冠通期货研究报告 --2025年11月原油月度报告 发布日期：2025年10月27日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 10月5日，OPEC+八国决定将在11月进一步增产13.7万桶/日。下次会议将于11月2日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力。 原油需求旺季结束，不过EIA数据显示美国炼厂开工低位反弹，美国原油超预期去库，成品油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而 有所减少。俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油。不过印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石 油进口的可能。在欧美制裁俄罗斯石油公司后，印度最大的私营炼油商信实工业表示将调整炼油厂的运营以满足合规要求。由于 乌克兰加大对俄罗斯石油基础设施的打击力度，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯将柴油和汽油出口禁令延长至年底。目前俄罗 斯原油出口量仍处高位。EIA月报预计2025年四季 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term oil price is expected to rebound with oscillations, but the upside space remains limited. Supply - side geopolitical risk premiums and OPEC+ production cuts provide support, while long - term supply increases and demand substitution risks exist. Demand - side Asian seasonal restocking is nearing an end, and narrowing refinery profits in Europe and the United States suppress processing volume growth. Although the oil price may briefly break through the previous high under certain circumstances, it lacks continuous upward momentum due to the slowdown in global economic growth and non - OPEC supply elasticity [5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On October 24, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil futures main contract rose by 5.2 yuan/barrel (1.13%) to 464.9 yuan/barrel, continuing the recent upward oscillation trend. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 61.75 dollars/barrel and 65.26 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread changed from - 0.71 dollars/barrel to 0.01 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread widened by 0.72 dollars to 3.52 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive three spread narrowed from - 5.8 yuan/barrel to - 4.8 yuan/barrel [2]. - In the week of October 21, Brent crude oil speculative net long positions were significantly reduced by 57,085 contracts to 52,521 contracts, a recent low, and diesel net long positions decreased by 11,375 contracts, indicating weakening confidence in continuous oil price increases and weakening refined oil demand expectations [3]. (2) Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The pipeline fire in Iraq's Zubair Oilfield did not affect production, with September oil exports at a high of 102 million barrels. Saudi Arabia's August oil export value increased by 7% year - on - year. Russia's Ryazan refinery stopped a key processing unit due to a drone attack, which may affect refined oil exports but not crude oil production. The US opened Alaska for drilling, and India's Reliance Industries increased crude oil purchases, suggesting potential non - OPEC supply increases [4]. - Demand side: India's October services PMI preliminary value of 60.7 supported Asian crude oil import demand. However, the expected reduction in China's refined oil retail price limit may suppress refinery restocking willingness. Indonesia's plan to implement the E10 gasoline policy in 2027 may suppress traditional gasoline demand in the long term. The reduction of US diesel speculative long positions reflected weakening industrial demand expectations, and there was no significant rebound signal in EIA apparent demand [4]. - Inventory side: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, indicating limited delivery storage capacity pressure. US Cushing inventory decreased recently, but EIA commercial crude oil inventory was still at a seasonal high, and the overall OECD inventory level suppressed the upward movement of oil prices [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring (1) Crude Oil - Futures prices: On October 24, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price was 464.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.13% from the previous day. WTI was 61.44 dollars/barrel, down 0.50%, and Brent was 64.92 dollars/barrel, down 0.52% [7]. - Spot prices: Most crude oil spot prices showed an upward trend, with the Brent spot price rising by 1.61%, the Oman spot price rising by 1.37%, etc. [7]. