Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the precision slide rail industry Core Insights - The precision slide rail industry is experiencing new opportunities due to the rapid development of industrial automation and smart manufacturing [3] - The structure of precision slide rails includes key components such as outer rail, inner rail, and functional mechanisms, which are essential for various applications [6][7] - The industry is characterized by a competitive landscape with major players like Accuride, Hettich, and domestic companies such as Haidar and Xinghui [11][15] - The domestic manufacturers are rapidly closing the technology gap with international brands, with some products even outperforming foreign counterparts [17][18] - The government’s household appliance subsidy policy is expected to drive market demand for precision slide rails, particularly in the home appliance sector [22][23] Summary by Sections Structure and Applications - Precision slide rails consist of a slide rail body and functional mechanisms, with two-section and three-section types available [6] - They are widely used in various fields, including home appliances (e.g., refrigerators, ovens), servers, and commercial equipment [5][7] Market Participants - Key players in the precision slide rail market include Accuride (USA), Hettich (Germany), and several Chinese companies like Haidar and Xinghui, which are expanding their market presence [11][15] Product Segmentation - The market for home appliance slide rails is segmented into low-end, mid-range, and high-end products, each targeting different customer needs and competitive dynamics [12][15] Technology and Domestic Progress - The technology gap between domestic manufacturers and international leaders is narrowing, with significant advancements in product performance and innovation [17][18][19] Government Policy Impact - The implementation of the household appliance subsidy policy is anticipated to stimulate demand for precision slide rails, particularly in the context of product upgrades and consumer preferences shifting towards higher quality [22][23]

Core Insights - The household appliance industry experienced a decline of 1.2% in the Shenwan household appliance index from the beginning of 2025 until June 29, ranking 26th among Shenwan industries [4][13] - The overall performance of the household appliance industry in 2024 and Q1 2025 was good, but the index showed weakness compared to the strong performance in 2024 [4][6] - Factors contributing to the weak index performance include reduced demand elasticity from national subsidies, uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies, low real market demand, and a shift in market style towards new consumption trends [4][6][12] Outlook for H2 2025 - The implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies is expected to stimulate household appliance consumption, which remains a crucial part of domestic demand [6] - China, as the largest global manufacturer and exporter of household appliances, holds significant production capacities, with 81.3% for air conditioners, 57.6% for refrigerators, and 52% for washing machines in 2023 [6] - Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America may present important opportunities for growth, while global leading companies are expected to enhance industry concentration through their advantages in design, manufacturing, and supply chains [6][8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors that still have demand under normalized national subsidy policies, such as air conditioning and kitchen small appliances [8] - Pay attention to export-oriented companies targeting emerging markets or those with overseas production capabilities to mitigate U.S. exposure [8] - Consider companies that are diversifying into new industries such as electric vehicles and robotics [8] - Look for significantly undervalued high-dividend stocks, as a shift in funding styles or rising risk aversion may create favorable market conditions [8] H1 2025 Review - The household appliance index's performance was weak, with the appliance parts sector leading with a 16.3% increase, while the white goods sector saw a decline of 4.7% [15][19] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the household appliance industry is currently at 14.3X, ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, indicating a relatively low valuation level [19][25] - The dividend yield for the household appliance industry stands at 3.7%, ranking 4th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, supported by strong cash flow [25][26] Sales and Production Trends - In the first five months of 2025, air conditioner domestic sales reached 54.236 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, while external sales were 49.25 million units, up 11.4% [31] - Refrigerator domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 14.414 million units, down 1.4% year-on-year, while external sales were 17.362 million units, up 9.2% [36] - Washing machine domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 14.925 million units, up 8.4% year-on-year, with external