Group 1: Economic Stability - Nanjing's GDP for the first half of the year reached 917.918 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.2% in the first half, with 30 out of 37 major industrial sectors showing growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 81.1% [2] - The production of green and intelligent products, such as new energy vehicles, integrated circuits, and industrial robots, saw significant increases of 45.0%, 22.1%, and 44.2% respectively [2][4] Group 2: Service Sector Growth - The operating income of service enterprises above designated size reached 351.217 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [5] - The information transmission, software, and IT service sectors experienced a revenue growth of 10.3%, with emerging industries like internet services growing by 17.4% [5][6] - The sports industry, driven by events like "Su Chao," saw a revenue increase of 19.3% [6][8] Group 3: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - High-tech industries accounted for 55.8% of the total industrial output value, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% in high-tech manufacturing [9] - Notable growth was observed in pharmaceutical manufacturing (11.6%), aerospace equipment (18.5%), and computer manufacturing (78.2%) [9] - Companies like Nuo Wei Zhan are expanding internationally, enhancing their core competitiveness and brand influence [11] Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Experts suggest that Nanjing's economy shows strong resilience and potential for further breakthroughs, particularly in the third sector [15][17] - There is a call for increased policy support for rapidly growing industries such as industrial robots and artificial intelligence applications [16] - The integration of cultural, sports, and tourism sectors is seen as a key path to boost domestic demand and consumption [17]

来源：招商证券策略研究 本报告聚焦"反内卷"政策背景下行业产能出清的潜力与路径，通过梳理产能周期规律、复盘历史出清案例、分析当前行业财务信号，探讨哪些行业有望更 快实现低效产能退出。 核心观点 ⚑近年来，"过度内卷"频发，带来由点及面的连锁负面效应：企业层面陷入价格战导致盈利恶化、库存积压、现金流紧张；行业层面竞争失序，中小企业 加速出清、技术升级受阻，陷入低水平重复建设；宏观层面资源错配，产业链协同效率下降，抑制整体创新与高质量发展，反内卷政策背景下，多行业响 应抑制"内卷式"竞争。 ⚑实现"反内卷"与产能出清，需要价格机制、市场竞争机制与产业政策三大路径协同发力。价格机制通过市场化筛选淘汰高成本企业；竞争机制通过破产 清算与并购整合实现资源优化配置；产业政策则通过管控产能、标准约束和激励引导加速结构调整；推动行业向高质量、可持续发展转型。 ⚑复盘过去三轮周期的演绎逻辑，可以发现每一轮周期均呈现"扩张-内卷-出清-重构"的螺旋式演进，产能出清需要通过政策调控与市场机制的协同，推动 资源向高效领域集中。市场表现方面，政策或事件催化往往会形成短期的上涨行情，但重点行业持续的获得超额收益的阶段仍在基本面的改善时期 ...

2002年，刚从学校毕业的魏文锋进入广州数控设备有限公司（简称"广州数控"），成为一名基层员工。 那是朝气蓬勃的千禧年代，广东在改革开放的浪潮中跃身成为"世界工厂"。"岭南衣、粤家电"和"东莞 塞车全球缺货"见证着广东制造业高速发展的黄金时期。 一晃23年过去了，科技创新和产业升级成为新时代的主题，广东在新旧动能转换中，快马加鞭培育新质 生产力。 魏文锋也从一名"新兵蛋子"成长为广州数控智能制造工程中心总监、高级工程师、全国技术能手，并带 领着一波波新人入行。 他亲历了行业变迁与公司变化：机器换人、AI进厂，300台设备只要10个人就能管理过来。数据显示， 我国有着世界上规模最大的工程师队伍，科学家与工程师的总体规模已接近2000万人，与G7国家同类 人才数量的总和相当。 但是，当经济发展进入深水期，工程师队伍的结构性短板也开始显现。有研究指出，我国工程师队伍规 模虽然庞大，但梯度尚不合理。此外，目前还存在高技能人才比重偏低、中小企业缺口大、产教融合不 够深入等问题。 事实上，这个痛点普遍存在。中国人事科学研究院课题组一项调研指出，当前，各类高校"千校一 面""校企脱节、人才培养错位"成为工程师培养的痛点难点 ...

Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guangzhou's GDP reached 1,508.099 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The primary industry added value was 11.234 billion yuan, growing by 4.2%; the secondary industry added value was 370.587 billion yuan, growing by 2.1%; and the tertiary industry added value was 1,126.278 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [1] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value in Guangzhou increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the automotive manufacturing sector facing challenges, showing a decline of 5.7% [2] - New energy vehicle production accelerated, with cumulative output growing by 9.5%, an increase of 8.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - The integrated circuit manufacturing sector saw a significant increase in added value by 30.0%, while production of LCD modules, analog chips, and industrial robots grew by 150%, 19.5%, and 19.0% respectively [2] - Fixed asset investment in Guangzhou grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 4.2% and real estate development investment recovering with a growth of 4.1% [2] Consumer Market Recovery - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Guangzhou reached 561.122 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, improving by 2.4 percentage points from the first quarter [3] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles, communication equipment, home appliances, and furniture showed strong demand, with significant increases in sales [3] - Online retail sales of physical goods grew by 16.4%, and restaurant revenues through online platforms increased by 10.9% [3] - By the end of June, the balance of deposits and loans in Guangzhou's financial institutions reached 17.69 trillion yuan, with deposits growing by 4.7% and loans by 5.0% [3]

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, Guangzhou's GDP reached 1,508.099 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.8% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 11.234 billion yuan, growing by 4.2%; the secondary industry added value was 370.587 billion yuan, growing by 2.1%; and the tertiary industry added value was 1,126.278 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [1] Industrial Performance - Guangzhou's industrial output above designated size increased by 0.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year [3] - The automotive manufacturing sector faced challenges, with added value declining by 5.7%, although the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter due to product transformation and new model sales [3] - New energy vehicle production accelerated, with cumulative output increasing by 9.5%, up 8.8 percentage points from the first quarter [3] - The integrated circuit manufacturing sector saw a significant increase in added value by 30.0%, with production of LCD modules, analog chips, and industrial robots growing by 150%, 19.5%, and 19.0% respectively [3] - The aerospace and aviation equipment manufacturing sector's added value grew by 17.1%, with civil drone production surging by 37.7% [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Guangzhou increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.2% and real estate development investment recovering with a growth of 4.1% [3] - Investment in the automotive manufacturing sector increased by 19.3%, while investment in computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing grew steadily by 6.0% [3] Consumer Market Dynamics - The retail sales of consumer goods in Guangzhou reached 561.122 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, which is an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the first quarter [5] - Demand for goods in sectors such as new energy vehicles, communication equipment, home appliances, and furniture saw significant growth due to subsidy coverage [5] - Online shopping and booking trends increased, with online retail sales of physical goods growing by 16.4% and restaurant revenues through public networks increasing by 10.9% [5] Financial Sector Insights - As of the end of June, the balance of deposits and loans in Guangzhou's financial institutions reached 17.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [5] - The deposit balance was 9.23 trillion yuan, growing by 4.7%, with household deposits increasing by 10.5% [5] - The loan balance was 8.46 trillion yuan, up by 5.0%, with significant growth in household medium- and long-term loans and loans to enterprises [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The focus is on the A-share market and various sectors including TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, machinery, defense, and computers. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Status and Trends** - The A-share market has entered the second phase of a bull market, driven by increased operating cash flow of listed companies and a decline in capital expenditure, leading to continuous growth in free cash flow. The intrinsic return rate of the CSI 300 index reached 7.3%, surpassing the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicating a scarcity of high-yield assets and driving demand for high-quality stocks [2][3][10]. 2. **Industry Configuration Recommendations** - Current industry configuration should focus on high-quality companies with good operating cash flow and improving profitability. Key sectors to focus on include AI-driven fields such as humanoid robots, solid-state batteries, controllable nuclear fusion, new consumption, innovative drugs, military trade, and semiconductors [1][4][21]. 