Market Overview - The futures market for paraxylene (PX) is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 7330.0 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 2.14% [1] - As of December 24, Asian isomer MX increased by $5 to $723/ton FOB Korea, while Asian PX also rose by $5 to $880/ton FOB Korea and $901/ton CFR China [1] Production and Capacity - As of December 26, China's PX operating rate was at 88.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [1] - The operating rate for Asian PX was reported at 79.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [1] - In terms of imports, South Korea exported 283,000 tons of PX to China in mid-December, an increase of 8,000 tons year-on-year [1] Institutional Insights - Newhu Futures indicates that the PX fundamentals are relatively stable in the short term, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to persist until new capacity comes online before Q3 next year, leading to an optimistic market outlook for PX [3] - Guotai Junan Futures notes a marginal easing on the supply side, with several PX facilities undergoing maintenance or restarting, while domestic PX operating rates remain high at 88.2% [3] - The demand side shows a decrease in PTA operating rates to 70.9%, with several facilities either restarting or reducing output, indicating a potential shift in PX supply and demand dynamics [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油：供应过剩担忧下，油价震荡偏弱运行 周度油价先涨后跌，其中WTI 2月合约收盘下跌1.61美元至56.74美元/桶，跌幅2.76。布伦特2月合约收 盘下跌1.60美元至60.64美元/桶，跌幅2.57%。SC2602周五夜盘以432.6元/桶收盘。外盘因圣诞节休市， 随后周五大幅收跌，基本回吐油价周内涨幅。 市场关注俄乌谈判进展，俄方将要求对美乌拟定的这份和平方案作出关键性修改，其中包括对乌克兰军 方施加更多限制条款。该人士表示，俄方将这份二十点和平方案视作后续谈判的起点，但同时认为，这 份方案未能回应俄方提出的诸多核心问题。当前来看，俄乌和平仍需要较长时间来达成，地缘带来的扰 动仍会持续。 国内原油产量方面，2025年我国海洋石油产量约6800万吨，同比增长约250万吨，约占全国石油增产量 的八成。2025年我国持续加大海洋勘探力度，海上油气增储上产资源基础不断夯实。截至今年三季度 末，中国海域获5个新发现，成功评价22个含油气构造，11个新项目投产。在北部湾盆地潜山领域实现 重大突破，成功发现我国海上首个深层—超深层碎屑岩亿吨级油田惠州 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Real Estate Market - Relaxation of real estate policies in first-tier cities significantly supports demand for low-priced housing, with expectations for other core cities to follow suit, potentially leading to more measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as land acquisition and mortgage interest subsidies [1][2][4] - Recent policy changes in Beijing include allowing multi-child families to purchase additional properties and lowering social security requirements for non-residents, which are expected to stimulate demand for affordable housing [2][4] Coal Market - Domestic supply tightening and demand recovery have led to a narrowing decline in thermal coal prices, with expectations for price stabilization in the future [1][5] - The market for coking coal is under short-term pressure due to increased imports and expectations of lower downstream demand for coke, with a forecast of a weak and stable trend for coke prices [1][6] - By 2026, the thermal coal market supply-demand balance is expected to improve, benefiting companies like China Shenhua due to reduced imports from Indonesia [1][8][9] Cleanroom Engineering Industry - The cleanroom engineering market is projected to reach 350 billion yuan by 2026, driven by demand from the electronics industry, particularly in semiconductor and AI technology sectors [1][10][12] - Key players in the cleanroom engineering sector include Shenghui Integration and Yaxiang Integration, which have shown significant revenue growth and are expanding their market presence [12][13] Solar Thermal Power - The government aims to achieve a total installed capacity of 15 million kilowatts for solar thermal power by 2030, with policies in place to support this growth and improve revenue structures for solar thermal plants [1][14][15] - Companies to watch in this sector include Xizi Energy and Material Energy, which have experience in related projects and technologies [15] Key Market Trends and Projections PX and PTA Market - PX prices have risen due to limited new supply expected in the coming years, with a significant increase in demand from downstream products [1][18][19] - PTA is also experiencing a supply vacuum, with no new capacity added this year, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics by 2026 [1][19] Polyester Filament Yarn Industry - The polyester filament yarn industry is seeing price increases due to coordinated production cuts among major manufacturers, with a positive outlook for 2026 driven by both domestic and international demand [1][20] Organic Silicon Market - The organic silicon market is expected to improve in supply-demand balance, with a focus on new applications in renewable energy and electric vehicles driving demand growth [1][21][22] - Companies to monitor include Hesheng Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, and Dongyue Silicon [22][23] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies for investment consideration include: - In the polyester chain: Tongkun Co., New Fengming, Hengyi Petrochemical, and others [23] - In the organic silicon sector: Hesheng Silicon, Xin'an Chemical, and others [23] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, highlighting significant trends and potential investment opportunities across various industries.

