Group 1 - The US is shifting its focus from China to traditional allies like Japan, South Korea, and Europe in the ongoing tariff war, with India unexpectedly taking the lead in retaliating against US economic policies [1][3] - India has announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on certain US products, signaling a strong response to what it perceives as US economic bullying [3] - The US is considering varying tariff rates from 10% to 70% based on the trade scale with each country, indicating a more calculated approach compared to previous tariff battles with China [3][5] Group 2 - Smaller countries like Vietnam and Cambodia are likely to suffer more from US tariffs, as their economies heavily depend on exports to the US, while larger economies like Japan and India can negotiate more effectively [5] - The internal political landscape in the US is tumultuous, with opposition from various factions against Trump's "America First" policies, complicating the administration's approach to international trade [5][7] - India is strategically improving relations with China and enhancing cooperation with BRICS nations while using its purchases of US oil and weapons as leverage in negotiations [7] Group 3 - Recent developments indicate a slight easing of tensions between the US and China, with both countries engaging in dialogue and reducing some trade restrictions, although fundamental issues remain [8] - The US's inability to effectively challenge China has led it to target other nations, potentially pushing these countries closer to China and altering the dynamics of international trade relationships [9] - The ongoing tariff conflict is expected to produce further dramatic developments, with unpredictable outcomes as countries navigate their responses to US policies [9]

这几年，越南真是把"左右为难"演成了极致。不顾中国警告，越南火速和美国签了一纸"零关税"协议， 以为自己从此能搭上美国这艘"高质量发展快船"。可谁能想到，前脚刚签完，扭头一看，美国居然转身 就去跟中国示好，连芯片禁令都开始松口了……这操作，活脱脱就是拿越南当跳板使。 而越南，真就被"爸爸"狠狠坑了一把。 越南"低头认亲"，美国"高高举刀" 协议里暗藏一条"毒药"：凡是经由越南转运的"第三国"商品，一律征收超过40%的惩罚性关税说白了， 就是针对中国。这种条款，摆明了是政治问题，披着经济外衣而已。 越南"偷鸡不成蚀把米"，经济和外交双输 "零关税"换来的，不是合作，是套路 越南想得挺好：我给你开后门、让利、示好，你是不是也该给点回报？ 可美国人是什么人？翻脸比翻书还快。这边刚签完协议，没几天，美国就主动开放对中国某些产品的进 口限制，连科技领域的出口许可都开始恢复了。 什么意思？美国压根就没打算跟越南"共进退"，他只是在利用越南的对华通道，替自己打下一张"围堵 中国"的地缘牌。 而真正的目标，从头到尾都不是越南，而是通过这项协议逼迫越南表态：你，是站在我美国这边，还是 跟中国一起混？ 这才是最狠的地方。 还记得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is seen as a strategic move that undermines the interests of other countries, particularly China, amidst ongoing trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration [1][6]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The agreement significantly reduces tariffs on Vietnamese goods exported to the U.S. from 46% to 20%, while imposing punitive tariffs of up to 40% on third-country goods transshipped through Vietnam [1][3]. - Vietnam has agreed to open its market to U.S. goods with zero tariffs across various sectors, including agricultural products and high-tech items, and has allowed U.S. customs to conduct inspections [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Implications for Vietnam - Vietnam's economy is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with a trade surplus ranking third globally in 2024, trailing only China and Mexico [3]. - The agreement poses risks for Vietnam, as over 60% of its electronic components and 80% of its plastic materials are imported from China, making its manufacturing sector vulnerable to disruptions in trade relations with China [6][7]. Group 3: Reactions from China and Other Countries - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed strong opposition to the agreement, emphasizing that negotiations should not harm third-party interests and warning of potential retaliatory measures [6][9]. - The agreement may encourage other ASEAN countries, such as Thailand and Malaysia, to follow suit, potentially impacting China's trade relations in the region [7][9]. Group 4: Broader Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. stands to gain significantly from this agreement, enhancing its bargaining power in future trade negotiations and increasing customs revenue from tariffs [4][6]. - The agreement has also prompted India to accelerate its negotiations with the U.S. to prevent potential shifts in manufacturing away from India to other countries [7].

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Dogecoin dropping over 5% and Bitcoin falling more than 1% before recovering slightly [1] - President Trump announced that starting July 4, the U.S. government will notify countries without tariff agreements about new tax rates, which will range from 10% to 70%, effective August 1 [1] - Trump indicated that the new tariffs will likely be implemented on August 1, with an expectation of sending out 10 to 12 letters to trade partners on July 4, and all letters expected to be sent by July 9 [1] Group 2 - The Cambodian government announced on July 4 that it has reached a tariff agreement with the U.S., becoming the second Southeast Asian country to do so after Vietnam [2] - EU-U.S. trade negotiations on July 4 did not achieve breakthroughs, with discussions expected to continue until the weekend, as the EU seeks a principle agreement by July 9 [2] - EU Trade Commissioner Šefčovič is in Washington negotiating with U.S. trade representatives to reach an agreement [2]

