国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年04月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：现货成交持续弱势，短期弱势运行 ➢ 国际现货：中国散装小颗粒离岸价266.01-268.01美元/吨，高端下调1美元/吨；黑海小颗粒港口离岸价350.01-360.01美元/吨，上调2-5美元/吨； 波罗的海小颗粒港口离岸价345.01-355.01美元/吨，上调2-5美元/吨；中东小颗粒港口离岸395.01-400.01美元/吨，上调5美元/吨；巴西小颗粒CFR 价格375.01-390.01美元/吨，高端上调10美元/吨；印度到岸价385.01-398.25美元/吨，较上周持平。由于目前出口法检政策仍严格，国际国内价格 背离格局延续。 ➢ 国内现货：目前基层对尿素的采购积极性仍较弱。从周四至周日，现货成交持续清淡，短期现货预计仍偏弱运行。4月27日报价，天庆下跌至1750元 /吨、临沂下跌至1800元/吨、东平贸易回调至1760元/吨、心连心 ...

期货研究报告|尿素周报 2025-04-27 需求未明显提升，上游库存累积 策略摘要 前期部分装置陆续恢复，尿素产量持续提升，供应端高位运行，上游库存累积。受南方 部分地区干旱影响，下游农业需求推后，短期仍处于空档期，工业需求减弱，复合肥开 工率小幅走低，五一假期临近，下游刚需采购为主，目前处于尿素旺季，等待下游实际 需求来临。煤炭与天然气价格稳中偏弱运行，尿素成本端持稳。国内出口政策维持收紧， 港口库存小幅波动，建议关注尿素出口相关政策情况。 周度产业信息 ■ 市场分析 海外价格：截至 4 月 25 日，小颗粒中国 FOB 报 267 美元/吨（-1），波罗的海小颗粒 FOB 报 350 美元/吨（+4），印度小颗粒 CFR 报 392 美元/吨（0）；中国大颗粒 FOB 报 272 美元/吨（-1）。 生产利润：截至 4 月 25 日，煤制固定床理论利润-174 元/吨（-20），煤制新型水煤浆 工艺理论利润 284 元/吨（-30），气制工艺理论利润-151 元/吨（-60）。 供应端：截至 4 月 25 日，企业产能利用率 83.6%（-2.1%）。企业总库存量 106.5 万吨 （+15.9），港口 ...

司尔特近日发布公告称无法在预定期限内披露2024年年度报告，这一事件的核心问题源于公司全资子公 司贵州路发实业有限公司的财务造假与管理人员职务侵占。 2． 股价暴跌压力：投资者情绪已受重创，公告发布后股价较2024年高点下跌约20%，且控股股东国购 产业质押的1.23亿股已跌破平仓线，可能引发爆仓连锁反应。 此次事件暴露了公司内控体系的重大缺陷。早在2024年，独立董事吴玉光、朱克亮就因"黄席利涉嫌职 务侵占"案件无法获得充分证据，对年报真实性提出质疑，但案件长期无进展，形成"挂案"，使得历史 财务数据的可信度持续受损。此次公告进一步证实，造假行为与职务犯罪直接相关，公司既是财务造假 的责任主体，也是内部人员侵占资金的受害者。 从市场影响看，司尔特面临多重风险： 1． 退市风险：根据深交所规则，若公司未能在法定期限（2025年4月30日）披露年报，股票将于5月4 日起停牌；停牌两个月后若仍无法披露，将被实施退市风险警示（*ST）；此后若再逾期两个月，可能 直接终止上市。 值得注意的是，公司此前发布的业绩预告显示2024年净利润同比增幅超100%，表面数据亮眼，但此次 事件揭示其业绩增长可能建立在虚假财务基础上 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a strong performance in Q1, with compound fertilizer sales increasing by approximately 35% year-on-year [1] - The sales growth of new-type fertilizers was even higher, marking the highest sales volume for the same period in the company's history [1] - This strong sales performance lays a solid foundation for achieving the annual sales targets [1]

股票代码：603395 股票简称：红四方 公告编号：2025-020 中盐安徽红四方肥业股份有限公司 2024 年度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监管规则适用指引第 3 号——行业信息 披露》其《第十三号——化工》的要求，中盐安徽红四方肥业股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"）2024 年度主要经营数据如下： 二、主要产品及原材料的价格变动情况 （一）主要产品的价格变动情况（不含税销售均价） | 主要产品 | 2024 年销售价 | | 2023 年销售价 | | 变动比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | | （元/吨） | | （%） | | 尿素 | | 1,970.35 | | 2,335.54 | -15.64 | | 复合肥（含脲铵氮肥、 | | 2,414.57 | | 2,618.85 | -7.80 | | 水溶肥、硫酸铵） | | | | | | （二）主要原材料的价格变动 ...

