12月17日，小鹏汽车董事长兼CEO何小鹏在朋友圈发文，分享了他赴美与近30位AI领域专家交流后的 观察与思考。 何小鹏认为，人形机器人未来将是巨头的竞争舞台，而专用机器人领域则会涌现大量成功机会。他特别 指出，物理AI将在未来三年迎来关键突破，自动驾驶有望直接进入准L4或完整L4阶段。 对于未来竞争格局，何小鹏判断人形机器人将成为巨头竞争的战场，门槛较高；而在各类专用机器人领 域，将会有大量不同领域的选手参与，并存在众多成功机会。 未来三年， 最有可能取得重大突破的领域是物理AI 何小鹏引用哲学家维特根斯坦"语言即世界"的观点，指出语言虽是知识的总结和信息的传递，但也在某 种程度上束缚了对世界的想象。 他观察到，当前行业正期望从语言大模型走向多模态甚至世界模型。何小鹏认为，未来三年最有可能取 得重大突破的领域可能不是数字世界，而是物理AI领域。 他预测自动驾驶将直接逼近L4级别，人形机器人也可能实现从L1到L4初阶的快速跨越。这些突破将深 刻改变人类生活。 谈中美AI机器人发展： 人形机器人将成为巨头竞争的战场 在何小鹏看来，中美两国在AI机器人领域呈现出明显的路径差异。经过与近30位AI领域的内部和外部 ...

12月16日消息，小鹏汽车已在广州市获得L3级自动驾驶道路测试牌照，允许小鹏汽车在广州市指定高快速路段开展L3级有条件自动驾驶测试。 据了解，小鹏汽车已在2025年内为车辆预埋了支持L3级自动驾驶的硬件。软件层面，在2025小鹏科技日上，小鹏汽车发布了第二代VLA大模型，将于2026 年第一季度发布。第二代VLA去除了"语言转译"环节，可实现从视觉信号到动作指令的端到端直接生成，能有效提升车辆自动驾驶水平。 何小鹏提到，特斯拉FSD已经从一年多以前处于流畅体验的L2级高阶辅助驾驶，进入了软件层面令人安心的准L4阶段。他试驾发现，在硅谷和三藩约5个小 时试驾中，采用同一模型的标准车辆和RoboTaxi表现如一，安心平稳，虽然有瑕疵，但是大幅度超过去年的水准。他也坦言，因为时间问题，小鹏第一个版 本的VLA还无法实现当前FSD V14.2的全部能力。 近日，国内车企在L3级自动驾驶商业化准入与落地领域动作频频。12月15日，工信部发布公告表示，长安深蓝与北汽新能源极狐两款搭载L3级有条件自动 驾驶功能的纯电动轿车，正式获得产品准入许可，在北京市部分路段开展上路通行试点；12月16日，鸿蒙智行亦传出已联合深圳市交通 ...

图源：长城汽车 今天，我们站在2025年的尾巴上回顾这一年的变化，可以看到那些曾经靠"零接管"神话圈粉的造车新势力，不得不把PPT上的科幻片改成纪实纪录片；那些 曾在算力军备竞赛中狂奔的供应链，也开始学会在边界内深耕。 浮华渐褪，本真显现。智能驾驶虚假宣传被严打后，如今行业怎么样了？ 官方祛魅后，智驾技术进步更快了 要理解这场智驾减速大戏，我们需要把时间线调到2025年春天。 4月16日，工信部装备工业一司召开智能网联汽车准入管理推进会，一纸禁令掐住了行业多年的吹牛习惯。会议要求"不得进行夸大和虚假宣传，严格履行告 知义务"，并且需要将"组合驾驶辅助"定为官方表述。 2025年即将结束，这一年关于汽车行业有很多关键词，其中之一就是"自动驾驶踩刹车"。 今年春天，工信部一纸公文，将"自动驾驶"列为禁词，车企们宣传的"L2.999"文字游戏被戳破，中国智能驾驶产业被迫从一场持续三年的技术狂欢中清醒过 来。安全最终压倒了速度，责任取代了噱头。 变化是立竿见影的。首先是车企宣传话术风格的剧变。电车通随机查找了国内主流车企的官网，发现"自动驾驶"一词出现频率大幅下降，基本已经消失，取 而代之的是"辅助驾驶""智驾辅助" ...

