Choice统计显示，12月29日，沪深两市可交易A股中，上涨个股有1954只，下跌个股有3088只，平盘个 股有127只。不含当日上市新股，共有90只个股涨停，25只个股跌停。从所属行业来看，涨停个股主要 集中在化工、机械设备、国防军工、建筑装饰、汽车、电力设备等行业。 （原标题：今日90只个股涨停 主要集中在化工、机械设备等行业） ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 转自：证券时报 A股市场今天（12月29日）上午整体上行，上证指数盘中创今年12月以来新高，石油石化、国防军工、电子等多个板 块大涨。 其他热点方面，国投白银LOF上午剧烈波动，振幅接近20%。与此同时，今日上午，国际白银期现市场亦出现巨震。 上证指数盘中创12月以来新高 多个板块大涨 A股市场今天上午整体上行，主要指数不同程度上涨，上证指数盘中突破3980点，创出今年12月以来新高。 | 标记 +自选 返回 指标 登加 争件 统计 世宗 | | | G = 上证指数 999999 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | > ■ | | | | | | | | 3975.92 | ▲12.24 | 0.31% | | | 4000 | 今日开盘 | | 3964.65 | | | | 昨日收盘 | | 3963.68 | | | 3950 | 指数振幅 | | 24.85/0.63% | | | | 总成交额 | | 5882.45 亿 | | | 3900 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3980 points, reaching a new high for December [2][3] - Major sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, and electronics saw significant gains [1][2] Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical sector led the gains, with an increase of over 2%. Notable stocks included Intercontinental Oil and Heshun Petroleum, which hit the daily limit, and others like Unified Shares and Baomo Shares rising over 5%. The "Big Three" oil companies also saw substantial increases, with Sinopec rising over 4% [3][4] - The national defense and military industry sector also performed well, with gains exceeding 1.5%. Stocks like Guangwei Composite and Aerospace Huanyu saw increases over 10%, while Haige Communication and Aerospace Development hit the daily limit [4][5] - The electronics sector also surged, with stocks such as Dongwei Semiconductor and Zhishang Technology rising over 10%, and others like Bomind Electronics and Chuan Yi Technology hitting the daily limit [5][6] Fund Performance - The Guotou Silver LOF experienced significant volatility, with a trading range close to 20%. It opened at the limit down price but quickly rebounded, achieving a maximum increase of over 9% during the session [8][10] - Year-to-date, the Guotou Silver LOF has seen a cumulative increase of over 200%, with an acceleration of nearly 80% in December alone [10] - The fund management company announced that the Guotou Silver LOF would suspend trading for a period to protect investors, highlighting the risks associated with high premium rates [10][11] International Market Impact - The international silver market also experienced significant fluctuations, with spot silver initially rising over 5% before dropping and then recovering to a gain of approximately 1.2% [13] - Silver futures exhibited similar volatility, initially increasing over 7% before experiencing a drop and then stabilizing to a gain of about 3.8% [15]

Market Performance Review - In December, all major stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.93%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.77%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.27% as of December 26 [4][13] - The performance varied by style, with stable style down by 0.16%, financial style up by 2.21%, consumption style down by 0.75%, cyclical style up by 5.57%, and growth style up by 5.14% [4][13] - The large-cap index rose by 2.62%, mid-cap index by 5.90%, and small-cap index by 4.47% [4][13] - The market experienced a rebound in the fourth week of December, driven by the appreciation of the RMB and significant net inflows into the A500 ETF [4][13] Industry Insights - The leading sectors in December included defense and military (up 13.75%), communication (up 13.66%), and non-bank financials (up 8.30%), while the weakest sectors were media (down 3.96%) and real estate (down 3.30%) [18] - The focus on themes and events drove the market, with commercial aerospace and Hainan Free Trade Zone being the most prominent themes in December [18] Future Market Outlook - The A-share market in January is expected to face both challenges and opportunities, with attention needed on industry and individual stocks [5][33] - The potential for overseas disturbances, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, could impact market volatility [5][33] - Despite the lack of strong domestic stimulus policies and economic data, there are still strong themes and sectors that can perform well [5][33] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on thematic investments, particularly in commercial aerospace, non-ferrous metals, and consumer sectors [6][33] - The establishment of a commercial aerospace department and the release of a development action plan for commercial aerospace are seen as positive indicators for investment in this sector [6][33] - The report highlights the potential for a continued rally in the non-ferrous sector, particularly gold, driven by rigid demand and upcoming U.S. Treasury bond supply peaks [6][33]

