市场参与者正密切关注主要生产国的动态。根据行业分析，近期海外铝土矿发运增加打压了铝土矿价 格，也削弱了氧化铝的成本支撑。同时，国内氧化铝大规模减产并未出现，运行产能仍处于高位，这与 电解铝产能接近天花板对比鲜明，强化了氧化铝供强需弱的格局。 投资者的焦点正转向即将召开的美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。南华期货分析指出，近端 市场主要关注12月11日的美联储FOMC会议利率决议、点阵图和经济预测表。该机构认为，降息25个基 点已被市场定价，关键在于对2026年上半年降息预期的指引。 在贵金属领域，全球央行的购金行为仍在持续。国家外汇管理局12月7日更新的官方储备资产数据显 示，截至2025年11月末，中国黄金储备报7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，为连续第13个月增持。世界 黄金协会的统计数据显示，10月各国央行对黄金的需求依然强劲，净购金量达53吨，环比增长36%，创 下今年迄今为止最大的月度净需求。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 12月10日，国内商品期货市场呈现分化格局，部分金属品种表现强劲。白银价格 ...

| 序号 | 合約名称 | 最新 | ■ ■ | 死价 | 英语 | 液温泉 | 人生 | 原因 | 成交量 | 酒店 | 何立理 | 日程仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 9 183005 n | 14373 | 22 | 14373 | 14375 | 5.4495 | 1 | 29 | 1814842 | 741 | 450524 | 33198 | | | 2 来运款线2602 H | 1665.2 | 2 | 1665.2 | 1656.0 | 3:41% | 10 | 6 | 35894 | 94.9 | 31382 | 669 | | 3 | 2005 2605 M | 08656 | 51 | 95960 | 95980 | 2.5696 | 136 | 14 | 620935 2400 | | 605452 | 30031 | | 4 | 9 #2601 n | 322630 | 1 | 322550 | 322630 | 2.22% | 1 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 隔夜伦敦白银大幅冲高，价格突破60美元/盎司，金银比回落至70以下。在白银未平仓合约维持高位的 情况下，盘面继续交易现货紧张、库存偏低带来的"逼仓"逻辑。料在供应问题未解决前，盘面仍可能维 持强势，需警惕价格继续冲高的风险。 宏观面来看，美国ADP最新数据显示，截至11月22日的四周内，私营部门平均每周新增4750个就业岗 位，终结了此前连续四周的就业流失局面，为近期劳动力市场带来积极信号，美元指数略有反弹，一定 程度上抑制贵金属涨势。此外，今晚美联储议息，市场普遍预期降息25BP，降息利多在此前盘面上已 基本反应完毕，若鲍威尔发言偏鹰派，或点阵图降低2026年降息次数，需提防市场"卖现实"所带来的抛 压。短线白银盘面或有较大波动，仍应谨慎为上。 资料来源：Wind、光大期货研究所 撰稿：史玥明 从业资格：F03097365 交易咨询资格：Z0017563 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观 点、结 ...

本周（2025年12月1日--12月5日）交易理想国知识星球共发布35条内容，以下是筛选出的本周精华内容片段摘要，完整版内容可扫码查看。 再创历史新高！铜价涨势还能持续多久？ 0 1 短期内，影响铜价的几个核心因素并不太容易发生根本性转折。一方面，铜精矿弹性不足和新兴产业的崛起都是长周期的，也是铜的核心驱动因素； 另一方面，美精铜虹吸效应无疑加剧了非美地区供需矛盾。 首先，国内铜供需的核心矛盾在于矿，精铜全年基本供需平衡，但原料不足，因此供需矛盾主要在铜精矿与冶炼产能不匹配上。近期CSPT成员企业达 成共识2026年度降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上，改善铜精矿供需基本面。下调铜产能负荷对精铜产量供应的影响，也是市场担忧的一个主要方面。 其次，目前全球铜工业缺口主要表现：精铜年均新增消费80万吨，废铜供应年均新增15万吨，铜精矿2025年31.8万吨的增量无法满足消费端的增长， 原料紧缺也导致铜加工费降至历史低位。 而LME铜注册仓单大幅降低，虽然并不等同于大幅出库，后续情况也需持续观察验证，但会加剧交割压力和市场的紧张情绪。在COMEX-LME溢价背 景下，非美库存向美流动成为虹吸根源，也是非美地区仓单紧张的原因 ...