股票代码：603395 股票简称：红四方 公告编号：2025-021 中盐安徽红四方肥业股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监管规则适用指引第 3 号——行业信息 披露》其《第十三号——化工》的要求，中盐安徽红四方肥业股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"）2025 年第一季度主要经营数据如下： 本公告披露的生产经营数据来自本公司内部统计，该等数据未经审计，仅为 投资者及时了解本公司生产经营概况之用，未对公司未来经营情况作出任何明示 或默示的预测或保证，敬请投资者审慎使用，注意投资风险。 二、主要产品及原材料的价格变动情况 特此公告。 （一）主要产品的价格变动情况（不含税销售均价） | 主要产品 | 2025年第一季度销售 | 2024年第一季度销售 | 变动比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价（元/吨） | 价（元/吨） | （%） | | 尿素 | 1,668.31 | 2,067.91 | -1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 16.38, reflecting a 4% upside based on a 13x PE for 2025 [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.58 billion, RMB 1.82 billion, and RMB 2.08 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.26, RMB 1.45, and RMB 1.66 [2][9]. - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of RMB 15.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.32 billion, up 8.99% year-on-year [10][11]. - The company is actively enhancing its market competitiveness by reserving phosphate resources and establishing joint ventures to increase phosphate self-sufficiency [12]. Financial Summary - The company's financial performance shows a projected revenue growth from RMB 15.10 billion in 2023 to RMB 19.77 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.1% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from RMB 1.21 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.08 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 14.7% [3][8]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 3 per 10 shares for the fiscal year 2024, amounting to approximately RMB 376.42 million, which represents 28.63% of the annual net profit [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing importance of potassium fertilizer supply in ensuring food security in China amid global trade tensions and supply chain disruptions [2][3][4] - In the first quarter of 2025, Yara International (亚钾国际) significantly increased its domestic supply efforts, achieving a sales volume of 528,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 77%, with domestic sales accounting for 81% of total sales [2] - The company contributed positively to domestic potassium fertilizer supply, with 1,741,400 tons sold in 2024, of which 1,346,600 tons were for domestic sales, representing approximately 77% of total sales [2] Group 2 - The global potassium fertilizer market is facing increased uncertainty due to trade tensions, particularly the U.S. imposing tariffs on Canadian potassium fertilizer, which is a major supplier [4][5] - Brazil's potassium chloride imports reached a historical high of 2.6 million tons in Q1 2025, a 6% year-on-year increase, driven by expectations of rising potassium fertilizer prices [5] - China's potassium fertilizer import dependency has risen to around 70% in 2024, with total imports reaching 12.6325 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.14% [6] Group 3 - Yara International's production capacity expansion to 5 million tons is crucial for ensuring stable potassium fertilizer supply for China, especially as domestic production faces challenges [6][7] - The company has optimized production processes and expanded capacity, with its potassium chloride imports from Laos increasing from 128,000 tons in 2020 to 2.072 million tons in 2024, making Laos the fourth largest source of potassium fertilizer for China [6] - The establishment of a dynamic potassium fertilizer reserve mechanism is suggested to enhance supply stability, reducing reliance on traditional import channels [7]

Group 1 - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.668 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 515 million yuan, up 49.61% year-on-year [1] - The increase in revenue is primarily driven by higher product sales, with a gross margin of 18.2%, which is an improvement of 2.53 percentage points compared to the overall gross margin in 2024 [1] - The volatility in the prices of single fertilizers has ended since Q3 2023, leading to a recovery in the operating order of compound fertilizer producers and distributors, which is expected to gradually restore the gross margin levels of ammonium phosphate and compound fertilizers to reasonable levels [1] Group 2 - The company has strengthened its integrated industrial chain advantage, being the largest producer of ammonium phosphate in China, and has enhanced its cost advantage by increasing self-sufficiency in raw materials [2] - The concentration of the compound fertilizer industry is increasing, with smaller companies being eliminated, which benefits larger firms with resource and channel advantages [2] - The company is positioned as a leading enterprise in the compound fertilizer sector, benefiting from land transfer opportunities [2] Group 3 - The strong demand for compound fertilizers is reinforced by the emphasis on food security, with domestic consumption largely unaffected by recent tariff policies [3] - The company is actively promoting the phosphate new materials circular economy industrial park project, with significant production capacity expected from the integration of phosphate mines [3] - The expected production capacity from the two mines is 3.3 million tons per year, which will significantly enhance the company's integrated industrial chain advantage and profitability [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the success of XinYangFeng Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. in the fertilizer industry, achieving top rankings in various production categories for 2024 [1] - The company has transitioned from a "single soldier" marketing model to a "four-person group" team approach, significantly improving its market performance [3][6] Company Performance - XinYangFeng ranked first in national compound fertilizer production, second in monoammonium phosphate production, and third in pure phosphate production [1] - The company has seen a substantial increase in sales, with specific markets like Guangdong's Lianjiang and Suixi experiencing a 2.6 times growth in sales over three years due to the new marketing strategy [6] Marketing Strategy - The previous "single soldier" model was ineffective in the competitive market, leading to a bottleneck in sales growth [2] - The new "four-person group" model allows for collaborative efforts, with teams of 3 to 5 members working together to cover larger market areas [3][4] - The model emphasizes resource sharing, with roles assigned based on individual strengths, enhancing overall team effectiveness [3] Team Dynamics - The "four-person group" model has improved team morale and productivity, with members reporting increased motivation and collaboration [6] - The company has implemented a performance evaluation system that ties team success to individual rewards, fostering a competitive yet cooperative environment [3][4] Future Outlook - The innovative marketing approach is expected to continue driving growth and enhancing customer satisfaction, leading to increased brand loyalty [6] - The company aims to maintain its momentum in the fertilizer market by leveraging the strengths of its new team-based strategy [6]