摩根士丹利的策略师表示，随着人工智能的热潮支撑起强劲的销售前景，美国科技股仍有进一步上涨的 空间。 由威尔逊（Michael Wilson）领导的团队指出，大型科技股的营收增长预期已达到"数十年来的高点"， 而经过近期的市场波动，其估值已经有所下降。与此同时，软件股的暴跌为微软和Intuit Inc．等公司提 供了"极具吸引力的入场点"。 威尔逊在报告中写道："在重大的投资周期中，上周那样的波动并不罕见。尽管如此，人工智能赋能型 企业的基本面利好依然存在，且我们认为人工智能采用者的交易价值仍被低估。" 对于那些开始质疑人工智能巨额投资回报的投资者来说，他的观点无疑是一种安慰。纳斯达克100指数 经历了自2025年12月以来最大的单周跌幅，而那些被认为可能受到人工智能冲击的公司股价在某些新工 具发布后也出现了下跌。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 来源：金十数据 摩根士丹利的策略师表示，随着人工智能的热潮支撑起强劲的销售前景，美国科技股仍有进一步上涨的 空间。 虽然美股"七巨头"的整体表现依然跑赢大盘，但在科技股的溃败中受损也更为严重。目前，彭博"七巨 ...

Group 1 - The estimated profit for today is +70,000 (assets of 5.5 million), with a total profit of +119,000 across two accounts, resulting in a profit-loss ratio of +1.49% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology index has rebounded after a 20% correction from its peak, indicating a potential upward trend [1] - The recent surge in AI applications has led to significant gains, with the Media ETF rising over 4% and the Software ETF increasing over 3% [5] Group 2 - In January, there were 546,300 new fund accounts opened, representing a month-on-month increase of 123.8% and a year-on-year increase of 168.72% [6][9] - The increase in new fund accounts suggests a significant influx of retail investor capital into public funds [6] - The actual increase in fund shares will be assessed when the fund association releases data at the end of February [7][9] Group 3 - The surge in new fund accounts may be influenced by short-term arbitrage opportunities, particularly related to silver LOF [8] - If new account openings continue to rise in February, it would indicate a shift of household savings into financial products [9] - Conversely, a decline in new account openings would suggest that many new accounts were opened for short-term trading rather than long-term investment [9] Group 4 - The A-share market temperature is at 71.36, up 1.6 degrees from the previous trading day, while the Hong Kong market temperature is at 54.41, up 1.9 degrees [10][11] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [11]

盘前市场动向 1. 2月9日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.06%，标普500指数期货跌0.17%，纳指期货跌0.33%。 | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.32%，英国富时100指数跌0.13%，法国CAC40指数涨0.03%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.21%。 | | --- | | 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油涨0.44%，报63.83美元/桶。布伦特原油涨0.41%，报68.33美元/桶。 | 市场消息 非农+CPI本周来袭。展望本周，市场迎来关键数据窗口期。周二，美国商务部将公布12月零售销售数据;原定于上周公布的1月非农就业报告因政府短暂停摆 而延迟，将于周三发布。经济学家预计上月将新增7万个非农就业岗位，失业率预计维持在4.4%不变。这份非农就业报告发布之际正逢美国劳动力市场显露 不稳迹象。另外值得注意的是，本次1月非农就业报告除涵盖常规月度非农就业和失业数据外，还将包含年度就业修正数据。外界预计，修正数据将显示截 至2025年3月的一年里，美国就业增长幅度大幅低于最初公布的水平。周五则将迎来关键通胀数据。美国劳工统计局将发布消费者价格指数(CPI)报告，市场 ...