当地时间5日，受投资者对美联储降息前景持乐观态度、白银ETF持仓增量等因素推动，国际白银价格 显著上涨。伦敦现货白银价格盘中一度突破每盎司59.33美元，刷新历史纪录。纽商所白银期货价格主 力合约价格当天一度逼近每盎司60美元大关，收盘报每盎司59.053美元，创历史新高，涨幅超过2.7%。 广东深圳：水贝市场白银投资趋于理性 近期白银期货波动率上升，10月以来已多次出现单日涨跌幅超5%的走势。目前白银的消费投资情况如 何。 12月5日，在深圳水贝市场，大屏上显示白银实时零售价格是16.4元每克，接近今年最高位。一家银饰 品的档口内，负责人告诉记者，白银价格的上涨对于银饰品的销售影响较小，卖得好的产品依然销量不 错，客户更关注款式。 广东深圳水贝某珠宝品牌负责人 李永长：从11月24日到今天，两周的时间涨了16%。但是这个热度跟 国庆节差很远，大家都很平静，反倒是卖出的多，买入的少，真正看长线的有，但可能公司行为多一 点。 由于受黄金加税政策的影响，市场对于贵金属的投资范围选择更广，需求也更多。有些销售门店由原来 只专注于黄金销售，现在也兼卖白银。 消费者：没有经常去关注。我觉得差别没有特别大，因为耳环什么时 ...

高位延续强势，铜市场能否也上演逼仓剧情？ 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：12月03日SHFE主力合约价格小幅走高至88970元/吨，较 前一日上涨260元；基差走强，现货升水扩大至180元/吨，LME(0-3)升贴水 维持在69.18美元/吨附近。 持仓与成交 ：LME铜持仓量收缩，12月02日减少1137手至333305手；市场 成交量清淡，终端采购以刚需为主，观望情绪较浓。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：LME库存12月03日降至28969吨，环比减少5.23%，反映短期供给 偏紧；进口铜到货减少，叠加诺德股份铜箔产能扩张计划可能增加长期供 给；覆铜板涨价显示原材料成本压力上升。 需求端 ：汽车领域需求强劲，诺德股份12月03日获得中创新航37.3万吨铜 箔订单；但高铜价抑制下游采购，再生铜杆市场成交清淡，精废价差扩大 至4182.23元/吨，终端线缆企业观望情绪浓。 库存端 ：SMM全国主流地区铜库存12月01日环比减少1.45万吨至15.9万 吨，因到货减少和出库良好；SHFE库存微增至162150吨；预期未来小幅累 库。 价格走势判断 铜期货价格预计高位震荡，驱动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [5]. Core Views - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic breakthrough in silver prices due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts and inventory depletion, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][36]. - The copper industry is seeing a deepening of the anti-involution trend in smelting, with a consensus reached among CSPT members to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% by 2026 [2]. - The lithium market is characterized by mixed factors, with prices fluctuating and strong demand expectations, particularly in energy storage [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The market is betting on a 12% interest rate cut in December, with the probability rising from 71% to 86.4% [1]. - Silver inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped to 559 tons by November 30, down 633 tons from October 8, leading to a risk of short squeeze [1][36]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory decreased by 0.8 thousand tons, with Chinese inventory down by 3.1 thousand tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: New production capacity in Xinjiang is coming online, while demand remains stable despite high prices [2]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is experiencing a rebound after a period of decline, with supply remaining relatively loose [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3.5% to 96,000 yuan/ton, with production slightly down by 1% [3]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are high due to delays in export approvals from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with domestic prices for electrolytic cobalt rising to 403,000 yuan/ton [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others are highlighted as key investment opportunities in the precious metals sector [1][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals [3]. - The potential end of the US government shutdown and the weakening labor market indicators have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and boosting copper prices. Meanwhile, the average price in the domestic spot market has risen, and the premium has slowed [12]. - For aluminum, funds are the core factor affecting prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry, and the upward trend of Shanghai aluminum depends on continuous fund inflows. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation [32]. - In November, due to intense competition for zinc ore in the smelting sector and a decrease in TC, the willingness to reduce or halt production has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction, and zinc prices are expected to have upward momentum [56]. - For the nickel industry chain, weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The price of nickel ore may remain strong in the short term, while nickel iron prices have been decreasing, and stainless steel faces pressure [72]. - For tin, supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp decline in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin will maintain high - level volatility, but there is a risk of price decline [87]. - For lithium carbonate, it is currently in a state of being prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a strong - side oscillation, but there is a risk of correction [103]. - For the silicon industry chain, the overall supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and they are expected to show wide - range oscillations [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price trends: Presented data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures prices, as well as price - to - ratio relationships [4][10]. - Price differences: Showed SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [5][7]. - Correlation: Illustrated the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar index [8][9]. - Fund positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver long - term funds [10]. - Inventory: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [11]. Copper - Futures data: Provided data on copper futures prices, including Shanghai and London copper, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [13]. - Spot data: Presented copper spot prices and premium data from different regions, as well as import profit and loss and processing fee data [17][23]. - Scrap price difference: Gave the difference between refined and scrap copper prices [27]. - Warehouse receipts: Showed the quantity and change of copper warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and international markets [28][30]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price data: Provided price data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [34]. - Price difference: Showed the price differences between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [36][38]. - Spot data: Presented aluminum spot prices, basis, and price differences in different regions, as well as alumina basis data [42][44]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures, including Shanghai and London inventory changes [50]. Zinc - Price data: Provided zinc futures price data, including Shanghai and LME zinc, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [57]. - Spot data: Presented zinc spot prices and premium data, as well as LME zinc premium data [65]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of zinc futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [69]. Nickel Industry Chain - Price data: Provided price data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including the latest price, change, and change rate, as well as trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data [73]. - Downstream profit: Showed the profit data of downstream products in the nickel industry chain, such as the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate and stainless steel [82][84]. Tin - Futures data: Provided tin futures price data, including Shanghai and LME tin, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [88]. - Spot data: Presented tin spot prices and premium data, as well as the price data of tin - related products [93]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of tin futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [98]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures price: Provided the price data of lithium carbonate futures, including the latest price, daily change, and weekly change, as well as the price difference between different contracts [104][106]. - Spot data: Presented lithium spot prices, including the prices of different types of lithium products and their price differences [108]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of lithium carbonate, including exchange inventory, social inventory, and inventory in different sectors [112]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial silicon: Presented industrial silicon spot prices, basis, and price differences, as well as futures price data and price differences between different contracts [115][116]. - Polysilicon and related products: Showed the price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain [123][125]. - Production and inventory: Displayed the production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the production capacity and output data of silicon wafers [130][134].