sales at 15.198 million units, also up 8.5% [41] - Television domestic sales for the first four months of 2025 were 11.62 million units, a slight increase of 0.2%, while external sales reached 32.35 million units, up 2% [46] Cost and Pricing Pressures - From January to July 2025, LME copper and aluminum prices increased by 4.4% and 7.1%, respectively, indicating ongoing cost pressures for appliance manufacturers [48] - The average exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the Chinese yuan remained stable at 7.17, presenting a neutral impact on companies engaged in overseas business [54] - High shipping costs continue to compress profit margins for exports, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff policies contributing to this pressure [58]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The home appliance sector is experiencing a notable performance, particularly in the white goods segment, despite a decline in government subsidies affecting valuations [2][11] - The central government announced a new subsidy plan of approximately 130 billion, boosting market confidence [2] Core Insights and Arguments - **White Goods Performance**: The white goods segment showed strong sales demand in Q2, with leading companies like Midea and Haier experiencing significant growth in installation cards [1][2] - **Subsidy Impact**: The reduction in government subsidies has had a limited impact on performance, primarily affecting sentiment rather than actual results [3][11] - **Market Dynamics**: The shift in market style has led to a transition of funds from small-cap to large-cap stocks, contributing to the recent performance of the home appliance sector [2] - **Sales Trends**: Sales of small appliances have improved since Q4 of the previous year, with notable revenue growth for leading companies like Bear and Supor during the 618 shopping festival [1][4] Segment Performance - **Major Appliances**: The white goods segment is expected to maintain strong competitiveness, with leading companies achieving double-digit profit growth in Q2 [5] - **Black Goods**: The upgrade in product structure, particularly in high-end Mini LED TVs, has led to a significant increase in average prices for leading brands [3][4] - **Small Appliances**: The competitive landscape for small appliances has improved, with profit margins showing significant recovery [1][4][9] Valuation and Dividend Insights - **Valuation Metrics**: - Gree: Valuation around 7x, dividend yield approximately 7% [6] - Midea: Valuation around 12x, dividend yield including buybacks about 6% [6] - Haier: Valuation around 10x, dividend yield between 4-5% [6] - **Market Performance**: These valuation levels are expected to support market performance for these companies [6] Future Outlook - **Market Expectations**: The probability of continued government subsidies next year is high, although the marginal effect may weaken [5] - **Export Dynamics**: Leading white goods companies derive over half of their business from overseas markets, which may offset domestic fluctuations due to subsidy reductions [7][11] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies with solid performance and elasticity, such as Hisense, Bear, and TCL, are recommended for investment [12] Additional Insights - **Competitive Landscape**: Stone Technology has emerged as a leading brand in the vacuum cleaner market, with expectations for profitability to improve in Q3 despite short-term pressures [10] - **Sector Resilience**: The home appliance sector is expected to maintain positive growth in annual or quarterly profits, even with potential short-term declines in retail sales [7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the home appliance industry, particularly focusing on the impact of national subsidy policies and sales performance during the 618 shopping festival in 2025 [1][13]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **National Subsidy Policy Outlook**: - The home appliance subsidy may end early in 2025, with funds expected to be exhausted by Q4, especially in active eastern markets, while regions like Gansu and Qinghai may be less affected [1][3]. - The continuity of the subsidy in 2026 is uncertain and will depend on the 2025 market performance; if growth is flat or minimal, the likelihood of extension decreases [1][4]. - Historical data suggests that even if the subsidy is canceled, the market size could remain around 850 billion yuan, with a potential decline of 7-8% [1][6]. 2. **Sales Performance**: - Online sales during the 2025 618 event grew by 16.6% year-on-year, while offline sales increased by 17.8%. However, the average price increase online was significantly lower than in 2024, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [1][13][14]. - Specific categories showed varied performance: cleaning appliances saw a 26% increase, while refrigerators experienced a 4.1% decline in sales [1][16]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - The home appliance industry is expected to face constraints on "involution" (excessive competition), with potential policy guidance anticipated in the latter half of 2025 [1][7]. - Local governments have flexibility in reallocating subsidy funds, which may favor regions with higher efficiency in fund usage [1][8]. 