证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 家电行业 2026 年 3 月投资策略 优于大市 2026 年以来大家电需求回暖，美关税降低有利家电出口 本月跟踪与思考：2026 年以来我国家电零售需求回暖，大家电零售额降幅明 显收窄；3 月白电排产降幅同样收窄。美国家电零售额延续稳健增长，家电 库存有所增加，叠加美国关税下降。家电内外销基本面有望企稳改善。 开年以来大家电零售需求回暖，以旧换新政策成效显现。据奥维云网数据显 示，2026 年前 8 周（2025/12/29- 2026/2/22），空调线上线下零售额同比 分别为-32.5%/-14.4%，冰箱线上线下同比-3.0%/-8.0%，洗衣机线上线下同 比+0.5%/-11.4%；油烟机线上线下零售额同比+6.6%/-18.9%，洗碗机线上线 下同比+21.8%/-4.4%；电饭煲线上线下同比-10.4%/-16.5%，空气炸锅线上 线下同比+11.5%/-6.4%；扫地机线上线下同比-12.5%/+3.5%，洗地机线上线 下-7.9%/+11.7%。除空调由于春节期间天气较暖影响零售额依然有一定下滑 外，大家电零售额降幅普遍收窄，冰洗、烟机、洗碗机等零售 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2026 年 3 月 2 日 江海证券研究发展部 分析师：黄燕芝 执业证书编号：S1410525120001 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 0.92 -2.19 -11.98 绝对收益 1.02 0.74 9.11 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-家用电器行 业：2026 年首批超长期特别国债资金提前 下达，空调龙头企业宣布提价 – 2026.01.14 2. 江海证券-行业点评报告-家用电器行 业："两新"政策优化及延续，11 月家用 空调内外销数据出炉 – 2025.12.29 3. 江海证券-行业点评报告-家用电器行 业：12 月白电排产数据公布，家用空调行 业短期调整，10 月洗衣机出口表现亮眼 – 2025.11.28 4. 江海证券-行业点评报告-家用电器行 业：10 月白电排产数据公布，8 月空调内 外销实际出货优于企业排产预期 – 2025.09.29 消费行业研究组 家用电器行业 空冰洗 3 月排产数据发布，石头科技发 布 2025 年业绩快报 事件： 投资要点： 江海证券有限公司 ...

Core Views - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook despite challenges from rising raw material prices and market competition [1][5][11]. Raw Material Price Impact - Recent increases in copper and aluminum prices have raised concerns about the profitability of leading white goods manufacturers. However, historical analysis shows that the negative impact of raw material cost increases on gross margins has diminished over time. For instance, during previous cycles from 2008 to 2022, the maximum quarterly gross margin decline for leading white goods companies was 5-7 percentage points in 2009-2011, around 5 percentage points in 2016-2017, and only about 2 percentage points in 2020-2022. The current price increases are expected to have a lesser impact, with an anticipated gross margin decline of less than 2 percentage points [1][17][18]. Production and Demand Trends - In January and February 2026, the total production of white goods in China was 23.79 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.1%. However, the cumulative production decline for the first two months is expected to be around 5%. The production performance has shown signs of recovery compared to a more than 10% decline in Q4 2025. The demand is expected to stabilize due to the effects of national subsidy policies [2][24]. Retail Market Performance - The retail market for home appliances in China is projected to decline by 4.3% in 2025, with a total retail scale of 893.1 billion yuan. Specific categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators are expected to see declines of 0.4% and 11.5%, respectively, while small kitchen appliances are expected to grow by 3.8% [2][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their performance and market position. For white goods, companies like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Home, and Hisense Home Appliances are highlighted. In the small appliance sector, Stone Technology, Bear Electric, and New Treasure are recommended. For black goods, TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual are suggested [3][12][50]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating that Midea Group is expected to have an EPS of 5.84 yuan in 2025 and 6.43 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio of 13 for 2025. Haier Smart Home is projected to have an EPS of 2.27 yuan in 2025 and 2.53 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio of 11 for 2025 [4][50].