近期A股市场连续上涨，市场期待的跨年行情逐渐启动。在国内外基本面尚未出现重大变化之际，当下 反弹更像是前期分母端流动性紧缩预期边际缓和后的全球风险资产共振修复，海外主要股指均实现不同 程度的上涨。值得一提的是市场逐渐不再聚焦于AI中外映射行情的单一叙事，而是向更广泛的领域扩 散，呈现出AI、内需、涨价链、新的产业主题（商业航天）轮涨的格局。单一叙事驱动下的市场上涨 具备不稳定与高波动性，真正的牛市往往是广泛市场机会涌现与形成合力，在当前市场缓步向上，行业 轮动加速之际，2026年新的投资主线也正在慢慢浮出水面。 2 如何理解近期各产业链涨价：实物消耗的扩散与汇聚 当下涨价链成为市场焦点，通过梳理各行业涨价函具体内容与业内分析可以看到，原材料价格的上涨成 为价格主要推升因素；与此同时，反内卷政策的效果也正在显现，在面临上游涨价，下游压价的困境 时，部分企业开始选择自发减产与联合提价的方式维护产业合理竞争秩序。往后看由于需求端的景气程 度差异，涨价的持续性也有所不同。对于大宗商品而言，我们认为凌厉的上涨可能有两层原因：本轮有 色金属的上涨，可能在指示边际需求更多由大量高毛利与成长性的新兴部门所驱动，占后者的成本比 ...

红星发展公告，公司控股子公司重庆大足红蝶锶业有限公司（下称"大足红蝶"）需搬迁进入化工园区。 现搬迁扩产项目重庆瑞得思达光电科技有限公司（下称"瑞得思达"，瑞得思达与大足红蝶出资股东一 致，各股东出资比例一致）建设工作已基本完成，具备试生产条件，公司拟对大足红蝶实施停产，停产 后部分生产设备将转移至公司控股子公司瑞得思达，大足红蝶后续业务将由瑞得思达承接。 ...

红星发展（600367）(600367.SH)发布公告，公司控股子公司重庆大足红蝶锶业有限公司(下称大足红蝶) 根据《国务院办公厅关于推进城镇人口密集区危险化学品生产企业搬迁改造的指导意见》(国办发 [2017]77号)，需搬迁进入化工园区。现搬迁扩产项目重庆瑞得思达光电科技有限公司(下称瑞得思达， 瑞得思达与大足红蝶出资股东一致，各股东出资比例一致)建设工作已基本完成，具备试生产条件，公 司拟对大足红蝶实施停产，停产后部分生产设备将转移至公司控股子公司瑞得思达，大足红蝶后续业务 将由瑞得思达承接。 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-26 江苏港口库存快速回升，关注后续MTO检修计划 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤495元/吨（+5），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润400元/吨（-15）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1865元/吨（-5），内蒙北线基差303元/吨（+5），内蒙南线1860元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2223元/吨（-15），鲁 南基差261元/吨（-5）；河南2085元/吨（-10），河南基差123元/吨（+0）；河北2095元/吨（+0），河北基差193元/吨 （+10）。隆众内地工厂库存403970吨（+12830），西北工厂库存231500吨（+5700）；隆众内地工厂待发订单201128 吨（-19301），西北工厂待发订单95500吨（-22300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2145元/吨（-10），太仓基差-17元/吨（+0），CFR中国252美元/吨（+4），华东进口价差-22元/ 吨（-21），常州甲醇2305元/吨；广东甲醇2120元/吨（+0），广东基差-42元/吨（+10）。隆众港口总库存1412509吨 （+193691），江苏港口库存815291吨（ ...

