑，预计高炉复产态势将放缓。从一季度数据看，基建、制造业有所 好转, 地产销售、新开 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation, which may lead to more cautious monetary policies and increased market volatility [13]. - The US economic slowdown and the impact of export restrictions on corporate earnings may cause the stock market to remain weak [21]. - In the bond market, the overall situation is bullish before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven, but the upward trend may be volatile [24]. - In the commodity market, most commodities are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, showing weak or volatile trends [25][33][53]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US retail sales in March increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since January 2023. Powell said that tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation [12][13]. - Gold prices reached a new high, and the stock market declined significantly. The tariff issue is the main trading logic in the market, and risk - aversion sentiment drives funds into gold [13]. - Short - term market sentiment is over - bullish, and risks need to be noted [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - As of February, 14 US states had more unemployed people than job vacancies, the highest in 14 years. The US may relax the repayment requirements for Ukraine's aid [14][15]. - Powell is worried that the Fed may be caught between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. The market risk appetite has weakened, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell reiterated that the Fed will wait and see before taking action. The H20 chip of NVIDIA faces a cost of $5.5 billion due to export restrictions [19][20]. - The market risk appetite has deteriorated, and the stock index is expected to remain weak [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's GDP in Q1 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 104.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.44 billion yuan on the day [23][24]. - Although economic indicators in Q1 showed signs of stabilization, there are still challenges in the future. The bond market is in a bullish trend before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven [24]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in Q1 2025 was 67.844 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased by 7.05% month - on - month. The short - term trend of the oil market is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [27][28]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment from January to March increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to factors such as tariffs and weak demand [29][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to decline, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The terminal demand is not optimistic [35]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in northern ports has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The price of old - crop corn may be driven up after the May 05 contract delivery [37]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Overseas alumina market transactions are active, and prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Santa Cruz copper project has obtained financing intentions, and establishing a joint venture may be a way to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine [40][41]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Junda Co., Ltd.'s Q1 revenue decreased by 49.52% year - on - year, with a net loss. The polysilicon price may be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the PS2507 contract [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project in Shaanxi is under environmental assessment. The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Jiuwu Hi - tech and Zhongke Chun cui signed a strategic cooperation agreement. Lithium prices may stabilize in the short term, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the medium - term [47][48]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some lead alloy smelting enterprises have reduced production by 30%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions [50]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Zhuzhou Smelter Group's zinc production in 2024 was 642,500 tons, and Luoping Zinc & Electricity plans to produce 80,000 tons of zinc ingots in 2025 [51][52]. - Zinc prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [53]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has adjusted the nickel ore royalty. Nickel prices may be supported, and it is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low prices [54][56]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price of LPG in Shandong decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to policy trends and reduce risk exposure [57][58]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased slightly. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [59][60]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The long - term impact of tariffs on the textile and clothing industry is negative [61][62]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply has increased, and the demand is fair. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. It is recommended to wait and see due to the macro - impact [64][66]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder is slightly weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and domestic stimulus policies [67]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene enterprise inventories decreased. The potential impact on demand may not be fully priced in, and the valuation has room to decline [68][70]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea enterprise inventories increased. The market is affected by supply and demand, and the 05 contract may be under pressure [71][72]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. With the increase in supply and the possible decline in photovoltaic glass production, it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [73]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. The near - month contract may be under pressure, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [74].

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年4月16日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 张跃 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3170 | 3170 | O | 13 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | O | ਕਤੇ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | ਰੇਤੋ | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3049 | 3047 | 2 | 121 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3125 | 3126 | -1 | ਕੇਟੇ | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3157 | 3157 | 0 | 13 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | -14 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3240 | -10 | -34 | | | 热卷现货(华 ...

①产量方面：一季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石产量为6980万吨，环比减少19%，同比减少10%。 ②发运方面：一季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石发运量为7070万吨，环比减少17%，同比减少9%。 力拓2025年一季度皮尔巴拉铁矿石产量6980万吨，同比下降10% 金十期货4月16日讯，力拓（Rio Tinto）发布2025年一季度产销报告。 ③此外，一季度加拿大铁矿石公司（IOC）的球团精粉总产量230万吨，环比减少9%，同比减少11%（力拓权益 部分）。 | Rio Tinto share of shipments (Million | Q1 | vs Q1 | vs Q4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | tonnes) | 2025 | 2024 | 2024 | | Pilbara Blend Lump | 9.8 | -24% | -25% | | Pilbara Blend Fines | 18.8 | -19% | -19% | | Robe Valley Lump | 1.2 | -5% | -23% | | Robe Valley Fines | 2.2 | -24% | -27% ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月15日 | | | 目敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3170 | 3160 | 10 | 13 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3190 | 10 | 43 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3260 | 3250 | 10 | 103 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3047 | 3050 | -3 | 123 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3126 | 3131 | -2 | 44 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3157 | 3164 | -7 | 13 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3260 | 3250 | 10 | -11 | 元/旧屯 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3240 | 3230 | 10 | -31 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...