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread increased by 149.30% to 0.35 dollars/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 36.79% to 3.83 dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread decreased by 0.85% to 3.48 dollars/barrel [7]. - Other assets: The US dollar index increased by 0.01%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.79%, the DAX index increased by 0.13%, and the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [7]. - Inventory and开工: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.23%, Cushing inventory decreased by 3.50%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.20%. The US refinery weekly开工 rate increased by 3.38%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 3.97% [7]. (2) Fuel Oil - Futures prices: On October 24, 2025, the FU fuel oil futures price was 2,814 yuan/ton, up 2.25% from the previous day, the LU was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 0.97%, and NYMEX fuel oil was 239.7 cents/gallon, up 0.57% [8]. - Spot prices: Some fuel oil spot prices increased, such as the high - sulfur 180 in Singapore rising by 2.28%, and the Russian M100 to - shore price rising by 4.75% [8]. - Paper - cargo prices: The high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) increased by 2.51% [8]. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread data was not provided, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 7.03% [8]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 8.12% [8]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation (1) Supply - On October 26, the fire in an oil pipeline in Iraq's Zubair Oilfield did not affect production, with the current daily output remaining at 400,000 barrels. Iraq's September total oil exports were 102.15 million barrels. Saudi Arabia's August oil export value increased by 7% year - on - year [9][10]. - On October 24, Russia's Ryazan refinery stopped a key processing unit after a drone attack. India's Reliance Industries bought millions of barrels of crude oil from the Middle East and the US. Italy's Eni Group raised its 2025 oil and gas production guidance, expecting an output of 171 - 172 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 and about 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter. The US announced the opening of the Alaska coastal plain for oil drilling [10]. (2) Demand - Indonesia plans to implement a policy in 2027 to make the bio - ethanol content in gasoline reach 10% [11]. (3) Inventory - On October 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, the low - sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,960 tons, and the fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,500 tons [12]. (4) Market Information - As of the week of October 21, diesel speculative net long positions decreased by 11,375 contracts to 45,766 contracts, and Brent crude oil speculative net long positions decreased by 57,085 contracts to 52,521 contracts [13]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky called for sanctions on all Russian oil companies, shadow fleets, and oil terminals. China's refined oil retail price limit is likely to be reduced on October 27 [13]. - India's October services PMI preliminary value was 60.7 [13]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC - WTI spread statistics, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [14][16][18]

尽管本轮计价周期内国际油价整体呈现跌后反弹趋势，但因其均价仍低于上轮调控周期价格，故带动国 内成品油零售价迎来年内第九次下调。至此，国内成品油零售价调整呈现"六涨九跌六搁浅"的格局。 10月27日，国家发展改革委发布消息称，近期国际市场油价波动运行，根据10月27日前10个工作日平均 价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自10月27日24时起，国内 汽、柴油价格(标准品，下同)每吨分别降低265元和255元。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心有关负责人对《证券日报》记者表示，调价周期初，受中东地缘政治紧张 局势趋缓，原油市场风险溢价有所削减。与此同时，全球经贸环境不确定性上升，加之"欧佩克+"持续 增产，使得国际油价进一步走低。以伦敦布伦特原油期货价格为例，其最低降至每桶61美元左右，为近 半年来低位。后期，受俄油供应前景不确定性增加所致，加之美俄原定将举行的峰会推迟，受此影响， 国际油价快速回升。但整体来看，国际油价平均水平仍较上一轮调价周期大幅下降。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心认为，当前局部地区地缘政治紧张局势不稳定性较大，加之欧美对部分产 油国制裁政策延续，这将对短期国际油价 ...

本轮调价后，私家车主和物流企业出行成本将有所降低。据隆众资讯测算，以油箱容量50升的普通私家 车计算，本次调价后，车主们加满一箱油将少花10.5元左右；按市区百公里耗油7-8升的车型，平均每 行驶一百公里费用减少1.5元左右；而对满载50吨的大型物流运输车辆而言，平均每行驶一百公里，燃 油费用将减少8.8元左右。 本轮计价周期内，国际油价先抑后扬。金联创成品油分析师王延婷介绍称，计价周期初期，国际能源署 警告明年油市将出现供应过剩，且国际贸易紧张局势持续，多重利空打压，国际油价持续走低。后期美 国总统特朗普宣布原定的美俄领导人会面计划被搁置，且美国决定对俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司实 施制裁，俄油供应前景不确定性增加，加之美国原油与成品油库存减少，国际油价开始宽幅反弹，但整 体均价仍远低于上轮周期价格。 继"十一"假期后国内成品油价打破连续两轮调价搁浅格局、迎来首轮下调后，今晚成品油价格将迎来更 大幅度调整。 据国家发展和改革委官网10月27日消息，即日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别下调265元、255元。 至此，国内成品油价格已经历21轮调整，呈现"六涨九跌六搁浅"格局。涨跌互抵后，年内汽、柴油价格 整 ...

