Core Insights - The public fund industry is actively launching new products, with technology themes becoming a popular investment focus due to improving macroeconomic conditions and ongoing technological advancements, leading to a positive outlook for the A-share market through 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - Multiple public funds have recently launched technology-themed products, with significant fundraising success, such as the Morgan Stanley Hong Kong-Shanghai Technology Mixed Fund raising 4.424 billion yuan [1] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain positive, with sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, and robotics showing strong performance [1][2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The gradual recovery of the economy, driven by the "anti-involution" policy and strong demand in various sectors, is anticipated to lead to a stable economic environment through 2026 [2] - The new wave of technological revolution is expected to reshape the global economic landscape, providing strong momentum for China's economic development [2] Group 3: Investment Directions - Five key investment areas are highlighted: 1. Domestic semiconductor industry growth driven by increased production and technological upgrades [3] 2. Non-ferrous metals benefiting from global resource adjustments and domestic policy, with structural demand from AI and new energy sectors [3] 3. Power equipment sector gaining opportunities from global AI infrastructure development [3][4] 4. AI computing power infrastructure growth supported by increased capital expenditure from major internet companies [4] 5. Humanoid robots entering the industrialization phase, showcasing significant market potential [5]

Group 1 - In 2025, the new "National Nine Articles" and the "1+6" reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board drove a moderate development of the Shanghai and Shenzhen new stock market, with a total of 90 new stocks listed, an increase of 13 from 2024 [1][7] - The fundraising scale significantly increased, with total funds raised reaching 124.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 98.25%, and large IPOs in the second half contributed 72% of the total fundraising [1][18] - The average fundraising amount per new stock was 13.80 million yuan, up 69.62% year-on-year, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board leading at an average of 20.03 million yuan [1][24] Group 2 - In the primary market, the offline subscription yield remained stable compared to 2024, but accounts with a scale of 5 billion yuan and above saw a significant increase in yield [2][31] - The average first-day closing price increase was 227.90%, maintaining a high level, with no stocks experiencing a loss on the first day [2][41] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board had the highest average first-day closing price increase, while industries such as non-ferrous metals and social services performed notably well [2][50] Group 3 - In the secondary market, timing remained a key factor for improving investment returns and success rates, with new stocks listed during market sentiment lows or upward cycles performing better [2][8] - The average investment return in the secondary market was 14.53%, a slight decrease from 2024, but the investment success rate increased to 33.33% [2][8] - The ChiNext Board outperformed in both investment returns and success rates, with industries like electronics and social services leading [2][8]

判断本轮ETF集中赎回潮基本结束，权重股迎来修复窗口。大周期维度下的风格切换正在发生，从小盘切大 盘，从题材切质量。沃什被提名美联储主席代表了"美国版脱虚向实"的政策意愿，无论能否成功践行理念，对 全球风险资产的风格都会产生巨大影响。站在A股视角，从资源热到周期热，涨价线索的全面演绎可能贯穿一 季度。周期板块的底层共性是利润率修复空间大，背后是中国的政策从扩大规模逐步向提质增效的转变。 配置的底层思路还是应围绕中国具备竞争优势的行业在全球定价权的重估，化工、有色、电力设备、新能源的 底仓配置思路依然成立，但对投机属性越发明显的贵金属板块要开始保持警惕。消费和地产链的躁动修复理应 发生在春季，这与制造、科技并不对立。 华泰证券：转向胜率思维 上周A股高位震荡，大盘价值占优。向后看，节前风险偏好抬升的制约因素偏多：外部，凯文·沃什或接任美联 储主席，由于其此前被认为是通胀鹰派，美元、美债利率上行，风险资产承压；内部，随着行情向白酒等估值 低位板块扩散，轮动加快下攫取超额收益的难度加大，技术性调整压力和长假效应下资金获利了结意愿上升。 但本轮春季行情启动的核心驱动并未发生根本性变化，春节后至两会前胜率提升，若市场调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with the core logic supporting the spring market remaining unchanged, and the precious metals sector expected to enter a wide fluctuation phase in the short term [1][6] Market Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January is reported at 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing sector activity [1] - The capital market service index is above 65%, reflecting high market activity in sectors such as monetary financial services and insurance [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with lower price increases but strong logical support, including storage chips, embodied intelligence, AI edge computing, energy storage, and the lithium battery supply chain [1][5] - Emphasize sectors mentioned in the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as commercial aerospace, 6G, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, quantum communication, and brain-computer interfaces [5] Precious Metals Sector - Banks have issued risk warnings regarding precious metals business, citing increased market uncertainty and price volatility, while still recognizing the medium to long-term investment value of gold and similar assets [2] - The precious metals sector is currently in a high congestion state after rapid previous gains, expected to enter a wide fluctuation phase, but the fundamental outlook remains positive due to unresolved supply-demand gaps [6] Sector-Specific Insights - The AI industry is expected to significantly drive electricity demand, creating investment opportunities in the energy storage and power equipment sectors [6] - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to continue its upgrade trend driven by innovation, with a long-term positive outlook for globally competitive drugs and devices [7] - The technology growth sector is favored due to abundant liquidity and industry theme catalysts, with a focus on sectors supported by industry trends [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysts are optimistic about the equity market in February with a balanced style, while the bond market has an increased risk of adjustment [2][7]. - The marginal expansion of the real - sector balance sheet in February is highly certain, and the probability of a significant tightening of the capital market is low [2]. - In the context of the marginal convergence of the national balance sheet, the top - down subjective allocation strategy focusing on position selection and style analysis will gain more attention and favor from the market [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Asset - Liability Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In December 2025, the real - sector liability growth rate was 8.4% (previous value 8.6%). It is expected to drop to around 8.3% in January 2026, rebound slightly in February, and decline in March. The capital market tightened marginally last week. There is a risk of significant tightening in February, but the probability is not high [2][17]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The net increase of government bonds last week was 235.3 billion yuan (higher than the planned 141.3 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 721.4 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of December 2025 was 12.4% (previous value 13.1%), expected to rebound to around 12.6% in January 2026 and likely decline in February [3][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds decreased, the price increased, and the term spread narrowed. The one - year Treasury bond yield ended at 1.30% on the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%, and there may be a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 51 basis points [3][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in December 2025 continued to run smoothly compared to November. The full - year real economic growth target in 2025 was around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target was around 4.9%. It needs further observation whether 5% will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Since 2011, China has been in a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which may have ended in Q4 2024, followed by a low - level narrow - range oscillation in the profit cycle. