(2) 港股的投资者比较现实。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） A股小盘股还是经常会有牛市行情。 例如2025年A股的中证2000涨幅就较高， 主要由量化私募带来了增量资金流入，推 动小盘股上涨比较多。 港股就比较少有这类行情。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 港股指数的涨跌，大多数都是业绩驱动。 估值不高，有业绩，那就上涨;估值高, 没业绩，可能跌的也很惨。 以港股科技指数为例，2021年-2022年， 港股科技指数下跌近70%，就是因为出现 了「估值降低」+「盈利下降」的双杀熊市 行情。 到了2023年,港股科技股业绩逐渐企稳, 没有继续大幅下降，不过市场还是不太景 气，在底部震荡了一年多。 ...

Group 1 - ExxonMobil plans to cut approximately 2,000 jobs globally, which represents about 3% to 4% of its total workforce of approximately 61,000 employees [1][4] - The layoffs are part of a broader restructuring effort following the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion in 2024, with previous cuts of nearly 400 employees in Texas last November [4][6] - The layoffs at ExxonMobil have prompted similar actions from its affiliate, Canadian Natural Resources, which announced a 20% reduction in its workforce, affecting around 900 employees [1][6] Group 2 - The energy sector is undergoing significant adjustments, with major companies like Chevron and BP also announcing layoffs of 15% to 20% and over 5%, respectively, while ConocoPhillips plans to cut 20% to 25% of its workforce [6][9] - The U.S. oil and gas production industry has already lost 4,700 jobs in the first half of the year, reflecting a trend of reduced activity in key oil-producing states due to fluctuating oil prices [6][9] - Brent crude oil futures have dropped approximately 10.5% this year, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and instability in U.S. trade policies [7] Group 3 - The current wave of layoffs is not limited to the energy sector, with over 800,000 job cuts announced across various industries this year, marking the highest number since the pandemic began in 2020 [9][13] - In July alone, U.S. employers laid off 62,075 workers, a significant increase from 25,885 in the same month last year, representing a 140% rise in layoffs compared to the previous year [9][13] - The technology sector is particularly hard-hit, with companies like Microsoft and Intel planning significant layoffs to redirect resources towards artificial intelligence and address poor performance [11][13]

昨晚美股探底回升后三大指数集体收涨，其中道指上涨0.17%，纳指上涨0.39%，标指上涨0.06%，纳指 和标指再创历史新高。盘面上，银行延续、科技走强，中概股冲高回落，黄金收出阴十字星。 COMEX黄金高开低走后冲高回落，截止收盘下跌0.3%报3880.8美元/盎司，盘中最低报3842.8美元/盎 司，最高报3923.3美元/盎司。对于黄金，目前是矛盾的，一方面是对高价的恐惧，一方面是趋势。 理财就是一场修行，有人修有人度，结果就是看谁踩准了点，把握住了机会。 银行股延续弱势，其中花旗集团下跌1.39%，美国地图下跌1.02%，摩根士丹利下跌1.01%，美国银行、 高盛、齐昂银行等股均小幅收跌。 科技股延续强势，其中英特尔大涨3.78%，超威公司上涨3.49%，META、高通等股涨幅均在1%上方； 特斯拉逆势大跌5.11%，微软、奈飞小幅收跌。 中概股冲高回落后维持在中轴上方窄幅盘整，截至收盘中国金龙上涨1.06%。其中阿里巴巴大涨 3.59%，蔚来上涨3.14%，网易上涨2.14%，百度上涨2.03%；贝壳、爱奇艺、京东等股逆势小跌。 ...

