1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of job cuts in US challenger enterprises in October and the decrease in non - farm employment private data have increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Additionally, factors such as geopolitical risks, expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world may support precious metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 917.51 yuan/g, with a change of 0.13 yuan compared to the previous day and - 2.56 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 37,088, and the position was 255,562 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 38 yuan/10g, the trading volume was 460,064, and the position was 4,303,142 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,984.80 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 183,645, and the position was 311,506. The inventory was 37,847,208.99 troy ounces [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,994.10 dollars/ounce [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.23 dollars/ounce, the trading volume was 11,217, and the position was 102,295. The inventory was 483,133,331.10 troy ounces [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 48.70 dollars/ounce [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The US Treasury will auction 125 billion dollars in Treasury bonds this week, along with about 40 billion dollars in corporate bonds, posing a severe test to market liquidity. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - The high number of job cuts in US challenger enterprises in October and the decrease in non - farm employment private data have increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. The Fed provides liquidity to the inter - bank market through the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF). Geopolitical risks in Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and US - Venezuela remain unresolved, and many central banks around the world are continuously buying gold, which may support precious metal prices [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The strategy is to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 830 - 860 yuan/g and the resistance level is around 950 - 1,000 yuan/g. For London silver, the support level is around 39 - 42 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 50 - 55 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9,400 - 10,000 yuan/kg and the resistance level is around 11,600 - 12,400 yuan/kg [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of corporate lay - offs in the US in October has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Along with factors such as the Fed providing liquidity, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metal prices may be supported [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai Gold futures' closing price was 917.80 yuan/g, with a change of 5.54 yuan compared to the previous day and - 4.12 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 238,433.00, a decrease of 157,531.00 from the previous day. The inventory remained at 87,816.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3941.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 43.10 dollars compared to the previous day and - 5.60 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 281,102.00, a decrease of 97,457.00 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot price was 3968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 20.20 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai Silver futures' closing price was 11427.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 151.00 yuan compared to the previous day and - 14.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 571,201.00, a decrease of 306,143.00 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 47.85 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.02 dollars compared to the previous day and 0.57 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 74,607.00, a decrease of 24,464.00 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot price was 47.61 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.51 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The direction of the Fed's December rate cut is unclear. This year's voting members are hesitant due to the government shutdown, and next year's members are more concerned about inflation. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4%, and the expectation of a December rate cut is rising [1]. - The AI revolution has accelerated the lay - off wave. In October, the number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US increased by 175.3% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in twenty years. The private data provider Revelio Labs reported a decrease of 9100 in non - farm employment in October [1]. Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1000. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance level around 11600 - 12400 [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The better - than - expected US employment data in October and the potential decrease in the Fed's December interest - rate cut probability, along with the reduction of the global major countries' debt due to a one - year Sino - US economic and trade agreement, may put short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and US - Venezuela, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks globally will support precious metal prices in the long - term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Information Market Data Summary - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 909.53 yuan/gram, with a change of 2.25 yuan compared to the previous day and - 6.15 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 59,552.00, and the open interest was 254,730.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,276.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 38.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 23.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 805,726.00, and the open interest was 244,274.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,990.40 dollars/ounce, with a change of 38.00 dollars compared to the previous day and 23.00 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 171,785.00, and the open interest was 321,089.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 0.72 dollars/ounce, with a change of 47.86 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was - 13,235.00, and the open interest was 102,717.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of 19.70 dollars compared to the previous day and 17.10 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 47.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.17 dollars compared to the previous day and - 0.15 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The US government has been shut down for 36 days, the longest in history. Trump called for an end to the "filibuster" rule to restart the government. - The US "small non - farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations. The US ISM Services PMI in October rebounded above expectations, reaching an eight - month high, and the price - paid index hit a three - year high [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions cautiously. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,400 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 11,600 - 12,400 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Uncertainties in China-US trade negotiations support precious metal prices. Concerns about the weakening US job market increase the expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Fed and a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction. Geopolitical conflicts in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, expansion expectations of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks globally support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term, but potential negative factors such as the alleviation of the US credit crisis and the end of the federal government shutdown should be watched [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Gold was 973.70 yuan/gram, with a change of - 22.20 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of spot沪金T+D was 71850.00, and the position was 258232.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 4267.90 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 39107098.30 troy ounces. The holding amount of SPDR gold ETF was 41.50 tons [1] - **Silver**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Silver was 11779.00 yuan/ten grams, and the trading volume of spot沪银T+D was 1249250.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 47.52 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 506467618.32 troy ounces. The holding amount of iShare silver ETF was 487.19 tons [1] Important Information - The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in China - US economic and trade consultations. The White House economic advisor said the US government shutdown might end this week. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party signed a coalition - governing document, and Takamachi Sanae is likely to become the Japanese prime minister. Vietnam's real estate market has a "trillions - level" problem [1] Trading Strategy - It is advisable to lay out long positions after price corrections. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3900 - 4100 and the resistance level around 4383 - 4778. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 930 and the resistance level around 1000 - 1100. For London silver, watch the support level around 42 - 48 and the resistance level around 57 - 68. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9800 - 10800 and the resistance level around 13000 - 14800 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of US trade policy, weak employment market concerns, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October, the US federal government shutdown crisis, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally will support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 897.74 yuan/gram, with a change of -13.64 yuan compared to the previous day and 44.84 yuan compared to September 26, 2025. The trading volume was 71,242.00, and the open interest was 211,162.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was -117.00 yuan/ten grams, with a change of -87.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 450.00 yuan compared to September 26, 2025. The trading volume was 605,570.00, and the open interest was 544,232.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,035.50 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 154.70 US dollars compared to the previous day and 44.40 US dollars compared to October 2, 2025. The trading volume was 273,357.00, and the open interest was 379,094.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 47.52 US dollars/ounce, with a change of -0.14 US dollars compared to the previous day and 0.65 US dollars compared to October 2, 2025. The trading volume was 141,909.00, and the open interest was 128,281.00 [1] Important Information - The list of candidates for the Fed Chair has been narrowed down to five, and BlackRock executive Rieder impressed Bessent. Fed Governor Waller is most worried about the employment market and is open to a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [1] - For the first time in modern US history, the White House "steward" announced that the Trump administration has started permanent layoffs. The release time of the US September CPI report is set for October 24, 9 days later than the interest rate decision [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly establish long positions after price pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,065 - 4,381 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 790 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 940 - 1,010 yuan/gram; for London silver, pay attention to the support level around 30 - 37 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 50 - 57 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7,200 - 8,500 yuan/ten grams and the resistance level around 13,000 - 14,800 yuan/ten grams [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - Although the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October has decreased and the number of expected rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced from 3 to 2 due to the robust performance of multiple US economic and employment data and Fed Chairman Powell's statement on balancing employment and inflation, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries may support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Data Gold Market - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 854.72 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.34 compared to the previous day and 9.56 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 270,430, with a decrease of 146 compared to the previous day and an increase of 39,583 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in ten grams) was 57,429 [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Gold T+D**: The closing price was 852.90 yuan/gram. The trading volume was 5,422, with a decrease of 2,880 compared to the previous day. The holding volume was 219,666, with a decrease of 3,600 compared to the previous day and 8,504 compared to the previous week [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,678.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of 9.30 compared to the previous day and 111.