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016: stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, financial institutions benefiting the real economy, and "housing is for living in, not for speculation." Currently, the convergence of the liability side has not ended, but the space is limited [6][20]. - Last week, the capital market tightened marginally, the overall equity market declined, but value stocks strengthened. The long - end bond yield decreased slightly, and the short - end increased. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness slightly favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81%, the one - year increased by 2 basis points to 1.30%, and the 30 - year remained stable at 2.29% [7][21]. - In February, the analysts are optimistic about the equity market with a balanced style and believe that the bond market has little investment value. They recommend a 50% position in the Shanghai Composite 50 Index and a 50% position in the China Securities 1000 Index [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.09%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, automobiles, computers, and comprehensive industries had the largest declines [30]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding - out and Trading Volume - As of January 30, the top five crowded industries were electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, and communication, with crowding - out degrees of 15.9%, 10.3%, 9%, 6.4%, and 6.2% respectively. The bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, social services, environmental protection, and steel, with 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.9% respectively [31]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding - out were non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, media, and communication. The top five with decreased crowding - out were power equipment, national defense and military industry, electronics, automobiles, and machinery [31]. - As of January 30, non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics had relatively high crowding - out quantiles since 2018, while pharmaceutical biology, transportation, light industry manufacturing, beauty care, and non - bank finance had relatively low quantiles [31]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 3.06 trillion yuan, up from 2.8 trillion yuan last week. Petroleum and petrochemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, coal, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume, while national defense and military industry, automobiles, household appliances, commercial retail, and power equipment had the largest declines [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE(TTM) of petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, coal, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverage had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, computers, automobiles, and comprehensive industries had the largest declines [37]. - As of January 30, 2026, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, power, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [38]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: It showed mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.5 in December to 50.4, and most of the disclosed PMI data of economies in January increased. The CCFI index fell 2.74% week - on - week. Port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 13.4% in December and 33.9% in January. Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 15.8% in November to 23.9% in December [42]. - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price increased last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries declined from September to October 2025, increased from November to December, and slightly declined in January. Automobile sales were weaker than the historical seasonality, new - home sales remained at the historical low, and second - hand home sales were stronger than the historical seasonality [42]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of January (January 26 - 30), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% quantiles of weekly returns were 2.3%, 1.1%, 0.4%, and - 0.6% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.08% [59]. - As of January 30, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 4.04 trillion yuan, up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [62].

Core Viewpoint - The recent acceleration in sector rotation within the A-share market indicates a shift in investment strategies, with previously underperforming sectors like liquor and real estate gaining traction while high-performing sectors like technology and new energy are experiencing corrections [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent ETF redemption wave has largely ended, signaling a potential recovery window for large-cap stocks as funds shift from small-cap to large-cap and from thematic to quality styles [1]. - The market is currently experiencing a structural adjustment, with high turnover rates leading to increased volatility, particularly in sectors like metals, which have seen significant trading volume [2][11]. - Despite short-term adjustments, the underlying fundamentals supporting the spring market rally remain intact, driven by domestic economic improvements and favorable policies [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The performance of cyclical sectors is strong, supported by a recovery in profit margins, as China's policy focus shifts from expansion to quality enhancement [1]. - The liquor and real estate sectors have shown notable performance, reflecting a convergence in market structure as the spring rally progresses into its latter stages [8]. - The AI sector continues to be a focal point for growth, with expectations of significant earnings improvements, while traditional sectors like chemicals and power equipment remain solid investment choices [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - February is anticipated to continue the spring market rally, with structural opportunities emerging from macroeconomic catalysts and corporate earnings forecasts [2][4]. - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of a stable upward trajectory supported by robust liquidity and favorable seasonal trends [4][6]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a balanced performance across various sectors, with an emphasis on both growth and value opportunities as the market evolves [8].

