打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【白银期货最新行情】 | 1月29日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 30891 | 8.51% | 759570 | 281218 | 特朗普警告对伊朗下一次袭击将更严重，称后者时间不多了。伊朗常驻联合国代表团回应称，伊方愿在 相互尊重基础上与美对话。 数据显示，1月29日上海白银现货价格报价31100元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（30891元/千克）升水 209元/千克。 【机构观点】 美联储1月议息会议按下暂停键，维持利率在3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支持降息25个基点；鲍威尔重 申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据说话，并表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明 可以放松政策，建议继任者远离政治。 美联储停止降息，鲍威尔表示不会置评美元走势，金价拉动银价走高，银价受监管压力暂缓涨势。随着 3月COMEX主要交割月来临，逼仓言论再度来袭，需谨慎分辨市场消息。沪银溢价大幅收敛至3700元/ 克，国内情绪再升温。国内外交易所全面上调保 ...

供应端确实紧张。全球白银已经连续五年减产，2026年矿产银预计才2.54万吨。 要命的是约72%的白银是铜、铅、锌开采的"副产品"，你不能因为想多挖银子，就专门去扩产。主产国秘鲁、墨西哥要么矿场停产，要么 工人罢工，COMEX可交割库存只剩1.2亿盎司，伦敦金库更是跌到233吨的十年低位。 晒银条的人多了起来。 "两个月赚18万""500块变850""一周翻倍"，这些收益率听起来比炒股刺激多了。2026年1月24日，国际白银价格历史性突破100美元/盎司，9 个月涨了260%。你说这是财富密码，我看更像是击鼓传花的游戏又换了个道具。 | | 国际贵金属 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 涨跌 现价 | 涨跌幅 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4981.309 45.349 | 0.92% 15.35% | | 伦敦银现 | 103.341 7.194 | 7.48% 44.38% | | COMEX黄金 | 4983.1d | 69.7 1.42% 15.03% | | ANAFVALE | 103.260d 6.888 | 7 1501 TE 1001 | 先说说那些"看起来很有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices coincided with an unexpected outage at the CME, leading to speculation about whether silver represents a risk or will continue to command a premium. The key lies in distinguishing between short-term disruptions and long-term trends [1]. Market Status: Why is Silver "Soaring"? - The recent increase in silver prices is driven by a combination of macro-financial conditions and the fundamental supply-demand dynamics [3]. Macroeconomic Drivers: Rate Cut Expectations Dominate Sentiment - Core Factor: The market's rapidly rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are the primary driver behind the increase in all precious metal prices [4]. - Market Expectations: The CME's "FedWatch" tool indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged from approximately 44% in mid-November to over 87% [4]. - Direct Impact: The expectation of rate cuts leads to a decline in real interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, attracting significant capital inflows [4]. Supply-Demand Fundamentals: Historic Shortage and "Short Squeeze" Risk - Unlike gold, silver has strong industrial demand, and the current supply-demand imbalance is pronounced [4]. - Ongoing Shortage: The global silver market has experienced a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with increasing demand from green industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [4]. - Inventory Depletion: Silver inventories at major global exchanges have fallen to multi-year lows, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory at its lowest since 2015 and the LBMA's deliverable inventory significantly reduced from its 2020 peak [5]. - Market Structure: Extremely low inventories have created a tight spot market, leading to soaring lease rates. The futures market shows a clear "backwardation" structure, indicating a typical short squeeze signal, where shorts face significant physical delivery pressure, potentially forcing them to cover positions and further drive up prices [5]. CME Outage: "Conspiracy" or Coincidence? - The CME's data center outage due to cooling system failure for over 10 hours has been linked to the surge in silver prices, with some speculating it was a protective measure for shorts. However, it is more likely a coincidental technical event that amplified short-term volatility [7]. - Event Details: The outage was caused by a failure in the cooling system, leading to server overheating. The CME and its operators have since repaired and restored services [7]. - Market Impact: The outage occurred after the Thanksgiving holiday, when market liquidity was already low. Upon reopening, COMEX silver futures surged approximately 6% within six minutes, primarily due to the release of accumulated orders during the outage and the inability of some hedging positions to operate in time, exacerbating price volatility [7]. - Conclusion: There is no evidence to suggest this was a targeted market intervention; rather, it acted as a catalyst for price fluctuations in an already tense market environment [7]. Risks and Opportunities: Where Will Silver Go? - The future trajectory of silver will depend on whether the driving factors can be sustained and how risks evolve [9]. Long-term Logic Supporting Continued Premium - Monetary Attributes Support: The global high debt and geopolitical cycles, along with major central banks' gold purchases and concerns over fiat currencies, form a solid foundation for a long-term bull market in precious metals [10]. - Industrial Attributes Strengthening: As a critical material for photovoltaics, AI data centers, and electric vehicles, silver's strategic resource status is increasingly prominent, indicating long-term demand growth [10]. - Valuation Recovery Potential: The current gold-silver ratio (gold price/silver price) remains around 85, significantly higher than the historical average of 60-70 over the past decades. Historically, extreme gold-silver ratios tend to revert to the mean