铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：原料利润再分配，矿价承压下修 | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 | | 当周值 | 环 比 | 同 | 比 | | 29W2025 | 29W2024 | 累计同比 | 累计同比% | | | 全球发货量 | 3109 | 1 . | 122 0 . | 199 | 0 . | 全球发货 | 87478 | 87277.8 | 200.2 | 0.2% | | | 澳发货量 | 1571 | 2 . | -116 7 . | -102 | 4 . | 澳发货 | 51047.9 | 51683.3 | -635.4 | -1.2% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term commodity sentiment is being extremely interpreted, and attention should be paid to the possible inflection point of the sentiment. As an important meeting in July is approaching, the iron ore price is expected to turn into a volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of the black sector and the macro - economic realization. The iron ore price increase is due to the domestic commodity policy expectations and the profit space given by downstream industries under the condition of a not - bad short - term supply - demand situation. After the coking coal becomes overly strong, it squeezes the iron ore price, resulting in a decline in the iron ore price after the continuous sharp rise of coking coal this week [11][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.068 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 16.294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.089 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.436 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.135 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.226 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.021 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.909 million tons [13]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week increase of 3.47 percentage points [13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 143.9568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1417 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0943 million tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 126 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 3 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 7 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 80 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 30 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week change of + 3.47 percentage points; the PB powder import profit was - 4.74 yuan/wet ton [28]. - Freight: Information about international Baltic dry bulk shipping index and freight rates per country is presented in the figures but no summary data is given in the text. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 137.9038 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0517 million tons. The pellet inventory was 390,290 tons, a week - on - week change of - 29,060 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1.0815 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 950 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.6825 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 87,250 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 61.9325 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.7543 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 47.786 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.5763 million tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.88522 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.06306 million tons [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 13.854 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.015 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.078 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.974 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment volume to China was 4.571 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.514 million tons. BHP's shipment volume to China was 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.755 million tons. Vale's shipment volume was 6.856 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.677 million tons. FMG's shipment volume to China was 2.79 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.79 million tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.909 million tons. The non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore import volume in China in June was 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.6103 million tons [59]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.51%, a week - on - week change of + 0.57 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 48,030 tons, a week - on - week change of + 450 tons [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a week - on - week change of - 0.08 percentage points [70]. - Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1515 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0759 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 3.011 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0015 million tons [73]. 3.6 Basis - As of July 25, the calculated iron ore IOC6 basis was 46.13 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.44% [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated widely at a high level, and market divergence increased at the phased high. The iron ore price has risen by about 15% from the bottom, and market expectations have improved rapidly. The current valuation has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and the market is optimistic. It is expected that iron ore prices will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The trading strategies are as follows: for single - side trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Price Trend and Market Expectations**: Iron ore prices fluctuated widely at a high level this week, and market divergence increased at the phased high. The price has risen by about 15% from the bottom, and market expectations have improved rapidly [3]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: The shipments of mainstream mines have entered the seasonal off - season, with no significant increase expected. Last week, the shipments of non - mainstream mines rebounded significantly on a week - on - week basis. In July, it is expected to continue the high - shipment level of June, but the overall impact on supply pressure is not significant [3]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: In June, the real estate was still at the bottom, infrastructure investment weakened on a month - on - month basis, and the demand for construction steel remained low. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in June was 5.1%, showing a rapid decline on a month - on - month basis, which may be related to the high proportion of pre - used equipment renewal funds. However, it is still the main supporting factor in fixed - asset investment. Although the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry has slowed down, its resilience is expected to continue [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Ore Shipment - **Global Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment has entered the seasonal off - season. This week, the global shipment volume was 31.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.99 million tons. Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2% (2 million tons) [7][9]. - **Australia and Brazil Shipment**: The total shipment of Australia and Brazil this week was 24.79 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.97 million tons. The shipment of Australian mines decreased on a week - on - week basis, while that of Brazilian mines increased. Since 2025, the weekly average shipment of Australian mines has been 17.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% (6.4 million tons), and that of Brazilian mines has been 7.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% (7.8 million tons) [7][9]. - **Non - Australia and Brazil Shipment**: The non - Australia and Brazil shipment this week was 6.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.41 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.03 million tons. Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australia and Brazil mines has been 5.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% (0.6 million tons) [7][12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Last week, the port inventory of imported iron ore was basically flat on a week - on - week basis, with a slight increase in the number of ships waiting at ports. The total inventory of iron ore in steel mills increased relatively quickly on a week - on - week basis, resulting in a 1.76 - million - ton increase in the total inventory of imported iron ore in China on a week - on - week basis. Since the beginning of the year, the inventory of imported iron ore ports in China has decreased by more than 10 million tons [21][23]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Pressure**: With the high - level demand for steel in the manufacturing industry and the high - level operation of hot metal production year - on - year, although the demand for steel in China will enter the seasonal off - season in the third quarter and decline on a month - on - month basis, it is expected to continue to increase year - on - year. The current total inventory of imported iron ore is at a moderately high level, and the inventory pressure is not significant [23]. 3.2.3 Terminal Demand - **Overall Demand Indicators**: Since 2025, China's hot metal production has increased by 3.1% (14.9 million tons) year - on - year, and crude steel production has increased by 1.4% (8.3 million tons) year - on - year (after correction). The apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 3.9% (9.5 million tons) year - on - year, while the apparent demand for non - building materials has increased by 5.7% (15.3 million tons) year - on - year. China's crude steel consumption has increased by 1.2% (6 million tons) year - on - year (excluding exports) [28]. - **Industry - Specific Demand**: In June, the real estate was still at the bottom, infrastructure investment weakened on a month - on - month basis, and the demand for construction steel remained low. The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in June was 5.1%, showing a rapid decline on a month - on - month basis, but it is still the main supporting factor in fixed - asset investment. The growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry has slowed down, but its resilience is expected to continue [28]. 3.3 Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 Imported Iron Ore Port Price and Profit - **Port Price**: The report provides price data of 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder price, Qingdao Port lump ore price, etc., as well as the spread between high - and low - grade powder ores and the relationship with steel mill profits [35]. - **Port Profit**: It shows the import profits of PB powder, lump ore, Super Special powder, Jinbuba, etc. [37]. 3.3.2 Steel Mill Profit - **East China Steel Mill Profit**: The profits of mainstream steel mills in East China have rebounded from the bottom, including cash profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, iron - making costs, electric - furnace costs, etc. [39]. 3.3.3 Internal and External Market Dollar Spread - **Dollar Spread Indicators**: It includes the spread between SGX main contract and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the iron ore basis rate [42]. 3.3.4 Scrap Steel Consumption and Arrival - **Scrap Steel Data**: This week, the total daily consumption of 255 scrap steel was 518,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,000 tons and a year - on - week increase of 62,000 tons. The data of arrival, consumption, and inventory of scrap steel in different steel mills are also provided [44]. 3.3.5 Iron Ore Basis and Spread - **Basis and Spread Characteristics**: Iron ore shows a weak basis for the main contract and a weak backwardation for the far - month contract, and relevant basis and spread data are provided [45][46]. 3.3.6 Domestic Iron Concentrate Production, Demand, and Inventory - **Production and Demand Data**: It includes domestic iron concentrate production, production in North China, production and inventory of 363 mines, and apparent demand for imported iron ore and domestic iron ore [48].

交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式： kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 静待铁水回落 观点小结 铁矿石 解析 铁矿周报 2025/7/23 作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 库存 45港库存环比增19.24万吨，贸易矿占比65.7%。钢厂进口矿总库存减157.48万吨，厂库增16万吨，海漂+港口减174万吨；进口矿可用 天数增长1天至20天。 钢厂利润 成材利润继续走弱；唐山废铁价差走低；块矿入炉比大幅走高，球团入炉比上行；烧结入炉比下滑。 折扣&汇率 7月MA指数均值为100，对应盘面估值约为788。 品种间差异 金巴布粉溢价继续回升；主流中低品溢价稳定；内外矿价差回落。 天气 巴西降水稀少 巴西天气：北部降水回落，其他地区降水稀少 周度评述 供应端全球发运量企稳回升，澳洲发运企稳，巴西发运偏高，非主流地区发运低位企稳，到港量开始回升。需求端铁水再度增长，成 材利润下滑，废铁价差下滑，247样本日均铁水环比+2.63万吨至242.44万吨，7月的月均铁水约241万吨，近期钢厂高炉复产与检修持 平， ...

