美国上周初请失业金人数温和上升至20.8万人，劳动力需求持续疲软。美股三大指数低开，纳指跌 0.15%，标普500指数跌0.09%，道指跌0.42%。 特朗普呼吁大幅增加国防预算至1.5万亿美元，国防军工股大涨，洛克希德马丁涨8.4%，L3Harris Technologies涨6.8%，通用动力涨超4%，雷神技术涨3.7%。 台积电涨超1%，3nm制程供不应求，业内人士透露台积电调高报价并暂停新案启动。 小鹏汽车涨超2%，于2026全球新品发布会发布四款新车，均搭载第二代VLA大模型。 (格隆汇) ...

⑦ 【特朗普：将禁止机构投资者购买更多单户住宅】据新华财经，美国总统特朗普7日通过社交媒体表示，他正在立即采取措施禁止大型机构投资者购买 更多单户住宅，以应对太多人负担不起购房的问题。 每经记者｜宋欣悦 每经编辑｜程鹏 高涵 ① 【三大期指普跌】截至发稿，道指期货跌0.23%、标普500指数期货跌0.15%、纳指期货跌0.23%。 ② 【脑再生科技盘前续涨27%】脑再生科技美股盘前继续上涨27%，此前3日累计上涨157%。消息上，马斯克日前"量产预告"催化，导致脑机接口概念大 爆发。 ③ 【特朗普呼吁大幅增加国防预算，国防军工股盘前普涨，洛克希德·马丁涨超7%】国防军工股盘前普涨，诺斯罗普·格鲁曼、洛克希德·马丁涨超7%，雷 神技术涨超5%。消息面上，据央视新闻，当地时间1月7日，特朗普表示，2027年美国军事预算不应该是1万亿美元，而应该是1.5万亿美元。 ④ 【摩根大通将取代高盛，成为苹果信用卡新发行方】当地时间1月7日，苹果公司宣布，摩根大通将成为苹果信用卡的新发行方，取代之前的合作方高 盛。苹果表示，这一过渡可能需要24个月的时间。 ⑤ 【商务部回应审查Meta收购Manus】据新华社，商务部8日举行 ...

台积电(TSM.US)盘前涨1.14%，报322.3美元。消息面上，台积电先进制程维持高产能利用率，其中3nm 制程持续供不应求。芯片业内人士透露，台积电今年除调高3nm报价外，已暂时停止3nm新案启动。业 内人士分析，主因在于订单满载、现有产能已难以负荷，短期内扩产速度亦难以追上客户需求涌入。台 积电正鼓励仍处于产品规划初期的客户，直接评估导入2nm制程，以利后续量产与成本配置。 野村发研报指，鉴于供应严重受限，市场对亚洲AI半导体及服务器供应链公司今年的盈利预期将持续 上调。相信凭借相对审慎的产能扩建计划，台积电能充分利用英伟达和博通引领的强劲AI逻辑半导体 产业在今年实现潜在增长，并带来25%至30%的营收增长(以美元计)。(格隆汇) | TSM 台积电 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 318.680 4 -8.750 -2.67% | | 收盘价 01/07 15:59 美东 | | 322.300 + 3.620 +1.14% | | 盘前价 01/08 04:13 美东 | | 二 24 24 5 8 9 日 0 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 326.300 | 开 ...

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 12月19日消息，据台媒报道，2026年三季度，台积电位于美国的子公司TSMC Arizona第二晶圆厂将启动设备导入。该厂计划于2027年投入3nm制程生产， 较原计划提前一年。 设备导入后预计需一年以上时间完成调试并实现量产，与魏哲家此前表态一致。此外，采用2nm制程的第三晶圆厂厂务工程已于今年初发包，施工将于 2026年第二季度启动，紧接第二工厂建设进度。 台积电如此积极地把产能转移到美国，就不怕技术泄密吗？这也是外界最关心的问题之一，台积电之前多次表态安抚质疑，表示最先进的工艺还会在总部 基地生产。 现在更有主管部门出来表态放风，表示关键技术都会有管制，而且参与人员也会纳入其中，台积电未来会推进到1.4nm工艺，需要满足N-2要求后才能出 海。 N-2意味着海外基地生产的工艺要落后台积电本土两代才能转移出去，比如台积电当前最先进的量产工艺是2nm（N2），那么海外生产的就是5nm级别 （N5），中间还隔着3nm工艺，落后两代。 未来台积电量产1.4nm（A14）工艺之后，2nm工艺才会在美国 ...

