Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - In the short term, the urea price is expected to correct due to downstream resistance and weakening spot trading, but the correction amplitude is limited due to strong agricultural demand expectations, and it remains bullish in the medium term [4]. - The demand - side drive is neutral - slightly strong due to continuous procurement by reserves and the grass - roots level, and whether the drive can go further up depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking [4]. - For the 05 contract, the fundamental resistance level is around 1,830 yuan/ton (policy pressure line), and the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton due to strong agricultural demand expectations in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,777 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,779 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 107,441 lots, the position volume of the 05 contract was 232,407 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,850 tons, and the turnover was 382.293 million yuan. The Shandong regional basis was - 27, the UR05 - UR09 spread was 23 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea manufacturers remained unchanged, such as Henan Xinlianxin at 1,770 yuan/ton, Shandong Ruixing at 1,740 yuan/ton. The price of Yankuang Xinjiang increased by 10 to 1,320 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 15 to 1,610 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions were 1,750 yuan/ton and 1,610 yuan/ton respectively, with the Shandong price down 10 [2]. - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 85.19%, up 0.47 percentage points, and the daily output was 200,580 tons, up 1,100 tons [2]. 2. Industry News - On January 7, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 0.003 million tons or 0.29% week - on - week. The inventory in some provinces decreased, including Henan, Heilongjiang, etc., while in some provinces increased, such as Anhui, Hainan, etc. [3] - The urea trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

基础化工 2026年01月11日 看好 相关研究 《氨纶或迎格局重塑，欧盟对华轮胎反倾 销暂不采取措施，不改企业出海优势- 《化工周报 25/12/15-25/12/19》》 2025/12/21 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 李彦宏 A0230125030002 liyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 陕西省或对高耗能行业实施差别化 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期回调，中期偏强 • 本周(20260101-0107)，中国尿素生产企业产能利用率83.22%，较上期涨2.93%，趋势继续上涨。周期内新增5家企业装置停车，9家停车企业 （装置）恢复生产，延续上周期的装置变化，产能利用率明显上升。中国尿素生产企业煤制产能利用率：93.06%，较上期涨3.47%；中国尿素 生产企业气制产能利用率：47.56%，较上期跌0.84%。下周，中国尿素生产企业周产能利用率预计在83-84%附近，较本期小幅提升。下个周期 暂无企业装置计划停车，2家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，在延续本周期的装置变化，下个周期产能利用率增加的概 率较大。（隆众资讯） 风险点 • 出口政策调整、煤炭价格大幅波动、海外能源价格大幅波动、海外地缘政治风险； Special ...

逢高空配 尿素周报 2026/01/10 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 01 周度评估 行情走势 图1：尿素指数 1,500.0 1,550.0 1,600.0 1,650.0 1,700.0 1,750.0 1,800.0 1,850.0 1,900.0 1,950.0 2,000.0 2025-01-01 2025-01-08 2025-01-15 2025-01-22 2025-01-29 2025-02-05 2025-02-12 2025-02-19 2025-02-26 2025-03-05 2025-03-12 2025-03-19 2025-03-26 2025-04-02 2025-04-09 2025-04-16 2025-04-23 2025-04-30 2025-05-07 2025-05-1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the implementation of differentiated pricing for high-energy-consuming industries in Shaanxi Province, which may provide new policy ideas for combating internal competition [4][22] - BOPET prices have shown a strong upward trend, with some companies still expressing intentions to raise prices, although price stability is currently key [5][24] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.24% this week, with 82.39% of stocks in the chemical sector rising [16] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) increased by 1.25% this week [19] Key Industry Insights - The Shaanxi Province's proposal for differentiated electricity pricing for high-energy-consuming industries aims to phase out backward production capacity, which could benefit leading companies in the sector [4][22][23] - BOPET prices in East China reached 7,500-7,700 RMB/ton, with an average price of 7,556.25 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 42.68 RMB/ton (0.57%) [5][24] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical [7] - Beneficiary stocks include Xinjiang Tianye and Zhongtai Chemical in the calcium carbide and chlor-alkali sectors [23][36] Product Tracking - The price of urea increased by 1.46% to an average of 1,735 RMB/ton, while phosphate rock prices remained stable [40][41] - The market for viscose staple fiber is stable, with an average price of 12,800 RMB/ton, while demand remains weak [34]

