Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The silver market possesses dual attributes as both an industrial and precious metal, with over 60% of its demand stemming from industrial uses, particularly in the photovoltaic (PV) sector [2][4][8] - The development of the PV industry significantly impacts silver demand, necessitating close attention to applications in PV and conductive materials, as well as macroeconomic factors like central bank policies and the dollar's performance [2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Despite recent increases in silver prices, investor sentiment remains disappointed due to silver's higher short-term volatility compared to gold and a slowdown in PV demand growth, which raises concerns about future price trajectories [2][8] - The price relationship between silver and gold remains fundamentally unchanged, indicating a strong correlation where silver has not diverged from gold's trends [2][9] - Historical patterns suggest that surges in silver prices often signal the end of a precious metals bull market and a potential hard landing for the U.S. economy, which could lead to rapid price increases following quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][17] - The current market is viewed as being in a "catch-up" phase, where silver prices are expected to rise alongside a continuing gold bull market, albeit at a slower pace than during a full bull run [2][18] Important but Overlooked Content - The silver market has shown an upward trend despite not meeting the high expectations set for it, particularly in the context of the ongoing gold bull market, which has seen gold prices approach $3,500 [6][12] - The interplay between silver and gold prices is influenced by broader economic conditions, including the potential for a hard landing in the U.S. economy and subsequent monetary policy responses [10][21] - The demand for silver in industrial applications, especially in the PV sector, is critical for its price outlook, and any shortfall in this demand could adversely affect silver prices [10][32] - The concept of "hidden inventory" in the silver market complicates price predictions, as fluctuations in this inventory do not always correlate directly with market prices [29][31] Future Outlook - The future trajectory of silver prices will depend on multiple factors, including the development of the PV industry, global macroeconomic conditions, and the dynamics of related precious metals markets like gold and platinum [7][21] - The potential for a hard landing in the U.S. economy remains a key factor that could trigger significant price movements in silver, similar to past market behaviors [13][14] - Investors are advised to focus on the overall trend in precious metals rather than short-term fluctuations, as the long-term outlook remains positive amid ongoing gold market strength [20][22]

每经编辑：杜宇 当地时间9月26日，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指上涨299.97点，涨幅0.65%；纳指涨0.44%；标普500指数涨0.59%。 热门科技股多数上涨，英特尔涨超4%，微软、亚马逊涨幅不足1%，甲骨文跌超2%。金属与采矿、汽车股涨幅居前，世纪铝业涨超7%，泛美白银、美国黄 金公司、黄金资源涨超4%，Lucid、福特汽车涨超3%。加密矿企、稀土概念跌幅居前，Hut 8跌近5%，TeraWulf跌超1%。艺电收涨15%，创最近六年来最佳 单日表现，报道称沙特主权财富基金PIF和银湖资本考虑将其私有化。 特斯拉报440.40美元，涨幅4.02%，市值为14643.96亿美元。其市值一夜增加约566亿美元（约合人民币4038亿元）。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.56%，热门中概股多数下跌，金山云跌超10%；蔚来、理想汽车跌超5%；哔哩哔哩跌超4%；百度跌3%，爱奇艺、阿里巴巴跌 超2%；小鹏汽车涨超2%。 图片来源：视觉中国 据证券时报，9月26日晚，美国公布美联储衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标，即8月核心PCE，数据显示，美国8月核心PCE价格指数环比增长0.2%，预估 为0.2%，前值为0.3%；8 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Spot gold reached a record high of $3,790.97 per ounce on Tuesday, closing at $3,763.93, with an increase of 0.46% [1] - The strong momentum in the gold market is driven by ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions, which have heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Market sentiment remains bullish despite cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the economic outlook, with the focus shifting to the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The current strategy for trading gold is to maintain a bullish outlook without chasing prices, focusing on buying on dips rather than predicting market tops [2] - After reaching a peak of $3,791, gold experienced a significant pullback to a low of $3,752, indicating a potential high-level consolidation rather than a trend reversal [2] - Key support levels are identified at $3,715, and as long as this level holds, a strong shift in trend is unlikely [2][4] Group 3: Silver Market Overview - Spot silver rose to $44.4 before undergoing a correction, with current lows around $44, suggesting a potential buying opportunity on dips [5] - Support for silver is noted at approximately $43.5, with resistance levels identified in the $44.8 to $45 range [5] - Similar to gold, silver trading strategies recommend waiting for price corrections before entering long positions, with a cautionary note regarding potential volatility leading up to the National Day holiday [5]

