东吴证券近日发布燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：天气转冷美国&欧洲气价上涨，中国供应充足气价微降，截至 2025/11/07，美国HH/欧洲TTF/东亚JKM/中国LNG出厂/中国LNG到岸价周环比变动 +4.8%/+3%/+1.2%/-0.6%/+0.2%至0.9/2.7/2.8/3/2.8元/方，海内外倒挂结束。 东吴证券近日发布燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：天气转冷美国&欧洲气价上涨，中国供应充足气价微降。截至 2025/11/07，美国HH/欧洲TTF/东亚JKM/中国LNG出厂/中国LNG到岸价周环比变动 +4.8%/+3%/+1.2%/-0.6%/+0.2%至0.9/2.7/2.8/3/2.8元/方，海内外倒挂结束。 供需分析：1）天气转冷，美国天然气市场价格周环比+4.8%。截至2025/10/31，储气量周环比+330亿立 方英尺至39150亿立方英尺，同比-0.4%。2）继续补库，欧洲气价周环比+3.0%。2025M1-7，欧洲天然 气消费量为2654亿方，同比+5%。2025/10/30~2025/11/5，欧洲天然气供给周环比+1.9%至66030GWh； 其中，来自库存消耗-2178GWh，周环比+1670 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors within the energy industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas sectors [10][30]. Core Insights - The electricity market in the State Grid operating area has achieved near-complete coverage of the electricity spot market, with significant developments in provinces such as Shanxi, which has seen a 128.75% increase in new energy and clean energy installed capacity since the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][9]. - Natural gas prices have shown a divergent trend globally, with increases in Europe and the US, while prices in Asia remain stable due to ample supply [11][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The State Grid has implemented a continuous settlement trial for the electricity spot market in Sichuan and Chongqing, marking a significant step towards full coverage [4][7]. - Shanxi's electricity spot market has recorded a total clearing volume of 156.23 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, with real-time average prices reflecting a "two peaks and one valley" pattern [9][10]. 2. Natural Gas - As of November 7, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price in the US reached $3.76/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.52%, while European prices also saw upward trends [11][12]. - The report notes that the LNG national ex-factory price in China is 4382 yuan/ton, with a slight weekly decrease of 0.57% [28][30]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Hydropower: Favorable conditions for winter and spring generation, recommending companies like Guotou Power and Chuan Investment Energy [10]. - Green Energy: Increased stability in returns for existing projects, suggesting attention to companies like New Energy and Longyuan Power [10]. - Nuclear Power: Long-term growth potential remains strong, with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [10]. - Thermal Power: Improved profitability due to lower fuel costs, recommending companies like Guodian Power and Huaneng International [10]. - Gas Sector: Favorable conditions for city gas companies, recommending Kunlun Energy and New Energy [30]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of September 2025, China's new energy storage capacity exceeded 100 million kW, accounting for over 40% of the global total [39]. - The report highlights the steady growth in electricity market transactions, with a total of 4.92 trillion kWh traded by September 2025, marking a 7.2% year-on-year increase [39].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that colder weather has led to rising gas prices in the US and Europe, while China's gas supply remains sufficient, resulting in a slight decrease in domestic gas prices [4][9] - The overall supply is adequate, and the impact of cold weather on demand is unclear, with domestic gas prices showing a week-on-week decline of 0.6% [22] - The report emphasizes the ongoing optimization of cost structures for gas companies and the continued adjustment of pricing mechanisms, which are expected to support demand growth [51] Price Tracking - As of November 7, 2025, gas prices have changed week-on-week as follows: US HH +4.8%, European TTF +3%, East Asia JKM +1.2%, China LNG ex-factory -0.6%, and China LNG CIF +0.2% [4][9] - The report notes that the price gap between domestic and international markets has ended, indicating a more balanced pricing environment [9] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the US, gas market prices increased by 4.8% week-on-week, with storage levels rising by 33 billion cubic feet to 39,150 billion cubic feet as of October 31, 2025 [15] - European gas prices rose by 3.0% week-on-week, with a total consumption of 2,654 billion cubic meters from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% [16] - Domestic gas consumption from January to September 2025 increased by 0.7% year-on-year to 318.8 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions in 2024 affecting heating demand [22][25] Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 65% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [33] - The report indicates that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in the gas distribution sector, suggesting ongoing pricing reforms [33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting key companies such as: - Xin'ao Energy (dividend yield 4.7%) - China Gas (dividend yield 5.8%) - Kunlun Energy (dividend yield 4.7%) [51][52] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [52][53]

Core Viewpoint - The "source-network-load-storage" integrated model is accelerating implementation across the country as part of the national energy structure transformation and "dual carbon" goals, with the Hengshan Science City incremental distribution pilot project by China Gas's Hengyang Zhongran Energy becoming a typical example of regional comprehensive energy service models [1][5]. Group 1: Project Overview - Hengyang Zhongran is the sole distribution and sales electricity operator in the 26.5 square kilometer pilot area of Hengshan Science City, holding exclusive rights for electricity and centralized heating [3]. - The company is responsible for the investment, construction, and operation of the incremental distribution network, extending to comprehensive energy services including photovoltaic, energy storage, charging facilities, and distributed gas energy systems [3]. - The existing infrastructure includes one 110kV substation with a capacity of 63MVA, 5.74 kilometers of 110kV overhead lines, and a total distribution transformer capacity of 99,450 kVA, supporting diverse load demands in the region [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The energy storage project associated with the 110kV