Group 1 - The European Union's carbon tariff policy officially took effect on January 1, 2026, targeting key export products such as steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, and electricity from major exporting countries [3][5] - The EU plans to expand the carbon tax to include more products like home appliances and machinery, increasing export barriers and costs for manufacturers in major exporting countries [3][5] - The EU's carbon tax system is criticized for being biased, as it only provides support through a "decarbonization fund" to European companies with clear environmental plans, excluding foreign importers [5][7] Group 2 - Surrounding countries like Bosnia, Serbia, and Montenegro, which previously exported significant amounts of electricity to the EU, are now facing increased costs and reduced profits due to the carbon tax [7] - The United States has shifted its stance on military actions in the region, urging restraint while continuing military sales to major countries, exceeding $11 billion [9] - Japan's Prime Minister, in a New Year speech, emphasized a return to strength and reform, indicating a shift in policy towards increased military spending, with the defense budget rising to 7.4 trillion yen, an increase of over 8% from the previous year [11][13] Group 3 - Major countries are responding to pressures from the US and EU, with significant impacts on various industries and public protests emerging in Japan due to trade and flight restrictions [15] - The coordinated actions of the US, EU, and Japan against major countries suggest a strategic alignment, raising concerns about the implications for international relations and trade [17]

Summary of Yara International Capital Markets Day - January 09, 2026 Company Overview - **Company**: Yara International (OTCPK:YARI.Y) - **Event**: 2026 Capital Markets Day - **Date**: January 09, 2026 - **Location**: Oslo, Norway Key Industry Insights - **Industry**: Fertilizer and Crop Nutrition - **Market Dynamics**: The nitrogen market fundamentals were discussed, highlighting the importance of nitrogen in crop production and the challenges faced by farmers in nutrient replacement [4][5][7]. Core Strategic Priorities - **Resilience and Growth**: Yara aims to strengthen resilience and grow sustainable returns through its business model and competitive advantages [3][16]. - **Safety Commitment**: Yara emphasizes a commitment to safety with a long-term ambition of zero accidents, despite a recent increase in accident rates [8][9][10][12]. - **Sustainability Goals**: The company is focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and optimizing nutrient use efficiency to support sustainable food systems [20][21][22]. Financial Performance - **Shareholder Returns**: Yara has distributed $5.5 billion to shareholders since 2020 and aims for significant growth in shareholder returns going forward [16][28]. - **EBITDA Improvement Targets**: Yara has set a target to improve EBITDA by more than $200 million by the end of 2027 and $350 million by the end of 2030 [27][28]. Production and Operational Excellence - **Production Capacity**: Yara achieved a production capacity of approximately 21 million tons of finished fertilizer, representing an 8% increase in volumes [57]. - **Investment in Production**: Significant investments are being made in expanding production capabilities, including a $50 million investment in Cartagena and a carbon capture project in Sluiskil [58][60]. Market Trends and Challenges - **Urea Market Dynamics**: The urea market saw demand-driven pricing in 2025, with strong sales in India and production issues in other regions affecting supply [38][39]. - **Natural Gas Prices**: Falling natural gas prices in Europe improved margins for producers, with expectations of increased LNG capacity in the coming years [46][47]. - **Carbon Pricing and CBAM**: The implications of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on European fertilizer prices were discussed, highlighting potential risks and uncertainties [32][33][49]. Technological Innovations - **Emission Reduction Technologies**: Yara has developed an N2O abatement catalyst that significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to the company's sustainability goals [21][22]. Conclusion - **Future Outlook**: Yara is well-positioned to navigate market uncertainties and capitalize on growth opportunities while maintaining a focus on profitability and sustainability [30][35][36].