through silver's price appreciation [10]. Short-term Risks to Watch - Trading Crowding and Profit-Taking: Silver has nearly doubled in price this year, creating substantial profit-taking potential. The holding structure has shifted from "short-dominated" to "long-dominated," and any shift in sentiment could trigger profit-taking and lead to sharp corrections [11]. - Macroeconomic Expectation Fluctuations: The market has heavily priced in rate cut expectations. If future U.S. inflation or employment data exceeds expectations, it could temper rate cut expectations and negatively impact silver prices [11]. - "Short Squeeze" Easing Risks: The current extreme low inventories and short squeeze conditions cannot persist indefinitely. If inventories show signs of recovery or futures contracts transition smoothly, the price premium driven by delivery pressures may quickly dissipate [11]. Summary - Overall, the current silver market's core contradiction lies in the coexistence of long-term strategic bullish logic and short-term high prices and volatility risks. Long-term trends include expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, structural supply deficits in the global silver market, and its irreplaceable industrial demand in emerging industries, all supporting a higher price center for silver. Its valuation advantage relative to gold also indicates potential for further appreciation [12]. Short-term risks include the rapid price increase through "short squeeze" dynamics, which has exhausted many short-term positives, making the market highly sensitive to any changes in macro data, profit-taking, or inventory improvements [12].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced extreme volatility, with prices initially surging to nearly 20,000 yuan per kilogram before plummeting by 2,500 yuan to a low of 17,500 yuan, closing at 18,205 yuan [1] Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver futures on the Shanghai market saw a dramatic rise of over 10%, reaching a peak of 19,998 yuan per kilogram before a sharp decline [1] - The afternoon trading session witnessed silver prices breaking through key support levels of 19,000 and 18,000 yuan, ultimately closing at 18,205 yuan [1] - The international silver price fluctuated significantly, initially exceeding 83 USD per ounce before dropping to around 75 USD, indicating high volatility in the market [6] Group 2: Other Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium also faced significant declines, with platinum dropping 10% to 634.35 yuan per kilogram and palladium falling 10% to 494.1 yuan per kilogram [3] - The price of palladium experienced a daily drop of 12%, falling below 1,700 USD per ounce [6] Group 3: Market Influences - Market analysts attribute the sudden drop in silver prices to profit-taking and geopolitical developments, particularly discussions between Trump and Zelensky regarding a potential peace agreement in Ukraine [8] - Despite geopolitical easing, the supply-demand relationship for silver remains tight, with a projected demand of 1.24 billion ounces against a supply of only 1.01 billion ounces, leading to a structural deficit [9] Group 4: Inventory and Future Outlook - Silver inventories have significantly decreased, with COMEX silver stocks down 70% since 2020 and London vaults down 40%, raising concerns about available supply [10] - Analysts suggest that the recent trading activity in precious metals may lead to increased volatility, especially with the upcoming New Year holiday and potential profit-taking by long positions [10] - Long-term trends such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices, with projections indicating a potential rise to 5,000 USD per ounce by 2026 [10]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market is showing a mixed pattern, with certain metal varieties performing strongly, particularly silver, which has reached a new historical high [1] - The strong performance of the silver market is closely related to tight spot supply, with high open interest in silver futures indicating a "short squeeze" logic due to low inventory [3] - The World Silver Association predicts a structural supply gap of approximately 95 million ounces in the global silver market by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [3] Group 2 - Investors are focusing on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut already priced in, and attention on guidance for rate cuts in the first half of 2026 [4] - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, with China's gold reserves reported at 74.12 million ounces as of November 2025, marking a month-on-month increase for the 13th consecutive month [4] - In October, global central bank demand for gold remained strong, with net purchases reaching 53 tons, a 36% month-on-month increase, representing the largest monthly net demand of the year [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance with silver futures rising over 5% and other commodities like lithium carbonate and tin also seeing gains of over 2% [2] - On the downside, aluminum oxide has dropped over 3%, while other commodities such as soda ash, glass, and industrial silicon have decreased by more than 2% [2] - The market is experiencing