巨震。 A股市场今天（12月29日）上午整体上行，上证指数盘中创今年12月以来新高，石油石化、国防军工、电 子等多个板块大涨。 其他热点方面，国投白银LOF上午剧烈波动，振幅接近20%。与此同时，今日上午，国际白银期现市场亦出 现巨震。 上证指数盘中创12月以来新高 多个板块大涨 A股市场今天上午整体上行，主要指数不同程度上涨，上证指数盘中突破3980点，创出今年12月以来新 高。 | G = 上证指数 999999 | 指标 整加 事件 统计 圆线 标记 +目选 返回 | < ■ | 3975.92 | ▲12.24 | 0.31% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4000 | 今日开盘 | 3964.65 | 昨日收盘 | 3963.68 | | | 3950 | 24.85/0.63% | 指数振幅 | | | | | 5882.45 Z | 总成交额 | 3900 | 36316.5万 | 总成交量 | | | 指数量比 | 1.43 | 3850 | 0.76% | 上证换手 | | | A股 涨停 | 67 | 3800 | 114 | 涨幅 > ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with a strong performance in specific sectors, particularly in hard technology and resource revaluation, while some traditional sectors face pressure [1][2]. Market Overview - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.31% to 3975.92 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a slight increase of 0.03%. The STAR 50 Index performed notably well, increasing by 0.91%, indicating strong momentum in the hard technology sector. The ChiNext Index, however, fell by 0.32% [1]. - The total trading volume across both markets reached nearly 1.4 trillion yuan, reflecting an active trading atmosphere despite a slight decrease from the previous day [1]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index surged by 1.55%, showing a strong correlation with the A-share technology sector [1]. Sector Performance - The leading sectors included oil and petrochemicals, defense and military, and electronics, which collectively drove market momentum. The metals sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, attracted significant attention with a trading volume exceeding 100 billion yuan, making it a focal point for capital [1][2]. - Conversely, sectors such as utilities, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage faced temporary adjustments, indicating a clear "offensive and defensive" market sentiment [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing heightened activity driven by multiple macroeconomic and industrial factors. Expectations of global liquidity easing are strengthening, particularly following lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, which bolsters predictions of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2]. - The ongoing energy revolution is creating long-term structural demand for various metals, not just lithium, cobalt, and nickel. The integration and price increases in the lithium battery separator industry reflect a reallocation of profits across the entire supply chain [2]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and proactive domestic fiscal policies provide dual support for both "safe-haven" investments in precious metals and potential demand for industrial metals [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is facing a significant supply-demand gap, with the global shortfall expected to exceed 100 million ounces in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of expansion. Any marginal improvement in demand could significantly impact prices [3]. Investment Outlook - Three key areas for future investment focus include: 1. Non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and silver 2. Technology growth sectors supported by industrial policies, including semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and commercial aerospace 3. High-end manufacturing sectors that may benefit from fiscal stimulus and possess global competitiveness [4]. - The current market environment suggests that a cross-year rally may be underway, driven by sustained market trends, positive policy expectations, and improved overseas liquidity conditions [3][4].

Group 1: Cryptocurrency and Political Influence - The year 2025 saw a surge in speculative trading linked to Donald Trump's brand, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector, with significant investments in assets associated with him [1][2] - Trump's family launched various tokens, including a meme coin and Melania Trump's own token, which experienced dramatic price declines by the end of the year, with some down nearly 99% [2][3] - Despite political momentum, these assets could not escape the fundamental volatility of the cryptocurrency market, highlighting the risks of speculative trading [1][3] Group 2: AI Stocks and Short Selling - Scion Asset Management disclosed protective put options on Nvidia and Palantir, signaling skepticism about their high valuations amid a market driven by AI hype [1][4] - The put options had strikingly low strike prices compared to the stocks' closing prices, indicating a bearish outlook from a well-known investor, Michael Burry [3][4] - This move reflects underlying doubts about the sustainability of AI-driven market gains, suggesting potential for significant market corrections [3][4] Group 3: European Defense Stocks - European defense stocks surged due to geopolitical shifts, with companies like Rheinmetall and Leonardo seeing year-to-date gains of approximately 150% and over 90%, respectively [6][8] - Investment managers, previously hesitant to engage with defense stocks, have now revised their strategies to include these assets, indicating a paradigm shift in investment focus [6][10] - The demand for defense-related investments has extended into the credit market, with new financial