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 206,111, with a decrease of 48,786 compared to the previous day and 12,457 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 39,946,410.45 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,769.85 dollars/ounce, with a change of 39.10 compared to the previous day and 126.15 compared to the previous week. The SPDR Gold ETF holding volume was 1,005.72 tons, with an increase of 30.06 compared to the previous day and 8.87 compared to the previous week [1]. Silver Market - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 221.00 yuan/ten grams. The trading volume was 957,978, with an increase of 257,267 compared to the previous day and 168,324 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in ten grams) was 1,156,855 [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Silver T+D**: The closing price was 10,551 yuan/ten grams. The trading volume was 212,236, with an increase of 606,548 compared to the previous day and 91,584 compared to the previous week. The holding volume was 44,832, with a decrease of 139,222 compared to the previous day [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 46.37 dollars/ounce. The trading volume was 101,291, with an increase of 1,626 compared to the previous day and 43,663 compared to the previous week. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 530,344,533.33 [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 3.15 dollars/ounce. The iShares Silver ETF holding volume was 15,361.84 tons, with a decrease of 28.23 compared to the previous day [1]. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets showed various changes. For example, the ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 80.52, with a change of -1.53 compared to the previous day and -1.58 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Other Commodities**: INE crude oil was 0.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 68.82 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 65.19 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper futures were 82,470 yuan/ton, and LME copper spot was 10,205 dollars/ton, etc. [1]. Stock Indices - **Major Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,828.5764, with a decrease of 25.20 compared to the previous day and -0.47 compared to the previous week. The S&P 500 was 6,643.7000, with an increase of 38.98 compared to the previous day and 11.74 compared to the previous week. Other indices such as the UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, etc., also showed different changes [1]. Important Information - **Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months. Trump's drug tariff is 15% and does not apply to trade agreement parties such as the EU and Japan [1]. - **US Government Situation**: On September 30, the US government's federal funds will be exhausted. The Senate will resume to review a temporary spending bill. The Republican members of the US House of Representatives have announced a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown on October 1, but the bill does not include the healthcare policy required by the Democrats, leading to a stand - off between the two parties [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October has decreased and the number of expected rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced from 3 to 2, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries may support the prices of precious metals in the medium to long term [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 852.90 yuan/gram on 2025-09-26, with a change of 12.97 compared to the previous day and 9.56 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 5,422.00, and the open interest was 219,666.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 10,551.00 yuan/ten grams on 2025-09-26, with a change of 198.00 compared to the previous day and 308.00 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 212,236.00, and the open interest was 44,832.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,678.20 on 2025-09-26, with a change of 9.30 compared to the previous day and 111.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 206,111.00, and the open interest was 402,555.00 [1] - **International Gold**: The London gold spot price was 3,769.85 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-26, with a change of 39.10 compared to the previous day and 126.15 compared to the previous week. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,005.72 tons [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 46.37 on 2025-09-26, with a change of 0.90 compared to the previous day and 4.27 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 101,291.00, and the open interest was 134,631.00 [1] - **International Silver**: The London silver spot price was 3.15 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-26, with a change of 0.06 compared to the previous day and 4.27 compared to the previous week. The iShares Silver ETF holdings were 15,361.84 tons [1] Important Information - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations, and consumer spending has increased for three consecutive months. The White House stated that Trump's drug tariffs do not apply to trade agreement parties such as the EU and Japan, and the tariff rate is 15% instead of 100% [1] - On September 30, the US government's federal funds will be exhausted, and the Senate will reconvene to review a temporary spending bill. The Republican members of the US House of Representatives recently announced a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown on October 1, but the bill does not include the healthcare policy requested by the Democrats, leading to a standoff between the two parties [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to go long when the price falls. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,840 - 4,065. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 880 - 930. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 11,350 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates, continuous gold - buying by central banks globally, and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pull - backs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price was 776.04 yuan/gram, with a change of 0.76 yuan compared to the previous day and - 0.06 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 202,457.00, and the open interest was 33,329.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Gold Spot (T + D)**: The closing price was 770.33 yuan/gram, down 2.93 yuan. The trading volume was 29,774.00, and the open interest was 225,294.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 8,747.00 yuan/kg, down 63.00 yuan. The trading volume was 323,881.00, and the open interest was 249,023.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Spot (T + D)**: The closing price was 8,737.00 yuan/kg, down 68.00 yuan. The trading volume was 521,320.00, and the open interest was 3,142,008.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,368.70 dollars/ounce, up 30.20 dollars. The trading volume was 129,510.00, and the open interest was 332,177.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 0.92 dollars/ounce, up 0.55 dollars. The trading volume was 39,724.00, and the open interest was 131,315.