Virta Health首席执行官萨米·因基宁表示，自己唯一感觉"成功了"的时刻是2008年还清10万美元债务时。他直到37 岁才拥有第一辆车，并且"享受简朴生活"。图片来源：Courtesy of Virta Health 人们一想到市值数十亿美元公司的首席执行官，很容易产生刻板印象：一位西装革履、精致得体的商业 精英，乘坐私人飞机在全球各地参加会议，身边总跟着助理团队。但并非所有企业家都会用浮华的生活 方式来享受成功的成果，有些人只是为终于还清学生贷款而心怀感激。 连续创业者萨米·因基宁在其20年的职业生涯中，一手创立了三家公司，并将其发展壮大，其中包括两 家独角兽公司。作为Virta Health的首席执行官，虽然他凭借商业成功积累了财富，但他并不在意自己的 净资产。事实上，因基宁直到还清银行账户里那笔10万美元的学生贷款，才第一次觉得自己算是"有钱 人"。 因基宁在接受《财富》杂志采访时表示："我人生中只有在那一刻觉得自己很富有。之后，我就再也没 有把心思放在钱上。"2008年，在与人联合创办房地产搜索公司Trulia三年后，他出售了一部分二级市场 股份，税前收入50万美元。"那时我终于有足够的钱还清 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月9日｜随着市场对人工智能颠覆商业模式的担忧持续发酵，对冲基金大举增加了对美国股票的 做空头寸。高盛集团大宗经纪业务团队在客户报告中表示，上周单只股票的名义卖空规模创下该行自 2016年有数据以来的最高纪录。该团队援引1月30日至2月5日期间的资金流向称，卖空交易规模是多头 买入的两倍。市场对AI如何重塑经济的焦虑在华尔街引发了动荡的一周。软件、金融服务和资产管理 领域的164只股票上周市值合计蒸发6110亿美元。总体来看，对冲基金已连续第四周净卖出美股，抛售 速度创下今年4月初所谓"解放日"以来最快。高盛团队指出，信息技术板块是抛售最严重的领域，净流 出规模创过去五年第二高。其中软件股主导了下跌行情，约占该板块净卖出量的75%。对冲基金对软件 股的总净敞口降至2.6%，多空比率下滑至1.3——两者均创历史新低。 ...

US futures dropped into the red on Monday morning, reversing some of their strong relief rally gains from the end of last week, ahead of a new stack of economic data in the coming days. Apart from consumer inflation expectations, there is no data today, but later on in the week there will be retail sales, mortgage application and January's delayed non-farm payrolls release. Nasdaq futures were down 0.5%, with those for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones down 0.3% and 0.2%, retreating from the highs seen at the end o ...

摩根士丹利策略师表示，由于人工智能的热潮支撑了强劲的销售前景，美国科技股还有进一步上涨的空 间。由Michael Wilson领导的团队表示，大型科技股的营收增长预期已达到"数十年来的最高水平"，而 近期市场波动后，其估值有所下降。与此同时，软件股的暴跌也为微软(MSFT.US)和财捷(INTU.US)等 一些股票创造了"极具吸引力的买入机会"。 Wilson在一份报告中写道："像上周那样的时期在重大投资周期中并不罕见。尽管如此，人工智能赋能 者行业的基本面依然强劲，我们认为人工智能采用者市场的价值仍然被低估了。" Wilson的观点或许能让那些开始质疑人工智能领域巨额投资回报的投资者感到安心。上周，纳斯达克 100指数遭遇了自去年12月以来最大的单周跌幅，那些被认为可能受到人工智能冲击的股票在Anthropic 新工具发布后纷纷下跌。 "七大科技巨头"指数目前的市盈率约为29倍，略低于五年平均水平。上周五有一些逢低买入者入场，但 市场走势表明这种情况可能只是暂时的，纳斯达克100指数期货周一下跌0.7%。 Wilson团队的分析显示，投资者尚未以更具结构性的方式加强对资本支出的约束。这位策略师表示，资 本支 ...

智通财经APP获悉，专家表示，他们对美国股市能否延续上周人工智能引发的暴跌后1万亿美元的反弹 势头信心有限。上周五的强劲反弹——标普500指数创下去年5月以来最佳单日表现——抹去了上周的大 部分跌幅。然而，投资者仍在努力定价不明朗的美国经济前景，并日益担忧人工智能将如何重塑各行各 业，尤其是本次动荡的中心——软件行业。 上周五的强劲走势背后，隐藏着市场对这波行情信心不足的迹象。标普500指数的预期波动率高于今年 平均水平，表明市场不安情绪依然存在。成交量也印证了市场缺乏热情，较五日平均水平低约13%。高 盛的做空头头寸组合上涨约9%，创下4月以来最佳单日表现，这表明部分反弹可能源于交易员平仓风险 较高的股票。 富国银行投资研究所全球股票和实物资产主管Sameer Samana表示："人工智能的主题已经从惠及所有股 票转变为赢家通吃。在市场能够区分赢家和输家之前，将难以确定领头羊并创造新高。" 值得注意的是，上周的下跌并非完全与人工智能有关。还有疲软的美国劳动力市场数据引发了人们对经 济前景的担忧，加剧了股市、大宗商品和加密货币的下行压力。诚然，上周五公布的一份报告显示，美 国消费者信心指数升至六个月来的最高点 ...