instruments being created to support military spending [6][10] Group 4: Gold and Inflation Hedge - The narrative of "devaluation trading" emerged as investors sought refuge in gold and cryptocurrencies amid concerns over national debts and inflation, leading to record highs for both assets [10][11] - This trend reflects a complex interplay between macroeconomic fears and the demand for safe-haven assets, with gold reaching unprecedented levels [10][11] - The market dynamics suggest that while fears of devaluation persist, strong demand for secure assets can coexist with broader economic uncertainties [10][11] Group 5: South Korean Stock Market - The South Korean stock market experienced a remarkable rise, with the Kospi index climbing over 70% in 2025, driven by government policies aimed at revitalizing the capital market [12][14] - Despite the impressive performance, local retail investors remained skeptical, opting to invest heavily in U.S. stocks instead, indicating a disconnect between foreign and domestic investor sentiment [12][18] - The government's ambitious target of reaching a Kospi index of 5000 has gained traction among major financial institutions, suggesting potential for continued growth [12][14] Group 6: Japanese Bonds - The Japanese bond market, once considered a "widowmaker," transformed into a profitable short-selling opportunity as yields surged, driven by government spending and interest rate hikes [22][25] - The Bloomberg Japan bond index recorded significant losses, marking it as the worst-performing major bond market globally [22][25] - Investor sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of further rate increases and ongoing fiscal challenges contributing to a negative outlook for Japanese bonds [22][25] Group 7: Credit Market Dynamics - The credit market in 2025 revealed vulnerabilities as several previously reliable borrowers faced significant financial distress, leading to a series of defaults and restructurings [30][31] - Notable cases included companies like Saxo Global and New Fortress Energy, which saw their bond values plummet, raising concerns about the overall health of the credit market [30][31] - The fragmentation of debt holders and the lack of transparency in borrowing practices have heightened risks for investors, prompting warnings from industry leaders [30][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, broad - based indices generally rose, with most volatility declining. Market activity was at a medium - high level, and 77.4% of industries achieved positive returns. The current sentiment repair is relatively optimistic, component stock returns have strengthened, the profitability outside the index is poor, the basis has continuously converged to the growth level, and the intraday Alpha and trading - type Alpha environments have warmed up. Overall, the basis cost is favorable, the excess environment is weak, and the tail risk is moderately high. For long - only stock strategies, one can increase positions in trading - type Alpha or intraday Alpha, and strictly control the proportion of component stocks in long - only stock strategies with low exposure to small and micro - cap stocks. Neutral strategies can seize the window of low - cost position building and increase positions in replication T and strictly controlled exposure strategies that do not rely on the return contribution of small and micro - cap stocks [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review - **Broad - based Index Performance**: As of December 26, 2025, this week, the CSI 500 index rose 4.03%, the CSI 1000 index rose 3.76%, the CSI 2000 index rose 3.06%, the CSI All - Share index rose 2.78%, the CSI A500 rose 2.75%, the SSE 50 index rose 1.95%, and the CSI Dividend index rose 0.55%. From the perspective of Barra style factors, the top three factors with the highest returns this week were BETA (1.16%), mid - cap (0.60%), and momentum (0.58%); the bottom three were leverage (0.03%), value (- 0.03%), and profitability (- 0.11%) [14]. - **Industry Index Performance**: This week, 77.4% of industries achieved positive returns, with the non - ferrous metals sector leading. The top three industries with the highest weekly returns were non - ferrous metals (6.43%), national defense and military industry (6.00%), and power equipment (5.37%); the bottom three were banks (- 1.01%), social services (- 1.05%), and beauty care (- 1.08%) [25]. - **Style Factor Performance**: The BETA, mid - cap, and momentum factors performed well, while the leverage, value, and profitability factors performed poorly. Among the Juchao stock style indices, the top three with the highest returns were small - cap growth (5.13%), mid - cap growth (3.28%), and large - cap growth (2.70%); the bottom three were mid - cap value (2.64%), small - cap value (2.19%), and large - cap value (- 0.02%) [27][32]. - **Futures Market**: The basis of IF, IC, and IM converged, and the basis volatility slightly increased, but the cost control pressure decreased. The estimated average returns of neutral products affected by each contract's hedging this week were - 0.38% for 300 neutral, - 0.50% for 500 neutral, and - 0.63% for 1000 neutral. Since the beginning of this year, the estimated average returns of neutral products affected by each contract's hedging were - 1.96% for 300 neutral, - 6.13% for 500 neutral, and - 7.71% for 1000 neutral [40]. - **Options Market**: This week, most implied volatilities declined, which is expected to be unfavorable for option - buying and arbitrage strategies [44]. 