Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China National Chemical Corporation (中海石油化学) reported its annual performance, showing a slight increase in sales revenue but a decrease in profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company's sales revenue reached approximately 12.034 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [1] - Profit attributable to shareholders was about 974 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.04% [1] Group 2 - The revenue growth was primarily driven by fluctuations in the fertilizer and chemical product markets, as well as increased production efficiency [1] - Gross profit amounted to 1.571 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decline of 7.9%, mainly due to falling urea prices and rising costs of phosphate fertilizers [1] - Global Fortune released a report indicating that the company's performance in 2025 may face some pressure, but it maintains a dividend payout ratio above 50% due to ample funds and confidence in meeting state-owned enterprise market value management requirements [1]

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：期现市场均降温 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 20 日 【行情分析】 今日低开低走，日内收跌。工厂报价继续有走弱预期，情绪面及盘面对现 货端市场支撑均呈现匮乏状态，成交活跃度较低。河北、山东及河南尿素工厂 出厂报价范围在 1800-1840 元/吨。尿素日产量位于 21-22 万吨左右波动，月底 前国储货源完成投放，市场供应充裕，虽近两日上游工厂临时停车检修增加， 但影响相对微弱。本期复合肥工厂开工负荷继续增长，但河北地区依然受环保 预警的限制，暂未出现规模性复产，预计下周预警解除后产能利用率将达到 50%以上。农业需求收尾，三四月份处于春耕旺季，后续工业需求复合肥厂托底 尿素，能化板块强势带动下游拿货情绪，叠加春耕旺季自身的支撑，库存继续 大幅下滑，除山西、重庆外，大部分地区均表现为库存去化。今日能化板块整 体降温，尿素本身季节性供应紧平衡状态中，海外因素影响力小，回吐前期涨 幅后，预计高位震荡为主，但近两日盘面降温略影响下游采购积极性，预计回 调后依然高位震荡为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1847 元/吨开盘, 低开低走，日内收跌，最 终收于 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - L: Bullish [1][10] - PP: Bullish [1][14] - PVC: Bullish [1][18] - PTA: Bullish [4][21] - MEG: Bullish [4][24] - Methanol: Bullish [5][29] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [5][33] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [1][36] Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts have led to supply shortages and cost increases in the energy and chemical sectors, driving up prices. - The fundamentals of various products are improving, with supply-side reductions and demand-side recoveries expected in the coming months. - The market is closely watching geopolitical developments, cost trends, and policy changes, which will have a significant impact on prices. Summaries by Related Catalogs L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,916 yuan/ton, up 5.8% from the previous day. The weighted volume increased by 29.2% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Spot prices lagged behind, and the basis weakened significantly. The cost of ethylene remained strong. Some cracking units at home and abroad reduced their loads due to a shortage of raw materials, and the domestic parking ratio was 12.3%. The planned maintenance volume in March increased. Geopolitical conflicts raised the price center. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][10]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 8,628 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The weighted volume increased slightly by 0.2% [12]. - **Core Logic**: Propane prices continued to soar, compressing PDH profits. The supply was strongly supported. The attack on the South Pars gas field increased the expected supply reduction. The current parking ratio was at a high of 22%. The supply-demand pattern was favorable. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,860 yuan/ton, up 2.2% from the previous day. The weighted volume increased by 15.2% [16]. - **Core Logic**: The US dollar quotation increased by 25% month-on-month, and the external market was strongly supported. Geopolitical conflicts have not been resolved, and the shortage of raw material ethylene has intensified the expected load reduction of global ethylene-based PVC units. Some domestic ethylene-based units have started to reduce their loads. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][18]. PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day. The PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton [19]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continued, and there were no obvious signs of easing. The TA05 closing price was at a high in the past year, with a backwardation structure. The supply side saw domestic units reducing their loads, while the downstream demand seasonally recovered. The inventory increased, and the cost side was favorable. The PX fundamentals continued to improve. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term, and the supply-demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [4][20]. MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 4,729 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan from the previous day. The weighted production cost was 5,794.5 yuan/ton, and the production profit was -1,511.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation of ethylene glycol has been repaired, with a backwardation structure. Both domestic and overseas units significantly reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in March. The downstream demand seasonally recovered, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease from March to April. The cost side was affected by geopolitical conflicts, with oil prices fluctuating strongly and coal prices stabilizing [4][23]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol market showed a strong trend, with the main contract at a high level in the past year [27]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical games dominated the market trend, and the fundamentals were expected to improve. The valuation was generally high, with a backwardation structure. The domestic methanol load slightly declined but remained at a high level, while overseas units reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease from February to March. The demand side was weakly stable, and the port inventory was rapidly depleted [5][27]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,847 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit was 145.01 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small particle basis was 13 yuan/ton [30]. - **Core Logic**: The absolute valuation of urea was not low, and the overall start-up load continued to increase. The demand side had a weak reality but strong expectations, with winter storage demand weakening and industrial demand being weak. The export of urea and fertilizers was relatively good. The social inventory continued to accumulate. Under the background of "export quotas" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices," there was a ceiling and a floor for urea prices. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5][31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,465 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the previous day [35]. - **Core Logic**: The factory inventory declined from a high level, and the basis strengthened. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East intensified the expected load reduction of overseas and domestic ethylene-based chlor-alkali integrated units. The Tianjin chlor-alkali unit rapidly reduced its load, but the domestic overall maintained a high load. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volume. The market is waiting for further fundamental guidance [1][36].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 03 月 20 日 尿素：宽幅震荡 | 杨鈜汉 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,859 | 1,855 | 4 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,873 | 1,865 | 8 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 247,496 | 173,676 | 73820 | | （05合约） | | 持仓量 | （手） | 228,441 | 227,858 | 583 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 8,499 | 8,499 | 0 | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 228,441 | 227,858 | 583 | | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - In late February 2026, military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, resulting in significant global energy and chemical market turmoil, with oil prices rising from $70.75 per barrel to $91.98 per barrel, an increase of 30% [1] Group 1: Impact on Refining and Supply - Concerns over future raw material supply have led Asian refineries to reduce operating loads, with major integrated refining companies in Korea and China planning to lower their crude distillation unit loads due to supply tightness [2] - The Strait of Hormuz is critical, accounting for 35% of global urea, 33% of synthetic ammonia, and 45% of sulfur transportation; alternative transport routes can only cover about 20% of normal capacity, potentially disrupting the global fertilizer supply-demand balance if Middle East uncertainties persist [2] Group 2: Price Spread Changes in Chemical Products - From February 28 to March 12, 2026, price spreads for coal-based ethylene, acrylic acid, phthalic anhydride, purified phosphoric acid, MMA, and coal-based propylene expanded significantly, with increases of 1009%, 465%, 411%, 131%, 117%, and 104% respectively, all exceeding 1000 yuan per ton [3] - Conversely, price spreads for ethylene oxide, polyethylene, polypropylene, and ethylene glycol decreased significantly, with reductions of -89%, -272%, -321%, and -1217% respectively [3]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market shows high - level fluctuations. With the supply - demand dual - strong logic, attention should be paid to the verification of the peak - season demand for spring plowing. In the short term, it will remain in high - level oscillations. The agricultural demand is coming to an end, and in the future, the compound fertilizer plants' industrial demand will support the urea market. The strong performance of the energy and chemical sector drives the downstream purchasing sentiment, and combined with the support of the spring plowing peak season, the inventory continues to decline significantly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The urea market opened high and closed low today, ending the day with a decline. The upstream factory quotes showed a downward trend, and trading volume decreased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,800 to 1,840 yuan/ton. The daily urea output on Feiyitong exceeded 210,000 tons. The state - reserve supplies will be fully released by the end of the month, resulting in an abundant market supply. Although the number of temporary shutdowns for maintenance at upstream factories has increased in the past two days, the impact is relatively weak. The operating load of compound fertilizer factories continued to increase this period, but the Hebei region is still restricted by environmental protection warnings and has not seen large - scale resumption of production. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will reach over 50% after the warnings are lifted next week [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1,870 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, ending the day with a decline. It finally closed at 1,859 yuan/ton, forming a negative candlestick, with a change of - 0.32% and a position of 228,441 lots (+583 lots). Among the top 20 main position - holding seats of the main contract, the long position decreased by 1,379 lots, and the short position increased by 2,589 lots. Specifically, Founder CIFCO had a net long position of +297 lots, Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of - 319 lots; Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1,128 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of - 224 lots [2]. Spot - The upstream factory quotes showed a downward trend today, and trading volume decreased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,800 to 1,840 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3. Warehouse Receipts - On March 19, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,499, remaining the same as the previous trading day [3]. 3.4. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes declined, while the futures closing price rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day. The basis for the May contract was 4 yuan/ton (-1 yuan/ton) [7]. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 19, 2026, the national daily urea output was 216,800 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 86.43% [8]. Enterprise Inventory Data - As of March 20, 2026, according to Longzhong Information, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a decrease of 148,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 15.53%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.29 days, an increase of 0.23 days from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [12]. Downstream Data - From March 13 to March 20, according to Longzhong Information, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 49.97%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 59.31%, an increase of 5.96 percentage points from last week [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapid increase in urea prices is the result of the combined effects of geopolitical risk premiums and cost drivers. However, due to high supply and price - stabilizing policies, the increase in urea futures prices is limited, showing a pattern of multiple rallies followed by pull - backs [7]. - In the short term, urea prices may remain volatile at high levels due to supply - chain concerns and cost support. In the long term, it is necessary to be wary of the ebbing of sentiment after the easing of the Middle - East situation and the pressure of high domestic supply [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Recently, the main urea futures contract has maintained a high - level volatile trend. On March 9, affected by the sudden escalation of the Middle - East situation, the urea 2605 futures contract opened and quickly hit the daily limit, reaching a new high since October 2024. It then opened the limit in the afternoon and pulled back, with a closing price of 1905 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton or 5.48% compared to the previous day's settlement price. In the following trading days, the urea market repeatedly rallied and then pulled back, maintaining a high - level volatile trend [1]. Driving Factors Middle - East Geopolitical Conflict - The escalation of the US - Israel - Iran situation is the core cause of the recent increase in urea prices. The Middle East is the largest urea - exporting region, with an annual export volume of about 20 million tons, accounting for 35% of global seaborne trade. About 17 million tons of goods need to be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and 3 million tons come directly from Iran. The risk of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has increased significantly, and shipowners refuse to dispatch ships while insurance companies cancel coverage, posing an unprecedented threat to global urea supply. Additionally, Qatar Energy Company plans to stop urea production and suspend liquefied natural gas exports, further intensifying international supply pressure [3]. - The current tense geopolitical situation has directly boosted domestic urea export expectations. The market expects India to issue a new round of tenders to hedge supply risks. The interruption of energy and fertilizer supply in the Middle East has affected food production safety. If the situation deteriorates, rising food prices may trigger a global food crisis, strengthening the bullish logic for urea from a macro perspective [4]. Energy Price Increase - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a rapid transmission of risk - aversion and bullish sentiment through the cost side. After the incident, the prices of core energy products such as international crude oil and natural gas soared, driving up the prices of domestic alternative energy sources such as coal. Coal and natural gas are the core raw materials for urea production. For international urea production, natural gas is the main raw material, accounting for over 30% of the production cost; for domestic urea production, coal is the main raw material, accounting for about 50% of the production cost. The overall increase in energy prices has significantly raised the cost lines of domestic and foreign urea, providing strong cost support [5]. - The overall strength of the energy commodity sector has formed an obvious linkage effect. The strong bullish sentiment has led large - scale funds to concentrate on chemical commodities. As one of the core products of the coal - chemical industry, urea has also been favored by overflowing funds, further amplifying the price increase [5]. High Supply and Price - Stabilizing Policies - In terms of supply and demand, the current weekly urea output is 1.51 million tons, and the operating rate is 92%, at the highest level in recent years. The commercial reserve of urea was released ahead of schedule in March, resulting in sufficient short - term supply. On the demand side, the demand for green - turning fertilizers in the agricultural sector has moderately increased, while the operating rates of the compound fertilizer and panel industries are still gradually recovering, and industrial demand is relatively weak. The overall supply - demand situation cannot effectively support a further increase in urea prices [6]. - From a policy perspective, during key agricultural periods, domestic policies prioritize ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. Under this background, it is difficult to issue urea export quotas in the short term. Although international urea prices have risen significantly, domestic low - price urea cannot be exported due to export policy restrictions, which is the main reason why the price gap between domestic and foreign urea has not narrowed [6]. Future Outlook - Key future concerns include the evolution of the geopolitical situation, cost - side fluctuations, export policy orientation, and the actual recovery of domestic downstream demand [9]. - In the short term, urea prices may remain volatile at high levels. In the long term, it is necessary to be wary of the ebbing of sentiment after the easing of the Middle - East situation and the pressure of high domestic supply. If domestic export policies continue to tighten, the price gap between domestic and foreign urea will be difficult to narrow, and the increase in international urea prices will be isolated by policies and difficult to be transmitted to the domestic market. During key agricultural periods, the government may take measures such as timely releasing commercial reserves to deal with high urea prices [9].