Group 1: JD (京东) Analysis - The revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to decline by 0.4% year-on-year to 345.5 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit expected to be 216 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 0.1% [2][12] - JD's retail revenue is anticipated to decrease by 4.7% year-on-year to 292.6 billion yuan in Q4 2025, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year driven by national subsidies [3][12] - The company is expected to face pressure on growth in the battery-powered category, while the daily necessities category is projected to maintain relatively stable growth [3][12] - JD is actively responding to market changes by increasing subsidies, which may lead to a decline in retail profit margins year-on-year [3][12] - The company is focusing on its food delivery and international business, with expectations of narrowing losses in the food delivery segment in Q4 [12] - JD has launched "JD Review" to innovate the local life service ecosystem, aiming to provide objective consumer references [12] Group 2: Deer Chemical (迪尔化工) Analysis - Deer Chemical is transitioning from a cyclical business model to a growth-oriented one by integrating its nitrate production with molten salt energy storage [4][11] - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in production capacity starting in 2025, which will enhance its sales and overall performance [4][11] - The traditional business is anticipated to recover as the chemical industry stabilizes, with nitrate prices supported by liquid ammonia [11][13] - The demand for molten salt is projected to grow significantly due to its applications in concentrated solar power and flexible coal power generation [13][16] - The company aims to establish a complete product matrix involving potassium nitrate and sodium nitrate, enhancing its competitive edge in the energy storage market [16] Group 3: Unisoc (紫光国微) Analysis - Unisoc is collaborating with Ningde Times to establish a leading platform for automotive-grade chips, enhancing its market competitiveness [15][16] - The establishment of Unisoc Tongxin aims to optimize capital structure and improve performance in the automotive domain [16] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for special integrated circuits driven by national defense and commercial aerospace sectors [16] - Unisoc maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.723 billion, 2.460 billion, and 3.495 billion yuan respectively, with a strong growth outlook [16]

12月25日，A股市场震荡上行，截至14:27，电池50ETF(159796)午后强势上冲涨0.83%，成交额超2亿元，冲击五连阳！ 电池50ETF(159796)标的指数成分股涨跌互现，三花智控大涨超5%，先导智能涨超2%，阳光电源等涨超1%，国轩高科、多氟多等跌超1%，宁德时代、亿纬 锂能等回调。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万—级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300274 | 阳光电源 | 电力设备 | 1.46% | 8.84% | | 2 | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 电力设备 | -0.47% | 8.01% | | 3 | 002050 | 三花智控 | 家用电器 | 5.01% | 7.21% | | 4 | 300014 | 亿纬锂能 | 电力设备 | -0.32% | 6.07% | | ਦ | 002709 | 天赐材料 | 电力设备 | -0.85% | 4.18% | | 6 | 300450 | 先导智能 | 电力设备 | 2.15% | 3.71% | | 7 | 30 ...

首先，供应刚性与需求弹性的错配是核心矛盾。正丁烷作为炼油环节中的副产品，其供应受烷基化和气 分装置开工负荷不足的影响，表现出较强的刚性。12月上半月，部分企业因自用或检修阶段性停出，加 剧了商品资源的紧张。而顺酐的需求端则高度敏感于宏观经济和终端消费，在季节性淡季和整体经济承 压的背景下，树脂等下游行业需求萎缩，表现出极大的弹性。当刚性的成本遇上弹性且疲软的需求，价 格传导机制必然断裂。 12月正丁烷市场价格震荡走高的同时，其关键下游产品——顺酐的市场价格却持续探底，两者间形成了 显著且持续的价格倒挂。这种原材料成本与终端售价的背离，并非短期波动所能解释，而是深刻揭示了 以正丁烷-顺酐为代表的特定化工产业链条所面临的结构性困局。 成本高企与需求疲软 从数据来看，正丁烷市场在整个12月上半月呈现出"震荡整理，高位坚挺"的韧性。尽管阶段性因出货转 淡偶有回落，但在下游逢低补货、局部备料以及供应端资源偏紧的支撑下，价格迅速回归。下游买涨入 市的心态推动盘面出现溢价现象。与之形成对比的是，顺酐市场则深陷"跌跌不休"的泥潭。由于终端树 脂等行业开工率持续走低，需求极度疲软，顺酐工厂即使普遍挺价并加大减产力度，成交依然清 ...