证券代码：600340 证券简称：华夏幸福 公告编号：2025-041 华夏幸福基业股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 华夏幸福基业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）目前正在持续推进《债 务重组计划》及《债务重组计划补充方案》，推动金融债务重组协议签订等各项 工作。公司根据前述计划及方案与债权人签署相关协议后，涉及债权人豁免或调 减公司对其的债务（包括本金、未支付利息及罚息），本次业绩预告中已考虑相 关影响； ? 预计公司 2025 年半年度将实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-75 亿元 到-55 亿元； ? 预计公司 2025 年半年度将实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损 益的净利润为-83 亿元到-63 亿元。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日。 （二）业绩预告情况 属于上市公司股东的净利润为-75 亿元到-55 亿元； 的净利润为-83 亿元到-63 亿元。 （三）本期业绩预告是否经注册会计师审计：否。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is expected to see a significant decline in delivery volumes after 2024, marking the end of a peak delivery period driven by the "guarantee delivery" policy [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The national housing completion area from 2021 to 2024 was reported as 101,412 million square meters, 86,222 million square meters, 99,831 million square meters, and 73,743 million square meters respectively, indicating a rebound in 2023 after a decline in 2022 [1] - The delivery volume for real estate companies in the first half of 2025 is expected to drop significantly, with a general decline of over 50% in the number of units delivered [1] - The top 10 real estate companies accounted for 38.08 million units delivered, representing 56.46% of the total deliveries from 50 companies [1] Group 2: Company Focus - Sunac - Sunac delivered 186,000 units in 2022, 312,000 units in 2023, and 170,000 units in 2024, totaling over 668,000 units delivered [2] - In the first half of this year, Sunac delivered 15,000 units, including notable projects such as Xi'an Sunac Lan Yue Fu and Chongqing Chang Le Ya Song [2] - For 2025, Sunac aims to deliver over 50,000 units, with expectations to complete all guarantee delivery tasks by the end of the year [2] - The company is transitioning into a new development phase characterized by debt restructuring, stabilized sales, and the completion of guarantee delivery tasks [2]

Core Viewpoint - China State Construction One Group's investment development company (referred to as "China State Construction One") is focusing on urban renewal projects in Shanghai as a breakthrough strategy in the competitive land auction market [1][6]. Group 1: Project Acquisition - China State Construction One has secured the historical preservation project for the Dinghai Community land in Yangpu District for a price of 2.257 billion yuan [1][5]. - The Dinghai Community land covers an area of 21,210.66 square meters, with a planned use for residential purposes and a floor area ratio of 1.4, allowing for a total above-ground construction area of 29,694.92 square meters [2][4]. - Since 2023, China State Construction One has also acquired multiple other historical preservation projects in Yangpu District, indicating a strategic focus on urban renewal [5]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The company aims to enhance its presence in core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, with a goal of achieving a sales scale of over 100 billion yuan [8]. - The urban renewal strategy is seen as a response to the current market conditions, where core urban areas in Shanghai are experiencing rising property prices and strong demand for improvement projects [6][7]. - China State Construction One's chairman, Xu Chao, has expressed a rational attitude towards the company's rapid growth and the "dark horse" label in the real estate sector [1][8]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Goals - Urban renewal projects present challenges such as long investment cycles and high capital costs, requiring firms to have strong financial capabilities and asset management strategies [7]. - The company has set a target to rank among the top 20 real estate firms in China, with a current ranking of 19th based on a transaction amount of 42.41 billion yuan in 2024 [8][9]. - China State Construction One is actively adjusting its market strategy to focus on high-potential cities, forming a new market pattern in regions like Beijing, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Greater Bay Area [8].

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 07 月 11 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（7.7-7.11） 稳就业新政出台，美国关税隐忧再现 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：南向通扩容助人民币国际化，多项稳就业举措出台。7月 7日，国家外 汇管理局统计数据显示：截至 6月末，外汇储备创近十年新高，央行连续 8个 月增持黄金，未来央行或继续增持黄金，推动我国国际储备资产多元化，在增 强风险防御能力的同时，为推进人民币国际化创造有利条件；8 日，中国人民 银行和香港金管局宣布了数项债券通优化扩容的措施，这将推动人民币国际化 进程，并促进境内债券市场基础设施与国际接轨，助力金融市场协同发展；9 日，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题首场新闻 发布会，"十四五"规划确定的战略任务全面落地，内需始终是中国经济发展 的主动力和稳定锚；同日，国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步加大稳就业政策支 持力度的通知》，从 7个方面提出政策举措，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期，推动经济高质量发展。 海外：美国关税再生波澜，选举预期引发日债波动。当地时间 7月 7 ...

来源：金融界 经营范围含居民日常生活服务；物业管理；商业综合体管理服务；住宅水电安装维护服务；专业保洁、 清洗、消毒服务；城乡市容管理；城市绿化管理；园林绿化工程施工；环境卫生公共设施安装服务；机 动车充电销售；停车场服务；共享自行车服务；集中式快速充电站；新能源汽车换电设施销售；电动汽 车充电基础设施运营；蓄电池租赁；公共事业管理服务；节能管理服务；日用品销售；人工智能行业应 用系统集成服务；数字技术服务；安防设备销售；安全技术防范系统设计施工服务；公共安全管理咨询 服务；家政服务；养老服务；房地产经纪；住房租赁；非居住房地产租赁；供应链管理服务；新能源汽 车整车销售；道路货物运输站经营；新兴能源技术研发；物联网技术服务；物联网技术研发；物联网应 用服务；固体废物治理；再生资源回收（除生产性废旧金属）；合同能源管理；资源再生利用技术研 发；机械设备租赁；采购代理服务；储能技术服务；光伏发电设备租赁；光伏设备及元器件销售；配电 开关控制设备销售；智能输配电及控制设备销售；太阳能发电技术服务；电子、机械设备维护（不含特 种设备）；技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广。（除依法须经批准的项 ...