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks experienced a significant decline after an initial surge, with most companies turning negative in the afternoon trading session [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) fell by 3.73%, trading at 32.546 HKD [1] - Zhenfeng Gold (01815) decreased by 3.39%, trading at 2.28 HKD [1] - Tongguan Gold (00340) dropped by 3.12%, trading at 3.11 HKD [1] - Shandong Gold (01787) declined by 1.5%, trading at 38.1 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - International silver prices surged to a 45-year high due to a historical "short squeeze," which also pushed spot gold prices to new highs [1] - From September 1 to October 10, London gold prices increased by 507.25 USD/ounce, raising concerns about potential price corrections after such a significant rise [1] - Spot gold prices fell nearly 20 USD in the afternoon, currently reported at 4208.84 USD/ounce [1] Group 3: Regulatory and Risk Management - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced restrictions on a client's trading due to exceeding limits in silver futures, preventing them from opening new positions for one month [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice highlighting the volatility in international precious metal prices and urged members to enhance risk awareness and maintain market stability [1] - Investors are advised to manage risks effectively and control their positions rationally [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a bullish sentiment towards gold, with a recent price increase of 2.76% to 4111.0, and a target price adjustment by Goldman Sachs to 4900, suggesting potential for further gains in the next 3-5 months [1] - The current trading volume for COMEX gold is reported at 18.37 million contracts, with a significant increase in the highest price reaching 4112.3 [1] - The article notes that the London silver market is experiencing a situation of tight supply, indicating potential upward pressure on prices, although the exact price trajectory remains uncertain [2] Group 2 - The article highlights the recent price fluctuations in gold, with a low of 4011.3 and a current average price of 4080.0, reflecting market volatility [1] - There is a mention of a significant increase in open interest, with external positions at 86,100 and internal positions at 97,600, suggesting strong market participation [1] - The commentary on the silver market indicates a critical point of "逼仓" (short squeeze), which could lead to unpredictable price movements [2]