10月3日周五，美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布的数据显示，美国服务业9月陷入停滞。订单和商业活动疲软，就业也连续第四个月萎 缩。 美国9月ISM非制造业指数50，大幅不及预期的51.7，前值52。50为荣枯分水岭。9月ISM服务业PMI低于媒体调查的所有经济学家的预 估。 重要分项指数方面： 数据公布后，美国10年期国债收益率短线震荡于4.10%-4.08%区间，两年期美债收益率在美国ISM服务业PMI发布时跳水至3.54%下 方、日内整体转跌、瞬间又反弹至接近3.555%的水平。 分析指出，作为美国经济最大组成部分的服务业表现令人失望。本周早些时候的一份报告显示，美国ISM制造业PMI连续第七个月收 缩。由于美国政府停摆导致官方数据缺失，经济学家和决策者将更多地依赖ISM调查等私营机构的报告来洞察就业市场和整体经济状 况。 当日稍早公布的另一重要美国PMI数据显示： S&P Global Market Intelligence首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示： 9月份服务业增长略有放缓，但整体仍然足够强劲，使得第三季度整体表现令人印象深刻。再加上制造业的持续增长，服 务业活动的扩张表明， ...

Market Overview - The Dow is experiencing a triple-digit gain, with the S&P up by 15 points and the NASDAQ increasing by 52 points [1] Fixed Income Strategy - The current environment is favorable for fixed income, particularly with the Federal Reserve potentially cutting rates, making yields attractive [2] - Focus is on higher quality credit, with a preference for municipal bonds due to strong fundamentals, including robust rainy day funds and high savings rates [3][4] - Senior loans and emerging market debt are also being considered, especially as tariff-related issues have stabilized [5] Economic Concerns - There are concerns about a slowing economy, particularly in the employment market, which could be impacted by a government shutdown [6] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 28th may see the Fed lacking sufficient data to make informed rate cut decisions [7] Earnings Outlook - Third quarter earnings are expected to show strong year-over-year growth, with a consensus forecast of 8.8%, primarily driven by technology stocks [8] Valuation Insights - U.S. markets are trading at a premium compared to historical averages, largely due to the influence of technology and artificial intelligence [9] AI and Market Trends - The current landscape of AI investments is seen as different from the late 1990s bubble, with companies being larger and more profitable [15] - The structural trend of AI is expected to drive U.S. stocks higher, despite potential short-term volatility [16] - Historical data suggests that when the S&P is up significantly year-to-date, markets tend to end higher by year-end [17]

文 | 三思社 来源 | 三思社 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 "要接受新的地缘政治和宏观经济范式，其核心是现代重商主义……发达国家的重商主义也是对制造业空心化痛苦的防御性反应。随着 全球化造成的不平衡被视为不公，重商主义走向主流……特朗普政府的议程具有现代重商主义的全部特征——美国政府正进行史上最大 规模之一的行政权力扩张来主导经济……国家安全成为产业政策的驱动力" ——桥水基金 8月11日报告《Navigating Through a Time of Extraordinary Change》 在上一篇文章 大宗商品会有新一轮牛市吗? 中，我们从配置转移的角度描绘了未来几个季度商品整体走势的推力，也笼统描述了一下我们 目前所处的周期位置。 而这一篇文章，我们再讲一些美国具体的政策层面和经济层面的动因，和原油期货接近08年低位的净多头仓位。 从政策层面看，目前小部分华府观察家认为，市场把TACO等同于Trump1.0，是低估了本届共和党政府的"再工业化和实施现代重商主 义"的战略决心（至于在中期选举临近的压力下，他能不能做到先另说）； 对特朗普战略决心的忽视，意味着市场也可能战术性的低估了特朗普政 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在股票市场进入四季度之际，多家公募发布2025年四季度策略，看好赚钱效应持续演绎。 基于居民存款搬家以及海外增量资金的持续涌入，基金经理对四季度A股和港股市场行情给予乐观判 断，预期市场延续震荡抬升格局，行情有望在政策呵护中逐级上移。A股和港股的科技股、新消费、互 联网、创新药等四大方向是布局的核心。 公募判断后市增量资金涌入 政策呵护与增量资金，已成为基金持续做多的信心基础。 鹏华基金表示，随着大盘指数突破十年新高，当前A股整体定价回归到合理状态。结构上看，股债再平 衡是推动近期ERP修复的主因，而市场对于成长定价依旧维持极度乐观。活跃资金加仓、机构由债入股 是近期主要的增量，存款搬家还在起步阶段，但后市具备较大潜力。 "对比历史，科技行情整体还未到过热阶段，科技行情有产业基本面变化的支撑。"鹏华基金强调，四季 度需关注科技板块内部局部拥挤度过高的问题，从平衡组合收益与波动的角度，在交易层面可以关注涨 幅相对滞后且基本面有积极变化的方向。 平安基金认为，今年增量资金供给有所提速，年初以来，资金供需波动有所加大，年初两融配合ETF共 同 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the performance of CTA strategy products does not always correlate directly with the rise in commodity prices, leading to confusion among investors [2] - Investors often mistakenly perceive CTA funds as simple long positions in commodity futures, expecting net asset values to rise with commodity indices, which is a misunderstanding of the complex nature of CTA strategies [2][3] - A simplistic understanding of "trend" leads investors to overlook the importance of trend quality, specifically "trend smoothness," which significantly impacts the profitability of CTA strategies [3] Group 2 - The market can be categorized into three types: high smoothness trend markets, low smoothness oscillating markets, and misleading low smoothness trend markets, each affecting CTA strategy performance differently [4] - High smoothness trend markets allow for consistent profitability across various strategies, while low smoothness oscillating markets present challenges due to unclear direction and frequent reversals, leading to potential losses [4][5] - Misleading low smoothness trend markets can result in net asset values lagging behind price increases due to frequent large reversals, making it difficult for CTA strategies to accumulate profits [6][7] Group 3 - Investors can optimize their strategies by adopting multi-strategy CTA products in low smoothness trend markets, which can provide diverse sources of returns and smooth overall net asset value curves [8] - High smoothness trends may indicate potential market reversals, prompting managers to be cautious of excessive market sentiment [9] - In low smoothness trend markets, controlling drawdowns is more critical than pursuing profits, and investors should focus on the manager's historical drawdown and recovery time [11]

