尿素产业日报 2025-07-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1721 | 9 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 39 | 9 4468 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 238027 | 14327 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -16392 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 500 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1800 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1780 | -20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1810 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1790 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1810 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 69 | -19 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 425 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 405 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 38 ...

7月1日，亚钾国际今日收盘30.93元，上涨2.62%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四季度每股收益总和的 比值）达到22.80倍，总市值285.81亿元。 从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的化肥行业行业市盈率平均24.89倍，行业中值22.78倍，亚钾国际排 名第16位。 截至2025年一季报，共有34家机构持仓亚钾国际，其中基金25家、其他8家、社保1家，合计持股数 44568.20万股，持股市值108.84亿元。 亚钾国际投资(广州)股份有限公司的主营业务是钾盐矿开采、钾肥生产及销售业务。公司的主要产品是 氯化钾、卤水、其他。 最新一期业绩显示，2025年一季报，公司实现营业收入12.13亿元，同比91.47%；净利润3.84亿元，同 比373.53%，销售毛利率54.12%。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)12亚钾国际22.8030.072.37285.81亿行业平均 24.8926.262.47159.87亿行业中值22.7825.211.7280.22亿1云天化7.807.551.70402.52亿2史丹利 11.7512.451.44102.86亿3新洋丰11.8113.34 ...

Core Viewpoint - The urea market in the second half of 2025 will be influenced by a mix of supply and demand factors, with export policies playing a crucial role [1] Supply Factors - In the first half of 2025, approximately 3.5 million tons of new urea production capacity will be added, leading to a long-term daily output exceeding 200,000 tons [1] - An additional 2.8 million tons of new capacity is planned for the second half, with daily output expected to surpass 210,000 tons after September [1] - By the end of the year, total production capacity is projected to increase by 6.35 million tons, an 8.22% year-on-year growth, with total output anticipated to reach 70 million tons, reflecting an 8.14% year-on-year increase [1] Demand Factors - Agricultural demand remains strong in the first half of the year, with consumption growth of 8.89% from January to May, despite some seasonal fluctuations [1] - In the second half, both agricultural and industrial demand are expected to weaken, leading to a noticeable decline in consumption growth, with an annual increase forecasted at 4.5% to 5% [1] - Total consumption is estimated to be between 63.43 million and 63.73 million tons, which is lower than the projected production [1] Export and International Market - High uncertainty in the global market affects urea costs, production, and transportation [1] - The potential easing of export policies and the resumption of supply to India will significantly impact the export landscape and market sentiment [1] - If no policy changes occur, exports are unlikely to affect domestic supply and demand, but market sentiment may still be influenced by policy dynamics [1] Inventory and Cost Factors - High inventory levels were maintained in the first half of the year, with a seasonal accumulation observed from April to June [1] - The second half is expected to see continued high inventory pressure due to increased production capacity and weakened domestic demand, posing a risk of further accumulation [1] - Coal prices have decreased, reducing cost support for urea, with coal costs down by 110 to 130 yuan per ton compared to the end of last year [1] Market Outlook - The urea market in the second half of 2025 will face multiple pressures, but there are also supporting factors such as potential easing of export policies [1] - If export policies are unexpectedly relaxed, spot prices may approach the highs seen in the first half; if policies remain unchanged or tighten, the market will revert to being driven by domestic supply and demand, putting pressure on prices [1] - Price forecasts suggest that without unexpected contradictions, urea futures prices will trend lower, fluctuating within a range of 1,500 ± 100 yuan per ton for the low end and 1,800 to 1,850 yuan per ton for the high end [1]

尿素日报 | 2025-07-01 需求支撑不足，尿素偏弱震荡 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-30，尿素主力收盘1712元/吨（-5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1810元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：88 元/吨（-5）；河南基差：68元/吨（-15）；江苏基差：98元/吨（-5）；尿素生产利润270元/吨（-10），出口利润885元 /吨（+225）。 供应端：截至2025-06-30，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为109.59 万吨（-4.01），港口样本 库存量为38.10 万吨（+8.60）。 需求端：截至2025-06-30，复合肥产能利用率30.11%（-1.71%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.21%（-1.11%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.11）。 尿素装置临时停车增加，上游开工率走低，产量有所下降。下游需求不及预期，复合肥进入季节性淡季，开工率 仍在持续走低，预计7月中旬开始提升，三聚氰胺开工低位运行，其他工业需求亦偏弱。农 ...