化肥价格基本持平，其中尿素、三元复合肥均与前一周基本持平。 钢材价格稳中有降，其中螺纹钢每吨3360元，与前一周基本持平，普通中板、槽钢每吨3639元和3544 元，均下降0.2%。 成品油批发价格略有下降，其中0号柴油、95号汽油、92号汽油分别下降0.6%、0.5%和0.4%。 煤炭价格小幅下降，其中炼焦煤、动力煤、无烟块煤每吨1037元、774元和1156元，分别下降1.4%、 0.4%和0.3%。 商务大数据显示，2025年12月29日至2026年1月4日，全国生产资料市场价格比前一周(环比，下同)上涨 0.3%。 有色金属价格继续上涨，其中铜、铝、锌分别上涨2.9%、1.4%和0.7%。 橡胶价格略有上涨，其中合成橡胶、天然橡胶分别上涨0.8%和0.2%。 基础化学原料价格以涨为主，其中聚丙烯、硫酸均上涨0.2%，纯碱与前一周基本持平，甲醇下降 0.1%。 ...

行业利润尚可，有压缩预期 从利润来看，当前盘面利润仍然处于相对较好水平。按生产成本统计，2025年固定床装置尚未出现亏损现 象，新型煤化工装置利润相比老装置更高。2026年，在高供应延续的情况下，行业利润有一定压缩预期。 同时，原料端煤炭市场或维持相对宽松格局，价格重心有走低可能，这将导致尿素行业成本支撑力度减 弱，价格重心下移。 出口政策仍是重要变量 2025年，尿素行情呈下滑趋势，从期货加权价格来看，最高在1915元/吨，最低在1585元/吨，波幅 17.23%。高供应成为既定事实，平均日产量同比高约2万吨，行情波动主要取决于季节性需求以及行业政 策的变化。2026年，尿素行业仍处于产能扩张周期，而需求增加有限，预计行情以震荡偏弱为主，价格重 心或进一步下移。 需求增速不及供应，供需失衡加剧 2025年，尿素新增产能630万吨，国内最高日产量接近21万吨。2026年，产能扩张速度仍远超需求增速， 这成为市场面临的主要矛盾。据统计，2026年国内尿素新增产能将达到607万吨，年产量有望达到7500万 吨，同比增长6.56%。库存方面，2025年企业库存多数时间维持在100万吨以上，2026年预估库存压力较 ...

Group 1: Potash Market Insights - The potash supply and demand are in a tight balance, with international potash prices on the rise. China is the largest potash consumer globally, with an import dependency exceeding 60%. In 2024, China's potassium chloride production is expected to be 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while imports are projected to reach 12.633 million tons, an increase of 9.1%, marking a historical high [1] - As of December 2025, domestic potassium chloride port inventory is 2.4294 million tons, a decrease of 61.53 thousand tons compared to the same period in 2024, with a decline rate of 0.21%. The domestic potassium chloride market price averaged 3,282 yuan/ton in December, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.83% and a year-on-year increase of 30.45% [1] - Internationally, the prices of potassium chloride in Vancouver, Northwest Europe, and Jordan have risen to 317, 347, and 357 USD/ton respectively by the end of December, compared to the end of November [1] Group 2: Phosphate Rock Market Dynamics - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs. The domestic supply-demand situation is tight, with the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining in the high price range of 900 yuan/ton for over three years [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the tax-inclusive price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei is 1,040 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan, it is 970 yuan/ton, both remaining stable compared to the previous month [2] Group 3: Lithium Iron Phosphate Demand - The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China has reached 5.945 million tons per year, with a projected output of 3.82 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.59%. The market price for lithium iron phosphate is approximately 50,300 yuan/ton as of January 7, 2026, up 57.19% from the lowest price of 32,000 yuan/ton in June 2025 [3] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate and other phosphorus-containing new energy materials is significantly increasing due to the growth in downstream energy storage and power battery sectors, leading to continuous price increases [3] Group 4: Future Phosphate Resource Demand - With the global energy storage industry expanding, the demand for lithium iron phosphate is expected to rise, with projected global energy storage battery shipments increasing to 600, 800, and 983 GWh from 2025 to 2027. This corresponds to phosphate rock demand of 600, 800, and 983 million tons, accounting for 4.7%, 5.9%, and 7.0% of China's forecasted phosphate rock production [4] - The high purity requirements for lithium iron phosphate mean that the actual available high-grade phosphate resources are scarcer than the total amount, giving companies with quality mineral sources and integrated mining capabilities a strategic advantage in the new energy materials competition [4]