AI 重塑 Capex 预期，国产链迎来新起点 20251128 摘要 AI 驱动半导体行业迎来新增长机遇，存储和逻辑领域成长空间扩大，与 以往国产替代逻辑有所不同，外资对中国大陆半导体设备板块持仓占比 明显提升，反映出对中国半导体建设需求及龙头公司成长预期较高，截 至今年第三季度，北上资金对半导体设备持仓市值达到 66,070 亿元。 美股半导体设备公司近期表现亮眼，预示全球对下游需求端更乐观。设 备赛道成长来自技术升级和产能扩张，存储设备占比显著提升，成为推 动设备公司成长的重要动力。存储领域占比从以往的 30%-40%提升， 预示着该领域将强力推动未来整体设备公司的成长。 先进逻辑部分需求呈现区域性变化，中国大陆占比下降，中国台湾地区 需求增加，主要受益于 AI 需求提升。高端存储（HBM、服务器 DDR5/DDR6 等）扩展需求以及先进逻辑工艺节点变迁带来增长机会， 市场预期乐观。 全球资本开支预计将从 2025 年的 1,000 亿美元增长到 2028 年的 1,380 亿美元，12 寸晶圆厂投资显著。存储比例提高，从 30%增至 36%，逻辑部分占 46%。台积电在其中占据优势地位，应重点关注其 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has boosted crude oil prices, with WTI crude futures closing up 0.71% and Brent oil futures up 1.09% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical developments, including ongoing negotiations regarding a peace plan between Ukraine and the U.S., are influencing market sentiment, although the Russian response remains cautious [6]. - In the chemical sector, the supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is limited, maintaining high prices, while demand in the automotive and air conditioning sectors is expected to grow [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut is expected to support crude oil prices, despite a weak demand outlook in the U.S. and China [6]. - The report notes that the oil price may experience volatility in the short term, but long-term trends will be influenced by fundamental supply and demand dynamics, particularly with OPEC+ production increases [7]. Fluorochemicals - The report indicates that the supply of second-generation refrigerants is decreasing due to policy restrictions, while third-generation refrigerants have limited production quotas [6]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to improve, driven by government incentives and a recovery in air conditioning production [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market fundamentals, suggesting potential for further price increases [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of domestic nano-spherical cerium oxide polishing slurry as a critical technology for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, highlighting its potential in the high-end CMP materials market and the challenges faced in achieving mass production and market acceptance [3][15]. Group 1: Domestic Market and Application Demand Analysis - The demand for high-end spherical cerium oxide polishing slurry in China's advanced storage chip manufacturing is estimated to reach approximately 1.7 billion RMB annually, with growth expected as the number of layers in 3D NAND chips increases [5]. - Key technical requirements from downstream wafer manufacturers include a polishing rate greater than 3000 Å/min, a selectivity ratio of SiO₂ to SiN exceeding 30:1, a surface defect rate near zero, and uniformity in removal rate of less than 3% across the wafer [6][7]. Group 2: Domestic Technical Breakthroughs and Core Challenges - Leading domestic companies have adopted solid-state and liquid-state methods as mainstream technical routes, achieving significant progress in laboratory and pilot stages, with the ability to produce spherical cerium oxide particles with a diameter of 10 to 200 nanometers and a sphericity above 95% [9]. - Domestic nano-spherical cerium oxide polishing slurries have shown comparable performance to international benchmarks like Fujifilm in key metrics such as polishing rate and selectivity, with some products demonstrating unique advantages in dispersion stability and defect control [11]. - Three main challenges remain for industrialization: achieving consistency in mass production, navigating lengthy certification cycles that can last 1 to 2 years, and managing high costs before achieving economies of scale [12]. Group 3: Case Study of Domestic Pioneers - Hunan Huirui Material Technology Co., Ltd. exemplifies domestic advancements in nano-spherical cerium oxide polishing slurry, utilizing an optimized solid-state synthesis system to achieve tunable particle sizes between 10-150 nm with a PDI of less than 0.1 [14]. - The company claims its unique polymer modification technology enhances dispersion stability, allowing the polishing slurry to remain stable for over 12 months without significant sedimentation [14]. - Initial testing at a mainstream wafer fab's 8-inch production line indicates that its product achieves a SiO₂ to SiN selectivity ratio exceeding 40:1, demonstrating potential to replace imported products [14]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Outlook - The domestic nano-spherical cerium oxide polishing slurry is on a fast track from technological development to industrial application, with foundational technologies established and market opportunities emerging [16]. - Success will depend not only on meeting technical standards but also on gaining trust and orders from downstream customers, necessitating collaborative innovation between material companies and wafer manufacturers [16].