凤凰网财经讯 1月27日，A股三大指数集体低开，沪指跌0.18%，深成指跌0.23%，创业板指跌0.09%。 有色金属、玻纤、BC电池等板块指数跌幅居前。 2026年家电国补政策调整，将聚焦核心品类与农村市场。政策覆盖大家电6个核心品类、补贴1级能效， 补贴比例为15%。首批625亿元额度提前下达，全国覆盖，重点攻坚农村市场。京东投入300亿元推 行"三免四不限"，预计新增覆盖3000-4000万农村人口，农村市场成2026年主增量场景。 中信建投：锂电通胀开始，产能刚性环节价格趋势明确，上限难以捉摸 鉴于本轮锂电周期与上轮光伏周期本质驱动力和截至目前的剧情演绎高度相似，本篇报告系统性地复盘 光伏大周期是为本轮锂电之参考，主要结论有三：1、市场多言涨价影响需求，但实际从未影响，最终 演绎的结果是量价齐升，中上游向下游电站要利润，全产业链通胀。2、产能刚性环节的价格是需求的 风向标，最终价格回落是由于产能投放而非需求萎缩。3、股价层面：底部估值抬升之后，市场可能会 对需求产生怀疑导致板块阶段性纠结，但最终因产业链量价齐升股价同步跟随，价格弹性大的环节表现 最优。 机构观点 华西证券：趋势不变，聚焦三条配置主线 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 home appliance national subsidy policy will focus on core categories and rural markets [1] - The policy will cover six core categories of major appliances, with subsidies for level 1 energy efficiency at a rate of 15% [1] - An initial budget of 62.5 billion yuan will be allocated in advance, with nationwide coverage and a focus on rural market penetration [1] Market Strategy - JD.com is investing 30 billion yuan to implement the "three exemptions and four unlimited" strategy, which is expected to add coverage for 30 to 40 million rural residents [1] - The rural market is anticipated to be the main growth area in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the adjustment of the home appliance national subsidy policy in 2026 will focus on core categories and rural markets [1] - The policy will cover six core categories of major appliances, providing subsidies for level 1 energy efficiency with a subsidy rate of 15% [1] - An initial quota of 62.5 billion yuan will be allocated in advance, covering the entire country, with a particular emphasis on rural market penetration [1] Group 2 - JD.com is investing 30 billion yuan to implement the "three exemptions and four unlimited" strategy, which is expected to add coverage for 30 to 40 million rural residents [1] - The rural market is anticipated to become the main growth area in 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6][12] Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to recover in 2026, driven by the continuation of national subsidies and improvements in export performance. It is recommended to actively invest in leading white goods companies [1][12][18] - December retail performance for home appliances showed signs of bottoming out, with major appliances experiencing a decline of over 20% in domestic retail sales, while small appliances showed slightly better demand [1][19] - The report highlights that the U.S. home appliance retail sales saw a slight increase in November, indicating a gradual return to stable growth despite challenges such as tariffs and inflation [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Core Recommendations - Key recommendations include investing in leading companies in the white goods sector such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances. For small appliances, Stone Technology and Bear Electric are recommended [4][12][13] 2. Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - December retail performance for home appliances continued to face pressure due to high base effects, with significant declines in major appliances. However, small appliances showed relative stability, particularly in air fryers [1][19] - December exports of home appliances decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, with air conditioners facing the most significant pressure, while refrigerators and washing machines showed modest growth [2][37] - U.S. home appliance retail sales increased by 0.8% year-on-year in November, with inventory levels returning to normal [3][12] 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +0.23% this week compared to the broader market [49] - Raw material prices for copper and aluminum decreased by 0.5% and 0.7% respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices also saw a decline [51] - Shipping indices for routes to the U.S. West Coast, East Coast, and Europe showed slight increases, indicating a stabilization in shipping costs [64] 4. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - Notable company announcements include Midea Group's ongoing efforts in overseas markets and Gree Electric's dividend distribution plans [71][72] - The report discusses the structural adjustments in the air conditioning export market and the anticipated trends for 2026, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the global supply chain [74]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that the home appliance industry will experience a "front high and back stable" trend in domestic demand by 2025, with a focus on volume growth in white goods and structural upgrades in black goods [1][2]. Domestic Demand - In 2025, the home appliance market is expected to show a "front high and back stable" trend driven by policy continuation and seasonal consumption [2]. - For white goods, volume growth is the main focus, with air conditioning performing better than refrigerators and washing machines in the first three quarters of 2025. The shipment growth rates for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines are projected at +8.4%, +2.4%, and +4.1% year-on-year respectively [2]. - Black goods are expected to continue structural upgrades, with Mini LED penetration reaching 33% in Q2 2025, more than doubling year-on-year. Despite a decline in growth due to subsidy reductions in Q3, Mini LED penetration remains high at 28.3% [2]. - For 2026, the continuation of national subsidies may help mitigate pressures from high baselines and overspending. The report estimates potential declines in the overall home appliance market under different subsidy scenarios, with expected declines of -4%, -5.7%, and -7.3% for "same scale subsidy," "half scale," and "no subsidy" respectively [2]. External Demand - From early 2025, home appliance export growth has slowed due to tariff policies and global supply chain adjustments, but it still shows resilience and structural highlights [3]. - The export performance of refrigerators and washing machines is better than that of air conditioners, influenced by weather