Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rebound of urea prices is due to improved agricultural demand and export quotas, but its sustainability remains to be verified. The short - term price center of urea has shifted upward, and the short - term range of the 01 contract is 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to order receipt and inventory reduction of high - level inventories [3]. Summary by Directory Market Changes - The price of urea has stabilized and rebounded. On November 7, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1667 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from last week, a 2.58% increase. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1594 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week, a 1.59% increase [3][4]. - The main - contract basis of urea has weakened. On November 7, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 73 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (-78) - (-61) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea has strengthened. On November 7, the 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (-86) - (-67) yuan/ton [3][7]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of Chinese urea enterprises is 83.55%, up 2.61 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 72.89%, up 2.29 percentage points from last week, and the daily average output of urea is 18.35 tons. Next week, some overhauled units in Shanxi, Xinjiang, and Ningxia will resume production, and new production capacity in Xinjiang is planned to be put into operation, with no units scheduled for overhaul, so supply is expected to continue to increase [3][10]. Cost - The anthracite market continues to be strong. As of November 6, the含税 price of washed anthracite small lumps (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi is 880 - 950 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 30 yuan/ton from the same period last week [3][13]. Demand - The autumn harvest and sowing are in progress. Northern winter wheat is in the concentrated sowing period, and late rice in the South is in the large - scale harvesting stage. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 31.04%, remaining flat from last week. The inventory of compound fertilizers is 70.11 tons, down 0.33 tons from last week. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased, and the speed of finished - product inventory reduction has slowed down. Other industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin have strengthened [3][18][22]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory is 134.2 tons, up 2.5 tons from last week, changing from inventory reduction to inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory is 20.5 tons, down 1.3 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts is 4585, equivalent to 9.17 tons, an increase of 3130 from last week [3][28]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer enterprises, the reduction and overhaul of urea units, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of urea is 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term urea is expected to be supported in a volatile range. The mid - stream's continuous replenishment and new export quotas support prices, while policy regulation weakens the downward pressure from high domestic supply [2][3] - The domestic fundamentals of urea face relatively large pressure, but policy regulation reduces the intensity of the downward drive. In the fourth quarter, it is a "buyer's market" in China. The 01 contract has a strong resistance level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Content Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,668 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The trading volume was 321,705 lots, an increase of 172,820 lots, and the open interest of the 01 contract was 268,588 lots, a decrease of 6,554 lots. The basis in Shandong was - 67 yuan, down 3 yuan, and the UR01 - UR05 spread was - 67 yuan, up 16 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices of most urea producers remained stable, with only Jiangsu Linggu increasing by 10 yuan to 1,620 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi increased by 20 yuan and 30 yuan respectively. The industry's operating rate was 80.69%, up 0.43 percentage points, and the daily output was 188,760 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons [1] Industry News - On November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from the previous week, a 1.53% increase. Some regions' inventories increased due to environmental protection and market demand changes [2]

中泰期货尿素周报 ——尿素生产成本上移 尿素出口再度放开 2025 . 1 1 . 9 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | 产业链 | | 2025年10月31日-11 | 2025年11月7日-11 | 2025年11月14日-11 | 2025年11月21日-11月27 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 月6日 | 月13日 | 月20日 | 日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量： | 19.35 | 19.86 | 20.00 | 20.14 | 上周新增1家企业停车，停车企业恢复4家，本 周预计1家企业计划检修，3家停车企业恢复生 | | | 万吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 产(预估数据来自隆众资讯） | | | | | | | | 2025年第45周(20251031-1106)，复合肥本周期产能利 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, particularly in the phosphorous chemical sector, driven by strong demand for lithium iron phosphate and rising electricity costs, leading to price increases for most phosphorous chemical products [4][24][29] - The report highlights a trend of "anti-involution" in the caprolactam industry, with a 20% production cut agreed upon by manufacturers to stabilize prices [5] - The overall chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.72% this week, indicating a positive market sentiment [16] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The phosphorous chemical market is seeing a favorable demand for lithium iron phosphate, with prices for yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid rising due to strong cost support and limited supply [4][24] - The average price of yellow phosphorus reached 22,486 CNY/ton, up 2.34% from the previous week [24] - Phosphoric acid prices have also increased, with an average of 10,530 CNY/ton, reflecting strong market orders [4][25] Key Products - The price of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate (MAP) has risen to 6,082 CNY/ton, a 2.32% increase from the previous week, driven by stable demand and limited supply [4][26] - The price of diammonium phosphate (DAP) remains stable at 3,596 CNY/ton, with cautious purchasing behavior observed among traders [4][27] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the chemical sector such as Xingfa Group and Yuntianhua, while beneficiary stocks include companies like Hubei Yihua and Chuanheng Co [4][6][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrated operations in the phosphorous chemical sector, which enhances competitive barriers and supports long-term profitability [29] Market Performance - The chemical industry index reported a 3.54% increase this week, with 72.59% of the stocks in the sector showing positive performance [16][21] - The report tracks price movements across 226 chemical products, with 63 products seeing price increases and 96 experiencing declines [17]

Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report focusing on urea, dated November 7, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the domestic urea market may experience a rebound due to the news of the fourth batch of export quotas, but in the medium - to - long - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose and the market is expected to run weakly [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose, closing at 1667 (+27/+1.65%) [3] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices increased with fair trading volume. The factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1530 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1550 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1530 - 1540 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1410 - 1490 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 7, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.79 tons, an increase of 0.20 tons from the previous working day and 1.44 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.61%, a 3.44% increase from 81.17% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: Maintenance devices are gradually resuming operation, and the average daily production has increased to around 19.6 tons. Urea production enterprise inventories have slightly increased by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, remaining at a high level [5] - **Demand Side**: The market rumor of the fourth batch of export quotas (about 600,000 tons) has increased the influence of the international market on the domestic one. However, the compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is winding up, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. The overall domestic demand is showing a downward trend [5] - **Price Trend**: The domestic spot price is oscillating between 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the news of export quotas will boost market sentiment, but in the medium - to - long - term, the market will still be weak due to the approaching end of autumn fertilizers and the upcoming "vacuum period" of domestic demand [5] Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Short - term rebound [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]

出口消息提振，盘面触底反弹 尿素月报 2025/11/07 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结 | 尿素产业链月度价格数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 面 | | | 盘 | | | | | | 合 约 | 月 底 | 月 初 | 变 动 | 月 差 | 月 底 | 月 初 | 变 动 | | 09合约 | 1736 | 1742 | - 6 | 9-1价差 | 111 | 7 2 | 3 9 | | 01合约 | 1625 | 1670 | -45 | 1-5价差 | -78 | -47 | -31 | | 05合约 | 1703 | 1717 | -14 | 5-9价差 | -33 | -25 | - 8 | | 国内现货市场 | | | | ...

| 产品 | 项目名称 | 投资总额 | 拟使用募集资金投资额 | 项目建设期(月) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 年产 30 万吨腐植酸智能 高塔复合肥项目 | 20,126.52 | 20,126.52 | 12 | | 2 | 年产 15 万吨生物肥生产 线建设项目 | 11,003.20 | 11,003.20 | 12 | | 3 | 环保低碳生物研发中心 | 6,122.04 | 6,122.04 | 12 | | ব | 补充流动资金 | 4,000.00 | 4,000.00 | | | | 合计 | 41,251.76 | 41,251.76 | | 农大科技本次发行的保荐机构是国金证券股份有限公司，保荐代表人丁峰、付泽胜。 截至招股说明书签署日，铭泉投资持有公司3,257.56万股股份，占公司股本总额的54.29%，系公司的控股股东。马学文直接 持有公司10%的股份，并持有公司控股股东铭泉投资80%的股权，铭泉投资目前持有公司54.29%的股份，故马学文通过直接持股 和控制公司的控股股东铭泉投资实际控制公司64.29%的股份。同时，马学文系公司 ...

