两融数据显示，该股最新（12月25日）两融余额为21.10亿元，其中，融资余额为21.07亿元，近10日增 加2.28亿元，环比增长12.15%。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入18.52亿元，同比增长5.35%，实现净利润 2.86亿元，同比下降40.58%，基本每股收益为0.0676元，加权平均净资产收益率1.82%。（数据宝） 中国卫通股价创出历史新高，截至13:54，该股上涨9.98%，股价报28.31元，成交量2.48亿股，成交金额 66.04亿元，换手率5.86%，该股最新A股总市值达1195.92亿元，该股A股流通市值1195.92亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，中国卫通所属的国防军工行业，目前整体涨幅为1.34%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有78只，涨停的有航天发展、中国卫星等5只。股价下跌的有61只，跌幅居前的有科思科技、 *ST观典、*ST万方等，跌幅分别为7.59%、3.31%、2.99%。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a rise in both volume and price, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3959.62 points, up 0.47%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 13531.41 points, up 0.33% [4][8] - A total of 26 out of 30 sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index saw gains, with notable increases in defense, comprehensive finance, and machinery, while non-ferrous metals, consumer services, and coal experienced declines [4][8] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market was 19439 billion, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [4][8] Key Drivers - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party held a meeting to discuss the construction of party conduct and anti-corruption work for 2026, emphasizing the importance of institutional oversight and accountability [9][10] - On the same day, 3773 stocks rose, 1473 fell, and 208 remained unchanged, indicating a strong market sentiment with 283 stocks rising over 5% and 96 hitting the daily limit up [9] - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.0 mark, which is expected to boost market enthusiasm for buying [9]

航天电子股价再创历史新高，该股近期呈不断突破新高之势，近一个月累计有12个交易日股价刷新历史 纪录。截至09:38，该股目前上涨2.53%，股价报19.08元，成交1.22亿股，成交金额22.82亿元，换手率 3.68%，该股最新A股总市值达629.51亿元，该股A股流通市值629.51亿元。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入88.35亿元，同比下降4.32%，实现净利润 2.09亿元，同比下降62.77%，基本每股收益为0.0630元，加权平均净资产收益率1.01%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 两融数据显示，该股最新（12月25日）两融余额为36.35亿元，其中，融资余额为35.98亿元，近10日增 加12.13亿元，环比增长50.88%。 机构评级来看，近10日共有3家机构对该股进行评级，预计目标价最高的是国泰海通证券，12月16日国 泰海通证券发布的研报给予公司目标价为19.77元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，航天电子所属的国防军工行业，目前整体涨幅为0.28%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有73只，涨幅居前的有广联航空、航天发展、*ST天微等，涨幅分别为13.14%、10.0 ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 12月25日涨跌幅 | 融资净买入额 | 最新融资余额 | 占流通市值比例 | 所属行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （万元） | （万元） | （%） | 业 | | 601138 | 工业富 联 | 2.43 | 81308.50 | 1188760.11 | 0.90 | 电子 | | 600879 | 航天电 子 | 9.99 | 75660.33 | 359759.02 | 5.86 | 国防军 工 | | 002202 | 金风科 | 9.98 | 55450.38 | 210100.40 | 3.27 | 电力设 | | | 技 | | | | | 备 | | 300308 | 中际旭 创 | 0.85 | 52266.63 | 2201917.24 | 3.11 | 通信 | | 300274 | 阳光电 | 1.21 | 48625.25 | 1510255.11 | 5.66 | 电力设 | | | 源 | | | | | 备 | | 688981 | 中芯国 际 | -0.27 ...

Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector in China is experiencing significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22% since 2015, and is projected to reach a market size of 7 trillion to 10 trillion yuan by 2030 [17] - The defense and military sector is currently leading the market, with a net buying of 14.2 billion yuan in a single day, indicating strong investor interest [17] - The metals sector has seen a recent pullback after four consecutive days of gains, with the Huabao Metals ETF receiving a net subscription of 46.3 million yuan on December 25 [17] Market Temperature - The long-term signals indicate that the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have percentile valuations of 94.94%, 85.93%, and 43.25% respectively, suggesting varying levels of market valuation [13] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors on December 25 include machinery (+1.59%), defense and military (+2.91%), and light industry manufacturing (+1.51%) [2] - The sectors with the largest capital inflows were automotive (1.158 billion yuan), machinery (504 million yuan), and food and beverage (228 million yuan), while the largest outflows were in electronics (-5.068 billion yuan), non-ferrous metals (-2.780 billion yuan), and computers (-1.933 billion yuan) [2][17] ETF Performance - The Huabao Military ETF and Huabao Metals ETF have shown strong performance, with respective six-month gains of 20.94% and 9.40% [4][15] - The Huabao Smart Manufacturing ETF has also performed well, with a six-month gain of 40.84% [4] Investment Opportunities - The ongoing "super cycle" in non-ferrous metals is expected to continue until 2026, driven by factors such as the recovery of the US dollar, strategic stockpiling, and policy effects [17] - Investors are encouraged to actively seize opportunities in the upcoming spring market, as the combination of a weak dollar, supportive policies, and industrial upgrades may lower opportunity costs and improve risk premiums [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment in 2026 continues to warm up. The combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair change" in the US is conducive to Fed easing, and the quality of January's economic data is expected to return to normal. The "broad fiscal + broad monetary" policy in the US promotes economic prosperity. The ECB maintained interest rates unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was implemented as expected without radical tightening, and it raised the 2025 GDP growth forecast while maintaining the 2026 forecast [6]. - In China, the National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference was held on December 23, deploying work for 2026 such as urban renewal, stabilizing the real estate market, and upgrading the construction industry. The renovation of underground pipe networks is a highlight, and it is expected that capital investment will increase slightly next year. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 1.3%, falling short of expectations and the previous value. Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate continued to weaken, while exports remained a significant support [6]. - In asset allocation, the macro - environment is favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors. In the precious metals sector, the logic of gold's rise is clear and it has a high safety margin, while silver has increased volatility risk after a sharp rally. In the non - ferrous metals sector, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions like copper, aluminum, and tin, and attention should be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. The domestic equity sector should be mainly defensive during the year - end and policy - free window period [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4610.6, with a daily increase of 0.344, a weekly increase of 1.85%, a monthly increase of 3.09%, a quarterly decrease of 0.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.729%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase. The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous offensive still needs to wait. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the situation of incremental funds [2][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Options are used for covered call writing to increase returns. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The long - end sentiment is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of monetary policy [7]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.9535, with a daily change of 0%, a weekly decrease of 0.77%, a monthly decrease of 1.49%, a quarterly increase of 0.13%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.70%. The euro - US dollar, US dollar - yen, and other exchange rates also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate was 1.4, with no change on the day, a weekly decrease of 4 bp, a monthly decrease of 10 bp, a quarterly decrease of 5 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 35 bp. The 10Y Chinese government bond yield, 10Y US Treasury yield, and other interest rates also changed [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold was at 1008.76, with a daily decrease of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 2.95%, a monthly increase of 5.75%, a quarterly increase of 15.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 63.34%. Silver and other precious metals also had corresponding changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, driven by the expectation of loose liquidity and the tight supply of silver in the spot market. Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [2][7]. 3.3 Shipping - The container shipping price on the European line was 1799.7, with a weekly increase of 0.22%, a daily increase of 4.65%, a monthly increase of 22.27%, and a year - to - date decrease of 20.26%. The near - term demand is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and attention should be paid to the resumption of shipping in the far - term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the 2026 shipping company's resumption plan, year - end long - term contract signing prices, and the support of pre - Spring Festival cargo owner shipments to prices [2][7]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price continues to rebound. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and pig iron production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment and arrival decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: After the third round of price cuts, coke enterprise profits turned negative. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: After the earthquake in Shanxi, the sentiment of going long is high. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply pressure has been alleviated, and the futures price is mainly running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the upside space is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The spot market is still weak, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the spot price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventories [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventories continue to accumulate, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and the recovery of domestic demand falling short of expectations [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations [7]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventories continue to increase, and the upside space for zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the risk of macro - turnarounds and the unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The downstream's willingness to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and the slowdown of battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel ore, and nickel prices have rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro - and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and the failure of supply to be released as expected [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices has driven the stainless - steel futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The downstream's rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices have rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the unexpected resumption of supply - side production and policy changes [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchases is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the unexpected resumption of supply - side production and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [7]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation remains unresolved, and oil prices have risen for five consecutive days. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is facing a loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material benefits have been realized, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil in oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: The coastal and inland markets are in a stalemate, and methanol is seen as oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to macro - energy and overseas actual shutdown dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Polyester production cuts have dampened market sentiment, and ethylene glycol has entered a low - valuation range again. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations and port inventory rhythms [10]. - **PX**: Bullish funds continue to bet, and the negative news of polyester production cuts has been quickly digested. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and refining and chemical plant disruptions [10]. - **PTA**: Cost and sentiment jointly drive the price, and polyester production cuts have emerged. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and passive profit compression. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the downstream yarn factory's purchasing rhythm and the conversion rhythm between peak and off - peak seasons [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost of upstream raw materials supports the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and the commissioning of new plants [10]. - **Propylene**: The spot market is strong, and there is an expectation of a decrease in PDH operating rates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: The expectation of maintenance boosts the market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: The support of maintenance is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are constraints on both rising and falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and plant dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment is positive, and the short - term futures price is strong. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - valuation support leads to a rebound at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, operating rates, and demand [10]. 3.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil was relatively strong yesterday. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the expected changes in domestic and foreign oil and fat production and demand [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The inventory pressure continues, and the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Snowy weather has a phased impact on the supply in the production area. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Both supply and demand are increasing, and pig prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price maintains a narrow - range oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price trend continues to be strong. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil [10]. - **Cotton**: The rebound continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to production and demand [10]. - **Sugar**: Short - sellers taking profits drives the sugar price to rebound. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to imports and Northern Hemisphere production [10]. - **Pulp**: The price is fluctuating in a recent high - level range, and the futures price trend is dominated by funds. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [10].