3. **Performance of Recommended Sectors** - In the previous month, recommended sectors such as pharmaceuticals, defense, non-ferrous metals, electronics, automation equipment, and computers achieved over 11% growth, outperforming the market by approximately 3% [8][21]. 4. **Economic Data Insights** - June economic data showed a continued recovery, with supply-side performance outpacing demand. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year due to weak demand, while industrial capacity utilization dropped to historical lows [9][11]. 5. **Impact of Anti-Competition Policies** - The anti-competition policy aims to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic and excessive competition in industries. This has led to a significant decline in industrial capacity utilization, necessitating a focus on industries facing potential capacity clearance [11][12]. 6. **Sector-Specific Recommendations for August** - Recommended sectors for August include non-bank financials (especially securities), pharmaceuticals (especially chemical drugs), electric equipment, machinery, defense, and computers, based on their low valuations and potential for performance improvement [21][22]. 7. **Valuation and Growth Potential** - Non-bank financials are currently valued at around 22 times earnings, below the historical average, while the pharmaceutical sector is experiencing improvements due to policy changes. Electric equipment and machinery sectors are also expected to benefit from government initiatives and infrastructure projects [22][25]. 8. **Performance of TMT Sector** - The TMT sector's second-quarter performance was significantly influenced by AI innovations, with substantial growth expected in semiconductor, consumer electronics, and gaming sub-sectors [17][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Financial Indicators of Capacity Clearance Industries** - Industries facing capacity clearance show weak financial indicators, including low capital expenditure growth and high debt levels, indicating a need for careful monitoring [12][15]. 2. **Consumer Sector Performance** - The consumer sector has shown weaker performance, with retail sales growth below expectations, although certain categories like home appliances and communication equipment have maintained double-digit growth [6][19]. 3. **Potential for Rotation in Low Valuation Sectors** - Sectors with low valuations and limited growth, such as electric equipment, non-bank financials, and consumer goods, are expected to see rotation and potential upward movement in the market [20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and strategic investment opportunities.

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by significant tax reforms and development, with total tax revenue expected to exceed 155 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 80% of total fiscal revenue [1] - Cumulative new tax reductions and exemptions are projected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan, with export tax refunds exceeding 9 trillion yuan, effectively promoting economic and social development [1] Tax Reduction and Economic Impact - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," a series of tax and fee reduction policies have been implemented, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 9.9 trillion yuan from 2021 to mid-2023, with an expected total of 10.5 trillion yuan by the end of the year [2] - Tax reductions focused on supporting technological innovation and advanced manufacturing, with 3.6 trillion yuan in reductions, accounting for 36.7% of the total [2] - The private economy benefited significantly, with 7.2 trillion yuan in tax reductions for private taxpayers, representing 72.9% of the total [2] Manufacturing and Innovation Growth - Manufacturing development has shown stable growth, with sales revenue from manufacturing enterprises maintaining a 29% share of total enterprise revenue from 2021 to 2024 [3] - High-end and intelligent manufacturing sectors have seen annual sales revenue growth of 9.6% and 10.4%, respectively, with significant year-on-year increases in 2023 [3] - R&D expense deductions have been optimized, with 3.32 trillion yuan in deductions expected for 2024, marking a 25.5% increase from 2021 [3] Green Taxation and Environmental Policies - The green tax system has been continuously improved, with environmental protection and resource taxes generating 2.5 trillion yuan in revenue from 2021 to mid-2023 [4] - Tax incentives for green development have resulted in 1.5 trillion yuan in reductions, reflecting a balanced approach to environmental taxation [4] Personal Income Tax Reforms - The personal income tax system has been refined to promote equitable distribution and improve living standards, with the top 10% income earners contributing approximately 90% of total personal income tax [5] - The number of individuals benefiting from special deductions has increased significantly, with over 1 billion people enjoying these deductions in the recent tax settlement [6] Smart Taxation Initiatives - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a smart taxation system to enhance the tax payment experience, reducing the need for physical visits and paperwork [7] - By mid-2023, over 61 million taxpayers had utilized digital invoices, accounting for over 90% of total invoice amounts, improving efficiency in financial transactions [8]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period in China is characterized by steady economic growth and significant tax reforms, with total tax revenue expected to exceed 85 trillion yuan, an increase of 13 trillion yuan compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2] - A series of