Core Insights - Oil prices surged by over 7% in a single week, reaching a six-month high, driven by the dual impact of Western sanctions on Russia and easing US-China trade tensions [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in oil prices reflects a shift from resource control to expectation-driven market dynamics, indicating a new phase in global energy soft power competition [1][3] - The European Union and the United States announced new sanctions targeting major Russian oil companies, which control over 70% of Russia's oil production capacity and 55% of its oil exports, potentially affecting around 2 million barrels per day [2][4] - The market's reaction to sanctions shows that changes in rules can trigger price fluctuations more significantly than actual supply and demand changes [1][4] Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Implications - In the short term, Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate within the $60 to $70 per barrel range as the market assesses the real impact of sanctions [5] - Long-term factors include a persistent oversupply in the global market, with the IEA predicting a surplus of 4 million barrels per day by 2026, and the adaptability of Russia's oil export strategies [5] - The sanctions are likely to alter trade flows and increase transaction costs rather than significantly reduce the total volume of Russian oil exports [4][5] Group 3: Soft Power Theory Application - The concept of soft power is crucial for understanding current oil price fluctuations, emphasizing the balance between implicit rules and tangible resources [3][5] - The competition for energy soft power has transitioned from traditional resource control to the reconstruction of rules, with oil-producing countries signaling "controllable supply" through policy adjustments [3][5] - The effectiveness of sanctions is limited, as historical precedents show that the actual supply losses from sanctions are often lower than initially anticipated [4]

据国家发展和改革委官网10月27日消息，即日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别下调265元、255元。 至此，国内成品油价格已经历21轮调整，呈现"六涨九跌六搁浅"格局。涨跌互抵后，年内汽、柴油价格 整体分别较2024年底下跌745元/吨、715元/吨。 据咨询机构测算，本次调价对应的92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油每升将下调0.21元至0.22元不等。至 此，全国大多数地区车柴价格将降至6.6元-6.7元/升，92号汽油零售价将降至6.8元-6.9元/升，国内成品 油价全面步入"6元时代"。 机构预计下一轮成品油调价上调概率较大。 继"十一"假期后国内成品油价打破连续两轮调价搁浅格局、迎来首轮下调后，今晚成品油价格将迎来更 大幅度调整。 本轮调价后，私家车主和物流企业出行成本将有所降低。据隆众资讯测算，以油箱容量50升的普通私家 车计算，本次调价后，车主们加满一箱油将少花10.5元左右；按市区百公里耗油7-8升的车型，平均每 行驶一百公里费用减少1.5元左右；而对满载50吨的大型物流运输车辆而言，平均每行驶一百公里，燃 油费用将减少8.8元左右。 本轮计价周期内，国际油价先抑后扬。金联创成品油分析师王延婷介 ...