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors is experiencing a series of positive developments, including the introduction of a humanoid robot and record-high third-quarter financial results, aiming for profitability in the fourth quarter [1][3][4] - The company is transitioning from a pure automotive focus to a broader technology-driven approach, emphasizing AI and autonomous driving [3][30] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Xiaopeng Motors reported total revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 100% [4] - The company has set a delivery guidance of 125,000 to 132,000 units for Q4, indicating confidence in maintaining a monthly delivery level of 42,000 units [7] - The gross margin for Q3 reached a historic high of 20.1%, surpassing Tesla's 18%, although the automotive business gross margin remains at 13.1% [23][24] Product Strategy - Xiaopeng introduced its first super-extended range model, the X9, which achieved record pre-sale orders, particularly in northern regions [10][11] - The company plans to launch three extended range versions of existing electric models in Q1 2026, aiming to boost sales and profitability [12][14] - The extended range models are designed with a large battery and fuel tank to maximize user convenience and address regional sales challenges [17][20] Technological Advancements - Xiaopeng's R&D expenses have significantly increased, reaching 2.43 billion yuan in Q3, a 48.7% rise from the previous year, focusing on electronic architecture and AI technology [28] - The company is leveraging its technology sales, generating 2.33 billion yuan in revenue with a profit margin of 74.6%, primarily from collaborations with Volkswagen [25][27] - Xiaopeng's second-generation VLA model is expected to revolutionize its software capabilities, applicable across various intelligent hardware, including autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots [34][36] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about achieving profitability in Q4, with a high probability of success, and anticipates improvements in automotive gross margins thereafter [30] - Xiaopeng's long-term vision includes significant growth in the humanoid robot market, projecting sales to exceed 1 million units by 2030 [36][40] - The competitive landscape in the automotive market is expected to intensify in 2026, prompting Xiaopeng to focus on technological advancements to secure its future [40]

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors has demonstrated a significant turnaround, achieving a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 100%, and a record delivery of 116,000 vehicles, with a gross margin of 20.1% [2] - The company has evolved from a struggling new energy vehicle manufacturer to a global provider of physical AI infrastructure, indicating a shift in its business model and market perception [2] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 20.38 billion yuan, doubling from the previous year [2] - The delivery volume of 116,000 units marks a historical high for the company [2] - The gross margin of 20.1% signifies a transition to a more stable and profitable business model [2] Valuation Perspective - Major investment banks are adopting the Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuation method for Xiaopeng, recognizing its diverse business segments beyond traditional automotive metrics [3][4] - The company is now viewed as a technology entity rather than just an automotive manufacturer, similar to how Tesla was re-evaluated in the past [5] Business Segments - Xiaopeng's operations are divided into four key segments: 1. Automotive business, providing stable cash flow [4] 2. AI chips, which support future AI computing needs [4] 3. Robotaxi services, representing a recurring revenue model [4] 4. Humanoid robots and flying cars, seen as the ultimate form of embodied intelligence [4] Strategic Moves - The introduction of the Kunpeng Super Range Extender is a tactical decision to expand market reach and data collection capabilities, addressing range anxiety for consumers [6][9] - The company is focusing on building a comprehensive data network through its vehicles to enhance AI model training [9] Technological Advancements - Xiaopeng is developing a self-research Turing AI chip, which serves as a universal brain for various intelligent terminals, including cars and robots [10] - The second-generation VLA model allows for a more intuitive AI driving experience, reducing costs and enhancing the feasibility of Robotaxi services [12] Ecosystem Development - Xiaopeng is shifting towards an ecosystem approach, collaborating with major players like Volkswagen and opening its Robotaxi and humanoid robot SDKs to the industry [14][16] - The company aims to position itself as a foundational technology provider in the physical AI space, similar to Android in the software domain [16] Global Expansion - Xiaopeng's overseas strategy has evolved to include local production and R&D in Europe, with Q3 overseas sales doubling, indicating a successful adaptation to global markets [16] Future Outlook - The company is poised for significant developments by 2026, with plans for Robotaxi trials, humanoid robot production, and flying car deliveries, potentially transforming its revenue streams [13] - Xiaopeng's vision of becoming a global embodied intelligence company is supported by its strong cash reserves and technological advancements [18]