Core Insights - Silicon carbide (SiC) is gaining attention as a next-generation power semiconductor material that can replace silicon (Si) for high-temperature and high-pressure applications [1] - The upcoming International Conference on Silicon Carbide and Related Materials (ICSCRM 2025) is expected to highlight trends in SiC development and global competition, particularly involving Japan [1] Group 1: Challenges in SiC Production - Device manufacturers face significant challenges in improving the yield of 8-inch production lines, necessitating the establishment of high-yield processes compatible with multiple suppliers [2] - Wafer manufacturers are tasked with reducing the costs of 12-inch wafers and developing evaluation technologies that have not kept pace with the rapid commercialization of these wafers [2] Group 2: China's Advancements in SiC - Chinese manufacturers have made remarkable progress in reducing the price and improving the quality of SiC wafers, with quality now comparable to high-reliability components [3] - The rapid rise of Chinese manufacturers is attributed to unconventional manufacturing methods and significant government support, alongside lower electricity costs compared to Japan [3] Group 3: Weaknesses in China's SiC Ecosystem - Despite high-quality wafers, China's lack of coordination across the supply chain may hinder its ability to dominate the entire SiC ecosystem, as many companies focus on specific segments [4] - The unclear demand from device manufacturers raises concerns about the final quality of devices made from Chinese wafers, which may exhibit slight crystal misalignment affecting yield [5] Group 4: Japan's Position in SiC - Japan maintains a high level of research and technology in SiC, with significant contributions expected at ICSCRM 2025, although its commercial influence has declined [6] - The Japanese industry faces challenges related to generational turnover and a shortage of young talent, impacting the research environment for SiC [6] - Japan's strength lies in its comprehensive capabilities, leveraging expertise from silicon to SiC applications, particularly in high-voltage applications and data center power supplies [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of new materials in the context of global technological competition and industrial chain restructuring, highlighting the need for domestic innovation to reduce reliance on foreign technologies [2][4]. Semiconductor Wafer Manufacturing Materials - The global photoresist market is projected to reach approximately $15 billion by 2030, with a current domestic market size of about 12 billion RMB, indicating significant growth potential [7]. - The domestic photoresist localization rate is around 10%, with high-end products heavily reliant on imports [7]. - Major foreign players in the photoresist market include Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, Dow Chemical, and Sumitomo Chemical, which dominate the market shares [8]. - Domestic companies such as Beijing Kehua and Suzhou Ruihong are making strides in production, but high-end products still face challenges [9]. Advanced Packaging Materials - The global market for high-performance epoxy encapsulants is expected to grow to $3.5 billion by 2030, with a current domestic market size of 4 billion RMB [39]. - The localization rate for epoxy encapsulants is around 30%, with high-end products still dependent on imports [39]. - Key foreign companies include Sumitomo Bakelite and Henkel, while domestic players include Hengshuo Huawai and Jiangsu Zhongpeng New Materials [40]. Semiconductor Components - The global market for electrostatic chucks is projected to reach $2.5 billion by 2030, with a current domestic market size of 2 billion RMB [56]. - The localization rate for electrostatic chucks is approximately 10%, with high-end products largely dominated by foreign manufacturers [56]. - Major foreign companies include Applied Materials and Lam Research, while domestic companies are beginning to emerge [57]. Display Materials - The global OLED materials market is expected to exceed $10 billion by 2030, with a current domestic market size of about 8 billion RMB [64]. - The localization rate for OLED materials is around 20%, with high-end materials still reliant on foreign sources [65].

