格隆汇12月22日｜高盛分析师发布报告指出，中国企业盈利明年可能增长14%，2027年或增长12%，有 助于提振股市表现。在"希望到增长"的周期中，将存在10%的估值重估潜力，Kinger Lau等分析师在报 告中写道，重申中国股市到2027年可能上涨38%。上市公司海外营收增长预计将推动MSCI中国指数成 分股盈利到2030年每年增加约1.5%，中国AI科技生态系统的估值已重新评估，但考虑到中国在资本支 出方面的潜在增长空间以及对人工智能商业化的重视程度，与美国相比仍然显得便宜。由于贸易情况好 于预期，出口股表现优于消费股。 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 ...

智通财经获悉，受地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及市场预期美联储明年将进一步降息的影响，白银价格继续 创下历史新高，黄金价格也随之走高。周一，截至发稿，现货白银价格上涨1.84%，至68.3995美元/盎 司。现货黄金价格上涨至接近4383美元/盎司，突破10月份创下的4381美元以上的历史高位，此前两周 价格持续走高。 受投机性资金流入和10月份历史性轧空后持续的供应紧张局面提振，白银价格持续走强。本月初，上海 白银期货总成交量飙升至接近几个月前供应紧张时期的水平。 高盛分析师Daan Struyven和Samantha Dart等人在上周晚些时候的一份报告中表示，预计明年黄金价格将 进一步上涨，基本目标价为每盎司4900美元，存在上行风险。他们指出，ETF投资者正开始与各大央行 争夺有限的黄金储备。 来源：智通财经 地缘政治紧张局势也增强了贵金属的避险吸引力。美国加大了对委内瑞拉的石油封锁力度，进一步施压 委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的政府;与此同时，乌克兰首次在地中海袭击了一艘隶属于俄罗斯影子舰 队的油轮。 贵金属正迎来历史性的一年，黄金和白银均有望创下自 1979 年以来最大的年度涨幅。白银价格已翻了 一番多， ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global stock market will yield positive returns by 2026, although the forecasted index return rate will be lower than in 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The expected stock market return rate in USD is 13%, with a total return including dividends of 15%, primarily driven by profit growth rather than valuation increases [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in March and June of next year [1] Group 2: Comparative Market Performance - The U.S. stock market has underperformed compared to other markets for the first time in 15 years, with higher returns coming from Europe, Asia, and emerging markets [1] - This trend of U.S. stock market underperformance is expected to continue, with a slight lag anticipated again in 2026 [1] Group 3: Sector Insights - There is a noted shift in technology capital expenditure towards "old economy" sectors, which is expected to boost growth prospects in infrastructure-related industries [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month forecast for the European STOXX index from 595 points to 615 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent divergence between the strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) and the decline of the stock market, particularly in Hong Kong, raising questions about the underlying factors driving these trends [2][4][15]. Group 1: RMB Strength and Stock Market Divergence - The RMB has appreciated by 1.3% against the USD since early October, nearing the 7.0 mark, while the Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 15% from its peak [2][4]. - Historically, a strong RMB correlates positively with stock market performance, as it typically indicates foreign capital inflow and a favorable economic outlook [2][4][6]. - The recent divergence is attributed to different driving factors for the RMB and the stock market, suggesting that the traditional correlation may not apply in the current context [4][15]. Group 2: Historical Context and Analysis - The historical relationship between the RMB and the stock market has predominantly been one of alignment, with notable exceptions occurring only twice in the past: from March to June 2013 and from July 2021 to October 2022 [9][10]. - In both historical instances, the divergence was resolved either by the stock market aligning with the RMB or vice versa, influenced by policy interventions and economic fundamentals [10][12]. - The article emphasizes that the current divergence is rare and highlights the importance of growth and capital inflow as key pricing factors for both the RMB and the stock market [7][14]. Group 3: Current Economic Conditions - The recent RMB appreciation is primarily driven by a record trade surplus of $1.08 trillion and a weakening USD, rather than significant foreign capital inflows into the stock market [15][25]. - Domestic economic indicators show a weakening trend, with PMI below the growth threshold and negative growth in fixed asset investment, suggesting that the stock market's decline reflects underlying economic pressures [22][26]. - The article posits that the RMB's strength is more a result of external factors, such as the USD's performance and seasonal capital flows, rather than improvements in domestic economic conditions [25][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the divergence between the RMB and the stock market may persist, as the factors causing this divergence are not expected to change in the short term [28][29]. - The future trajectory of both the RMB and the stock market will depend on the direction of economic fundamentals and whether policy measures can effectively address the current economic challenges [31][36]. - A significant policy response aimed at stimulating domestic demand could potentially realign the RMB and stock market trends, but without such measures, the divergence may continue [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - Regulators have concluded a settlement that previously prevented investment bankers from influencing research analysts, potentially altering the dynamics of investment research and banking relationships [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The settlement aimed to separate investment banking from research to ensure unbiased analysis [1] - Ending this settlement may lead to increased collaboration between investment bankers and researchers, which could impact the integrity of research outputs [1] Group 2: Implications for Investment Banking - Investment banks may now have more leverage in shaping research opinions, which could enhance their ability to promote certain investment products [1] - This change could lead to a shift in how research is conducted and perceived in the market, potentially affecting investor trust [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has abandoned the second round of layoffs for the second half of the year, with M&A revenue in Q2 soaring by 71% year-on-year [1] - JPMorgan plans to increase bonuses for its investment banking and trading departments by approximately 15% [1] - The financial services sector in Hong Kong has fully recovered, ranking first globally, driven