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q3 2025 revenue of 20.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with a gross margin of 20.1%, up 4.8 percentage points, and a net loss of 380 million [1][2] - The company launched its second-generation VLA model on November 5, which introduces a "physical world model" for smart driving applications across multiple scenarios [1] - Xiaopeng aims to achieve mass production of advanced humanoid robots by the end of 2026, with significant progress in its global strategy, including local production in Europe [2] Financial Performance - Q3 vehicle revenue reached 18.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 105%, with a gross margin of 13.1% [1] - The service and other profit margin was 74.6%, showing growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to revenue from technology research and development services [1] - For Q4, the company projects delivery volumes of 125,000 to 132,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 37% to 44%, and total revenue of 21.5 to 23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34% to 43% [2] Strategic Developments - The second-generation VLA model will be co-created with pioneer users by the end of December 2025 and will be fully pushed to the Xiaopeng Ultra model in Q1 2026 [1] - The new IRON humanoid robot was unveiled, featuring three Turing AI chips and solid-state batteries, targeting commercial applications such as guiding and shopping [1] - Xiaopeng's overseas deliveries exceeded 29,000 units from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 125%, with local production projects initiated in Indonesia and Austria, and a research center established in Munich, Germany [2] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 79 billion, 133.6 billion, and 159.8 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 93%, 69%, and 20% [2] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-sales ratios of 1.81, 1.07, and 0.89 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding 20% over the next 6-12 months [5][11]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 20.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with a gross margin of 20.1%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, and a net loss of 380 million [1][5]. - The automotive revenue for Q3 reached 18.05 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 105%, with a gross margin of 13.1% [1][5]. - The company launched its second-generation VLA model on November 5, which is designed for multiple applications including cars and robots, with a full rollout planned for Q1 2026 [1][2]. - The company aims to achieve mass production of its new humanoid robot, IRON, by the end of 2026, targeting commercial applications [2]. - The company has initiated local production projects in Europe, with overseas deliveries exceeding 29,000 units in the first nine months of 2025, a 125% increase year-on-year [2]. - For Q4, the company projects delivery volumes between 125,000 and 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 37% to 44%, with total revenue expected to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 79 billion, 133.6 billion, and 159.8 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 93%, 69%, and 20% [3][5]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected at -1.36 billion, improving to 2.91 billion in 2026 and 6.54 billion in 2027, with significant growth rates of 76.49% and 314.31% respectively [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -5.43 in 2023 to 3.42 in 2027 [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The current market has weak expectations for automotive stimulus policies and overall production and sales volume for next year, indicating a weakening of the automotive cyclical attributes. The core focus is on technology attributes and emerging growth directions [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Guangzhou Auto Show has opened, with multiple automakers unveiling new models for 2026 [1] - GAC has launched the brand "Qijing" in collaboration with Huawei, marking the eighth brand created through partnerships between Huawei and automakers [1] - The Zun界 S800 has achieved over 18,000 pre-orders within 175 days of its launch, demonstrating rapid brand momentum [1] Group 2: Technological Developments - Companies such as XPeng, GAC, and Changan showcased self-developed robotic products during the auto show [1] - XPeng recently released its second-generation VLA large model and humanoid robot Iron, boosting market expectations [1] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be significant for new vehicle launches from Huawei, especially with the expected advancements in Tesla's FSD V14, Robotaxi, and Optimus technologies [1] Group 3: Industry Implications - The integration of automotive and robotics as core applications of physical AI is expected to catalyze a turning point in industry trends [1] - The technological attributes of automotive stocks may undergo reassessment as these advancements unfold [1]

Core Viewpoint - Companies such as Xiaopeng, GAC, and Changan showcased self-developed robotic products during the auto show, indicating a growing market expectation for advancements in automotive and robotics technology, particularly with the upcoming releases of Tesla's FSD V14, Robotaxi, and Optimus in 2026 [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The automotive and robotics sectors are positioned as core applications of physical AI, which is expected to drive a turning point in industry trends [1] - The Robot Industry ETF (159551) tracks the Robot Index (H30590), focusing on companies involved in the research, manufacturing, and application of robotics [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes publicly listed companies from various sectors such as mechanical manufacturing, electronic equipment, and information technology, emphasizing technological innovation and industrial automation trends [1] - The aim of the index is to reflect the overall development performance in the field of intelligent equipment and automation solutions [1]

Group 1 - The current market has weak expectations for automotive stimulus policies and total production and sales volume for next year, indicating a weakening of the automotive cyclical attributes, while technology and emerging growth directions are the core focus [1] - Xiaopeng Motors' Technology Day showcased the second-generation VLA large model, Robotaxi, and humanoid robot Iron, which boosted market expectations. By 2026, with the iteration and mass production of technologies like Tesla's FSD V14, Robotaxi, and Optimus, the automotive and robotics sectors are expected to experience a turning point in industry trends, leading to a potential revaluation of the technology attributes of automotive stocks [1] - The Hong Kong Automotive ETF (520720) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive Index (931239), which selects listed companies involved in vehicle manufacturing, components, and intelligent driving from the Stock Connect range. This index reflects the overall performance of listed companies related to the automotive industry and features high R&D investment and growth characteristics, with the vehicle sector accounting for over 60% of its weight, demonstrating strong market elasticity and international characteristics [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Automotive ETF (520720) can be traded directly through A-share accounts without the need to open a Stock Connect account, effectively addressing the pain point of ordinary investors lacking investment tools [1]