Group 1 - The fertilizer sector saw an increase of 1.98%, ranking 10th among concept sectors, with 54 stocks rising, including Hai Xin Neng Ke and Lu Hua Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers in the fertilizer sector included Fu Xiang Pharmaceutical and Ba Tian Co., which rose by 14.01% and 9.18% respectively [1] - The sector experienced a net outflow of 241 million yuan in main funds, with 26 stocks receiving net inflows, and Tian Qi Lithium leading with a net inflow of 308 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The top stocks by net inflow ratio included Lu Tianhua, Lu Hua Technology, and Hai Xin Neng Ke, with ratios of 41.81%, 31.64%, and 20.62% respectively [3] - The highest trading volume in the fertilizer sector was recorded for Tian Qi Lithium, with a trading volume of 30.77 million yuan and a turnover rate of 6.92% [3] - Other significant stocks included Chang Qing Co. and Lu Hua Technology, with net inflows of 85.84 million yuan and 83.53 million yuan respectively [3][4]

Group 1 - The A-share market for phosphorus chemical stocks has shown strong performance, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Qing Shui Yuan and Hunan Yu Neng [1][5] - The chemical ETFs have also performed well, with notable increases in their values, such as the Fortune Fund Chemical 50 ETF rising by 3.42% [1][3] - The price of yellow phosphorus has increased due to supply constraints from wet-process phosphoric acid plants and recovering demand from the battery sector [5][6] Group 2 - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged, reaching nearly 120,000 yuan per ton, marking an increase of over 140% in less than four months [6] - The chemical fertilizer sector is experiencing positive sentiment, driven by delayed new capacity for phosphate rock and a rebound in domestic fertilizer demand [6][11] - The chemical industry is expected to see improved profitability and valuation due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic recovery [11][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the domestic urea market showed a "first decline then rise" trend, affected by weather, supply - demand, and policy. Currently, the urea price is relatively low, and with the expected stabilization of coal prices, the downside space is limited. However, the supply will remain at a high level year - on - year, the demand is in the off - season, and the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern persists. In the fourth quarter, the urea market will face continuous supply pressure, lack strong demand drivers, and is likely to fluctuate at a low level [2][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In mid - and early - October, after the National Day holiday, continuous rainfall delayed agricultural activities, weakening terminal purchasing willingness and increasing enterprise inventories. With the weakening of export support, prices declined. In mid - and late - October, prices reached a low of 1460 - 1470 yuan/ton, then demand increased, and positive policy signals boosted confidence, leading to price recovery. As of October 31, the Shandong Linyi market price was 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the urea 2601 contract closed at 1625 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.69% [6] Agricultural需求季节性推迟 - In October, agricultural urea demand was "delayed" due to continuous rainfall, which postponed corn harvest and wheat sowing, delaying fertilizer demand. Farmers adopted a "buy - as - you - use" strategy, increasing supply - demand imbalance. In the compound fertilizer sector, production and capacity utilization decreased in October, with a production of 362.87 million tons, a 22.16% month - on - month decline, and an average capacity utilization of 28.18%, down 8.02% month - on - month and 1.94% year - on - year. In September, urea exports were strong, with 137.12 million tons, but exports may decline in October [10][11][12] Supply高位运行 - In October, China's urea production was 588.19 million tons, an increase of 13.42 million tons from the previous month and a decrease of 0.71 million tons from the same period last year. There were new device overhauls and new capacity resumptions, with a slight reduction in overhaul losses, leading to production growth [17] Factory库存压力较大 - In October, domestic urea factory inventories first rose and then fell. In mid - and early - October, rainfall reduced demand and increased inventories. In mid - and late - October, inventories decreased slightly but remained high. At the end of October, factory inventories were 155.43 million tons, a 33.82% month - on - month and 30.30% year - on - year increase. Port inventories decreased significantly, ending at 21 million tons, a 57.69% month - on - month and 4.11% year - on - year decrease [19][20] 后市展望 - In terms of cost, coal prices are expected to stabilize, and cost support for urea prices may emerge. In terms of supply - demand, gas - based urea enterprises will enter the overhaul period in November, but coal - based production will remain high, and supply pressure persists. In November, agricultural demand enters the off - season, with demand mainly supported by reserves. Overall, the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a low level in the fourth quarter [26]