Core Viewpoint - CF Industries' stock has experienced a significant increase due to rising fertilizer prices driven by supply disruptions in the Middle East, but Mizuho analysts caution that this price rally may not be sustainable [1] Group 1: Company Performance - CF Industries' stock price has surged amid the current market conditions, reflecting a strong response to the increased demand for fertilizers [1] - The company's performance is closely tied to fluctuations in fertilizer prices, which have been positively impacted by geopolitical events [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Fertilizer prices have jumped significantly due to supply chain disruptions in the Middle East, indicating a volatile market environment [1] - Analysts are monitoring the sustainability of the current price increases, suggesting that the fertilizer market may face challenges ahead [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impacts of the ongoing conflict in Iran on global commodity markets, emphasizing that prolonged conflict could lead to significant supply chain disruptions and price volatility across various sectors, including energy, metals, and agriculture [2][9]. Energy Sector - Bank of America (BofA) views the Strait of Hormuz as a critical chokepoint for oil and refined products, with a potential restoration leading to price declines, while a slow recovery could necessitate higher risk premiums for oil pricing [5][12]. - The report outlines four scenarios for oil prices by 2026, with a base case average of $77.50 per barrel, and extreme scenarios suggesting prices could peak at $240 per barrel if the conflict extends [9][11]. - The report indicates that the refined oil market may experience even more severe impacts than crude oil due to a lack of strategic reserves [11]. Metals Sector - The aluminum market is projected to face significant deficits, with estimates of 1.2 million tons in a quick resolution scenario, escalating to 5 million tons if the conflict extends into the second half of 2026, with prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ton [8][15]. - Copper production may be affected by sulfur supply disruptions, with a baseline deficit of 45,300 tons expected by 2026, which could expand significantly if sulfur supplies are cut off [16]. - Zinc is expected to remain in surplus this year, limiting price increases, while nickel prices are projected to range between $15,000 and $20,000 per ton [8][16]. Agricultural Sector - The report highlights that fertilizer prices, particularly urea, have surged by 30%-40% due to supply chain disruptions, with the Gulf region contributing significantly to global urea exports [21][22]. - Corn is identified as the most vulnerable crop, with U.S. planting area expected to decrease, potentially leading to higher prices above $6 per bushel if nitrogen fertilizer shortages persist [22]. - Wheat is positioned as a hedge against food security, with price forecasts adjusted upward due to the ongoing conflict and its impact on supply chains [22]. Broader Commodity Impacts - The report emphasizes that the conflict's impact is not limited to oil and gas but extends to chemicals and coal, with potential shifts in energy consumption patterns as countries may revert to coal if LNG supplies are constrained [20]. - The agricultural sector is expected to see systemic risks due to concentrated urea supply chains, with significant implications for global food prices and availability [21][22]. - Gold prices are projected to reach $6,000 per ounce under certain scenarios, particularly if high inflation and economic stagnation persist [25][27]. Market Dynamics - BofA notes that the market has not fully priced in several factors, including the volatility of oil and aluminum, suggesting that long-term contracts may reflect the true impact of supply disruptions more accurately [29]. - The report indicates that energy prices could trigger a global recession if they exceed $160 per barrel, leading to significant declines in metal prices [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea price continued to decline today mainly due to the dissipation of previous emotional interference, and the market has basically returned to the fundamentals. Currently, both supply and demand are strengthening marginally. Although the state reserve supply has impacted the market and the price has reached a high - range position, the strong support during the peak season is expected to lead to high - level fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The urea market opened low and moved lower today, with an intraday decline of nearly 2%. The upstream factory quotes were stable, but the trading activity decreased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan ranged from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton. By the end of the month, the state reserve supply will be fully released, and the market supply is abundant. Although the number of temporary shutdowns and overhauls of upstream factories has increased in the past two days, the impact is relatively weak. The downstream demand includes both agricultural and industrial sectors. The terminal sales of compound fertilizers are smooth, and although the production has gradually recovered, the finished product inventory is still being depleted. The wheat top - dressing for greening has basically ended, but subsequent crops such as spring corn still require a large amount of high - nitrogen compound fertilizers. Despite the squeeze on factory profits due to rising raw material prices, high demand corresponds to high supply. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the energy - chemical sector has strongly driven the downstream purchasing sentiment. Coupled with the support of the spring plowing peak season, the inventory has continued to decline significantly, and most regions except Shanxi and Chongqing have seen inventory depletion [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1,878 yuan/ton, opened low and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 2%, and finally closed at 1,855 yuan/ton, forming a negative line with a change rate of - 1.70%. The trading volume was 227,858 lots (- 16,877 lots). Among the top twenty main positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 4,858 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8,059 lots. Among them, GF Futures had a net long position of - 858 lots, China Merchants Futures had a net long position of + 715 lots, Yide Futures had a net short position of - 4,162 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of + 1,755 lots. On March 18, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,499, a net increase of 444 compared with the previous trading day, with 444 from Zhongnong Cloud Warehouse [2]. 3.2.2. Spot - The upstream factory quotes were stable, but the trading activity decreased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan ranged from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1. Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes and the futures closing price both declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was - 23 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [6]. 3.3.2. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 18, 2026, the daily national urea production was 215,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 86.17% [8]. 3.3.3. Enterprise Inventory Data - According to Longzhong Information, as of March 20, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a decrease of 148,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 15.53%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.29 days, an increase of 0.23 days from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [11].