Core Viewpoint - The United States has threatened to impose a 17% tariff on EU agricultural exports, escalating trade tensions ahead of a deadline for a trade agreement [1] Group 1: Trade Conflict - The U.S. has made a last-minute demand for a trade agreement with the EU, threatening a 20% tariff on all EU goods if no agreement is reached [1] - EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic received the U.S. demand during a meeting in Washington and communicated it to the ambassadors of the 27 member states [1] - EU Commission President von der Leyen expressed hope for a "principle agreement" to allow continued negotiations before a final deal is reached [1]

与美国的贸易谈判仍在进行中。 印度官员：只有利益得到满足，才能在7月9日前与美国达成贸易协议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - India is actively discussing trade agreements with multiple countries, emphasizing that free trade can only be achieved when the interests of both nations are satisfied [1] Group 1 - The Indian Trade Minister highlighted ongoing discussions with various countries regarding trade agreements [1] - The minister stated that the realization of free trade is contingent upon mutual satisfaction of interests between the involved nations [1]

若最终对100个国家实施10%关税，将少于特朗普政府最初设想——原清单显示123个司法管辖区(多为 小国及澳大利亚赫德岛等无人区)被列为10%关税对象。 这位共和党总统表示，继周三宣布与越南达成贸易协议后，他预计还将与其他国家签署"几项"更详细的 协议。但他同时强调，对于大多数国家更倾向于直接通知具体关税税率，跳过细节谈判。 特朗普的言论凸显出全面贸易协定的挑战性——从关税到农产品进口禁令等非关税壁垒均需协调。其高 级助手曾在四月宣称"90天内完成90项协议"，这个雄心勃勃的目标遭到熟悉贸易谈判耗时特性的专家普 遍质疑。 财政部长贝森特表示，约100个国家可能面临10%的对等关税税率，并预测在7月9日关税大幅上调的最 后期限前将出现"一系列"贸易协议。 美国总统特朗普表示，华盛顿将于美东时间周五开始向各国发送信函，具体说明它们对美出口商品将面 临的关税税率。这一表态明显背离了此前与多国分别达成协议的承诺。 在承认与170多个国家分别谈判的复杂性后，特朗普周四启程前往艾奥瓦州前对记者表示，大约"10到12 封"信件将于星期五发出，"未来几天"还会有其他信件发出。 特朗普补充道："我认为到9日他们将被完全覆盖。" ...

美国目前只和英国、越南两国敲定贸易协议，另与中国达成框架协议。 特朗普当地时间7月2日表示，美国已经与越南达成贸易协议。特朗普随后又发帖文称，越南所有对美出口 商品将面临至少20%关税，并对美国"完全开放市场"。 其他贸易伙伴，如日本、欧盟等，仍在与美国谈判以敲定协议。 关税大消息。 美国总统特朗普表示，会在今日（7月4日）起向各国发出信件，具体说明有关国家货物进入美国时将面对 的关税税率。他在前往艾奥瓦州前向记者表示，每次将有10个国家收到有关信件，信中提及的关税税率为 20%至30%。 美国财长贝森特表示，将有约100个国家面对10%对等关税，并预计下周三（7月9日）对等关税宽限届满 前有一系列的贸易协议公布。美国4月公布对等关税政策时，获10%基准对等关税税率的国家及地区有 123个。他还说，未来几天将有大量消息。 特朗普多次威胁，若无法在下周期限前与美国达成贸易协议，将单方面设定关税。特朗普最早在4月2日宣 布激进的"对等"关税，但很快就宣布暂停90天，给各国协商的时间，这段期间的税率是10%。 综合自：央视新闻、新华社、券商中国、CCTV国际时讯等 责编：李丹 校对：刘星莹 版权声明 当地时间7月1 ...

美国总统特朗普周四表示，其政府可能最早于周五开始向贸易伙伴国发送通知函，单方面设定新的关税 税率。此举旨在为7月9日的谈判截止日期提前施压，迫使各国尽快与美国达成协议。 "我们可能明天就开始发函，大概每天发10个国家，告知他们若想与美国做生意，需要支付多少关 税，"特朗普在离开华盛顿前往爱荷华州参加活动时对记者表示。 他长期以来威胁称，如果各国未能在截止日期前与美国达成协议，他将直接单方面设定税率。特朗普承 认与170多个国家谈判的复杂性。他说他更倾向于通知大多数其他国家具体的关税税率，而跳过详细的 谈判。 尽管如此，市场仍对美越协议作出积极反应，在越南设厂的美国制造商股价应声上涨。然而，许多主要 贸易伙伴，如日本、韩国和欧盟，仍在努力敲定最终协议。 特朗普最初于4月2日宣布提高所谓"对等关税"，但给予各国90天谈判缓冲期，期间暂执行10%的统一税 率。截至目前，特朗普政府已宣布与英国和越南达成协议，并与中国达成关税休战。 当周四被问及是否会有更多协议达成时，特朗普回应称："我们还有几项协议在谈，但我的倾向是直接 发函，告诉他们该付多少关税。"他补充道："这样简单多了。" 周三，特朗普宣布了与越南的协议，称美 ...