"2026年之后交付的项目，基本对应的是2022年后销售的新房，由于严格执行了预售资金封闭式管理， 保交付难度随之极速降低，房企可腾出更多资源与精力聚焦业务发展。"有机构分析师表示，对融创中 国来说，率先完成保交付收官，意味着可以卸下重任轻装上阵，加速回归可持续经营发展轨道。 保交付任务的完成，也将进一步稳定房地产信心。在当下市场环境中，保交付才能保信心，交付力依然 是房企赢得购房者、金融机构、政府等各方信任的核心能力。数据显示，6月份，在百强房企销售额有 所下降的背景下，融创当月销售额环比上升54%至75.5亿元，北京、上海两地壹号院更同时成为全市甚 至全国的热销标杆。 随着这场持续三年的保交付攻坚战迎来收官，融创中国亦有望携债务重组完成、销售回稳与保交付收官 三大标志性成果，迈入全新的发展阶段。 "在本轮行业深度调整中，融创中国三年多来坚定完成了近70万套的交付任务，这是一份重量级的成绩 单。"一位机构分析师表示。 融创中国多地项目在上半年保交付中兑现了较高品质的落地。此外，在2022年-2024年间，公司分别实 现交付18.6万套、31.2万套、17万套，累计交付超过66.8万套，为行业源源不断贡献出北 ...

Group 1 - The overall financing environment for the real estate industry remains loose in the first half of 2025, with credit bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS) becoming important channels for debt financing [1] - In the first half of 2025, the real estate industry achieved bond financing of 254.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%, but the decline is less than the previous year [1] - Credit bonds are the main source of financing, accounting for 60.1% of total financing, with an average issuance term of 3.92 years, and 58.4% of the bonds have a term of over 3 years, an increase of 12.8 percentage points from the previous year [1] Group 2 - Leading companies like Poly Developments and China Resources Land maintain funding advantages due to strong credit ratings and resilient sales, with some companies achieving sales exceeding 100 billion yuan [2] - The issuance of ABS in the real estate sector reached 95.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, accounting for nearly 38% of total bond financing [2] - The average financing rate for ABS decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 2.77%, indicating a growing preference among investors for cash flow-backed assets [2] Group 3 - The issuance of overseas bonds remains low, with a total of 5.73 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for less than 3% of total financing, and the average interest rate for overseas bonds is high at 9.73% [3] - The average interest rate for bond financing in the real estate industry dropped to 2.83%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.28 percentage points, with credit bonds averaging 2.61% and ABS averaging 2.77% [3] - The real estate policy environment is expected to remain loose in the second half of 2025, with companies advised to plan cash flow in advance and explore various financing channels [3]

01 舆论共识与政策转向的背景 1985年"广场协议"签订后，日本企业凭借大幅升值的日元去美国收购不动产，日本国内房价猛涨， 泡沫急剧扩大，日本房地产市场进入前所未有的狂热状态，催生了一场巨大的资产泡沫。那时报纸 杂志充斥着"日本第一"、"买下美国"等民族主义情绪高涨的报道，进一步强化了民众对经济实力的 过度自信，银行甚至接受土地作为唯一抵押品无限制放贷。198 9年日本三菱地所斥资收购纽约洛 克菲勒中心的交易，被欧美媒体渲染为"日本威胁论"的象征，而在日本国内则被吹捧为国家崛起的 标志。这种舆论环境使任何质疑泡沫风险的声音都被边缘化，一度形成了全社会对房地产投机行为 的集体盲从。 1990年美国进入房地产周期性衰退，房价急剧下跌，到美国购买不动产的日本企业都折损了一半以 上，同时造成日本国内地价与房价下跌。这又在日本社会催生了谴责"房地产泡沫"的呼声。在社会 共识的急剧转向中，日本媒体起到了推波助澜的作用。舆论将房地产业描述为"吞噬实体经济的癌变 组织"。主流报刊如《朝日新闻》则带头批判房地产"抽干了制造业的血液"，将"产业空心化"归咎 于房地产。社会活动家甚至发起"反不动产运动"，称炒房者为"国贼"，要求 ...

Core Viewpoint - Greenland Holdings' Hong Kong subsidiary is involved in virtual asset-related matters, but its revenue contribution for 2024 is less than 1% of the company's total revenue, indicating minimal impact on overall operations [1] Group 1 - Greenland Holdings issued an announcement regarding unusual stock trading fluctuations [1] - Recent media reports highlighted the involvement of the company's Hong Kong subsidiary in virtual asset-related activities [1] - The company conducted a self-examination and confirmed that the subsidiary's revenue for 2024 will account for less than 1% of total revenue [1]

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to the parent company of between -280 million and -240 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -298 million and -258 million yuan [1][2] - Compared to the same period last year, the loss is expected to increase by 97.37 million to 137.37 million yuan [1][2] Group 2 - The previous year's net profit attributable to the parent company was -142.63 million yuan, with a total profit of -224.29 million yuan [2] - The company reported a loss per share of -0.41 yuan in the previous year [2] - The primary reasons for the expected loss include a decrease in gross profit from real estate business and an increase in interest expenses related to real estate projects [2]