Core Viewpoint - Dinglong Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading platform enterprise in key innovative materials within the semiconductor manufacturing sector, focusing on CMP process materials, wafer photoresists, semiconductor display materials, and advanced packaging materials, while not currently engaging in the development of PCB substrates and copper-clad laminates related to NVIDIA's M9 materials [2] Company Focus - The company emphasizes its commitment to its core business areas and will continue to monitor technological advancements and market opportunities in the semiconductor materials industry [2] - Dinglong Co., Ltd. plans to explore potential expansions into related fields in the future, leveraging its technological reserves and R&D capabilities [2] Long-term Value Creation - The company aims to create long-term value for its investors by aligning its strategic focus with industry developments and opportunities [2]

Core Insights - Dinglong Co., Ltd. has successfully validated two high-end wafer photoresists with major domestic wafer manufacturers and has received orders for them [1] - The first phase of the Qianjiang production line has a capacity of 30 tons for KrF/ArF high-end wafer photoresists and is capable of mass production to meet current client orders [1] - By the third quarter of 2025, the company plans to have nearly 30 high-end wafer photoresists, with over 15 samples validated and more than 10 entering gallon sample testing [1] Production Capacity - The Qianjiang photoresist production base's first phase is running smoothly with an annual production capacity of 30 tons for KrF/ArF high-end wafer photoresists [1] - The second phase, which will have an annual production capacity of 300 tons for KrF/ArF high-end wafer photoresists, is nearing completion with successful equipment debugging [1] Market Strategy - The company aims to continuously enhance the production capacity of photoresist lines and validate products to accelerate the commercialization process of high-end wafer photoresists [1] - The goal is to further increase the market share of the photoresist business [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully validated two high-end wafer photoresist products with major domestic wafer manufacturers and has received orders, indicating a positive trend towards mass production and commercialization of its photoresist products [1]. Group 1: Product Development and Production Capacity - The company has established a production line capable of producing 30 tons of KrF/ArF high-end wafer photoresist annually, which is currently operational and meets client order demands [1]. - As of the third quarter of 2025, the company has nearly 30 high-end wafer photoresist products in development, with over 15 products undergoing sample validation and more than 10 products in gallon sample testing [1]. Group 2: Future Plans and Market Strategy - The second phase of the photoresist production base is nearing completion, with a planned annual production capacity of 300 tons of KrF/ArF high-end wafer photoresist, and equipment debugging is progressing smoothly [1]. - The company aims to continue enhancing production capacity and product validation to accelerate the commercialization process of high-end wafer photoresist, thereby increasing its market share in the photoresist business [1].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor underfill market is experiencing significant growth driven by the increasing demand for high reliability and miniaturization in electronic products, particularly in sectors like consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and industrial control systems [5][10][14]. Group 1: Product Definition and Scope - Semiconductor underfill is a critical material used in the packaging process, filling the gap between chips and substrates to enhance reliability under thermal and mechanical stress [4]. - The primary functions of underfill include thermal management, structural strength enhancement, and improved mechanical performance of the packaging [4]. Group 2: Industry Background and Development History - The underfill industry began in the late 1980s, evolving from basic epoxy materials to advanced formulations that address the challenges of modern semiconductor packaging [6][7]. - The market has matured significantly since the mid-2000s, with a notable expansion in applications due to the rise of smartphones and wearable devices [7]. Group 3: Current Industry Status - The demand for underfill materials is primarily driven by consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and industrial control systems, with a notable shift towards high-performance and environmentally friendly materials [10][11]. - The industry is characterized by a complex competitive landscape, with international firms dominating high-end markets while local companies are gradually increasing their market share [18][19]. Group 4: Development Trends - Future trends indicate a focus on high-performance, environmentally friendly, and intelligent materials, with significant growth potential in emerging markets such as automotive electronics and 5G communication [11][12]. - Innovations in materials and processes, including low CTE and high thermal conductivity materials, are expected to meet the stringent requirements of next-generation applications [19][20]. Group 5: Market Size and Growth Forecast - The global semiconductor underfill market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.48%, reaching USD 721 million by 2024 and exceeding USD 1.443 billion by 2031, with China expected to account for 24.72% of the global market share by 2031 [14][17]. Group 6: Regional Market Dynamics - The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China, is becoming a major growth driver, contributing 29.28% of global consumption by 2024, while high-end markets remain dominated by international players [17]. Group 7: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - The market is marked by a dichotomy of high-end monopolies and mid-to-low-end competition, with leading firms maintaining a technological edge through continuous R&D investments [18]. - Geopolitical factors and supply chain security are increasingly influencing competition, necessitating local firms to innovate and adapt to maintain market access [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the new materials industry [7]. Core Insights - The new materials sector underperformed the CSI 300 index in November 2025, with a decline of 4.03% compared to the CSI 300's decline of 2.70%, resulting in a 1.33 percentage point lag [7][11]. - The sector's trading volume was 22,734.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.55% decrease from the previous month [7]. - The semiconductor materials segment continues to show growth, with global semiconductor sales reaching $69.47 billion in September 2025, marking a 25.1% year-on-year increase [42][43]. - The report highlights significant growth in the export volume and value of industrial diamonds in October, with exports amounting to 1.39 million tons and a value of $19.7 million, representing a 16.91% year-on-year increase [51]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The new materials index's performance in November was weaker than the CSI 300, with a decline of 4.03% [11]. - Most stocks in the new materials sector experienced declines, with 113 out of 170 stocks falling [18]. - The sector's valuation decreased, with the new materials index's PE ratio at 28.96, down 6.81% from the previous month [22]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking - In October, the CPI turned from decline to growth, increasing by 0.2% year-on-year, while the PPI's decline narrowed to 2.1% [30][31]. - Basic metal prices showed mixed results in November, with copper down 0.81% and tin up 3.54% [37]. - The global semiconductor market continues to grow, with a 25.1% year-on-year increase in sales [42]. - The export of superhard materials showed a significant increase in October, with a notable rise in export value [51]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes the issuance of an action plan for the upgrade of the non-ferrous metal industry in Henan Province [1]. - The establishment of a diamond wafer factory by Diamond Foundry is highlighted as a significant development in the new materials sector [1].