美元对日元汇率小幅走弱，最新报 156.71 日元，较上周五尾盘的 157.10 日元有所下跌。 美股上周五强势反弹，科技股收复本周初大部分失地，比特币也止住暴跌势头，受此影响，美股期货小 幅走高。标普 500 指数期货上涨 0.1%，道琼斯工业平均指数期货上涨 0.2%。 日本首相高市早苗领导的执政党在议会选举中斩获三分之二绝对多数席位后，东京日经 225 指数在周一 盘中一度大涨 5%，创历史新高。 欧洲早盘交易中，德国 DAX 指数上涨 0.6%，报 24864.59 点；法国巴黎 CAC40 指数微涨 0.2%，报 8288.06 点；英国富时 100 指数上涨 0.3%，报 10399.61 点。 上周五，标普 500 指数大涨 2%，创 5 月以来最佳单日表现；道琼斯工业平均指数飙升 2.5%，首次站上 50000 点关口；纳斯达克综合指数大涨 2.2%。 科技股反弹、美股走强叠加其他利好消息，推动全球股市在周一早盘集体走高。 东京市场方面，日经 225 指数最终收涨 3.9%，报 56363.94 点，盘中一度触及 57337.07 点的日内历史新 高。 此次执政党在选举中大胜，让高市早苗拥有了 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. stock market is facing a significant downward shock, and investors should be cautious of the spill - over risk of the U.S. stock market during the long holiday. Global risk preference has shifted, and it is advisable to exit long positions in stock index futures and reduce positions in equity assets before the holiday [1][64]. Summary by Related Catalogues U.S. Stock Market - The expectation of the balance - sheet reduction policy of the incoming Fed Chairman Wash has severely hit the silver market and changed the market risk preference, leading to an upward movement of the U.S. dollar index [3][5]. - The Nasdaq is on shaky ground, with retail trading dominating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new high is a result of the rotation of funds in the U.S. stock market, which is a dangerous signal for technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq [8][11]. - The S&P software index has been severely hit due to the acceleration of AI substitution, and $400 billion in private equity credit funds are in trouble. Amazon's 2026 capital expenditure guidance has increased to $200 billion, but the market has responded negatively [13][16]. - Due to power constraints, the growth of U.S. computing power may slow down significantly, and AI progress will hit a ceiling. Microsoft in MAGA7 has tumbled into a technical bear market due to AI's impact on the software industry and power constraints on capital expenditure [18][21]. - The Nasdaq has fallen below the six - month moving average, and the rebound on Friday was a technical pullback. A downward shock in the U.S. stock market is imminent [24]. Japanese Market - After the victory of the Japanese high - level government in the House of Representatives election, Japanese government bonds will face a new round of selling pressure, and Japanese bond yields are expected to continue to soar. A new round of yen depreciation may be inevitable. If the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, yen carry - trade funds will flow back rapidly, impacting the global equity and bond markets [26][28]. Chinese Market - The Hang Seng Technology Index has broken through its support level. The CSI 500 Index has shown a phased top and entered an adjustment period. The CSI 300 Index has broken through its support level, with a locked - in area of 1 trillion yuan in ETFs above, forming a significant resistance level [31][34][36]. - The margin trading balance has entered a de - leveraging phase [39]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, and the real interest rate has been negative continuously, with a month - on - month growth of 0.2%. The month - on - month increase in the industrial producer purchase price index in December was 0.4%, indicating that the Chinese economy is moving towards re - inflation [42][45]. - China's export value in December reached a record high of $357.7 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%, showing resilience in exports [47]. - In December, the month - on - month value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.87 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 10.5%, indicating a stall in manufacturing investment. The month - on - month value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 15.9%, reflecting the financial difficulties of local governments. The year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment in December was - 36.8%, hitting a new low [50][53][56]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in December was 4.51 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.9%. In the context of a downward export outlook and a stall in investment, consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth, but the year - on - year growth rate in December hit a new low [59]. - The acceleration of the RMB's appreciation is conducive to the continuous inflow of international capital into China [62].