4. **Product Category Insights**: - Cleaning appliances and air conditioners are highlighted as key areas for investment due to their strong performance and growth potential [2][20]. - The kitchen appliance market is undergoing a renewal phase in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier markets remain weaker [21]. 5. **Price Trends**: - Average prices for various appliance categories showed mixed trends during the 2025 618 event, with cleaning appliances and air conditioners experiencing price declines, while washing machines saw a slight increase [24][25]. Additional Important Content - The potential for the government to issue special bonds to extend subsidies is low, as decisions are typically made with a longer-term perspective [1][8]. - The impact of the subsidy policy on major brands like Haier and Midea is significant, as they have effectively leveraged the subsidy framework to enhance market penetration [22][23]. - The exit of the subsidy policy may benefit head brands in the kitchen appliance sector, allowing them to regain competitiveness in lower-tier markets [23]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the home appliance industry's current state and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The home appliance sector is expected to underperform the CSI 300 index in the first half of 2025 due to tariff increases, fluctuations in the trade-in policy, and high base expectations for the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Home Appliance Sector Overview - As of June 13, 2025, the home appliance sector has seen a year-to-date decline of 3.16%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.37 percentage points [2]. - Key stocks showing positive performance include motorcycle and black appliance companies, such as Taotao Industry, Chunfeng Power, Ninebot, TCL Electronics, and others [2]. Group 2: White Appliance Sector - Demand differentiation between peak and off-peak seasons has increased, with a rapid recovery in Q2 2025 [3]. - China's dominance in global white appliance production remains intact, with short-term external shocks unlikely to alter long-term export growth trends [3]. - Adjustments in local subsidy policies aim to address previous imbalances and funding issues, with limited impact on annual sales expected [3]. - Emerging markets are showing stable economic growth, providing continuous incremental market opportunities for white appliance exports [3]. Group 3: Black Appliance Sector - Domestic and international demand remains robust, with significant structural upgrades towards large-size and MiniLED products [4]. - National subsidies are expected to continue driving domestic demand growth, with rapid increases in MiniLED penetration [4]. - Companies like Hisense and TCL are enhancing their overseas production capabilities, leading to expected growth in shipments and increased market share in the high-end segment [4]. Group 4: Cleaning Appliance Sector - The cleaning appliance category, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, is benefiting significantly from national subsidies, with high growth expected in 2025 [5]. - The overseas market remains in a favorable cycle, with leading companies expanding their market share [5]. - The shift in consumer perception from optional to essential for cleaning appliances indicates substantial long-term growth potential in the domestic market [5]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2025 are primarily focused on the stability of the white appliance industry and the profit improvement potential in black appliances and robotic vacuum cleaners [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of the "National Subsidy" policy during the 618 shopping festival has raised concerns and questions among consumers, attributed to either "activity upgrades" or "exhaustion of subsidy funds" [1][2]. Summary by Sections National Subsidy Situation - Various regions have reported different statuses regarding the "National Subsidy" program, with some areas like Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Dalian, Jinan, and Guangzhou having exhausted their subsidy quotas [1][3]. - In Hubei, the subsidy will continue throughout the year until December 31, with a daily limit to ensure more consumers benefit from the program [3]. - Chongqing has completed the first phase of subsidies, with the second phase under negotiation [3]. - Jiangsu has implemented quota management for subsidies, effective from June 1, with plans to continue until the end of the year [3]. - In Sichuan, the subsidy policy has shifted to "quota management," with daily limits on the issuance of subsidy vouchers [3]. Regional Responses - Guangzhou's online subsidy funds have been depleted, with expectations for a new round of funding in Q3, albeit at a reduced amount [4]. - In Ningxia, some categories have run out of vouchers, while others still have subsidies available [4]. - Jilin has temporarily paused the subsidy program due to funding