Group 1 - The company Shengbang Co., Ltd. (SZ 301233) announced the convening of its fifth board meeting on October 24, 2025, to review the proposal for amending the company's articles of association [1] - For the fiscal year 2024, the revenue composition of Shengbang Co., Ltd. is as follows: automotive industry accounts for 50.92%, electrical category 36.19%, aviation category 6.15%, petroleum industry 5.36%, and other businesses 1.39% [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Shengbang Co., Ltd. is 3 billion yuan [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The performance of domestic futures main contracts on October 27, 2025 was mixed, with some rising and some falling. The overall market showed different trends for various commodities. The prices of some commodities were affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events [6][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: On October 27, 2025, Shanghai copper opened and closed higher. Optimistic market expectations from China - US - Malaysia talks, lower - than - expected US CPI, and copper mine supply shortages due to accidents led to an upward drive for copper prices. Although high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases, low inventory and rigid demand supported the upward trend [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and fluctuated strongly. In September 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports increased. The supply side was growing steadily, while the downstream demand for energy - storage batteries was strong, which supported the price. However, there were still market risks due to the absence of news about CATL's resumption of production [11] - **Gold and Silver**: For the domestic futures main contracts as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025, funds flowed out of Shanghai gold 2512 and Shanghai silver 2512, with outflows of 1.729 billion and 1.219 billion respectively [7] - **Nickel**: Funds flowed out of Shanghai nickel 2512, with an outflow of 299 million as of 15:20 on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract rose nearly 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + decided to increase production in November, which would intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The demand peak season ended, and the market was worried about demand. However, due to factors such as the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical events, the oil price was expected to rebound from a low level [12][14] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in November decreased. The downstream construction rate increased, and the inventory was at a low level. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price was expected to follow the upward trend [15] Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream construction rate of PP increased slightly, and the enterprise construction rate was at a neutral - low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. Although the downstream was in the peak season, the demand was less than expected. PP was expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17] - **Plastic**: The plastic construction rate increased, and the downstream construction rate was at a low - level in the same period. New production capacity was put into operation, and the cost increased. The agricultural film was in the peak season, but the demand was less than expected. Plastic was expected to fluctuate weakly [18] - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price increased, the PVC production rate decreased slightly, and the downstream production rate increased. The export expectation in the fourth quarter decreased, and the inventory was high. PVC was expected to fluctuate [20] Agricultural Products - **Eggs**: The main egg futures contract rose more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [6] - **Red Dates**: The main red date futures contract fell more than 5% on October 27, 2025 [6] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe Line**: The main contract of container shipping to Europe line fell more than 2% on October 27, 2025 [7] - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and fluctuated strongly. The import of Mongolian coal decreased, and the domestic supply was short. The demand from coking enterprises supported the price, but the demand from steel mills was pessimistic. It was expected to remain strong [21][22] - **Urea**: The urea futures closed flat on October 27, 2025. The spot price rose, and the production was expected to decrease in the future. The demand was gradually ending, and the inventory was high. It was expected to fluctuate at a low level [23] - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose, with increases of 1.24%, 0.74%, 1.76%, and 0.75% respectively [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all rose, with increases of 0.05%, 0.12%, 0.15%, and 0.32% respectively [7]

黄金方面：亚盘黄金维持震荡走势，但短线颓势已经显露，形态有恶化的迹象。美国在关税问题上可能 有重大让步，关税战有望在近期结束，投资者应谨防避险情绪消退对黄金的冲击。 最近，特朗普曾威胁要对中国商品加征100%的新关税，计划从11月1日生效，但他迅速改变了立场，暗 示可能会取消这些关税。美国财长贝森特也曾表态，对中美谈判持乐观态度，美国不再考虑对华加征 100%关税，种种迹象表明关税问题可能接近尾声。 智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，目前美国的最新通胀数据已经上升到3%，而圣诞前后是美国的消费高 峰期，美国的通胀问题可能会更加严峻，同时降息已经是确定性事件，这些将迫使美国不得不结束关税 大战，短期内市场避险情绪可能会消退，黄金短期可能受挫。 技术面：黄金日线收小阴线，前期反弹势头被打破，重心有下移的迹象。1小时周期高点下移，低点保 持水平，下降中继形态明显，短线大概率还有低点，日内可关注上方4095美元一线的压力。 原油方面：上周原油出现强势反弹，目前价格在重要阻力区域受阻，价格出现调整迹象，但油价前景依 旧不太乐观，油价若要保持反弹势头，消费端必须有明显改善。 来源：智昇财论 技术面：美元指数日线连续收小阳线，上 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China will be reduced due to the decline in international oil prices, effective from October 27 at 24:00 [1] - The price adjustments are as follows: gasoline will decrease by 265 yuan per ton, and diesel will decrease by 255 yuan per ton [1] - The average national price reduction for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel is 0.21 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.22 yuan per liter, respectively [1] Group 2 - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will result in a savings of 10.5 yuan [1]