Core Insights - The report from Morgan Stanley highlights a shortage in TSMC's 3nm capacity due to increased demand from major AI companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Tesla, prompting TSMC to urgently expand its production capacity [1][2] - TSMC is expected to increase its 3nm capacity by an additional 20,000 wafers per month by the end of this year, raising the total monthly capacity to 110,000-120,000 wafers, with further expansions planned for 2026 [1][2] - The anticipated capital expenditure for TSMC is projected to rise from the original $43 billion to between $48 billion and $50 billion for the upcoming year due to these expansions [1][2] TSMC Capacity Expansion - TSMC's 3nm capacity is set to increase to 140,000-150,000 wafers per month by 2026, primarily from the second phase of the Arizona facility and the conversion of existing 4nm and 5nm lines in Taiwan [2] - There are challenges related to cleanroom space, as some facilities are being repurposed for 2nm processes, limiting the expansion of 3nm capacity to existing sites [2] Impact on Semiconductor Industry - The expansion of TSMC's 3nm capacity and increased capital expenditure is expected to positively impact semiconductor equipment manufacturers [2] - Tesla's future AI6 chip, which will utilize 2nm technology, is projected to generate approximately $2 billion annually in foundry opportunities for TSMC [2] Analyst Outlook - The semiconductor sector remains optimistic about TSMC, Creative Technology, and other related companies, with TSMC maintaining an "outperform" rating and a target price of NT$1,688 [2]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is set to implement a four-year price increase plan starting in 2026 for advanced processes below 5nm, 4nm, 3nm, and 2nm, in response to strong global AI demand and tight production capacity [2][3]. Group 1: Price Increase Plan - TSMC has begun notifying clients about the price increase plan, which is expected to raise advanced process prices by approximately 5% to 10% starting in 2026 [2][3]. - The price adjustments will vary based on client purchase volumes and relationships, reflecting rising production costs [3][4]. - This marks TSMC's fourth consecutive year of price increases, with previous adjustments being relatively moderate, only in single-digit percentages [4]. Group 2: Revenue and Market Position - In Q3 2024, TSMC's advanced process revenue accounted for 74% of total revenue, with 5nm contributing 37% and 3nm 23%, up from 69% the previous year [3]. - The proportion of advanced processes is projected to rise to around 75% by 2025, indicating strong demand and market position [3]. - TSMC's growth is primarily driven by advanced processes, with significant revenue expected from AI applications, potentially reaching 35% of total revenue by 2028, possibly sooner [4]. Group 3: Client Relationships and Strategy - TSMC emphasizes long-term strategic pricing rather than short-term opportunism, maintaining strong relationships with clients even during challenging market conditions [3][4]. - The company has historically avoided arbitrary price increases, focusing on collaboration with clients to plan capacity and investment in advanced technologies [4].

