期货研究报告|化工专题 2025-06-17 我国丁二烯供需分析及年度展望 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 近年来，我国丁二烯的自给率基本维持在 90%以上，供应端主要受国内产能变动影响。 然而，随着下游需求的增长和部分领域对丁二烯品质要求的提高，我国丁二烯市场仍 存在一定的供需缺口。尽管国内丁二烯行业已进入成熟阶段，但我国丁二烯产能仍在 持续扩张。到 2025 年末，我国丁二烯产能预计达 761.7 万吨/年，同比增幅约 14.77%。 2019 年以来，港口库存占比国内社会库存的均值为 34%，而 2016 年以来国内社会 ...

伊朗甲醇装置停车，甲醇价格再度冲高 甲醇日报 | 2025-06-17 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润698元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1993元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差129元/吨（-73），内蒙南线1890元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2380元/吨（+115）， 鲁南基差116元/吨（+40）；河南2300元/吨（+175），河南基差36元/吨（+100）；河北2130元/吨（+25），河北基差-74 元/吨（-50）。隆众内地工厂库存379120吨（+8630），西北工厂库存237100吨（+2600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单302090 吨（+39910），西北工厂待发订单167000吨（+17000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2585元/吨（+95），太仓基差121元/吨（+20），CFR中国285美元/吨（+13），华东进口价差-15 元/吨（+0），常州甲醇2520元/吨；广东甲醇2480元/吨（+70），广东基差16元/吨（-5）。隆众港口总库存652200吨 （+71000），江苏港口库存312000吨（+3 ...

Group 1 - A new catalyst has been developed by researchers from Anhui University of Technology and other institutions, enabling the direct synthesis of para-xylene from carbon dioxide and hydrogen, breaking the world record for production efficiency of such catalysts [1][2] - Para-xylene (PX) is a critical raw material for producing chemical products, with an annual demand in China exceeding 30 million tons. The traditional production method relies on processing heavy oil, which is energy-intensive and generates high emissions [1] - The new method utilizes renewable energy to produce hydrogen, which is then reacted with carbon dioxide to manufacture PX, offering a greener alternative to conventional high-energy and high-emission production processes [1] Group 2 - The newly developed "metal oxide-molecular sieve" composite catalyst operates in two parts: the metal oxide facilitates the reaction between carbon dioxide and hydrogen to form simple olefins, while the molecular sieve assembles these olefins into the final PX product [2] - The molecular sieve has been designed with a unique "capsulation" approach to minimize impurities in the final product, resulting in unprecedented production efficiency, with over 1 kilogram of PX produced per kilogram of catalyst in a day [2] - The design concept of the composite catalyst is considered universal, with potential applications in other reaction systems that utilize carbon dioxide and hydrogen to produce high-value chemical products, enabling customized production [2]

【日度乙二醇市场：价格震荡、利润亏损、开工率提升】期货主力合约价格震荡走弱，从4279元/吨下 滑至4250元/吨，华东现货价格稳定在4315元/吨，基差扩大至120元/吨。产业链利润整体处于深度亏损 区间，石脑油制、乙烯制和甲醇制利润分别为 -115.45美元/吨、 -646.81元/吨和 -1297.07元/吨，煤制利 润连续多日稳定在 -258元/吨。 尽管全面亏损，但油制与煤制产能同步提升，油制开工率大幅回升 6.65%至62.51%，煤制开工率提升4.24%至52.64%，带动总开工率提升3%至58.66%，显示上游装置检修 恢复速度超预期。需求端，聚酯负荷稳定在89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持63.43%，终端刚需采购特征明 显。 港口去库进程加速，华东主港库存环比大降5.72%至56.38万吨，其中张家港库存锐减23.85%至16.6 万吨，周度到港量缩减26.42%至10.08万吨，进口压力有所缓解。当前乙二醇市场矛盾集中于成本坍塌 与供需错配的博弈。 产业链上，虽原油价格反弹带动石脑油制成本边际上移，但各工艺路线现金流仍 未摆脱亏损。供应端增量源于油制装置集中重启和煤制产能利用率提升，乙烯法制 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月16日 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -25% -16% -7% 2% 12% 21% 30% 24-06 24-09 24-12 25-03 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.原料价格持续弱势，短期供需均存 走高预期——轮胎行业月报 2.己二酸短期基本面有望向好，关注 一体化龙头企业——基础化工行业 简评 3.制冷剂行业延续高景气——氟化 工行业月报 [Table_NewTitle 百菌清价格调涨 ] ，关注农化板块相关机 会 标配 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 联系人 1）百菌清价格调涨，相关企业有望受益。根据中国农药工业协会资讯，6月12日，上海泰 禾国 ...