volatility, particularly in silver, which is expected to have significant fluctuations in the short term [3] Group 2 - The recent ADP report indicates an average of 4,750 new jobs added weekly in the private sector, ending a four-week trend of job losses, which brings positive signals to the labor market [1] - The US dollar index has slightly rebounded, which may suppress the upward momentum of precious metals [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which has largely been priced in, but any hawkish comments from Powell could lead to increased selling pressure [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in London silver prices, surpassing $60 per ounce, is attributed to tight supply and low inventory levels, leading to a "short squeeze" scenario in the market [2][5]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have significantly increased, breaking the $60 per ounce mark, while the gold-silver ratio has fallen below 70 [2][5]. - The high level of open interest in silver contracts indicates continued trading activity, driven by supply constraints and low inventory [2][5]. - The market is expected to remain strong until supply issues are resolved, but there is a risk of further price increases [2][5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The latest ADP report shows that the private sector added an average of 4,750 jobs per week for the four weeks ending November 22, ending a four-week trend of job losses [2][5]. - This positive labor market signal has led to a slight rebound in the US dollar index, which may suppress precious metal prices [2][5]. - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, which has largely been priced into the market; however, a hawkish tone from Powell could lead to selling pressure [2][5].

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices are influenced by long-term factors such as the insufficient elasticity of copper concentrate and the rise of emerging industries, with a core supply-demand contradiction in China primarily related to copper ore [2][3] - The global copper industry faces a significant gap, with an annual increase in refined copper consumption of 800,000 tons, while the supply of copper concentrate is insufficient to meet this demand [2] - The reduction of registered copper warehouse receipts on the LME indicates potential delivery pressure and market tension, exacerbated by the flow of non-US inventories to the US [2][3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is characterized by dual drivers: the instability of the fiat currency system and the gold-silver ratio indicating a shift towards re-inflation [4][5] - The current silver bull market is in its mid-to-late stage, supported by inflation expectations and the dynamics of the gold-silver ratio, which has implications for market risk appetite [5] - The silver market's strength is primarily driven by investment demand rather than consumption, with a potential continuation of the bull market into the second half of 2026 [5] Group 3: Commodity Market Outlook - Bank of America’s commodity report suggests a diversified outlook for the commodity market in 2025, with bullish sentiments for oil, gold, and copper, while bearish on natural gas [6][8] - The report anticipates that the global economic divergence will continue to impact commodity performance, particularly in energy and agricultural sectors [8] - Industrial activity is showing mild improvement, but significant disparities exist across sectors, with high-tech exports driven by AI and data center demand experiencing growth [8] Group 4: Copper Market Risks and Strategies - The significant reduction in copper warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange signals a potential short squeeze risk, as the market may face delivery challenges [10][11] - The current market structure indicates that long positions have a strong incentive to take delivery, while short positions may lack the capacity to deliver, leading to heightened risks [11] - The global consensus on a shortage of refined copper in the coming years is driven by declining ore quality and insufficient capital investment in new mining projects [14] Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - China's economic landscape shows signs of overcapacity, with expectations of prolonged imbalances that may necessitate fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment [9] - The ongoing decline in China's real estate market is likely to keep consumer confidence and domestic consumption subdued, impacting global commodity markets [9]