factors and a high baseline from 2024 [3]. - Black goods have shown resilience, with a notable recovery in TV exports since July 2025, attributed to easing tariffs and replenishment in overseas channels [3]. - The global home appliance demand is expected to remain relatively stable in 2025, with various regional outlooks indicating neutral to negative sentiments [3]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The global narrative for black goods is shifting from "market share pursuit" to "profit and pricing power." Chinese companies are expected to leverage their integrated supply chain advantages to convert market share into profits, with recommendations for Hisense and TCL [4]. - Investment Theme 2: White goods maintain growth potential due to their historical resilience through cycles, with strong cash flow and high dividend willingness. Recommended companies include Midea Group and Haier Smart Home [4]. - Investment Theme 3: The emerging consumption sector shows significant global competitiveness, particularly in smart imaging and robotic vacuum markets, with recommendations for companies like Roborock and Ecovacs [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Iraq has restored production at the West Qurna 2 oil field, raising concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market. WTI crude futures fell by 4.33% and Brent crude futures by 4.13% during the specified period [6]. - Geopolitical tensions continue, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil prices [6]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.50% and 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [6]. - In the fluorochemical sector, the 2026 refrigerant quotas are expected to increase, with downstream demand in home appliances likely to continue due to government subsidies [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Iraq's oil production has returned to approximately 460,000 barrels per day, and U.S. refinery utilization rates have increased following seasonal maintenance [6][7]. - The report suggests that domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil and gas sources to mitigate sensitivity to international oil price fluctuations [7]. Fluorochemicals - The 2026 HFC production quota has been announced, totaling 797,845 tons, which is an increase of 5,963 tons from the previous year. Notable increases include HFC-134a by 3,242 tons and HFC-245fa by 2,918 tons [6]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to grow, supported by government policies and subsidies, particularly in the automotive sector [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the oil and petrochemical, fluorochemical, and semiconductor materials sectors. It highlights the resilience of major oil companies in the face of price volatility and suggests monitoring companies like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, companies leading in third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources are recommended for investment [7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted for its upward cycle and potential for domestic substitution, with specific companies suggested for consideration [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impending transition in the home appliance industry as the national subsidy policy is set to close, with a projected 800 billion subsidy expected to drive approximately 5% growth in the sector, promoting green and smart consumption [1][13] - The industry anticipates a more targeted subsidy approach in 2026, focusing on new and trending product categories while maintaining support for high-end energy-efficient models [1][13] - The company Vatti has proactively initiated a "three transformations" strategy (high-end, youth-oriented, and intelligent) to gain a competitive edge in this evolving market [1][13] Product Strategy - Vatti's high-end strategy is expected to be crucial as the subsidy intensity declines, potentially falling below half of the 2025 levels [3][15] - The company has successfully launched innovative products, such as the "Beauty Bath Gas Water Heater," which integrates skincare needs with bathing experiences, achieving over 32,000 units sold within two months [3][15] - Vatti's focus on integrated and intelligent kitchen appliances aligns with current consumer trends, exemplified by the FA50P steam oven, which showcases energy efficiency and multifunctionality [3][15][16] Marketing Innovations - Vatti is shifting from price competition to value competition, emphasizing brand value through diverse and youthful marketing strategies [6][18] - The company has engaged younger consumers through relatable short dramas and innovative marketing campaigns on popular platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu [6][18][19] - These marketing efforts have successfully enhanced Vatti's brand image, positioning it as a trendy kitchen appliance brand and fostering emotional connections with younger consumers [6][19][7] Operational Enhancements - The company is enhancing its offline channel advantages by transforming nearly 1,000 stores into smart showrooms, incorporating digital tools like VR and AI to improve customer experience [9][21] - Vatti's offline channel revenue reached 1.486 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 45.89%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.83% [9][21] - The company is also expanding its online presence across major e-commerce platforms, having opened over 1,000 new stores in the first half of 2025 [11][23] Sustainability and Technology - Vatti is committed to sustainability, with its rooftop photovoltaic project generating 32% of its total electricity consumption and saving 5.81 million kilowatt-hours of municipal electricity [11][23] - The company is advancing AI integration in its products, offering a smart management system that allows users to control appliances remotely via an app [11][23] - Vatti's strategic focus on value creation positions it well to navigate market fluctuations and capitalize on future growth opportunities [12][24]