by government support and policies in the Greater Bay Area [1] Group 2 - There is a fierce competition for ESG talent among major financial institutions, with many stating that they have budgets approved but cannot find suitable candidates [2] - The demand for ESG-related positions is increasing, with firms like Ernst & Young offering salaries as high as 50K for ESG roles [3][4] - The lack of professionals with both financial expertise and ESG knowledge is evident, making such individuals highly sought after in the job market [7] Group 3 - The Shanghai Human Resources Bureau has included the CFA and Sustainable Investing Certificate in its list of recognized qualifications, providing benefits for holders [6] - The global sustainable finance market has surpassed $35 trillion, with the U.S. alone accounting for $17 trillion, highlighting the financial impact of ESG [15] - By 2025, over 60 countries will implement mandatory ESG disclosures, affecting more than 80% of multinational companies [16] Group 4 - The job market for ESG roles is expanding, with positions such as ESG investment analysts and green finance product managers emerging, offering salaries ranging from 300,000 to 600,000 [25] - Hong Kong's government has initiated a "talent grab" plan to attract ESG professionals, recognizing the shortage in this area [26] - Financial professionals with ESG knowledge are considered a scarce resource, making them highly competitive in the job market [28] Group 5 - The CFA Institute has introduced the Sustainable Investment Certificate, which is recognized for its high industry credibility [41] - Local governments are incentivizing ESG practices, with rewards for companies achieving high ESG ratings and support for ESG talent [42] - Practical experience in ESG, combined with knowledge and certification, is essential for professionals looking to enhance their employability in this field [38][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aiming to provide efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Content - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - The platform features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots [4]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - CICC Insight includes over 160 industry research frameworks and more than 40 premium databases, offering comprehensive industry data [10]. - The platform also features an AI search function for efficient information retrieval and analysis [10].

格隆汇12月21日｜大宗交易先驱Robert Mnuchin(罗伯特·姆努钦)在位于美国康涅狄格州Bridgewater的家 中去世，时年92岁。姆努钦在高盛集团工作过33年，期间帮助该公司成为大宗交易的创新者，服务于大 型机构客户的需求，成为"公认的大宗交易泰斗"。从高盛/华尔街退休之后，姆努钦化身艺术品经纪 商。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is expected to become the lead underwriter for SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO), leveraging its close relationship with CEO Elon Musk [1] Group 1: IPO Preparation - Elon Musk has not yet selected the lead underwriter, but a decision may be made by the end of the year, with the full underwriting syndicate potentially finalized shortly thereafter [1] - Although preparations are underway, the IPO is contingent on market conditions, and SpaceX may choose to delay or abandon the listing altogether [1] Group 2: Morgan Stanley's Role - Morgan Stanley has provided advisory services to Musk for many years, including participation in Tesla's 2010 IPO, which involved a syndicate that included Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank [1] - The firm also acted as an advisor and led financing in Musk's acquisition of Twitter (now X) in 2022 [1] Group 3: Future Plans - SpaceX's CFO, Bret Johnsen, indicated in an internal memo that the company is preparing for a public listing in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects the global stock market to continue its bull market into 2026, with a market capitalization-weighted total return rate of 15%, primarily driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [4][5][10]. Economic Environment - The global economy is projected to maintain a comprehensive expansion in 2026, supported by further moderate easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, providing solid support for the stock market [5][6]. - The current market is defined as being in the "optimistic" phase of the cycle, characterized by increased investor confidence and potential upward pressure on valuations [5][6]. Market Trends - The report indicates a significant broadening trend in the global stock market, with non-U.S. markets expected to outperform U.S. stocks, breaking the previous concentration pattern [4][10]. - In 2025, it was noted that for the first time in nearly 15 years, U.S. stocks underperformed compared to other major markets, with total returns in Europe, China, and Asia nearly double that of the U.S. [10][11]. Earnings Growth - Goldman Sachs forecasts that all regions will achieve sustained positive earnings growth in 2026, with the S&P 500 expected to see a 12% growth, STOXX 600 at 5%, Japan's TOPIX at 9%, and Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) at 16% [8][10]. - The contribution of the top seven tech giants to S&P 500 earnings is expected to decrease from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026, indicating a further decline in industry concentration [11]. AI Dividend - The AI dividend is anticipated to further expand in 2026, benefiting a broader range of industries and companies beyond core tech giants, particularly those that can leverage AI to enhance profitability and productivity [4][12][16]. - The spillover effects of tech capital expenditures are expected to drive growth in industrial, materials, and financial sectors, creating a cross-industry growth wave termed "AI + industry" [16]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in focus among investors towards AI beneficiaries outside the tech sector, as competition intensifies and cost structures evolve within the AI landscape [14][15]. - Historical data suggests that in the absence of a recession, even with high valuations, the stock market is unlikely to experience significant pullbacks or bear markets [6].