substation was officially put into operation last year, achieving a key breakthrough in the storage segment with an overall efficiency of approximately 90% and annual savings of 3.3 million yuan [4]. - The system operates on a "two charge, two discharge" strategy, effectively managing peak and off-peak electricity loads, thereby enhancing grid stability and reliability [4]. Group 3: Economic and Environmental Impact - The integrated model significantly improves the grid's capacity to accept intermittent power sources like distributed photovoltaics, reducing voltage fluctuations and overload risks [5]. - Economic benefits include optimized energy dispatch strategies that balance electricity loads and control overall electricity costs, avoiding spikes due to peak pricing [5]. - The project promotes the use of digital and information technologies, advancing smart grid construction and enhancing automation and intelligent management of the grid [7]. - Environmental benefits are realized through the large-scale promotion of photovoltaic generation and storage, leading to reduced fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, supporting green and low-carbon development [7]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The project exemplifies the deep integration of incremental distribution reform and comprehensive energy services, providing a practical model for other industrial parks and new urban development areas [7]. - With the anticipated decline in costs for photovoltaics and energy storage, along with increased policy support, such integrated models are expected to be promoted in more regions [7].

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 15.6 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year [1] - In Q3, the company achieved a single-quarter revenue of 5.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%; the single-quarter net profit was 400 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year, but up 7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The LNG business showed good development, while the LPG business was impacted by extreme weather and maintenance activities, with an estimated total impact of approximately 97 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The company plans to invest up to 3.455 billion yuan in the second phase of the coal-to-gas project in Xinjiang, which is expected to produce 5.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually [2] - Upon completion, the project is anticipated to generate sales revenue of approximately 7.3 billion yuan and a total profit of about 1.5 billion yuan [2] - The company expects to accelerate the promotion of the Xinjiang coal-to-gas project and finalize the construction of the Huizhou LPG storage base to support long-term high-quality development and performance growth [2] Group 3 - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.576 billion yuan, 1.880 billion yuan, and 2.153 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The coal-to-gas layout is expected to open up medium to long-term growth opportunities for the company [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dazhong Public Utility's stock price has decreased by 11.65% this week, closing at 6.6 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 19.486 billion yuan, ranking 4th in the gas sector and 987th in the A-share market [1]. Group 1: Company Announcements - Dazhong Public Utility will participate in the collective performance briefing for listed companies in the Shanghai area on November 13, 2025, focusing on the company's operating results and financial status for the first three quarters of 2025 [1][3]. - Investors can submit questions for the performance briefing through the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center from November 6 to November 12, 2025 [1][3]. Group 2: Share Capital Information - The company's registered share capital remains unchanged, with 533,643,000 H-shares and 2,418,791,675 A-shares, totaling a registered capital of 2,952,434,675 yuan [2]. - There are no changes in the number of issued shares or treasury shares as of October 31, 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.608 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.241 billion yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, revenue was 5.180 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4%, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year. The LPG business profits were impacted by typhoons and maintenance, but significant improvement is expected in the fourth quarter due to the arrival of the natural gas peak season and the completion of tank maintenance [2][7][14]. - The company plans to invest in a coal-to-gas project in Xinjiang, which will enhance its upstream gas source layout. The project has a total investment of 23.033 billion yuan, with the company expected to contribute up to 3.455 billion yuan, aiming to secure 50% equity in the project, which will produce 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually [2][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 15.608 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.241 billion yuan, down 19.1%. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 5.180 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4%, and a net profit of 380 million yuan, down 11% year-on-year [2][7][14]. Business Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to show significant improvement due to the recovery of domestic natural gas prices and the completion of tank maintenance. The LPG business is anticipated to see a steady increase in sales, and the impact of extreme weather has ended [14]. Dividend Policy - The company has a cash dividend plan for 2024-2026, with fixed cash dividends of 750 million, 850 million, and 1 billion yuan respectively, along with a dual-layer dividend model of "fixed cash dividend + special cash dividend" [14]. Investment Projects - The company is investing in a coal-to-gas project in Xinjiang, which is expected to produce 4 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually. The project has a total investment of 23.033 billion yuan, with the company contributing up to 3.455 billion yuan [14]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 2.24 yuan, 2.60 yuan, and 3.04 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.61X, 12.60X, and 10.76X [14].