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in global shipments and a decrease in port arrivals, while steel mills maintain high production levels and profitability, indicating a resilient demand despite seasonal trends [7]. Supply - Global shipments of iron ore increased to 31.09 million tons, up by 1.22 million tons week-on-week, while port arrivals decreased to 23.71 million tons, down by 2.91 million tons [5]. - Monthly national imports reached 105.948 million tons, an increase of 7.82 million tons compared to the previous month [5]. Demand - Daily iron water production averaged 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 83.46%, up by 0.31% [4]. - The profitability of steel mills stands at 60.17%, reflecting a 0.43% increase, indicating strong financial performance [4]. Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight increase, with total inventory at 137.9038 million tons, up by 51,700 tons week-on-week [6]. - The average daily dispatch volume from ports decreased to 3.1515 million tons, down by 75,900 tons [6]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory rose to 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 630,600 tons [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to maintain high production levels in July, averaging around 2.4 million tons per day, supported by improved steel mill profitability [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, which may influence supply-side dynamics [7]. - Short-term iron ore prices are anticipated to fluctuate, with recommendations for traders to gradually take profits on long positions and consider arbitrage strategies [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but offers investment suggestions for different asset classes and sectors: - Stocks: Short - term cautious long [2][3] - Bonds: Short - term high - level oscillatory correction, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Commodities: - Black metals: Short - term volatile increase, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term oscillatory rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious long [2] Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and the US economic growth accelerated due to better - than - expected PMI and employment data, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, although the economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the ten - industry growth - stabilizing policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes and sectors have different trends and investment suggestions based on their fundamentals and policy impacts. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Global situation**: The European Central Bank's decision, the EU's anti - tariff plan, and the easing of global trade tensions, along with the better - than - expected US economic data, have led to a rise in global risk appetite. The US dollar index rebounded [2]. - **Domestic situation**: The first - half economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Asset performance**: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term; bonds to correct at a high level; black metals to be volatile; non - ferrous metals to rebound; energy and chemicals to oscillate; precious metals to oscillate at a high level [2]. Stocks - Driven by sectors such as Hainan concept, energy metals, and rare earth permanent magnets, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was oscillating strongly on Thursday. The supply contraction expectation of coking coal supported the steel market. The real - world demand was weak, and the production and consumption of five major steel products decreased. The supply may be restricted around the 9.3 parade. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [4]. - **Iron ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly on Thursday, while the futures price continued to weaken. The pig iron production is at a high level but has limited upward space. The global iron ore shipment increased, but the shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [4]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese decreased on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys was weak due to the decline in steel production. The prices of raw materials such as manganese ore and coal were strong. The steel tender price increased. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The EU and the US are approaching a tariff agreement. The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan has boosted sentiment. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The import of scrap aluminum decreased. The fundamentals are weak, but the policy has boosted sentiment. The price increase is limited [11]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but has limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space will be restricted in the medium term [12]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate increased significantly on Thursday. Supply disruptions and policy sentiment support the price, which is expected to be oscillating strongly [13]. - **Industrial silicon**: The price of industrial silicon decreased slightly on Thursday. The "anti - involution" sentiment has an impact, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon increased significantly on Thursday. The margin requirements have been adjusted. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The EU and the US are close to a tariff agreement, but the resumption of Chevron's production in Venezuela may increase supply. The oil price is expected to be bearish in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is stable after a correction. The inventory de - stocking has stagnated, and the demand in the peak season is average. The price is expected to follow the crude oil price in the short term, with limited upward space [16]. - **PX**: The support from the previous strong resonance of the sector has weakened. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has increased, but the spot drive is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has increased driven by the crude oil price and sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the medium term [18]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol has increased. The inventory has decreased, but the long - term supply pressure is large. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but limited in the long term [19]. - **PP**: The price of PP has adjusted slightly. The policy expectation is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in the long term [20]. - **PL**: The price of propylene is stable. The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [20]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE has adjusted. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price may rebound in the short term but has a downward trend in the long term [21]. - **Urea**: The price of urea is in a stalemate. The demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybean price increased. The US soybean export sales were lower than expected [24]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: The soybean meal is expected to be strong in the short term and may correct significantly in mid - to - late August. The cost - driven force is not strong, and the futures price increase is limited [24]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is weak. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the soybean and rapeseed oil market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may increase [25]. - **Palm oil**: The palm oil market is in a short - term bull market, but the upward resistance is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the selling pressure may increase [25]. - **Pigs**: The pig supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, and the price increase is limited. The futures contract profit is high, and it is a suitable time for selling hedging [26]. - **Corn**: Corn is in the supply - demand off - season from late July to August. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly. The weather may affect the price in mid - to - late September [26][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products continue to be strong. The cost side provides significant support for steel prices. With low inventory levels and supply - demand stimuli, the futures market is expected to strengthen. The market should focus on policy signals, terminal demand repair, and cost support [3]. - The short - term price fluctuations of various commodities are mainly driven by market sentiment and expectations. It is difficult to determine if the prices have reached a short - term peak. Speculators should be rational, and industrial players can consider hedging [9][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.610%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2995 tons, and the main contract open interest decreased by 16348 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai changed differently. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3456 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.523%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 296 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 12461 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai also had different changes [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side supports steel prices. In the short term, supply - demand factors and low inventory levels are expected to drive the market up. The demand for rebar increased slightly this week, and inventory decreased, while the demand for hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The inventories of both are at a five - year low. The market should pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 811.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00), and the open interest decreased by 17104 lots to 56.28 million lots. The weighted open interest was 103.95 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 29.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.46% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Analysis**: Recent overseas iron ore shipments rebounded, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average molten iron output was high but decreased slightly. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand and supply changes [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.17% at 5948 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5860 yuan/ton, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.34% at 5754 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount of 54 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: The long - term fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are bearish, but short - term price fluctuations are dominated by market sentiment. It is recommended that speculators be rational, and industrial players can consider hedging [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 24, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 1.73% at 9690 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased, with different basis relationships [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Industrial silicon still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. The short - term price may be affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of a short - term peak [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China changed differently. The total inventory of national float glass decreased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to avoid short positions. In the long term, the price trend depends on real estate policies and supply - demand balance [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but the medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction remains. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment cools down [16].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an iron ore morning report from the Black Team of the Research Center on July 25, 2025, with data sourced from MYSTEEL [1] Group 2: Spot Market Data - **Australian mainstream iron ore**: Newman powder is priced at 783, unchanged daily and up 22 weekly; PB powder is at 790, up 2 daily and 25 weekly; Mac powder is at 770, unchanged daily and up 27 weekly; Jinbuba is at 757, up 2 daily and 21 weekly; the mainstream mixed powder is at 725, unchanged daily and up 34 weekly; Super Special powder is at 663, down 3 daily and up 15 weekly; Carajás powder is at 888, unchanged daily and up 21 weekly; Roy Hill powder is at 760, up 2 daily and 25 weekly; KUMBA powder is at 850, up 2 daily and 25 weekly [1] - **Brazilian mainstream iron ore**: Brazilian mixed ore is at 817, down 3 daily and up 18 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is at 780, up 2 daily and 38 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is at 785, up 2 daily and 38 weekly [1] - **Other iron ore**: Ukrainian concentrate is at 878, up 1 daily and 31 weekly; 61% Indian powder is at 746, up 2 daily and 21 weekly; Karara concentrate is at 878, up 1 daily and 31 weekly; 57% Indian powder is at 618, down 3 daily and up 15 weekly; Atlas powder is at 720, unchanged daily and up 34 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate is at 939, unchanged daily and up 45 weekly [1] Group 3: Futures Market Data - **DCE contracts**: i2601 is at 783.5, down 0.5 daily and up 31 weekly; i2605 is at 762.5, unchanged daily and up 31.5 weekly; i2509 is at 811, down 1 daily and up 25.5 weekly [1] - **SGX contracts**: FE01 is at 102.84, down 0.73 daily and up 3.59 weekly; FE05 is at 100.62, down 0.73 daily and up 3.02 weekly; FE09 is at 104.52, down 0.92 daily and up 4.35 weekly [1] Group 4: Other Data - **Platts 62% index**: The latest value is 104, down 0.85 daily and up 4.9 weekly [1] - **Import profit**: Newman powder is -36.2; PB powder is -9.76; Mac powder is -11.76; Jinbuba is -5.13; the mainstream mixed powder is 7.46; Super Special powder is -13.44; Carajás powder is -27.04; Brazilian mixed ore is -8.7; Roy Hill powder is -5.43 [1] - **Monthly spread**: For i2601 - i2605, the latest value is 27.5, down 0.3 daily and 8.1 weekly; for i2605 - i2509, it is 21, down 0.8 daily and 8.6 weekly; for i2509 - i2601, it is -48.5, up 0.2 daily and down 2.6 weekly [1] - **Base/Internal - external spread**: Data is presented in RMB terms [1] - **Ukrainian pellet/pellet premium** and **PB lump/lump premium**: Data is presented graphically [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar have increased, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. Coupled with the cost support from strong raw materials, it is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level. Attention should be paid to policy changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.35%, the volume decreased and the open interest increased. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the fundamentals have weakened again, and the inventory has slightly increased. However, the overall contradictions are not significant, and the strong raw materials have boosted market sentiment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, in the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable, and the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The State Administration for Market Regulation is focusing on rectifying the "involution - style" competition in the quality field. It has exposed a number of typical cases of illegal competition in the quality field. These malicious competition behaviors have led to a decline in overall product quality, directly affecting consumer rights and damaging the long - term healthy development of the industry [6]. - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 978,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 11.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 960,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 14.24 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13%. For new energy vehicles, the retail sales of the national passenger car new energy market were 537,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 54.9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.006 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers' new energy vehicles was 514,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 12%. The wholesale penetration rate was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 6.962 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36% [7]. - In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.41 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.141 million tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 2.1%; 19.44 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 194,400 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 0.6%; and 20.8 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 208,000 tons, a daily - output month - on - month increase of 4.6% [8]. Spot Market - The spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was 3,350 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,340 yuan, and the national average price was 3,442 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3,470 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,410 yuan, and the national average price was 3,489 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 3,110 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan. The volume - to - rebar price difference was 120 yuan, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference was 1,210 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port) was 786 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was 748 yuan, the Australian sea freight was 9.87 yuan, the Brazilian sea freight was 23.59 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) was 99.85 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.00 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,294 yuan, with a change rate of 0.34%, the highest price was 3,330 yuan, the lowest price was 3,249 yuan, the trading volume was 2,533,253 lots, the volume difference was - 314,207 lots, the open interest was 1,906,352 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 16,346 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,456 yuan, with a change rate of 0.35%, the highest price was 3,484 yuan, the lowest price was 3,406 yuan, the trading volume was 852,865 lots, the volume difference was - 233,709 lots, the open interest was 1,507,782 lots, and the open - interest difference was 12,461 lots [11]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 811.0 yuan, with a change rate of - 0.55%, the highest price was 822.5 yuan, the lowest price was 803.5 yuan, the trading volume was 398,654 lots, the volume difference was - 86,357 lots, the open interest was 562,835 lots, and the open - interest difference was - 17,104 lots [11]. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventories, domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventories, and steel - mill production - related charts such as blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills [13][18][29] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 29,000 tons month - on - month, and the demand improved with a week - on - week increase in weekly apparent demand of 104,100 tons. However, both supply and demand are still at relatively low levels in recent years, and the sustainability of demand improvement is weak. It is expected that the rebar price will continue to operate at a high level, and attention should be paid to policy changes [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output decreased by 36,500 tons month - on - month, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 85,500 tons. Although the high - frequency trading volume is acceptable, the external risks may ferment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [34]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has improved. The terminal consumption of iron ore has increased, and the supply has decreased. The optimistic sentiment has weakened, and the over - valued iron ore price has declined. However, the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to a high - level oscillating adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [35].

近期，瑞银发布系列研究报告，聚焦中国铁矿石、煤炭、锂三大周期行业，剖析价格驱动逻辑与投资机 会。从铁矿石因重大基建利好上涨，到煤炭行业迎来产能核查，再到锂矿权整治引发供应担忧，三大板 块均呈现鲜明的基本面变化。 铁矿石：水电站建设成催化剂，价格逆势走强 7 月22日数据显示，62%品位铁矿石青岛到岸价(CFR)报103美元/干吨，较前一日上涨2.7%。这一涨势主 要受两大因素驱动：一是中国宣布启动全球最大水电站建设，拉动钢材需求预期；二是国内钢厂利润率 保持坚挺，对铁矿石采购积极性不减。 锂：矿权整治引发供应担忧，价格有望冲击百万关口 中国GFEX碳酸锂期货9月合约近期表现抢眼，7月22日报72.8万元/吨，较一个月前的低点上涨25%，核 心驱动力是市场对供应中断的担忧。近期行业接连出现扰动：8家锂云母矿企被要求重新完善锂资源开 采文件，藏格矿业（000408）因矿权问题被当地自然资源局要求暂停锂生产，江特电机（002176）因潜 在股权变动停牌。 瑞银指出，这一系列事件源于中央对锂矿权的全面核查。合规要求包括：采矿许可证必须明确包含锂资 源、产量不得超过批准产能、若锂为主要产品需由自然资源部核发许可证、足额 ...