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 26 日 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：周四上证指数上涨 0.47%，沪深 300 上涨 0.18%，科创 50 下跌 0.23%，中证 1000 上涨 0.97%，创业板指上 0.30%，恒生指数上涨 0.17%。 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+2.91%)、轻工制造（+1.59%)、机械设备（+1.51%)、汽车（+1.46%)、 非银金融（+1.08%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-1.12%)、有色金属（-0.77%)、商贸零售（-0.47%)、煤炭（-0.24%)、 通信（-0.18%)。 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 19245 亿元，南下资金净流出 11.75 亿港元。 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/王华君/周向昉】机械设备 年度行业策略报告：可控核聚变：招标提速，设备先行 ——20251224 【浙商大消费中观策略 钟烨晨】酒店餐饮 年度行业策略报告：2026 年餐饮行业风险排雷手册—— ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3959.62, up by 0.47% with an increase of 18.67 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13531.41, up by 0.33% with an increase of 44.99 points [2] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4642.54, up by 0.18% with an increase of 8.48 points [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3239.34, up by 0.30% with an increase of 9.77 points [2] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1349.06, down by 0.23% with a decrease of 3.07 points [2] Sector Rankings - The top five sectors by growth include Defense and Military Industry (2.91%), Light Industry Manufacturing (1.59%), Machinery Equipment (1.51%), Automotive (1.46%), and Non-Bank Financials (1.08%) [3] - The bottom five sectors by decline include Comprehensive (-1.12%), Nonferrous Metals (-0.77%), Retail (-0.47%), Coal (-0.24%), and Banking (-0.18%) [3] Market Outlook - The market showed a collective rise with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving seven consecutive days of gains [4] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the importance of maintaining capital market stability [5] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.92 trillion, an increase of 443 billion from the previous trading day [5] - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets [5] - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer sectors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is transitioning from a liquidity-driven valuation expansion to a profit recovery cycle, with structural changes in consumption, precise policy support, and broad profit recovery as the three pillars for understanding the market dynamics leading to 2026 [1]. Group 1: Consumption Dynamics - Investment and exports are expected to stabilize or face mild pressure by 2026, while internal structural changes in consumption will be key to economic resilience [4]. - Consumption is entering a slow upward trajectory, with policy support shifting from goods to services. The marginal impact of traditional consumption stimulus policies, such as trade-in subsidies, is diminishing [5]. - Consumption growth is projected to maintain a rate of around 4% in 2026, reflecting a significant transformation in growth dynamics, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" focus on developing a strong domestic market and fostering new consumption types [5][6]. Group 2: Profit Recovery - Broad profit recovery among enterprises is expected to provide a solid foundation for the market, with nominal GDP significantly rising due to price improvements and sustained profit recovery [7]. - The overall profit growth for the A-share market is forecasted to increase from 8.2% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026, with the ChiNext and STAR Market expected to see profit growth rates of 31.7% and 34.3%, respectively [7][8]. - The improvement in profit growth is attributed to a new industrial cycle driven by AI and internal profit recovery among companies [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The core investment strategy for A-shares in 2026 will focus on the new growth cycle in technology industries and the price increase chain driven by supply-demand logic [9]. - The AI industry chain is identified as a strong technology focus, with significant potential in the computing power sector, while auxiliary equipment demand is expected to rise alongside infrastructure development [9]. - The storage industry is facing structural supply-demand contradictions, with AI-driven demand expected to sustain long-term growth, alongside opportunities in sectors benefiting from high overseas growth and national defense industries [10].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]