Group 1 - The strong performance of Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks has attracted widespread attention from investors, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 27,000 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index reaching a new high since November 2021 [1] - The market rebound is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as evidenced by a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the U.S. private sector in September, which was significantly below market expectations [1] - In the Hong Kong market, technology stocks, semiconductors, and gold stocks led the gains, with SMIC rising by 12.70%, driven by optimism surrounding AI and high-tech infrastructure development [1] Group 2 - Analysts maintain an optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, anticipating continued upward movement due to policy easing and external liquidity expectations, particularly in the context of ongoing AI industry trends and the increasing likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - The U.S. stock market is also benefiting from the AI boom, with technology stocks, especially those related to AI, performing exceptionally well despite the federal government budget impasse [2] - Chinese concept stocks in the U.S. market are seeing notable performance, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, with companies like Alibaba, NIO, and Baidu experiencing stock price increases [2] Group 3 - The long-term allocation value of Hong Kong stocks is considered high due to their low valuation levels and unique asset allocation in internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - Overall, the market sentiment remains optimistic for Hong Kong and Chinese concept stocks, with investors closely monitoring international capital flows and developments in the technology sector to identify potential investment opportunities [3]

银行股集体回落，其中花旗集团大跌2.75%，美国银行、高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利等股跌幅均在1% 上方；齐昂银行、联合银行、阿莱恩斯西部银行等股均小幅收跌。 低开高走后三大指数集体收涨，其中道指上涨0.09%，纳指上涨0.42%，标指上涨0.34%。盘面上，银行 集体回撤、科技反转走强化，中概股探底回升，黄金再创新高。 COMEX黄金冲高回落，截止收盘上涨0.13%报3892.6美元/盎司，盘中最低报3880.3美元/盎司，最高报 3922.7美元/盎司，金价再创历史新高。对于黄金，目前是矛盾的，一方面是对高价的恐惧，一方面是 趋势。 理财就是一场修行，有人修有人度，结果就是看谁踩准了点，把握住了机会。 科技股延续强势，其中英伟达大涨7.12%，特斯拉上涨3.31%，超威公司上涨1.37%，英伟达、高通、谷 歌、微软等股均小幅收涨；奈飞逆势下跌2.34%，META下跌2.32%。 中概股高开高走，特别是临近尾盘的上翘，截至收盘上涨1.44%。其中百度大涨4.3%，京东上涨3.4%， 阿里巴巴上涨2.27%，小鹏汽车、拼多多、哔哩哔哩、贝壳等股涨幅均在1%上方。 ...