从现货市场看，涨幅前五名的石化产品分别为丁酮上涨101.77%、液氯上涨7.35%、丙烯酸异辛酯上涨 5.71%、页岩油上涨5.65%、苯胺上涨5.65%；跌幅前五名的石化产品分别为美国轻质原油下跌12.56%、 维生素D3下跌12.50%、布伦特原油下跌12.00%、维生素VE下跌9.33%、丙烷下跌9.17%。 上周，国际原油价格大幅下行后横盘整理。截至6月27日，纽约商品交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油期货 (WTI)主力合约结算价格为65.52美元/桶，较6月20日下跌12.56%；洲际交易所布伦特原油期货(Brent)主 力合约结算价格为67.77美元/桶，较6月20日下跌12%。 中化新网讯 上周(6月23日至27日)，化工指数全面上涨，石油指数全面下跌。 化工板块方面，化工原料指数累计上涨3.31%、化工机械指数累计上涨1.06%、化学制药指数累计上涨 1.06%、农药化肥指数累计上涨2.54%；石油板块方面，石油加工指数累计下跌0.91%、石油开采指数累 计下跌3.26%、石油贸易指数累计下跌6.96%。 从资本市场看，上周沪深两市涨幅前五名的上市化企分别为大东南上涨50%、泰和科技上涨48.09%、 ...

全球化肥市场"在过去两周里极度动荡"。自今年6月13日凌晨以色列突然对伊朗核设施发动袭击以来， 中东地区尿素出口FOB期货价格已从每吨不到400美元大幅上涨至6月27日的每吨435美元，接近约52周 以来的高点。"这表明一切都是相互联系的"，《金融时报》称，最近以色列天然气田的关闭扰乱了埃及 的化肥生产，地区紧张局势正迅速波及供应链。 据《金融时报》报道，行业分析师警告称，由于冲突和供应中断，全球超过1/5的尿素产能已停产。市 场情报和数据机构CZ洞见6月23日梳理的信息显示，伊朗尿素和氨工厂自6月14日停产，而且出于安全 原因，此前已生产的罐装氨库存均已被烧掉。尽管伊朗的尿素和氨工厂并未遭到以色列的直接打击，但 6月14日当天，伊朗两家为国内市场供气的天然气工厂被以色列袭击，这直接影响到国内工厂的运转。 此外，受以色列进口天然气中断的影响，埃及所有氮生产厂均已停工，据称要待以色列恢复供应天然气 才会复产。 英国商品研究所（CRU）警告称，以伊冲突已在事件发生后短短数日内"导致氮肥市场严重混乱"， 并"对该地区的磷酸盐、钾肥和硫磺供应构成持续威胁"。 中东地区在全球尿素和氨、氮生产中占据重要地位。CRU数据显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of futures in supporting high-quality development within the agricultural sector, particularly through the innovative models adopted by enterprises in the futures market to stabilize operations and enhance supply chain security [1]. Group 1: Company Insights - Yuntu Holdings, a leading compound fertilizer company, has established a comprehensive risk management system that integrates futures trading into its procurement, production, and sales processes, allowing it to stabilize costs and ensure supply during price fluctuations [2][3]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has seen its urea trading volume increase from 1.2 million tons in 2021 to approximately 2.45 million tons in 2024, demonstrating its proactive approach to risk management through futures [3][4]. - Huailong Group has actively participated in the urea futures market since its launch in 2019, recognizing the importance of futures tools for managing price volatility and enhancing operational efficiency [4][5]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - Yuntu Holdings employs a risk management matrix that includes buying hedges to lock in costs, production guidance based on futures prices, and selling hedges to mitigate inventory devaluation risks [3]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has innovated its business model by utilizing urea options and implementing strategies such as selling options to enhance sales profits and control procurement costs [4]. - Huailong Group has utilized futures to create virtual inventories, effectively managing procurement costs during periods of price fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration - The article highlights the increasing adoption of basis trading models among enterprises, which not only stabilizes their operations but also supports upstream and downstream partners in managing costs and securing supply [6][7]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer has successfully assisted downstream clients in locking in raw material costs through basis pricing, resulting in significant cost savings [6][7]. - The collaboration among enterprises in the futures market has led to the establishment of a new ecosystem that integrates futures trading with operational strategies, enhancing overall industry resilience [8][10]. Group 4: Future Directions - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange continues to support the development of production and finance bases, aiming to enhance the understanding and utilization of futures among industry players [8][9]. - Yuntu Holdings plans to further promote the application of urea futures and assist clients in designing risk management strategies, fostering long-term cooperative ecosystems [8][10]. - Sichuan Agricultural Fertilizer aims to improve service quality by collecting feedback from upstream and downstream enterprises, enhancing the customization of risk management solutions [10].