Group 1 - International silver prices have significantly increased, with London spot silver reaching a record high of $59.33 per ounce and COMEX silver futures closing at $59.053 per ounce, marking a rise of over 2.7% [1] - The silver market in Shenzhen is experiencing a rational investment trend, with increased volatility in silver futures and multiple instances of daily price fluctuations exceeding 5% since October [2] - Retail silver prices in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market have reached 16.4 yuan per gram, close to the year's peak, but sales of silver jewelry remain stable as consumers focus more on styles rather than price [4] Group 2 - Despite the rising prices, consumers are not engaging in mass purchases, with more silver being returned than sold, indicating a more rational approach to silver investment [8] - A jewelry brand representative noted that while silver prices have increased by 16% over two weeks, the current market activity is much calmer compared to previous peaks, with more sales than purchases [10] - The demand for precious metals has broadened due to tax policies on gold, leading some stores to diversify into silver sales alongside gold [12] Group 3 - The market is experiencing a significant supply tightening due to a global decline in silver inventories, which is contributing to the rising prices [17] - Analysts have observed a trend of "short squeezes" in international markets, with increasing silver leasing rates indicating a severe shortage of silver [16] - The current phase is characterized by stockpiling of silver, particularly in overseas markets, although caution is advised regarding the associated investment risks [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, within the range of RMB 88,000 - 90,000 per ton for SHFE and USD 11,000 - 11,300 per ton for LME. The driving factors include short - term support from supply - side inventory decline and reduced imports, strong orders in the automotive sector on the demand side but overall procurement being constrained by high copper prices, and the impact of macro - sentiment affected by a stronger US dollar and weakened risk appetite [3][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On December 03, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to RMB 88,970 per ton, up RMB 260 from the previous day. The basis strengthened, with the spot premium widening to RMB 180 per ton, and the LME (0 - 3) premium remained around USD 69.18 per ton [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper holding volume contracted, decreasing by 1,137 lots to 333,305 lots on December 02. The market trading volume was light, with terminal procurement mainly for rigid demand and a strong wait - and - see sentiment [1]. 3.1.2. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: The LME inventory dropped to 28,969 tons on December 03, a month - on - month decrease of 5.23%, indicating short - term supply tightness. The arrival of imported copper decreased, and Nord Co., Ltd.'s copper foil production capacity expansion plan may increase long - term supply. The price increase of copper - clad laminates showed rising raw material cost pressure [2]. - **需求端**: The demand in the automotive field was strong. Nord Co., Ltd. received an order for 373,000 tons of copper foil from Zhongchuang Xinhang on December 03. However, high copper prices inhibited downstream procurement. The transaction in the recycled copper rod market was light, the refined - scrap price difference widened to RMB 4,182.23 per ton, and terminal cable enterprises had a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - **库存端**: The SMM copper inventory in the country's major regions decreased by 14,500 tons month - on - month to 159,000 tons on December 01 due to reduced arrivals and good outbound shipments. The SHFE inventory slightly increased to 162,150 tons, and a slight inventory build - up is expected in the future [3]. 3.1.3. Price Trend Judgment The copper futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the price range of RMB 88,000 - 90,000 per ton for SHFE and USD 11,000 - 11,300 per ton for LME [3]. 3.2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring The report provides price and inventory data for multiple indicators on December 03, December 02, and November 27, 2025, including spot prices, premiums, LME (0 - 3) premiums, SHFE and LME prices, and LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories, along with their changes and change rates [5]. 3.3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On December 03, Nord Co., Ltd.'s wholly - owned subsidiary Baojiada signed a copper foil supply agreement with Zhongchuang Xinhang from 2026 - 2028, with a total supply of 373,000 tons over three years, with an estimated output value of nearly RMB 40 billion. Nord has planned to expand its global total production capacity to 300,000 tons per year by 2030 [6]. - On December 02, although the copper price rose, the price of recycled copper raw materials lacked upward momentum, resulting in a continuous widening of the refined - scrap price difference. As of December 01, the refined - scrap price difference had widened to RMB 4,182.23 per ton, but the market transaction was still light [6]. - On December 02, Jiantao, a copper - clad laminate giant, issued a price increase letter, raising the prices of its full - range of copper - clad laminate products by 5% - 10% starting from that day, mainly due to increased raw material cost pressure [6]. - On December 01, the SMM copper inventory in the country's major regions decreased by 14,500 tons to 159,000 tons. It is expected that the weekly copper inventory will slightly increase in the future [7]. - On December 01, SolGold rejected a preliminary conditional acquisition offer from Jiangxi Copper Group Co., Ltd. [7]. 3.4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures Research and Development Department [8][10][12].