3.2 Strategy Environment Monitoring - **Intraday Alpha Environment**: Overall, it is conducive to intraday Alpha accumulation. The daily average trading volume of the stock market has slightly increased, the average intraday amplitude cross - sectional volatility is at a normal level, the proportion of high - volatility stocks is normal, and the short - term volatility of major indices is decreasing. Although the stock market has a daily net outflow, considering the market's upward trend, the actual capital inflow is beneficial for intraday Alpha accumulation [48][51][54]. - **Trading - type Alpha Environment**: The weekly average trading volume and turnover rate of the stock market are at a relatively high level, which is conducive to trading - type Alpha accumulation. The stock market shows a small - cap style, which is beneficial for trading - type Alpha accumulation, but the number of stocks that can beat the benchmark index has dropped to a low level, which is significantly unfavorable for trading - type Alpha accumulation [55][62]. - **Holding - type Alpha Environment**: It is generally conducive to holding - type Alpha accumulation and stability. The short - term returns of major broad - based indices are mostly positive, the trend smoothness of some factors is high, the style is small - cap, the number of daily limit and down - limit stocks is normal, the stock liquidity is normal, the volatility is high, the style return difference volatility is decreasing, the industry correlation coefficient is normal, and the factor rotation speed is at a high level [67][73][84]. - **Neutral Strategy Hedging Environment**: The basis of IF, IC, and IM converged, the basis volatility slightly increased, and the cost control pressure decreased [91]. 3.3 Future Strategy研判 - **Return Performance**: Based on the 20 - day rolling return, the relative returns of the CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and CSI 500 compared to the SSE 50 are in the normal or extremely high range, and the SSE 50 return is in the relatively high range [93]. - **Derivatives Market Sentiment**: In the options market, the sentiment towards the CSI 1000, SSE 50, and CSI 500 is generally cautious but shows structural differentiation. In the futures market, the basis of IF, IC, and IM converged, and market sentiment has recovered [97][102]. - **Risk Preference**: As of December 25, 2025, the margin trading balance was 2.53 trillion yuan, at the highest level in the past three years, indicating a high risk preference [105]. - **Trading Heat**: The trading heat of the SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 is at different levels, and the market trading volume is at an extremely high level [107]. - **Style Attention Multiple**: The CSI 1000 is in the relatively high range, the CSI 2000 is in the normal range, and the CSI 500 is in the extremely high range [110]. - **Profit Spread and Dividend Spread**: The profit spreads of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 2000, and SSE 50 are at different levels, mostly in the normal or extremely low range. The dividend spreads are all in the normal range [111][113]. - **Trading Crowding**: The trading heat of the TMT sector is in the low range, the trading heat of small - micro - cap sectors is in the high range, and the overall market trading volume is in the extremely high range [117].

市场分析 企业利润下滑。宏观方面，全国政协十四届四次会议将于2026年3月4日在北京召开，十四届全国人大四 次会议将于3月5日召开，审查"十五五"规划纲要草案列入2026年全国人代会建议议程。数据方面，1-11 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元，同比增长0.1%；11月份，规模以上工业企业 利润同比下降13.1%。海外方面，美国第三季度实际GDP初值年化季环比大幅增长4.3%，远超市场预期 的增长3.3%，增速创两年来最快。 作者： 汪雅航 来源：华泰期货 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指上行。现货市场，A股三大指数连续上行，上证指数收盘涨1.88%收于3963.68点，创业板指涨 3.90%。行业方面，板块指数涨多跌少，有色金属、国防军工、电力设备、电子行业领涨，美容护理、 社会服务、银行行业跌幅居前。日均成交额回升至1.95万亿元，两融余额增加超400亿元。央行发布 《中国金融稳定报告（2025）》指出，下一步，证监会等相关部门将着力健全有利于"长钱长投"的制度 政策环境，显著提高各类中长期资金实际投资A股的规模和比例；多措并举推动上市公司质量 ...

12月26日沪指上涨0.10%，市场两融余额为25433.30亿元，较前一交易日减少21.00亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至12月26日，沪市两融余额12823.77亿元，较前一交易日减少23.35亿 元；深市两融余额12529.74亿元，较前一交易日增加2.07亿元；北交所两融余额79.79亿元，较前一交易 日增加0.28亿元；深沪北两融余额合计25433.30亿元，较前一交易日减少21.00亿元。 分行业看，申万所属行业中，融资余额增加的行业有13个，增加金额最多的行业是电力设备，融资余额 增加29.98亿元；其次是基础化工、国防军工行业，融资余额分别增加8.33亿元、5.63亿元。 具体到个股来看，融资余额出现增长的股票有1664只，占比44.24%，其中，254股融资余额增幅超过5% 。融资余额增幅最大的是C天溯，该股最新融资余额5847.88万元，较前一交易日增幅达55.61%；股价表 现上，该股当日上涨27.23%，表现强于沪指；融资余额增幅较多的还有航天发展、恒达新材，融资余 额增幅分别为43.86%、43.32%。 | | 信 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...