印尼贸易部长：放宽进口措施涵盖林业产品、塑料材料和部分化肥。 ...

盐湖股份 20250627 摘要 盐湖股份 2025 年一、二季度氯化钾和碳酸锂产销符合预期，通过优化 工艺、加强合作及套期保值确保产销衔接顺畅，成本控制良好，氯化钾 成本约 1,000-1,200 元/吨，碳酸锂完全成本加税后不到 40,000 元/吨， 均具全球成本优势。 五矿控股后，盐湖股份管理模式向央企融合，战略上，中国盐湖集团规 划至 2030 年形成 1,000 万吨钾肥、20 万吨锂盐及 3 万吨镁基材料产 能，正积极推进"一二三"三步走发展战略。 钾肥业务方面，盐湖股份以"走出钾"战略为主，计划收购高地资源、 兖矿能源在加拿大和西班牙的钾矿项目，目前正进行资源评估和技术论 证，该项目由控股股东中国五矿主导。 锂盐业务方面，盐湖股份当前任务是解决同业竞争问题，完成后计划在 青海、西藏、新疆等地收购或并购优质锂盐矿，以扩大锂盐产能。 公司看好氯化钾后市，因全球粮食需求增长及战略资源地位，中国钾肥 进口依赖度高，地缘政治影响供应，主要生产国集中，需求国分散。 Q&A 盐湖股份 2025 年的主要产品产销目标是什么？ 盐湖股份 2025 年氯化钾的产销目标均为 500 万吨左右，碳酸锂的产销目标为 4 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年06月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：市场观望情绪较浓，短期震荡格局 ➢ 国际现货：中国散装小颗粒离岸价390.01-420.01美元/吨，较上周上调30-35美元/吨；黑海小颗粒港口离岸价395.01-465.01美元/吨，上调40-60 美元/吨；波罗的海小颗粒港口离岸价390.01-460.01美元/吨，上调40-60美元/吨；中东小颗粒港口离岸396.01-458.01美元/吨，上调6-18美元/吨； 巴西小颗粒CFR价格420.01-470.01美元/吨，上调5-15美元/吨；印度到岸价399.01美元/吨，较上周持平。 ➢ 尿素现货：本周受出口消息面扰动，带动市场投机性增加，周三及周四现货成交货源。但周五至周日整体成交回归清淡，预计现货下周逐步回调。 2025年6月25日，中国尿素企业总库存量109.59万吨，较上周减少4.01万吨，环比减少3.53%。本周期国内尿素企业 ...