coordination issues, advising consumers to wait for further updates [4]. - Zhengzhou has announced that its current round of subsidy funds has been exhausted, pausing the issuance of new vouchers [5]. - Inner Mongolia has clarified that no official announcement regarding the suspension of subsidies has been made [5]. Consumer Participation and Impact - Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that over 34 million consumers participated in the appliance replacement program from January to April, leading to sales exceeding 174.5 billion yuan [6]. - The program has significantly boosted consumer spending, with a total sales volume of 1.1 trillion yuan attributed to the subsidy initiative [6]. - The temporary pauses in certain regions are viewed as short-term adjustments rather than a complete cessation of the subsidy program, with ample time remaining for consumers to benefit from the subsidies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The "National Subsidy" policy for home appliances has faced sudden interruptions during the "618" shopping festival, leading to widespread concerns and confusion among consumers and stakeholders [3][4]. Group 1: Current Status of National Subsidy - Various regions, including Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Dalian, Jinan, and Guangzhou, have exhausted their National Subsidy quotas [2]. - In Chongqing, the subsidy page indicates that the activity is "upgrading," preventing users from claiming or using the subsidies [2]. - Hubei's subsidy program is set to continue until December 31, 2025, with a daily limit on the number of subsidies to ensure broader consumer access [5]. Group 2: Regional Responses and Adjustments - Jiangsu has implemented a quota management system for subsidies, which will be in effect until the end of the year [7]. - In Sichuan, the subsidy policy has shifted to a "quota management" phase, with daily limits on the issuance of subsidy vouchers [8]. - Guangzhou's online subsidy funds have been depleted, with expectations for a new round of subsidies in the third quarter, albeit at a reduced amount [9]. Group 3: Consumer Participation and Impact - Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that over 34 million consumers participated in the home appliance replacement program from January to April, resulting in sales exceeding 174.5 billion yuan [12]. - The National Subsidy program has not only provided financial benefits to consumers but has also stimulated overall consumption, suggesting that the likelihood of its termination is low [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension or adjustment of "national subsidies" in various regions, particularly during the ongoing "618" promotional event, has raised concerns about the impact on consumer spending and the home appliance market [1][6][9]. Group 1: Suspension of National Subsidies - Reports indicate that the "national subsidies" for home appliances have been suspended in several regions, including Chongqing and Jiangsu, due to the depletion of subsidy funds [6][9]. - In Chongqing, the subsidy for "old-for-new" home appliances has been confirmed as paused, with officials stating that the funds have been exhausted and a new policy is being drafted for the second phase of subsidies [9][12]. - Similar suspensions have been noted in Guangdong, where certain categories of subsidies are no longer available [12]. Group 2: Financial Implications and Market Reactions - Analysts from Morgan Stanley suggest that the suspension of subsidies is likely a strategic move to support pricing during the "618" sales event, as the subsidies could disrupt the pricing structure [12]. - According to Huaxi Securities, over 150 billion yuan of subsidy funds have been consumed by the end of May, with expectations that consumption will rise to 500 billion yuan in June, leading to a total of 2.1 trillion yuan consumed in the first half of the year [13]. - The current adjustments in subsidy policies are viewed as a means to control the volume of subsidies rather than an end to the program, with further funding expected to be allocated [13].

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 周专题：国补政策调整是控量而非结束，后续资金积极拨 付中 [Table_Title2] 家电行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 周专题： 国补资金消耗超预期，多地转向限额限流甚至暂停。根据奥 维云网，2025 年以来消费市场回暖与密集促销节点共振，国 补资金消耗速度超预期。截至 5 月底，全国范围内已有超 1500 亿资金被消耗，进入 6 月，叠加 618 大促、端午促销等 购物节点，预计 6 月资金消耗将攀升至 500 亿元，推动 1- 6 月累计消耗规模达 2100 亿元，占 3000 亿国补资金池的 70%。多地因资金透支开始进入国补限额模式，甚至是暂停 国补。如消费大省江苏省商务厅市场运行和消费促进处工作 人员表示，从 6 月 1 日开始，江苏"国补"线上线下都将采 取限额管理，活动将持续到年底。 关税政策波动、下游需求不及预期、行业竞争加剧、上游原材 料成本波动等风险等。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 周专题：国补政策调整是控量而非结束，后续资金积极拨 付中 [Table_Title2] 家电行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 周专题： 国补资金消耗超预期，多地转向限额限流甚至暂停。根据奥 维云网，2025 年以来消费市场回暖与密集促销节点共振，国 补资金消耗速度超预期。截至 5 月底，全国范围内已有超 1500 亿资金被消耗，进入 6 月，叠加 618 大促、端午促销等 购物节点，预计 6 月资金消耗将攀升至 500 亿元，推动 1- 6 月累计消耗规模达 2100 亿元，占 3000 亿国补资金池的 70%。多地因资金透支开始进入国补限额模式，甚至是暂停 国补。如消费大省江苏省商务厅市场运行和消费促进处工作 人员表示，从 6 月 1 日开始，江苏"国补"线上线下都将采 取限额管理，活动将持续到年底。 国补政策调整是控量而非结束，后续资金积极拨付中。根据 中国能源网，发改委于 1.6、4.28 各下发两笔 810 亿消费品 换新资金，剩余 1400 亿资金等待下发，考虑到地方配套 ...