tax reduction and fee reduction policies have been implemented, with an estimated total of 10.5 trillion yuan in new tax cuts and fee reductions, significantly aiding economic recovery [1][3] Tax Revenue and Economic Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," tax revenue is projected to surpass 155 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 80% of total fiscal revenue, with tax revenue (excluding export tax rebates) expected to exceed 85 trillion yuan [2] - The tax revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, with a 3.4% year-on-year decline in 2024 and a 1.2% decline in the first half of the year [5] Tax Reduction Policies - From 2021 to mid-2023, new tax cuts and fee reductions totaled 9.9 trillion yuan, with expectations to reach 10.5 trillion yuan by the end of the year, averaging over 2 trillion yuan annually [3] - The majority of tax cuts have benefited the private sector, with private enterprises receiving 7.2 trillion yuan in tax reductions, accounting for 72.9% of the total [3] Emerging Industries and Tax Contributions - Traditional industries like real estate are experiencing slower growth, while emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and high-tech manufacturing are showing strong growth, with sales revenue increasing by 37.6% annually [4] - The contribution of new productive forces to tax revenue is on the rise, with private enterprises' sales revenue increasing from 68.9% in 2020 to 71.7% in mid-2023 [4] Individual Tax Policies - A series of individual income tax deductions have been introduced, including increased deductions for childcare, education, and elder care, aimed at alleviating family financial burdens [7][8] - Over 1 billion individuals benefited from these deductions, with a significant portion of the benefits going to middle-aged individuals with dependents [7] Future Tax Reforms - The recent policy discussions emphasize the need to improve the individual income tax system, suggesting a more equitable distribution of tax burdens among different income types [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the economic half-year report of 31 provinces in China serves as a comprehensive assessment of the country's economic performance, influencing everything from national policy to local market prices [1] - The overall GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is reported at 5.5%, which is an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter, but the performance varies significantly among provinces [3] - High growth rates in provinces like Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, exceeding 6.5%, are attributed to their strong energy resources, while provinces with lower growth rates must focus on sustainable development rather than just speed [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the importance of "new engines" for economic growth, highlighting that provinces with a high proportion of high-tech industries, such as Guangdong and Jiangsu, are better positioned for resilience against economic fluctuations [4][5] - The concept of "energy transition" is introduced, indicating a shift from traditional resource-based growth to technology and innovation-driven growth, with provinces adopting different strategies to achieve this [6] - Provinces like Zhejiang and Guangdong are leading the way in digital economy and manufacturing upgrades, while others like Shanxi and Hebei are transitioning from coal and steel to renewable energy and new technologies [6][7] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the significance of optimizing the business environment as a crucial economic catalyst, with various provinces implementing measures to streamline processes for businesses [9][10] - The focus on fairness in the business environment is highlighted, with examples of provinces ensuring equal treatment for all types of enterprises, which is essential for fostering a healthy economic ecosystem [10][11] - The need for stable policies is stressed, as frequent changes can deter investment and create uncertainty for businesses [11] Group 4 - Promoting consumption is identified as a key strategy for economic growth, with consumer spending contributing 77.2% to economic growth in the first half of the year [12] - The article argues that the root cause of low consumer spending is not merely a lack of incentives like coupons, but rather concerns about stable income and future security [12][13] - Strategies to increase consumer confidence include raising wages, reducing financial burdens, and creating new spending opportunities that align with changing consumer preferences [13][14] Group 5 - The article concludes that while there are challenges ahead, there is potential for economic improvement in the second half of the year, provided that local governments and businesses take proactive measures [15] - It emphasizes the importance of genuine efforts from businesses to innovate and adapt rather than relying solely on government support [15] - The overall message is one of resilience and collaboration, suggesting that with collective effort, economic conditions can improve significantly [15]

一是制造业发展量稳质升。发票数据显示，2021—2024 年，制造业企业销售收入占全部企业的比 重保持在 29% 左右，为经济增长提供了重要支撑。特别是制造业"高端化、智能化"稳步推进，装 备制造业和高技术制造业销售收入年均分别增长 9.6% 和 10.4%，今年上半年同比分别增长 8.9% 和 11.9%。其中，新能源车、光伏设备、锂电池"新三样"销售收入年均增长 37.6%；工业机器 人、服务消费机器人制造业销售收入年均分别增长 23.2% 和 17.2%。 二是创新动能增势较好。研发费用加计扣除是促进科技创新的重要税收支持政策。"十四五"期 间，我国研发费用加计扣除政策不断优化、力度不断加大，其中 2024 年度企业享受研发费用加计 扣除 3.32 万亿元、享受户数 61.5 万户，较 2021 年度分别增长 25.5% 和 16.7%，为我国研发投入 强度提高到 2.68% 发挥了关键作用。 三是民营经济稳步壮大。发票数据显示，民营经济销售收入占全国比重由 2020 年的 68.9% 提高 至今年上半年的 71.7%。其中，工业机器人、新能源汽车领域的民营企业 2021—2024 年销售收 入，年均分 ...