| 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | | 1174 194 | 18 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 14 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 980 1546922 | 4 -59463 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | | 1448684 | 22530 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -248256 | 36120 | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | | -235043 | -20310 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 6642 | -1062 | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | | 877 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 3 | -7 | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | | -59 | 0 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 54 | -11 | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | | 68 | 1 | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | | 1210 | -30 华中重碱(日,元/ ...

1. Report Core View - The launch of new propylene futures is expected to promote the combination of futures and spot markets, enhance and meet the diverse risk management needs of physical enterprises, help the market discover prices, and further promote the healthy and stable development of the industry. The report comprehensively analyzes and introduces the propylene variety from a basic perspective, covering futures contracts, industry characteristics, and development trends [2][3] 2. Report Content Summary 2.1 Propylene Futures Contract - **Contract Introduction**: The trading code of propylene futures is PL, with a trading unit of 20 tons per lot. Based on the average spot price of propylene in 2024 of about 6,900 yuan/ton, the value of each lot is about 138,000 yuan. The minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, and the contract months are from January to December. The last trading day is the 10th trading day of the contract month [7][9][10] - **Option Contract**: The trading code for call options is PL - contract month - C - strike price, and for put options is PL - contract month - P - strike price. The trading unit is 1 lot of propylene futures contract, the minimum price change is 0.5 yuan/ton, and the contract months are the two consecutive near - months of the underlying futures contract. The last trading day is the third - last trading day before (and including) the 15th calendar day of the month before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract [12] - **Delivery Grade**: The benchmark delivery product is Type I propylene that meets the requirements of "National Standard of the People's Republic of China - Polymer - grade Propylene" (GB/T 7716 - 2024), with a water content ≤ 20mg/kg, and no requirements for hydrogen and carbonyl sulfide. The alternative delivery product allows a water content of 20 - 50mg/kg, with other indicators the same as the benchmark product [7][14] - **Risk Management**: The minimum trading margin for propylene futures contracts is 5% of the contract value. The margin standard increases to 10% from the 16th calendar day of the month before the delivery month to the last calendar day of that month, and to 20% during the delivery month. The position limit for non - futures company members and customers is 2,000 lots from contract listing to the 15th calendar day of the month before the delivery month, 500 lots from the 16th calendar day to the last calendar day of that month, and 50 lots (0 for natural person customers) during the delivery month [16][17][18] 2.2 Propylene Basic Concepts - **Physical Properties**: Propylene has a density of 1.914 kg/m³, a melting point of - 185°C, a boiling point of - 47.7°C, a flash point of - 108°C, an ignition temperature of 460°C, and a saturated vapor pressure of 1158 kPa. It burns with a bright flame, has low solubility in water, and is soluble in organic solvents such as ethanol and ether [20] - **Chemical Properties**: The chemical properties of propylene are determined by the double bond and the hydrogen atoms on the allyl group. It is the smallest stable unsaturated hydrocarbon with low symmetry, an electric dipole moment of 0.35D, and is prone to various chemical reactions [21] - **Storage and Transportation**: Propylene should be stored in pressurized liquefied form in carbon steel or stainless - steel containers, and long - term storage can use low - temperature liquefaction with vacuum - insulated storage tanks. Safety measures such as fire and explosion prevention, leakage prevention, and electrostatic protection are required. Transportation methods include road, rail, sea, and pipeline, and appropriate means should be selected according to distance and volume [24] 2.3 Propylene Industry Chain - **Overview**: The propylene industry chain has the "petroleum - propylene - polypropylene" as the core. The upstream includes petroleum, natural gas, coal, propane, naphtha, and methanol. The mid - stream involves production processes such as cracking, dehydrogenation, and coal - chemical processes. The downstream includes chemicals such as polypropylene, propylene oxide, and butanol, and the end - use demand is complex, covering multiple fields such as plastics, coatings, and textiles [26] - **Production Processes** - **Steam Cracking**: It is the core process for producing low - carbon olefins in the petrochemical industry, with ethylene as the core product and propylene as a co - product. In 2024, it accounted for about 35% of propylene supply. The product yield is negatively correlated with the molecular weight of the raw material. Although it currently maintains a basic supply position, its share is gradually decreasing [32] - **Catalytic Cracking**: It is a key secondary processing technology in oil refining. The conventional propylene yield is about 4%, while the DCC technology can achieve a propylene yield of over 20% [36] - **Coal - to - Propylene**: It includes CTO and MTO/MTP technologies. The MTP technology can increase the propylene selectivity to over 70%. China's coal - to - olefin industry is on a sustainable development path [39] - **Propane/Alkane Dehydrogenation**: The PDH process uses propane as the raw material and has advantages such as a short construction period, low investment cost, and low carbon emissions. In 2024, it accounted for about 30% of domestic propylene production capacity. The MDH process uses liquefied petroleum gas as the raw material and has strong raw material adaptability [41][42]