Group 1 - The main focus of brokerage strategies this week revolves around the future performance of the commodity market after significant fluctuations and the historical patterns of index performance leading up to the Spring Festival [1][2] - The core drivers of the recent A-share market rally are attributed to favorable domestic fundamentals, a "good start" in policies, and ample liquidity, which are expected to continue supporting the spring market [1][3] - The market is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment, but there remains ample space and opportunities for growth in the medium term, particularly in high-growth sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The strategy team from Guangfa Securities highlights four key directions for investment, focusing on industries that have shown signs of recovery and those that may see a profit turning point in Q4, particularly in AI and energy storage [2][3] - The analysis indicates that sectors such as lithium battery materials and storage are expected to continue their recovery into Q4, driven by AI and energy storage trends [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of the US manufacturing export chain, which is likely to face pressure due to factors such as currency appreciation and tariffs [2][3] Group 3 - The strategy from CITIC Securities predicts that the recent wave of ETF redemptions is coming to an end, providing a window for recovery in heavyweight stocks, with a shift in market style from small-cap to large-cap stocks [4][5] - The report notes that the underlying commonality in cyclical sectors is the significant potential for profit margin recovery, reflecting a shift in Chinese policy from expansion to quality improvement [4][5] - The analysis suggests that the spring market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by structural catalysts in February, particularly in the AI application sector [3][4]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：招商证券策略研究 展望2月，市场在未来一段时间将会以震荡为主，节后指数有望强于节前。在业绩预告披露结束后，市 场阶段性会围绕商业航天、AI算力及应用等主题进行交易，同时由于涨价的扩散，市场也会继续在以 石油石化、建材、钢铁、化工、白酒等涨价领域进行阶段性交易。但是在缺少净增量的环境下，轮动可 能会加速，交易难度进一步提升。整体风格也有望相对均衡，风格轮动也可能会加快。 核心观点 ⚑大势研判和核心逻辑：展望2月，在前期监管释放降温信号和ETF大幅流出后，市场在未来一段时间 将会以震荡为主。今年2月有春节长假，春节长假之前，由于有长假期缺少明确的催化剂，预计市场活 跃度会进一步下降。春节之后，由于临近两会召开，政策催化将会加速出现，春节之后指数有望有更好 的表现。基本面层面，1-2月是数据真空期，从目前来看，产业端的边际变化带来的业绩改善趋势仍然 是市场关注的方向。顺周期涨价品种，半导体光模块为代表的AI链依然是景气趋势之所在。政策层 面，由于2026年是逢六逢一的五年规划第一年，也是 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a significant upward trend in January 2026, with major indices rising, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 and CSI 500, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.8% [5][10] - Market trading volume increased significantly, with a record high of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, 2026, reflecting a recovery in investor sentiment [10][18] - The performance of various sectors was mixed, with non-ferrous metals and media leading gains, while banking and home appliances lagged behind [15][18] Group 2 - The report suggests maintaining a "growth + value" strategy in the Hong Kong stock market, as the overall trend is positive due to earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and low valuations [3][4] - The report emphasizes that small-cap stocks typically outperform during the spring market, driven by increased risk appetite and the influx of retail investors [71][88] - Key sectors to focus on include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and communications, which are expected to perform well in February 2026 [3][4][73] Group 3 - The spring market is anticipated to be characterized by a focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with historical data indicating that these sectors often perform well during this period [73][88] - The report highlights that the consumer sector may receive policy support, as the government emphasizes domestic demand and market expansion [88][89] - Earnings forecasts for 2025 show improvement across various industries, particularly in non-ferrous metals, steel, and media, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [61][81]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend in January 2026, with major indices showing gains, particularly the ChiNext 50 and CSI 500, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8% [6][12][22] - The market is expected to enter a short-term correction phase before the Spring Festival, influenced by tightening liquidity and reduced trading enthusiasm among investors [4][38] - Historical data indicates that the A-share market typically performs better in the 20 trading days following the Spring Festival, with a 75% probability of gains compared to less than 45% before the holiday [38][40] Group 2 - In the upcoming spring market, small-cap stocks are anticipated to outperform, driven by increased risk appetite and the influx of retail investor capital [52][54] - The focus should be on growth and cyclical sectors, with industries such as electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and communications expected to perform well in February [2][54] - The Hong Kong market is advised to adopt a "growth + value" strategy, benefiting from earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and supportive policies [2][65] Group 3 - The spring market is characterized by a dual focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with historical trends showing that both categories often perform well during this period [54][61] - The technology sector, particularly AI and commercial aerospace, is highlighted as a key area for investment, with potential catalysts expected to drive performance [61][64] - The overall sentiment in the market is shifting from being driven by capital to being driven by earnings, indicating a transition towards long-term value investing [2][65]