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,335.70 dollars/ounce, up 33.20 dollars [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 36.31 dollars/ounce, down 0.20 dollars [1]. Important Information - **US Situation**: The US House - passed "Great Beauty" bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars and expand the fiscal deficit by over 3 trillion dollars. The ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected rate - cut time is still September/October/December [1]. - **Eurozone Situation**: The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The manufacturing PMI in June continued to rise, and the CPI annual rate was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK Situation**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May. The CPI annual rate in May was in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The manufacturing and service PMI in June were higher than expected. Due to the GDP decline in April, the expectation of an August rate cut is rising, with 2 - 3 rate cuts expected by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan Situation**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January. It may reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of an interest - rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pull - backs. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 730 - 750 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 840 - 900 yuan/gram. For London silver, the support level is around 31 - 34 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 38 - 40 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/kg and the resistance level is around 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/kg [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The medium - to long - term upward trend remains unchanged, but there is a game in short - to medium - term drivers. Trump's policy combination will push up the US federal government debt, weaken the US dollar credit, and with factors like the approaching Fed rate cut, complex global geopolitical situation, and continued central bank gold purchases, the gold price will rise in the long run. However, in the short - to medium - term, factors such as the impact of tariff policies on the US economy, the Fed's rate - cut timing and space, and the potential rebound of the US dollar index will affect the gold price [1][17][18]. - Silver: The medium - term logic is expected to return to the fundamentals, and there will still be downward pressure in the second half of the year. After the recent significant catch - up, the silver price will be influenced by its commodity attributes. With an increase in global supply, a decrease in demand, and a narrowing supply - demand gap in 2025, coupled with risks to industrial and photovoltaic silver demand, the silver price is expected to be weak, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [2][19][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1. 2025 H1 Market Review - Gold: In H1 2025, Trump's policies increased market uncertainty, weakened the US dollar, and with central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, the gold price rose strongly. Gold ETF inflows, especially in April, were a key driving force. After April, the gold price fluctuated at a high level due to policy adjustments and market sentiment changes. COMEX gold rose about 28.2%, and SHFE gold rose about 26.1% [8][9][10]. - Silver: It generally followed the gold price but was restricted by its industrial attributes. After being sold off in early April, it rebounded and reached a new high in late May and early June. COMEX silver rose about 22.7%, and SHFE silver rose about 18.7% [10]. 3.2 2. 2025 H2 Precious Metals Market Outlook - Gold: The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar credit, continued central bank gold purchases, and the approaching Fed rate cut. However, in the short - to medium - term, there are uncertainties in the US economy, Fed policy, and the US dollar index, which will affect the gold price [17][18][19]. - Silver: The medium - term logic will return to the fundamentals. With an increase in supply, a decrease in demand, and risks to industrial and photovoltaic demand, the silver price is expected to be weak, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [19][74]. 3.3 3. Main Macroeconomic Influencing Factors Analysis 3.3.1 Medium - to Long - Term Perspective: Gold's Upward Trend Remains Unchanged - The tariff policy and fiscal deficit expansion will weaken the US dollar credit, and the demand for hedging against the US dollar credit risk will support the gold price [20][21]. - Global central banks will continue to purchase gold due to the increasing US dollar credit risk and geopolitical uncertainties, providing support for the gold price [22]. - The market's hedging demand will remain due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and geopolitical situations [23]. 3.3.2 Short - to Medium - Term Perspective: Driving Forces Are in a Game - **Impact of Tariff Policy Negotiations and Tax Cuts on the US Economy**: The tariff policy may cause the US economy to weaken, boosting the precious metals market. However, a controllable trade agreement and the implementation of tax and expenditure bills may offset the negative impact on the precious metals market. The US employment market is relatively stable but has hidden risks, inflation may rise in the second half of the year, and consumer spending and PMI show signs of slowdown [30][31][41]. - **Approaching Fed Rate Cut but Limited Space**: The Fed is expected to cut rates, but the timing may be late and the space limited, which will support the precious metals market but also restrict the short - term upward space of the gold price [44][45][48]. - **Be Wary of the Risk of a Temporary Rebound in the US Dollar**: Although the US dollar index has declined, factors such as the high 10 - year US Treasury yield and the US's relative economic advantage may limit its further decline and even cause a rebound, which will suppress the gold price [56][57]. 3.4 4. Fundamental Influencing Factors Analysis 3.4.1 Gold: The Driving Force of Key Factor ETFs May Weaken in H2 - **Supply**: In Q1 2025, global gold supply increased slightly, with an increase in mined gold and a decrease in recycled gold. Gold inventories in major exchanges generally increased [60]. - **Demand**: In Q1 2025, global gold demand increased, with a significant increase in investment demand, especially gold ETF inflows. In May, gold ETFs had a net outflow. In H2, economic uncertainties will support gold investment demand, but the driving force of gold ETFs may weaken, while central bank gold purchases will still support the price [65][66]. 3.4.2 Silver: The Medium - Term Logic Is Expected to Return to the Fundamentals - **Supply**: The global silver supply is expected to increase in 2025, and the visible inventory has increased. The US may impose tariffs on key metals, but the inventory has not decreased significantly [74][75]. - **Demand**: The global silver demand is expected to decrease in 2025, with a decline in physical demand in various fields and a slowdown in photovoltaic silver demand. However, investment demand is expected to increase, which will support the silver price to some extent. The silver price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [80][81][88].