更多分析师加入看多更多贵金属行列。 美联储降息预期、避险需求叠加投资热情，推动金价在今日（23日）亚太交易时段再创3749.27美元/盎司的历史 新高。白银也连续上涨三日，逼近44美元/盎司的逾14年新高。市场正密切关注白银能否突破1980年1月的历史收 盘高点48.70美元/盎司。 金银比翼同飞之际，以大宗商品全球主管马克西米利安·莱顿（Maximilian Layton）为首德花旗策略师团队预 测，"在美联储新鸽派领导层在2026年5~6月上任的前景、美国实际利率下降及美元承压的推动下，黄金和白银的 牛市行情将进一步扩大，并最终在2026年延伸至铜和铝领域。" 金价又又又创新高，开启长牛模式 金价今日微涨至3749.27美元/盎司，此前两个交易日连续上涨。 本轮金价上涨最直接的引擎，无疑来自于市场对美联储将进一步降息的强烈预期。虽然美联储主席鲍威尔仍强调 未来降息路径将保持谨慎，但市场仍预计美联储未来将大幅降息。 瑞士宝盛新世纪思维研究主管曼克（Carsten Menke）在降息前后对一财记者表示，过去几周，货币政策无疑是投 资需求增加的主要推动力，短线交易员与市场跟风者担心自己会错过这一波上涨，进一步推 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has initiated a new round of monetary easing, leading to increased market expectations for further rate cuts [3] - The dovish sentiment within the Federal Reserve is highlighted by Stephen Miran's call for aggressive rate cuts, suggesting that current policies may be overly restrictive due to changes in immigration, tax, and regulatory policies [3] - The futures market indicates a 90% probability of another rate cut in October, which has weakened the attractiveness of the US dollar, subsequently increasing global demand for silver [3] Group 2 - Key upcoming events include speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the release of core PCE inflation data, which could further fuel rate cut expectations and drive silver prices higher [4] - Recent trading patterns show that silver prices rebounded from key moving averages, indicating sustained demand and potential for short-term gains [5] - A smaller ascending channel suggests short-term upward potential for silver, with resistance levels around $45.19 to $45.68 acting as targets for continued price recovery [6]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices rose on September 22, breaking the $3,700 mark and reaching a new high, while domestic futures saw the Shanghai gold main contract increase by over 2%, closing at 846.50 yuan [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, gold's strong performance continued, with 10 Fed officials supporting three or more rate cuts this year, and the market expecting a 92% probability of a rate cut in October [1] - Geopolitical risks and global economic concerns continue to bolster gold's status as a preferred asset for risk hedging, with central banks expected to maintain strong gold purchases between 900 to 950 tons this year [1] Group 2 - In the context of the Fed's rate cuts, various industrial metals also saw price increases, with Shanghai silver rising by 3.81% to 10,317 yuan per kilogram, setting a new historical high [4] - The copper market is experiencing stable growth due to demand from green energy transitions and artificial intelligence, despite supply disruptions [4] - The rare earth market is seeing increased overseas orders following China's export controls, with expectations for price stabilization and profit recovery for related companies [4] Group 3 - The valuation of the non-ferrous metals index is approximately 24 times earnings, which is at the 35th percentile historically, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [5] - Investors are encouraged to participate in the market through mining ETFs and non-ferrous 60 ETFs [5]

Group 1 - International gold prices surged to a historic high, with silver prices also reaching over $44 per ounce, marking a 14-year peak [1][2] - On September 22, 2025 December gold futures rose by $61.8, closing at $3781.2 per ounce, a 1.66% increase, with an intraday high of $3783.3 [1] - Market confidence in further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite cautious statements from officials, continues to drive demand for precious metals [1][2] Group 2 - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict supports safe-haven demand for gold, while global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings [2] - The rapid rise in silver prices is providing additional support to gold prices, with expectations of a fifth consecutive year of supply-demand gaps in the global silver market [2] - On the same day, December silver futures increased by $0.95, closing at $44.315 per ounce, a 2.19% rise [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended to hold long positions. Gold is supported by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, expected Fed rate - cuts, geopolitical situations, and long - term strategic allocation needs. Silver benefits from rate - cuts, strong demand, and limited supply growth [1]. - Copper recommends holding long positions, with some profit - taking. In the short - term, beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, it is still optimistic about copper [1][8]. - Zinc is expected to face pressure in its rebound. In the long - term, it is a short - position allocation in the sector due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [1][12]. - Lead, tin, and nickel are expected to face pressure in their rebounds, affected by factors such as enterprise maintenance, supply - demand imbalances, and inventory changes [1]. - Aluminum is expected to be relatively strong, with stable overseas bauxite supply, inventory reduction, and increased downstream demand [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have a rebound, with fundamental pressure but policy support [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to have a high - level shock, with improved fundamentals and limited upward drivers in the short - term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a rebound, with increasing production but also increasing inventory reduction, indicating strong terminal demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold has reached a new all - time high, and the market has priced in at least three rate - cuts [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US economic data supports rate - cuts. The retail sales growth may slow down. The market expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points, and a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year. Geopolitical situations in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have escalated. In the short - term, geopolitical and economic uncertainties drive the gold price to a new high. In the long - term, gold may have a long - term bull market [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term long - position strategy for gold and silver, but beware of "selling on the news" trading. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper has risen and then fallen. Pay attention to the support at the 80,000 - yuan level [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In August, China's imports of copper concentrates increased year - on - year, while imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased month - on - month. The processing fee TC is still in deep inversion. The production of electrolytic copper may decrease in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to pick up, and the annual supply - demand is in a tight balance [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market has fully priced in the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, with some profit - taking. Beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The recommended trading ranges are [79,500, 82,500] for Shanghai copper and [9,900, 11,000] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has faced pressure and declined, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic zinc concentrate TC has decreased, and SMM's imported zinc concentrate index has increased. In September, domestic smelter maintenance has increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has increased, while overseas LME zinc inventory has continued to decrease. The demand in September is expected to be good, but downstream purchases are based on rigid demand [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed rate - cut is almost certain. London zinc is approaching the 3,000 - dollar level, while domestic zinc ingot inventory increase has dragged down Shanghai zinc. In the long - term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds. The recommended trading ranges are [22,000, 22,500] for Shanghai zinc and [2,900, 3,100] dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price has faced pressure in its rebound, and alumina has stabilized at a low level [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased. In September, the inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has increased. For alumina, the supply of Guinea's bauxite is abundant, but the arrival volume in September may be affected by the rainy season. The domestic alumina operating rate has increased, and the supply pressure has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,500 - 21,500] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price has faced pressure in its rebound, and stainless steel has rebounded [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. The supply of refined nickel in China has a large surplus pressure, and the domestic pure nickel social inventory has continued to increase slightly. For stainless steel, the downstream consumption peak - season expectation still exists. The inventory of stainless steel has continued to decrease, and the production volume in September is expected to increase [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on nickel and stainless steel with light positions in the short - term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and then fell, with the late - session gain falling below 2% [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side continues to release incremental production, with weekly production and operating rate at historical highs. The terminal demand peak - season is obvious, with high - level energy storage demand and a warming power battery market. The downstream material factory's production schedule has continued to increase, and the inventory has been replenished for 10 consecutive weeks. The total inventory reduction of lithium carbonate production has increased, and the smelter inventory is below the median level, providing support for the price [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to whether it can stand firm on the 60 - day moving average [72,500 - 74,500] [24].

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices reached a new high of $3697.7 per ounce on September 16, 2023, driven by expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Analysts predict that gold could rise to $4000 per ounce by the end of the year, with some forecasts suggesting it could reach $4500 or even $5000 under certain conditions [4][3] Group 2: Silver Price Performance - Silver has seen a more aggressive increase, with a year-to-date rise of 48%, outperforming gold's 40% increase [5] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to both its safe-haven appeal and its industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles [5][9] Group 3: Investment Trends - Gold ETFs have seen significant growth, with total assets reaching 160 billion yuan, a 120% increase from the beginning of the year [8] - The influx of funds into silver ETFs is also notable, with projections indicating a substantial increase in physical holdings by 2025 [8][9] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The U.S. manufacturing index dropped sharply to -8.7 in September, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, which supports the case for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - Concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and strong physical demand from central banks and private investors are key factors driving the gold market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant bullish trend, driven by multiple factors including expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and imbalances in supply and demand [1] Group 1: Gold Market - On September 16, COMEX gold futures reached a peak of $3731.9 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1] - Domestic Shanghai gold futures closed at 842.08 yuan per gram, with a cumulative increase of 7.37% since September [1] - Market sentiment remains bullish, with previous forecasts of a $4000 per ounce target for gold potentially being realized sooner than expected [1] Group 2: Silver Market - COMEX silver futures rose to over $43 per ounce, while domestic Shanghai silver futures peaked at 10152 yuan per kilogram [1] - The upward trend in silver prices aligns with the overall bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [1]