Core Points - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (470064) closed at 2289.78 points, down 0.1% with a trading volume of 24.519 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.91% [1] - Among the index constituents, 20 stocks rose while 28 stocks fell, with Jiangsu Guotai leading the gainers at a 10.01% increase and Fuan Energy leading the decliners at a 4.13% decrease [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index include: - BOE Technology Group (sz000725) with a weight of 9.31%, latest price at 4.01 yuan, and a 0.25% increase [1] - Hikvision (sz002415) with a weight of 7.97%, latest price at 31.37 yuan, and a 1.35% decrease [1] - Wuliangye Yibin (sz000858) with a weight of 7.71%, latest price at 116.75 yuan, and a 0.50% increase [1] - Luzhou Laojiao (sz000568) with a weight of 6.59%, latest price at 131.65 yuan, and a 0.19% decrease [1] - XCMG Machinery (sz000425) with a weight of 5.75%, latest price at 10.73 yuan, and a 1.01% decrease [1] - Changan Automobile (sz000625) with a weight of 3.88%, latest price at 12.26 yuan, and a 0.41% decrease [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan (sz000166) with a weight of 3.84%, latest price at 5.47 yuan, and a 0.73% decrease [1] - Yunnan Aluminum (sz000807) with a weight of 3.81%, latest price at 25.32 yuan, and a 1.28% increase [1] - Yanghe Brewery (sz002304) with a weight of 3.37%, latest price at 69.46 yuan, and a 0.90% decrease [1] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (sz000630) with a weight of 3.18%, latest price at 5.21 yuan, and a 1.33% decrease [1] Capital Flow Summary - The index constituents experienced a net outflow of 527 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 399 million yuan [3] - Notable capital flows include: - Jiangsu Guotai (002091) with a net inflow of 180 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - BOE Technology Group (000725) with a net inflow of 86.93 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Wuliangye Yibin (000858) with a net inflow of 32.59 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Blue Sky Gas announced the release and re-pledging of shares by Blue Sky Group, indicating significant changes in shareholding structure and potential implications for the company's financial health and market perception [1] Group 1: Share Pledge Information - Blue Sky Group released 5.4 million shares and pledged 7.1 million shares to China Bank, indicating active management of share collateral [1] - After these transactions, Blue Sky Group has a total of approximately 246 million shares pledged, which represents 77.51% of its total holdings and 34.46% of the company's total share capital [1] - The combined pledged shares of Blue Sky Group and Li Xinhua amount to approximately 290 million shares, accounting for 79.64% of their total holdings and 40.62% of the company's total share capital [1] Group 2: Revenue Composition - For the first half of 2025, Blue Sky Gas's revenue composition is as follows: pipeline natural gas sales account for 46.44%, urban natural gas sales for 40.58%, gas installation projects for 9.83%, other revenues for 2.4%, and natural gas transmission for 0.66% [1] Group 3: Market Capitalization - As of the report, Blue Sky Gas has a market capitalization of 6.9 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decrease in power generation for October 2025, while cumulative power generation showed an increase year-on-year [1] Group 1: Power Generation - In October 2025, the company and its subsidiaries achieved a power generation of 950,402.12 MWh, representing a year-on-year decrease of 20.97% [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative power generation reached 11,718,263.28 MWh, which is a year-on-year increase of 6.15% [1] Group 2: Gas Transmission and Sales - In October 2025, the company and its subsidiaries completed gas transmission/sales of 39,629.73 million cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.88% [1] - The gas sales volume was 35,402.96 million cubic meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.22% [1] - The gas transmission volume was 4,226.77 million cubic meters, with a year-on-year increase of 1.09% [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative gas transmission/sales volume was 427,804.05 million cubic meters, which is a year-on-year decrease of 12.72% [1] - The cumulative gas sales volume was 387,518.37 million cubic meters, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 9.70% [1] - The cumulative gas transmission volume was 40,285.68 million cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 33.99% [1]