Group 1 - TSMC is capitalizing on the AI market opportunities, with a strong demand for its advanced 3nm process as smartphone market inventories recover [1][3] - The iPhone 17 series has shown better-than-expected sales, leading Apple to increase orders, which boosts TSMC's 3nm family order momentum [1][2] - Research firm Counterpoint Research predicts TSMC's market share in smartphone SoCs at 87% by 2025 for 5nm and below processes, increasing to 89% by 2028 [2] Group 2 - TSMC anticipates strong AI-related demand through 2025, while non-AI terminal markets are showing signs of recovery [3] - The recovery in high-end smartphone sales is expected to drive TSMC's order momentum, with a potential increase in utilization rates for previously weak 6/7nm capacities [3] - Demand for automotive semiconductors remains weak, pending inventory adjustments from suppliers [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating significant benefits from the high growth in AI demand and moderate growth in non-AI semiconductor demand [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of $33.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, with a gross margin of 59.5%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point increase year-on-year [2]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to approximately 35% and expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion [2]. - The company is optimistic about AI demand, projecting a CAGR of around 45% for AI revenue from 2024 to 2029, with expectations that future AI revenue growth will exceed this guidance [4]. Revenue and Profitability Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company's wafer revenue from advanced processes showed significant contributions from 3nm (23%), 5nm (37%), and 7nm (14%) processes [3]. - The revenue from downstream applications in Q3 2025 was stable for HPC, with increases of 19% for smartphones, 20% for IoT, and 18% for automotive [3]. - The company expects a full-year capital expenditure (CAPEX) of $40 billion to $42 billion [2]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $53.2 billion, $65.9 billion, and $83.2 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are $122.6 billion in 2025, $144.4 billion in 2026, and $172.8 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 36.6%, 17.8%, and 19.6% respectively [9]. - The projected EBITDA for 2025 is $61.8 billion, with a net profit margin expected to improve over the forecast period [10].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, particularly in AI applications [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - TSMC's consolidated revenue for Q3 reached NT$989.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%. In USD, the revenue was $33.1 billion [3]. - The net profit for the quarter was NT$452.3 billion, marking a 39.1% year-on-year growth and setting a historical record [3]. - The gross margin was 59.5%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [3]. Product Composition - In terms of product composition, the revenue from the 3nm process accounted for 23% of total wafer revenue, while the 5nm process contributed 37%, and the 7nm process made up 14%. Advanced processes (7nm and below) collectively represented 74% of total wafer revenue [3]. Platform Revenue Breakdown - High-Performance Computing (HPC) accounted for 57% of revenue, surpassing smartphones at 30%, IoT at 5%, automotive at 5%, and digital consumer electronics at 1% [4]. - The fastest-growing platform was IoT, which saw a year-on-year growth of 20%. Revenue growth for HPC, smartphones, and automotive platforms was recorded at 0%, 19%, and 18%, respectively [4]. Future Outlook - TSMC forecasts Q4 sales between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, exceeding market expectations of $31.23 billion. The gross margin is expected to be between 59% and 61% [4]. - For 2025, TSMC anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 30% [4]. Management Insights - TSMC's CEO emphasized the strong and increasing demand for AI, which is expected to drive future growth. The company plans to continue investing to support this demand [5]. - The management highlighted the need to address the supply-demand gap in advanced packaging and is working to enhance capacity for 2026 [5]. - TSMC is accelerating capacity expansion at its Arizona facility and is preparing to upgrade technology for more advanced processes. A second plot of land near the existing factory will be acquired to support expansion plans [5].

Group 1 - TSMC's stock price increased by 3.49% on October 6, marking a total rise of 4.96% over two days, reflecting optimistic market sentiment towards the company's future, particularly due to its advanced process technology [1] - TSMC, as the world's largest foundry, is at the forefront of AI technology, with its 3nm and upcoming 2nm processes being favored by major clients like Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek, driving demand and price increases for its services [1] - The price of TSMC's advanced N3P process has risen by approximately 20%, significantly impacting the cost of new flagship smartphone chips, which will lead to higher prices for consumers [1] Group 2 - TSMC is expected to report better-than-expected revenue for Q3, with projections indicating a revenue of $32.4 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of around 40%, driven by the growing demand for AI applications and increased silicon content in new Apple and NVIDIA chips [2] - The demand for high-end processes is continuously increasing, with TSMC's advanced processes expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, particularly with the upcoming 2nm process set to drive performance in 2026 [2] - TSMC's market environment and strategic positioning suggest strong growth potential in the coming years, with predictions that revenue contributions from 7nm and below processes will exceed 80% when 2nm volume production begins [2]