兴发集团自1999年6月16日上市至今，已迎来26周年。从上市首日收盘价为11.4元、市值18.24亿元，到如今市值达到236.87 亿元，兴发集团的成长不仅仅是规模的扩张，更是化工产业链的深度布局，但从最近几年公司经营表现来看，业绩波动较 为明显。 兴发集团的主营业务包括磷矿石的开采及销售、磷酸盐、磷肥、草甘膦、有机硅等化工产品的生产和销售。其核心产品主 要分为特种化学品和农药等，从产品收入结构来看，特种化学品占比最高，达到18.59%，其次是农药，占比18.33%。 兴发集团上市的1999年，当年实现归母净利润0.26亿元，截至最新完整财年的2024年，公司实现16.01亿元的归母净利润， 累计利润增长了5982.55%。这26个年间，兴发集团无一年份出现亏损，归母净利润增长的年份达到19年，占比高达 73.08%。从最近几年的财报看出，公司盈利能力存在较大波动。 营收角度分析，兴发集团2020年实现营收183.90亿元，2024年达到283.96亿元。期间营收呈现先增后降再回升的态势，2021 年和2022年连续两年保持高增长，2023年出现下滑，2024年基本持平。 利润角度分析，2020年兴发集团实 ...

财务方面，于2022年度、2023年度、2024年度，长裕集团实现营业收入分别约为16.69亿元、16.07亿元、16.37亿元人民币；同期，净利润分别约为2.55亿 元、1.89亿元、2.08亿元人民币。 | 项目 | 2024 年度/2024 | 2023 年度/2023 | 2022 年度/2022 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 年 12月 31 日 | 年 12月 31 日 | 年 12月 31 日 | | 资产总额(万元) | 167,183.81 | 141,095.68 | 131,897.57 | | 归属于母公司所有者权益(万元) | 126,681.05 | 104,461.23 | 83,864.16 | | 资产负债率(母公司)(%) | 5.16 | 3.30 | 6.25 | | 营业收入(万元) | 163,708.79 | 160,735.65 | 166.856.85 | | 净利润(万元) | 20,780.49 | 18,889.80 | 25,463.17 | | 归属于母公司所有者净利润(万元) | 20,485.15 | 18,79 ...

风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 今日市场热点仍为美容护理、IP、金属、化工等，但板块内部轮动频繁，获取短线超额收益不易。新消 费、创新药、化工处于绝对趋势领导地位，多由机构资金主导，趋势股有其玩法，不能仅看短期表现。 黑马玩短线波段会错失部分趋势大涨机会，但博弈短线强势股分歧机会也有收获。可控核聚变、稳定币 多由柚子主导，短线可参与龙头或等分歧时介入。市场情况在变化，如创新药、固态板块，不同操作结 果不同。固态板块中设备股表现较好，部分龙头股分歧调整。投资要把握好短线节奏与选股，不可能赚 全板块的钱，符合模式买点可跟进，不行就换策略。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 节奏，太关键了！ 和讯自选股写手 股票名称["利民股份","圣诺生物","三生国建","舒泰神","雄帝科技","恒宝股份（维权）","史丹 利","宏工科技","纳科诺尔","容百科技","曼恩斯特" ...